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The Line: Battle for House Taking Shape

Slowly but surely the House playing field is starting to take shape.

Democrats have scored early recruiting successes in Missouri's 6th District and Ohio's 16th, while Republicans got their men in Georgia's 8th District and California's 11th.

But we're still far from knowing how many seats will be in play come November 2008, as retirements, which usually come in droves following a change in party control, have not yet begun in earnest. Only four House members have announced that they will be vacating their seats at the end of the current term -- Democratic Reps. Mark Udall (Colo.), Luis Gutierrez (Ill.) and Tom Allen (Maine), and Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.).

There are many more potential retirees, so until we know who's staying and who's going (not until next year at the earliest) it's hard to predict potential gains and losses. Thus, the House races listed on The Line remain listed alphabetically. Use the comments section to offer your thoughts on the races we included and those we missed.

To the Line!

Arizona's 1st District (Currently Republican): Rep. Rick Renzi (R) has weathered the first wave of calls for him to resign after a business run by his wife was raided in April by the FBI. But he -- and Republicans -- are far from out of the woods. The GOP's best hope is that Renzi decides against seeking reelection and quickly moves off the national radar screen. Democrats are excited about their chances at this district, which was drawn following the 2000 Census to be a toss-up between the two parties. Dems caught a break recently when 2006 nominee Ellen Simon, whose campaign was sidetracked by ethical questions surrounding her husband, suddenly dropped her plans for a rematch. Former television anchor Mary Kim Titla is in the race on the Democratic side. State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, former Casa Grande Mayor Bob Mitchell and attorney Jim Ledbetter are also mentioned as potential Democratic candidates.

California's 4th (R): The FBI raid on his wife's business (no, this is not an accidental repeat of the Renzi write-up) has placed Rep. John Doolittle (R) in significant political peril. Doolittle has charged that the raid and the Department of Justice's investigation into the activities of him and his wife are a sign of a department gone wild as Attorney General Alberto Gonzales fights for his political life. But Doolittle has given hints that if the investigation isn't cleared up he may not seek reelection in 2008. Even if he does, he will likely face a serious primary challenge, with Air Force reservist Eric Eglund's name already being mentioned. For 2006 nominee Charlie Brown. (D) to win in this Republican-heavy district, he needs Doolittle on the ballot or the specter of the current congressman looming over the eventual GOP nominee.

California's 11th (Currently Democratic): Republican chances to take back this seat increased over the past month as former Rep. Richard Pombo (R) took himself out of the running and former state Assemblyman Dean Andal (R) formally announced his candidacy. Andal is the preferred candidate of state and national Republicans, while Pombo was widely seen as the one Republican candidate who would almost assuredly lose to Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) in 2008. Without Pombo in the race, the contest will turn on McNerney's first term in Congress. Republicans are trying to paint him as a liberal ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.). This GOP leaning seat (President Bush won it with 54 percent of the vote in 2004) should be a top pick-up opportunity for Republicans next November, but it would be a mistake to underestimate the power of incumbency.

Florida's 16th (D): Democrats assured us that Rep. Tim Mahoney's victory in 2006 wasn't a fluke prompted by the scandal surrounding former Rep. Mark Foley (R). But Mahoney sure looks to us like he is struggling to get his footing. "I think there was a concern that I wasn't happy in Congress.," Mahoney recently told The Hill newspaper. "Very candidly, this isn't the greatest job I've had." Ugh. You can bet that quote will reappear at some point during next fall's campaign. The best news for Mahoney is that Republicans seem headed for a primary fight between Pittsburgh Steelers heir Tom Rooney, state Rep. Gayle Harrell and Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche.

Georgia's 8th (D): Republicans scored perhaps their biggest recruiting victory of the cycle to date by convincing Major Gen. Richard Goddard to challenge Rep. Jim Marshall (D) in this Macon-area district. National Republicans insist that Goddard has long been seen as the candidate best positioned to defeat Marshall but has resisted past recruitment attempts. On its face the 8th district is a ripe Republican target. President Bush carried it with 61 percent of the vote in 2004 and Marshall beat former Rep. Mac Collins (R) by less than 2,000 votes last November. Could a Goddard candidacy convince Marshall to take a run at Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R)?

Kansas's 2nd: (D): Seeking to establish himself as the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary race, former Rep. Jim Ryun released a poll late last month that showed him with a 61 percent to 27 percent lead over state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. We have no reason to doubt the veracity of the survey but expect this primary to be one of the most expensive and tightly fought in the country next year. The nastier the better for Rep. Nancy Boyda (D), who faces a tough reelection race in a district that gave Bush a 20-point victory in 2004.

New Mexico's 1st (R): Cycle after cycle national Democrats say they have finally found the magic formula to defeat Rep. Heather Wilson. In 2002 and 2004, it was Richard Romero, the president of the state Senate. In 2006 it was Patricia Madrid, who was Hispanic, had been elected statewide and was a woman. And yet Wilson is still on Congress. Her Albuquerque-based seat is moving away from Republicans (Al Gore won it with 48 percent in 2000 while John Kerry took 51 percent four years later), and it remains to be seen how politically salient Wilson's role in the U.S. Attorneys scandal will be by next fall. Democrats seem pleased with the candidacy of Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich, who will enjoy strong backing from the organization of Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.).

Ohio's 16th (R): Democrats believe that 82-year-old Rep. Ralph Regula's (R) time in Congress is up. The last time Regula dipped below 60 percent of the vote was 1990, but the district is potentially competitive -- President Bush carried it by 8 points in 2004 after winning it by 11 in 2000. Regula has given no sign either way about his reelection plans, but Democrats have lined up state Sen. John Boccieri as their candidate whether or not Regula runs for reelection. It's hard to imagine a worse political environment for Republicans than Ohio in 2006, but Democrats believe 2008 is likely to be more of the same. Time will tell.

Pennsylvania's 10th (D): It would be quicker to list the Republicans not thinking of running against freshman Rep. Chris Carney (D) than to name those who are considering a bid. The preferred GOP candidate is U.S Attorney Tom Marino, who confirmed to Talking Points Memo yesterday that he was considering a bid. If not Marino, who would have to resign his post to run, Republicans will almost assuredly find a serious candidate in a district President Bush carried by 20 points in 2004.

Texas's 22nd (D): Democrats got something of a break earlier this week when Rep. Nick Lampson (D) decided not to consider a run against Sen. John Cornyn (R). Lampson is probably the only Democrat who has a chance to hold this strongly Republican Houston-area seat (he won in 2006 when a ballot snafu led to Republicans failing to remove Tom DeLay's name from the ballot, forcing them to run a write-in candidate). Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, who was the GOP's write-in candidate, is back for another race. Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace, Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt and state Rep. Robert Talton are all mentioned. Without DeLay to kick around, Lampson will have a fight on his hands.

By Chris Cillizza |  June 1, 2007; 8:00 AM ET  | Category:  House , The Line
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Posted by: kdavfnp vhwdyagoe | June 21, 2007 10:24 AM

If you run on a platform of fiscal responsibility and promise unprecedented openness regarding Congress' pork barrel practices, pass rules on your first day of being in the majority to clearly identify "earmarks" and then the House Appropriations Committee chairman orders fellow democrats to keep the bills free of such earmarks until it is too late for critics to effectively challenge them, should we really care about who gets elected? The House-Senate compromise bills due for final action in September cannot be amended and are subject to only one hour of debate, precluding challenges to individual projects. Chairman Obey insists he is reluctantly taking the step because Appropriations Committee members and staff have not had enough time to fully review the 36,000 earmark requests that have flooded the committee. What Obey is doing runs counter to new rules that Democrats promised would make such spending decisions more open. I guess none of those 36,000 requests needs any review. This is your NEW DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS in action!

Posted by: Dave! | June 3, 2007 10:20 AM

David Wallace took himself out of consideration in Texas-22.

Posted by: J. | June 2, 2007 11:42 PM

"Lynn Swann will run for congress against Jason Altmire ansd he will kcik his butt!"

Just like he kicked Ed Rendell's butt? His campaign was a laughingstock. That district only voted for Melissa Hart because they liked her. Once they had no reason to keep supporting her, out she went.

I think Mahoney is gone (and he will probably be happy to go). Other than that, I don't know if there are any surefire losers of the Democrat freshmen class.

I can't count how many times the press and the GOP have said Jim Marshall will be gone. In 2006 they redrew the district just to help Mac Collins. That year was a great year for the Georgia GOP. Marshall still won. 2008 will be a better year for him because more Democrat-leaning voters turn out in Presidential years.

Posted by: Jon | June 2, 2007 5:40 AM

In CO-4, Marilyn Musgrave returned to Congress with only 46% of the vote--the lowest percentage of any reelected incumbent. This after getting only 51% in 2004 in a district where Bush did far better. With other trends in the region, and her lackluster tallies, she is clearly an endangered species--and thoroughly deserves to be--if CO Democrats find the right candidate and fund him/her appropriately.

As well, Chris, focus on all those races with 52% of the vote or less for Republican incumbents. . .many seats in the Northeast (I count 7 in NY, PA, CT, and NJ) a few out west (NV, WY, ID, and of course NM-1) and a few in the midwest (IL, MI, MN) that will be great places for resources to make the 2008 House Democratic majorities even bigger. . .

Posted by: bearddenver | June 2, 2007 4:43 AM

Ditto on Barbara Cubin in Wyoming. She barely held on against a newcomer opponent who was native to the much-malingned NEW YORK CITY. I don't know why anyone whould not think her seat is in play. They elect Democrats in Wyoming. The Democratic Governor won reelection overwelmingly. Democrats are swinging back in the interior West. Races in this region bear watching

Posted by: Alan in Montana | June 2, 2007 12:54 AM

the washington Post is a private corporation and is under no obligation to print anything. you are free to say anything about the US government you like without retribution from them. this does not guarantee you a publisher.

Posted by: kingofzouk | June 1, 2007 5:50 PM

Kagen will likely have an easier time than expected in WI-08. The suburban district is trending Dem and Republicans are having a tough time finding a challenger. Chris was right not to list this one.

Im also glad he took the two New York districts off. Republicans have two very wealthy challengers with huge ties to Bush and Rove and that will probably be more of a liability than an asset for Republicans in New York.

I believe he was correct to take the Indiana districts off as well.

Posted by: Dave | June 1, 2007 4:40 PM

I am very interested why, though I am receiving Washington Post e-mails, I can place and view only comments in special blogs, not in regular articles. It has started only since today solidly, though it has been a number of similar attempts before. This kind of prohibition had been valid for a short while before, and then everything had gotten back. There are a number of pertinent questions:
1. Who is censoring my communications this way, as three available for me browsers are giving the same picture, I have described above;
2. Why I, the writer, who has no money to promote and popularize her books, and the housewife, am the subject of such attention?
3. What is about the first amendment and all implications of its existence? Why is it allowed in this case to violate this amendment so obviously and in WASHINGTON POST, which is so close to the federal government headquarters, which part (part of this federal government, according to American constitution) is to support this amendment?
4. Who can help me to get rid of my censors? I, of course, would be very happy to punish them (censors), but I think, that the fulfillment of the latter is much above my current capacities.

Posted by: aepelbaum | June 1, 2007 4:33 PM

In Michigan, 4 Republicans won with 55% or under against little known challengers.
Walberg MI-07 - 51%
Rogers MI-8 - 55%
Knollenberg MI-09 - 52%
McCotter MI-11 - 54%

Cubin in WY will always underperform but it will be a Presidential year so I think she can continue to threaten to slap handicapped people. Mean Jean Schmidt (OH-2) will also underperform her district and is always good for a stupid quote. Davis in VA-01 may run for Senate if Warner retires so that seat will definitely be in play if it is open.

Posted by: gomer | June 1, 2007 4:11 PM

Mark in Austin writes
"NPR told of prices so low in Minnesota that my wife thought we ought to buy investment property up there. I suppose if investors can speculate on below sea level New Orleans, we could take a chance on the frozen wastes, as well."

The low prices are in less-than-desireable neighborhoods. There are roughly two neighborhoods in the metro area where crime is a problem - and that's where the housing is cheap. As an investment, real estate there is likely to be more of a headache than a sure-profit. Having said that, prices elsewhere have stayed flat or dropped; for a longer-term investment, it likely wouldn't be a bad one - but more in a traditional sense. Relative to the 1996-2006 boom, I don't see real estate here as doing quite that well in the near term. But then, in 1996, when I bought in, I had no idea how well it would turn out, so take that for what its worth!

Posted by: bsimon | June 1, 2007 3:52 PM

drindl says:

"He (the TB patient) is a deadly disease. In other words, he has had his trial [by medical test] and he is guilty of carelessly spreading a dangerous disease. Of course he should be held."

drindl also says:

"But you have made it very clear, razorback, that you despise the Constituion. You want to take away our rights and liberties."

Unfortunately drindle is a mindless old hag that cannot seem to understand or rationaly respond to any argument. (No, this is not ad hominem. Only a mindless hag would advocate severe limitations on a person's rights, and at the same time accuse ME of despising the constitution).

I asked a question to promote some discussion about the balance of civil liberties in medical emergencies, similar to the challenge of balancing civil liberties with protection from criminals and terrorists. drindle responds with a bunch of blather and name calling without any substantive argument, as always.
Drindle does not understand law. Law is written. There is no "medical emergency exception" written in the constitution. Drindle opposes broad sweeping governmental powers as applied to the war on terrorism, but supports them with respect to outbreak of infectious disease. She is too simple minded to understand that the same law must apply to both. The same constitution governs both. And she accuses me of despising the constitution. What a simpleton. Only a fool would fail to understand that the sweeping governmental emergency powers that exist to deal with public health crises do not have to be balanced with civil liberties.

Although drindle and Bokonon for the most part agree on this issue, Bokonon manages to address it in a thoughtful way, unlike the simpleton drindl. Bokonon addresses it as a policy matter rather than trying to make up law that doesn't exist.

The fact of the matter is that I, drindle and Bokonon all agree that there are situations that call for drastic limitations on civil liberties. We just disagree as to what those circumstances might include.

Posted by: Razorback | June 1, 2007 3:23 PM

bsimon - Austin and Centex are still booming and lots of snowbirds are buying on the lakes. I have read horror stories about repos in some Minneapolis neighborhoods, so I think the bursting housing bubble has hit y'all much harder.

NPR told of prices so low in Minnesota that my wife thought we ought to buy investment property up there. I suppose if investors can speculate on below sea level New Orleans, we could take a chance on the frozen wastes, as well.

Posted by: Mark in Austin | June 1, 2007 2:51 PM

WA-8 may also be a target.

Madrid lost because she made a gaffe towards the end.

Justice would be a great candidate. I think Young will retire.

Posted by: Rex .G | June 1, 2007 2:18 PM

GA-08 is like NM-01. It seems like the US Attorney scandal is fading, which may help Wilson. However, I'm sure the DCCC wont let NM-01 forget about it, despite its fading. I'm sure the ads are still up. What about Rep. Zack Space? Also, besides for Florida's 16th, Rep. Bill Young is considered a potential retirement. If he retires, State Sen. Charlie Justice is likely to run. Justice had served in the State House for six years and in 2006 faced another six-year state Rep., Kim Berfield, for this state Senate seat. Berfield ran a whole crap load of ads against him and was extremely well-financed. After the Sept. 5th primary, I began seeing ads about how Justice is a liberal and a baby-eater and hated children and whatever else. He was attacked more viciously, more unrelentingly, and more ferociously than I've ever seen. The level of attacks, the number of ads attacking him, and how frequently ads were shown were ridiculously high. I never knew who he was until those ads. Justice fired back, but not as heavily, and withstood the attacks with a great level of dignity. I'm not sure how republican the seat was, but the incumbent republican was retiring that year, an Berfield was considered the favorite until the end(im sure she got too negative). Justice won 51% to 49%. In May Justice proposed a bill that repealed the state's resign-to-run law, which means that he can run for the U.S. House without resigning his State Senate seat (and that Gov. Charlie Crist can run for Vice President without having to resign first).

Posted by: Justin Perez | June 1, 2007 2:11 PM

anonymous coward writes
"SF liberals are moving to CA-11 and are making that area bluer as well."

That's an area in which I have interest (demographic change, not CA-11). How are the demographics changing in the suburbs? Rather, are voter sentiments changing in the suburbs? Around here the Dems hold the urban core & first ring suburbs, but the Repubs get the outer rings & exurbs (though with exceptions, i.e. Walz & Oberstar). BUT, it looks to my unprofessional eye that some traditional dem constituencies are starting to move into these areas. Perhaps I'm imagining things, perhaps not.

This stream of consciousness takes me in another direction - again based on anecdotal evidence - I wonder how the folks in suburbs are going to survive another soft year in the real estate market? If more friends and neighbors start losing homes due to crappy mortgages, are they going to blame a political party? The GOP touts this booming economy, but it seems like not everyone is enjoying the boom. How will this play in the 08 race?

Posted by: bsimon | June 1, 2007 2:06 PM

SF liberals are moving to CA-11 and are making that area bluer as well.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 1:31 PM

I agree with bsimon....IT'S TOO SOON TO TELL.

Chris, your blog is a waste of time and space.

Posted by: theoldtrekker | June 1, 2007 1:30 PM

CA-4 is still GOP. But it has become slightly bluer as more and more people move there from the Bay Area.

Posted by: Rex .G | June 1, 2007 1:30 PM

I agree with bsimon....IT'S TOO SOON TO TELL.

Chris, your blog is a waste of time and space.

Posted by: theoldtrekker | June 1, 2007 1:30 PM

Cassandra, it was amusing the way you cut it, but RG actually coupled tax increases for the wealthy (repeal of Bush cuts) with hurting "the area".


Posted by: Mark in Austin | June 1, 2007 1:29 PM

Pombo lost because the gigantic wealthy ranches that used to dominate his district are becoming family suburbs and trending really blue.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 1:26 PM

Bush's 2004 numbers are like Crack Rock for Chris... he just can't quit them.

Your insight into district attitudes diminishes the further west of the Mississippi you attempt to prognosticate..

Charlie Brown baaaaarely lost in a formerly solid republican area that is not as red as it used to be. Seeing as Doolittle is still living in denial, this will assure another sqeaker that will go Brown's way.

You're on rock when it comes to McNerney's seat Chris. The district was redrawn, that's why Pombo lost.. the populous areas such as Pleasanton aren't getting any redder, and many of those folks have moved out to StocktonLand for low rents.

V

Posted by: Vincente | June 1, 2007 1:23 PM

I mean, she'll run strong in Flagstaff and the Navajo Nation, which is one of keys to winning AZ-1.

Posted by: Rex .G | June 1, 2007 1:21 PM

Mr. Giuliani told reporters yesterday after a visit to a restaurant on the edge of California's Silicon Valley. "Hillary wants to go back to the 1990s. ... It would hurt our economy. It would hurt this area dramatically."

Back to the nineties? What a truly awful prospect. Not the long nightmare of peace and prosperity. What a truly clueless clod Rudy is.

Posted by: Cassandra | June 1, 2007 1:17 PM

Why is Affeldt the strongest? Kirkpatrick seems like the strongest to me.

Posted by: Rex .G | June 1, 2007 1:05 PM

Andy R and Jackie -

I am remembering when Bev Carter was a Republican precinct chair who owned the Fort Bend Star and railed against DeLay - even said she would support the Dem until her party could run someone ethical, and DeLay still won easily.

But I take Jackie's point about the new blood in the District. Jackie also conceded implicitly that the old guard suppressed the giggling over the absolute joke that was Sekula-Gibbs, and I am perhaps weighing that too heavily in my safe haven of Austin, where we got to read and laugh about her for, oh, weeks.

Posted by: Mark in Austin | June 1, 2007 1:05 PM

Why is Affeldt the strongest? Kirkpatrick seems like the strongest to me.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 1:05 PM

How can you call Gen. Goddard the biggest Republican pick up of the cycle? No one in the 8th knows who this guy is! The last two challengers to Rep. Marshall had better name recognition and they still lost (Mac Collins is 06 and Calder Clay in 04). The Republicans claim every two years that they have the guy to beat Marshall and they never do. Jim Marshall is one of the finest men serving in the House of Representatives. Look at his voting record, he is in tune with his constituents and is doing a good job for them. The Republicans might as well give up on this seat because it will never happen.

Posted by: Nick | June 1, 2007 1:02 PM

To those of you who are cutting and pasting huge rants: (1) You ARE off topic. Today's subject is the House race. There are plenty of other blogs about the Bush administration, the presidential race, etc. Use one of them. (2) You are not accomplishing much, because most of us are skipping past your stuff so we can read the comments that are on topic.

Posted by: tr | June 1, 2007 1:01 PM

Mark in Austin pleas
"let us try, for one day, not to cast or bite bait."

But, but, but... its FRIDAY.

And, frankly, with the friday line being about house races in 08, its an excessively boring topic about which its far, far too early in the game to make any intelligent comments.

For instance, I'm very curious whether the DFL (local Dems) can, this time, offer a competent candidate for the seat representing MN 06. In Michele Bachmann the R's have an incumbent who's easily slipped into the role of looniest member of the caucus - but are the people at home paying enough attention to seek a replacement? Its TOO SOON TO TELL.

Likewise down in MN-01 - I think its 01 - with freshman Tim Walz (D) making a name for himself, will the Republicans find a candidate of keepingn Walz to one term? Was his victory an indicator of a pendulum swing in the district, or was it a fluke in a bad year for the GOP? You know what? Its TOO SOON TO TELL.

Posted by: bsimon | June 1, 2007 12:47 PM

18 posts in three hours. I need to get moving to get my average down to less than every ten minutes. someone please pay attention to me. I will try to find some really silly stuff to set you off.

I heard Bush eats babies for breakfast and Cheney swallows the bones. I wish rosie was straight, she is really hot.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 12:41 PM

Oh oh, the voices again.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 12:34 PM

'I am not able to reason and come to logical conclusions. I love ruining this blog with my inept bile. i accuse the opposition of doing exactly what I do. am I fooling anyone?'

no. and i'm glad to see you have gotten so self-aware.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 12:31 PM

I am the master of cut and paste. Just watch me find some "news" story, get all incensed and then post the entire thing here. I never tire of this, even if it annoys everyone. In fact the annoying is what makes it worthwhile for me. I tried to get a real job once but my anti-social tendencies made it impossible to get along with anyone. Now I am here all day posting off topic rants.

My shrink told me it is better than fixating on zouk, who is out to get me.

Just watch how may ignorant one liners I come up with today. I am trying to break my old record of posting every four minutes without ever saying a thing.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 12:31 PM

'i am poor dumb ignoRANT coward.'

hi zouk. right on time.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 12:30 PM

i am poor dumb ignoRANT coward. I have nothing to say except what I steal from Kos. Instead I just insult. facts mean nothing to me. I am not able to reason and come to logical conclusions. I love ruining this blog with my inept bile. If I am ever challenged on anything, i accuse the opposition of doing exactly what I do. am I fooling anyone?

I mean am I fooling anyone with a brain, this obviuously doesn't include my fellow moonbat travellers.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 12:25 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Dan Bartlett, one of President Bush's most trusted advisers and his longest-serving aide, said Friday he is resigning to begin a career outside of government.

With twin, 3-year-old boys and another son born in January, Bartlett said it was time to pursue a new chapter of his life and "reacquaint myself with my family." His wife, Allyson, had joked that they should name their newborn "Exit Strategy."

--reallly fun 'joke' while our troops are dying for nothing...

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 12:23 PM

'Clinton's huge cut in defense spending; then a budget deal with Republicans that reduced the rate of growth of Medicare and cut taxes on capital gains; then, a wondrous flow of revenue into the federal treasury from capital gains and the "rich getting richer."

you repugs are great at just making sh*t up.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 12:19 PM

Sorry, that should have read "most of that increased revenue flow would NOT have been possible..."

Posted by: Roscoe P. Coltrane | June 1, 2007 12:12 PM

Rich, most of that increased revenue flow would have been possible were it not for the appearance of the Internet and its attendant e-business. And lest you forget, Clinton's tax hike - while not the only factor, as you mention - DID help the economy, putting the lie to conservative dogma... a lesson the GOP did its best to forget as soon as possible.

Posted by: Roscoe P. Coltrane | June 1, 2007 12:11 PM

"blog confusion -- sorry your simple mind is confused. nothing political is offtopic on a politics blog."

Actually, we should be commenting on Chris' blog entry on House of Rep races in 2008, but that may be above the IQ of Bush haters.

Now....

1.Freshman Vern Buchanan won by a few hundred votes should also be in play as the Sarasota-based district has been trending democrat in registration and vote % lately.(Katherine Harris's old district)

2.There is a mini Abramoff scandal brewing in Tom Feeney's district, but he has won easily, even in 2006.

3. The Dixie-Democratic-East Panhandle 3rd (Allen Boyd-D) has also seen a surge in republican registration since the lines were drawn in 2002. D's outnumbered R's by 125k voters on Nov 2002. That margin has been reduced to 95k as of Nov. 2006.

Posted by: 2008 House of Reps-Florida | June 1, 2007 12:07 PM

Chris,

You missed mentioning the strongest Dem candidate in Arizona's District 1: Winslow Mayor Allan Affeldt.

Check out his campaign site at: http://www.allanaffeldt.com

Posted by: Joel Wright | June 1, 2007 11:56 AM

Hillary Clinton has identified a grievous flaw in the contemporary American economy: It leaves "it all up to the individual." This hateful individualism is allegedly driving income inequality and destroying the American Dream.

Clinton calls it "the 'on your own' society," displaying a liberal Democrat's curious aversion to people doing things on their own. In contrast, she offers a collectivist vision of "shared responsibility for shared prosperity," making the case for it based on a farrago of mistruths about the state of the economy. She actually is not interested in sharing anything, but instead hogging all the credit for economic growth in the 1990s for her husband and, by extension, herself.

The real news from Clinton's speech is the way she, in keeping with the leftward shift of her party, turns her back on her husband's actual policies. It is too inconvenient for her to explain the sources of the deficit reduction in the 1990s besides his (relatively inconsequential) tax increase: first, Clinton's huge cut in defense spending; then a budget deal with Republicans that reduced the rate of growth of Medicare and cut taxes on capital gains; then, a wondrous flow of revenue into the federal treasury from capital gains and the "rich getting richer."


Posted by: Rich | June 1, 2007 11:55 AM

Razorback, the two situations are not the same. The TB guy is putting the lives of others at risk when he goes out in public, so his detention - which I'm sure will be considerably more comfortable and humane than that of the Guantanamo prisoners - can be scientifically shown to be for the good of the public.
The Guantanamo prisoners have been detained for up to five or so years without trial (most of them), and we have already been compelled to release hundreds, admitting that there was no compelling reason to hold them. That, plus the refusal to allow them the same legal rights given Ted Bundy and Jeffrey Dahmer - about whom far worse things were proven - says it all for me. Are any of them terrorists? Maybe. Are most of them terrorists? Probably not. Do we have a legal justification for continuing to hold all of them without indictment? No. Will we? Yes.

The detention of the TB guy in no way justifies the extra-legal situation in Guantanamo. The two represent neither the same legal principle nor the same degree of danger to the public.

Posted by: Bokonon | June 1, 2007 11:53 AM

the blog ate my homework. The TB guy is not a prisoner. He is not being tortured, or sodomized, without proof of anything, without charge, without access to a lawyer, without habeas corpus. This is not just non-citizens by the way... it has happened to citizens as well.

But you have made it very clear, razorback, that you despise the Constituion. You want to take away our rights and liberties. You want the laws to be written by multinational corporations. You hate everything this country stands for. Or used to.

Posted by: drindl | June 1, 2007 11:51 AM

'Should he be detained without a jury trial?'

What a ridiculous non-sequitor. Is he being toDid he just happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong tiime? No.He is a deadly disease. In other words, he has had his trial [by medical test] and he is guilty of carelessly spreading a dangerous disease. Of course he should be held. Why do you make such childish equivocations?

Posted by: drindl | June 1, 2007 11:48 AM

Lynn Swann will run for congress against Jason Altmire ansd he will kcik his butt!

Posted by: John B. | June 1, 2007 11:46 AM

Andy R, Right you are about Tex 22. I live in an adjacent district and can say that the 22 is a very dynamic area, with Houston merging into what was once an isolated Republican enclave. The district has significant Hispanic areas, potentially mobilized by the immigration debate. Depending on who gets the Rep. nod, this could be a barn burner. Local coverage of the Sekula-Gibbs stint in the lame duck Congress was laughable, but Bettencourt could prove a strong candidate. Too close to call for me...Jackie

Posted by: Jackie | June 1, 2007 11:37 AM

On topic, if the presidential race in close, the R's will probably gain a few seats, but not have a serious chance of retaking the House.

Off topic, I wonder what some of the libs who are so outraged about the detention of non-citizen enemy combatants at Guantanamo think of the potential detention of this TB traveller. Should he be detained without a jury trial?

Posted by: Razorback | June 1, 2007 11:32 AM

Just Out: a short piece on the demise of the Iran Syria Operations Group, and an interview (reg. req.) with a member of a delegation of American Christian leaders who recently met with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/laura_rozen/2007/05/the_hardliners_lose_a_round.html

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 11:16 AM

There are some scary signs for alot of the freshmen democratic senators. BUT the democrats will probably enter 08 with an easy 2 to 1 money advantage nationally. And with Dean's new strategy of having strong state parties fully coming into its own I think some of these districts will suprise you.
Also Lampson's district isn't as Red as you make it out to be. When they redistricted Texas, Delay actually added areas that were traditionally democratic because he knew that his star power would overcome them. Without Delay, and the fact that Lampson will have another term under his belt I wouldn't sell him out just yet.

Posted by: Andy R | June 1, 2007 11:15 AM

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned NATO ally the United States late Tuesday against repeating any infringement of Turkish airspace on its borders with Iraq, threatening unspecified action. The warning came after airspace violations by two U.S. F-16 jets on May 24, which some Turkish media described as a deliberate attempt at intimidation as Ankara was discussing a possible cross-border operation into northern Iraq to quash the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) camps.

"We warned them not to repeat this... If this happens again... if this takes a different dimension, what we will do is obvious," Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in an interview with the private NTV news channel.

Posted by: war with turkey? | June 1, 2007 11:13 AM

BAGHDAD, Iraq - The U.S. military is seeking talks with Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr directly and through the government of Iraq, according to a top American general.


A Sadr aide confirmed that U.S. officials had approached the anti-American cleric's supporters but said that Sadr would never begin a dialogue with what they describe as "occupation forces."

"He has a grass-roots movement that he's always going to have; we have to recognize that," Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the second-ranking American commander in Iraq, told McClatchy Newspapers in an interview this week. "We're trying to talk to him. We want to talk to him."

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 11:06 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A newly disclosed effort to keep Vice President Dick Cheney's visitor records secret is the latest White House push to make sure the public doesn't learn who has been meeting with top officials in the Bush administration.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 11:04 AM

mark, you're entirely too reasonable about this. They're going to suspend your commenting privileges if you're not careful.

Posted by: JD | June 1, 2007 11:02 AM

mark, you're entirely too reasonable about this. They're going to suspect your commenting privileges if you're not careful.

Posted by: JD | June 1, 2007 11:02 AM

MI-07 and MI-09 will also be top tier races, especially if former Rep. Joe Schwarz switches to a Dem and runs again in the 7th.

Posted by: Laura | June 1, 2007 10:57 AM

Lampson is probably the most in danger of the Dem freshmen, followed by Mahoney and Carney. I think Steve Kagen from WI-8 is in a lot of trouble as well. I think that a bloody primary will save Boyda in 2008 just as it helped Dennis Moore more than once and helped Kathleen Sebelius get elected. As for Marshall, I wouldn't count that guy out, he's a fighter. Besides, his current district was practically tailor-made for Mac Collins and Marshall beat him in what was a good Republican year in Georgia.

On top of that, the GOP will most likely contest most of the freshmen.

The Dems have a lot of targets in the Northeast: NY-29, NY-25, NY-3, NY-13. McHugh is safe and Reynolds will win without Foley hanging over his head. Also there is NJ-7 and a longshot chance at NJ-5 as well as NJ-2 if the Dems get Jeff Van Drew to run. In Pennslyvania we have Gerlach's seat of course as well as Charlie Dent, Phil English and a longshot with Tim Murphy. And Chris Shays in CT as well.

There are a few targets in the West such as AZ-1, CA-4 as long as Doolittle is on the ballot, CO-4, NV-3 and maybe NV-2 but the odds are against the Dems there.

In the Midwest there are targets in Michigan and Ohio and in the South only NC-8 and FL-13. If Young retires in FL-10 that seat will be highly competitive as well.

Posted by: Rex G. | June 1, 2007 10:45 AM

How do you not put Missouri's 6th on there? One of the Dem's best pickup opportunities in '08.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 10:44 AM

Che and |, please stop the cut-and-paste and just cite your .url sources.

|, please avoid name calling.

Blog confusion, and Judge Crater, Lylepink, drindl, Razorback, JD, JimD in Fla, bsimon, meuphys, Loudon, dcaustinite, Mike B., Rufus, and Zouk, let us try, for one day, not to cast or bite bait. Most of you avoid the shrill ad hominem attacks, but those of you who tend to cast and/or bite know who you are and rather than call you out for it, I hope to have listed all the regulars. If I missed you, I apologize in advance.

Now,on topic, I think any moderately strong R will beat Lampson.

Posted by: Mark in Austin | June 1, 2007 10:44 AM

blog confusion -- sorry your simple mind is confused. nothing political is offtopic on a politics blog.

Posted by: against censorship | June 1, 2007 10:41 AM

Chris,

Can you please delelte these long-winded, off-topic posts.

Posted by: Blog confusion | June 1, 2007 10:32 AM

Where are the republican cowards this morning? what rock is the republican scum and slime hiding under?

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 10:19 AM

In their upcoming book, Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton (Little, Brown & Co., June 2007), authors Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. claim that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (D-NY) September 13, 2001, response to a question from then-CBS anchor Dan Rather, in which she referred to terrorism as "our number one homeland threat," was "an odd answer, considering her previous lack of public engagement on the topic." Gerth and Van Natta claim that Clinton's answer "mark[ed] the first time that she had spoken publicly as a senator about the terrorist threat to the United States," citing a Nexis search the authors had conducted for the precise phrase: "homeland threat." However, had Gerth and Van Natta expanded their search criteria to include more commonplace terms such as "terrorism" or "terrorist," they would have found that Sen. Clinton did, in fact, address the terrorist threat to the United States months before September 2001.

From a March 17, 2001, New York Daily News article:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said she approved yesterday of the Bush administration's decision to keep Manhattan U.S. Attorney Mary Jo White on the job because of her probe into someone of national significance -- terrorist Osama Bin Laden.

In backing the decision to keep White, Clinton cited the Manhattan prosecutor's role in pursing Bin Laden, a fugitive Saudi millionaire implicated in a global terrorist network.

She called the case "a No. 1 national security priority in our fight against terrorism."

Posted by: reepublican liars- lies and more lies | June 1, 2007 10:15 AM

In the book Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton, co-authors Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. repeatedly cite former officials in the Office of Independent Counsel (OIC), including former independent counsel Kenneth Starr himself, to rehash allegations against Sen. Clinton that those officials had long ago determined they were unable to prove in court. Gerth and Van Natta's often uncritical repetition of these allegations recalls their controversial reporting at The New York Times on matters investigated by the OIC and their reporting on the office itself. Indeed, Van Natta allegedly misrepresented his sources in a 1999 Times article about Starr's office considering whether it could -- and should -- impeach President Clinton while he was in office, leading a federal judge to sharply criticize Van Natta for "journalistic sleight of hand" and "fraudulent attribution" of key information. Gerth and Van Natta do not mention the rebuke by the judge, Norma Holloway Johnson, anywhere in the book.

In the January 31, 1999, Times article, Van Natta also separately allowed OIC spokesman Charles Bakaly III to falsely deny that he had been a source on internal OIC discussions. In an October 5, 2000, opinion, Johnson found that Bakaly had confirmed Van Natta's reporting on those discussions -- so Van Natta had to know that Bakaly's denial was false.

Johnson issued her rebuke of Van Natta in an opinion accompanying her decision on a contempt proceeding against Bakaly, which arose from charges that he had violated the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure by providing grand jury information to Van Natta. As part of the OIC's defense against the charges, the office claimed that it was not the source of the information in Van Natta's article, based on Bakaly's sworn statement. But during an internal OIC investigation, Bakaly admitted that he had given Van Natta information for the article. As a result of Bakaly's admission, Johnson initiated contempt proceedings against the OIC and Bakaly over the leak

Posted by: the 'librul' media | June 1, 2007 10:10 AM

According to government documents, the Secret Service routinely destroyed five of eight categories of information relating to visitors to Cheney's residence. Of the records it retained, the Secret Service regularly turned over handwritten visitor logs to Cheney's office.

The Secret Service stopped the destruction in June 2006 because of lawsuits by various groups, according to the court papers. The law enforcement agency also is retaining copies of the material, contrary to the directive in the September 2006 letter from Cheney's counsel.

"The scary thing about this move by the vice president's office is the power grab part of it," said Tom Blanton, head of the National Security Archive, a private group which uses the FOIA law to pierce government secrecy.

"We're looking at a huge problem if the White House can reach into any agency and say certain records have something to do with the White House and they are presidential from now on," Blanton said. "This White House has been infinitely creative in finding new ways and new forms of government secrecy."

first step to fascism -- government secrecy. WHAT ARE THEY HIDING?

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 10:03 AM


WASHINGTON (AP) -- A newly disclosed effort to keep Vice President Dick Cheney's visitor records secret is the latest White House push to make sure the public doesn't learn who has been meeting with top officials in the Bush administration.

Over the past year, lawyers for President Bush and Cheney have directed the Secret Service to keep secret visitor entry and exit logs, declaring them to be presidential records, exempt from a law requiring their disclosure to whoever asks to see them.

But he Bush administration has triggered a battle in the courts.

The administration is seeking dismissal of two lawsuits by a private group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, demanding Secret Service visitor logs.

In trying to get the cases thrown out, the Justice Department has filed documents in court outlining a behind-the-scenes debate over whether Secret Service records are subject to public disclosure. The discussions date back at least to the Nixon administration and involve the Justice Department and the National Archives as well as the White House and the Secret Service.

The government's court filings show that the Bush White House focused on the issue in the months before Election Day 2004.

Discussions moved into high gear when the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal prompted news organizations and private groups to demand that the administration turn over Secret Service records of visitors to the White House complex and the vice president's residence.

There was precedent for the demands.

During the Clinton administration, Republican-controlled congressional committees obtained Secret Service visitor logs while conducting investigations of the president and first lady.

Christopher Lehane, a former special assistant counsel, points out the political implications of the Bush administration campaign to close off access to the records.

"The question it raises is 'what are these guys hiding?"' said Lehane, now a consultant. "They can live with it because they've only got a year or so left, but it doesn't do a lot for public confidence in open government."

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 9:58 AM

I think Carney actually has a decent chance to hold that seat. He's a pretty charismatic guy who comes accross as almost non-partisan. Plus, the fact that he's a pro-life Dem negates some of the districts' cultural conservatism. Mahoney and Lampson are probably in trouble, although if Iraq is still the big issue in 2006 they might also hold on.

Posted by: Colin | June 1, 2007 9:57 AM

Two former aides hired to spearhead religious outreach for presidential candidate John McCain say that they were virtually ignored by the campaign and that McCain's top campaign strategists are intent on winning votes of religious voters without having to develop serious ties to faith communities. The aides, who were fired in early April after roughly three months on the job, said the campaign staff declined to return scores of their phone calls and E-mail messages, denied them access to leaders of the McCain campaign, and pressed them to collect church directories--a controversial tactic--as the centerpiece of a strategy to woo "values" voters.

"In the end, you came away with the strong sense that they had contempt for the faith-based community," says Marlene Elwell, one of those fired staffers. Elwell, a prominent Christian-right activist, was hired by McCain in December 2006 to be national director of his "Americans of Faith" coalition. "The way we were being treated it was as if we had leprosy."

The McCain campaign said the aides' dismissals were performance-related and were part of a broader staff reshuffling earlier this spring that grew from weaker-than-expected fundraising.

But the other fired staffer, Judy Haynes--a former top Christian Coalition official hired to work under Elwell--had an assessment similar to Elwell's, saying in a separate interview that the campaign exhibited "a contempt for Christians."

"It's an attitude about the Christian community that they don't like to have to do [outreach] but that they need to do it," Haynes said, referring to the McCain campaign's religious outreach plan. "Like, if we can get what we want without having to get too close [to religious people] and not make a big display, we'll do it."

Posted by: mccain-contempt for christians? | June 1, 2007 9:51 AM

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The former White House aide whose appointment to a U.S. attorney's post helped fuel the furor over the forced resignations of eight federal prosecutors will resign Friday, according to a news release.

Tim Griffin, 38, said in a Thursday statement that he is leaving his position as interim U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Arkansas to pursue opportunities in the private sector.

"I greatly appreciate the opportunity to serve in the Department of Justice, especially as United States attorney," he said. "I have particularly enjoyed serving in my home state of Arkansas and look forward to remaining here."

Griffin's predecessor, Bud Cummins, was one of the eight attorneys fired last year, sparking a firestorm of criticism against the Justice Department and spurring a wave of hearings aimed at uncovering whether the ousters were politically motivated.

The Justice Department and Attorney General Alberto Gonzales originally said Cummins and other attorneys were fired because of performance, but they later acknowledged that Cummins was dismissed to make room for Griffin, a former aide to Karl Rove, President Bush's political adviser.

A congressional investigation into the firings is ongoing. E-mails released as part of the probe show that White House and Justice Department officials discussed for months how to get Griffin into the U.S. attorney's office in Little Rock.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 9:48 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Detailed plans for the new U.S. Embassy now under construction in Baghdad appeared online in a major breach of the tight security surrounding the sensitive project that will be America's largest diplomatic mission abroad.

Computer-generated projections of the nearly completed heavily fortified compound were posted to the Web site of Berger Devine Yaeger Inc., an American architectural firm that was contracted to design the massive facility in the Iraqi capital.

The post was removed by the company from its Web site Thursday shortly after being contacted about it by the State Department.

"We work very hard to ensure the safety and security of our employees overseas," said Gozalo Gallegos, a State Department spokesman. "This kind of information out in the public domain detracts from that effort."

The 10 images included a scheme of the overall layout of the compound, plus depictions of individual buildings, including the embassy itself, office annexes, the Marine Corps security post, swimming pool, recreation center, ambassador's and deputy ambassador's residences.

U.S. officials said the posted plans conformed to conceptual drawings for the new embassy, which is being built on the banks of the Tigris River behind huge fences due to fears insurgents will attack what is already a prime target.'

..wouldn't want american taxpayers to know what they're actually paying for in iraq -- huge, permanent bases to protect the oil fields.

Posted by: | June 1, 2007 9:44 AM

Agreed that on the Dem side, Carney, Lampson, Marshall and Mahoney are all probably goners, assuming they get competent challengers.

I think Boyda will hold the KS seat--there seems to still be a backlash against the wingnut Republicans in KS, with moderate R's being a de-facto third party in the state.

Renzi's seat will likely fall into the D's column, but I don't think the Dems will pick up Doolittle's seat if Doolittle isn't on the ballot.

For Dem pick-ups, I'd look to: NV-3, NJ-7, and NC-8 as strong prospects. They were extremely tight in 06 and largely under the radar for most of the campaign season.

Of course, this all depends on who is at the top of the ballot...

Posted by: Greg-G | June 1, 2007 9:33 AM

For uncensored news please bookmark:

www.wsws.org
www.takingaimradio.info
otherside123.blogspot.com
www.onlinejournal.com
www.globalresearch.ca

"Islamic Terrorists" supported by Uncle Sam: Bush Administration "Black Ops" directed against Iran, Lebanon and Syria

by Prof Michel Chossudovsky

Global Research, May 31, 2007

The Bush administration has admitted that covert actions of an aggressive nature were applied against Iran and Syria. The stated objective was to wreck the countries' economies and currency systems. The infamous Iran-Syria Policy and Operations Group (ISOG) created in early 2006, integrated by officials from the White House, the State Department, the CIA and the Treasury Department, had a mandate to destabilize Syria and Iran, and bring about "Regime Change" :

"The committee, the Iran-Syria Policy and Operations Group [ISOG], met weekly throughout much of 2006 to coordinate actions such as curtailing Iran's access to credit and banking institutions, organizing the sale of military equipment to Iran's neighbors and supporting forces that oppose the two regimes." (Boston Globe, 25 May 2007)

ISOG had also been providing undercover assistance to Iranian opposition groups and dissidents. The group's propaganda ploy consisted in feeding disinformation into the news chain and "building international outrage toward Iran". (Boston Globe 2, January 2007)

About-Turn in Iran-Syria Policy?

Washington has recently announced an apparent about-turn: no more treacherous covert ops directed against "rogue enemies" in the Middle East. The Iran-Syria Policy and Operations Group (ISOG) has been disbanded on the orders of President Bush. The US will no longer be involved in "[covert] aggressive actions against Iran and Syria", according to State Department officials.

"The group had become the focus for administration critics who feared that it was plotting covert actions that could escalate into a military conflict with Iran or Syria. The air of secrecy surrounding the group when it was established in March 2006, coupled with the fact that it was modeled after a similar special committee on Iraq, contributed to those suspicions.

A senior State Department official,... said the group [ISOG] was shut down because of a widespread public perception that it was designed to enact regime change. State Department officials have said the focus of the Iran-Syria group was persuading the two regimes to change their behavior, not toppling them." (Ibid)

Believe it or not?

Foreign policy analysts have described Washington's decision as proof of a welcome "softening" of US strategy in the Middle East. The Bush administration is said to have discarded " regime change" in favor of a more flexible approach, consisting of constructive dialogue with Tehran and Damascus. Aggressive covert actions, we are told, have been swapped for bona fide international diplomacy:

The [dissolution of ISOG] comes as the Bush administration has embarked on a significant new effort to hold high-level meetings with Iran and Syria.

...

Shortly before the Iran-Syria group was shut down, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice launched a major initiative to engage Iran and Syria in a regional effort to stabilize Iraq, reversing longstanding U.S. policy against high-level contact with the countries.

For years, the Bush administration has shunned meetings with Syria. ...But Rice met this month with Syria's foreign minister in Egypt, the first such high-level meeting between the two countries since 2004, and on Monday, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, is scheduled to meet his Iranian counterpart in Baghdad.

Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East specialist at the Congressional Research Service, the research arm of the U.S. Congress, said he did not think it was a coincidence that the Iran-Syria group was disbanded at the same time the State Department began its diplomatic outreach.

"I think the rationale for that group was promoting regime change, and Rice is going in a much different direction from that," Katzman said. "The regime-change school within the administration has really gotten quite a bit weaker." (Ibid)

The decision to dismantle ISOG is largely cosmetic. Most of these intelligence operations remain intact. ISOG was one among several covert initiatives to destabilize Iran and Syria. Regime change and outright war are still part of the Administration's agenda. In fact, destabilizing covert intelligence operations directed against Iran and Syria have been stepped up in the course of the last four years. Moreover, these operations are closely coordinated with Israeli and NATO war plans, which constitute an integral part of the US sponsored military operation directed against Iran, Syria and Lebanon.

The covert ops have been synchronized with the military road map, including the various US war scenarios envisaged since the launching of " Theater Iran Near Term" (TIRANNT) in May 2003, barely a month after the invasion of Iraq. These war-like scenarios explicitly envisage regime change:

... Under TIRANNT, Army and U.S. Central Command planners have been examining both near-term and out-year scenarios for war with Iran, including all aspects of a major combat operation, from mobilization and deployment of forces through postwar stability operations after regime change." (William Arkin, Washington Post, 16 April 2006)

The US is on a war footing and the various covert operations and Psy-Ops --which routinely feed despicable images of the Iranian head of State into the news chain--, are an integral part of the military-intelligence and propaganda arsenal.

In turn, the covert ops are coordinated with US, Israeli and NATO military deployments in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf including the conduct of major war games, which have been carried out almost continuously since Summer 2006.

CIA " Black Ops" directed against Iran

Coinciding with the announcement on the closing down of ISOG, "The CIA has received secret presidential approval to mount a covert "black" operation to destabilize the Iranian government, according to current and former officials in the intelligence community... " (ABC News Report 22 May 2007). This parallel CIA sponsored initiative, which "received approval by White House officials and other officials in the intelligence community", has broadly the same mandate as that of the defunct ISOG:

"The sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject, say President Bush has signed a "nonlethal presidential finding" that puts into motion a CIA plan that reportedly includes a coordinated campaign of propaganda, disinformation and manipulation of Iran's currency and international financial transactions.

"I can't confirm or deny whether such a program exists or whether the president signed it, but it would be consistent with an overall American approach trying to find ways to put pressure on the regime," said Bruce Riedel, a recently retired CIA senior official who dealt with Iran and other countries in the region.

A National Security Council spokesperson, Gordon Johndroe, said, "The White House does not comment on intelligence matters." A CIA spokesperson said, "As a matter of course, we do not comment on allegations of covert activity." (ABC News Report 22 May 2007)

The CIA plan was apparently "designed to pressure Iran to stop its nuclear enrichment program and end aid to insurgents in Iraq." The covert operation, according to US officials, was a softer alternative to that of a military strike on Iran, an option which was favored by Vice President Dick Cheney and other hawks within the administration:

"Current and former intelligence officials say the approval of the covert action means the Bush administration, for the time being, has decided not to pursue a military option against Iran.

"Vice President Cheney helped to lead the side favoring a military strike," said former CIA official Riedel, "but I think they have come to the conclusion that a military strike has more downsides than upsides." (Ibid)

The covert intelligence operations directed against Iran and Syria is not an alternative to military action. Quite the opposite. The CIA plan was designed to support Washington's strategy to destabilize Iran and Syria, through both military action and non-military means including covert intelligence operations.

Unleashing The Islamic Brigades Inside Iran

In relation to Iran, US intelligence has been supporting a Pakistani based terrorist group, Jundullah (Soldiers of God), that has conducted terrorist raids inside Iran. The group operates "from bases on the rugged Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan 'tri-border region'." According to a report by ABC News:

"A Pakistani tribal militant group responsible for a series of deadly guerrilla raids inside Iran has been secretly encouraged and advised by American officials since 2005, U.S. and Pakistani intelligence sources tell ABC News.

The group, called Jundullah, is made up of members of the Baluchi tribe and operates out of the Baluchistan province in Pakistan, just across the border from Iran.

It has taken responsibility for the deaths and kidnappings of more than a dozen Iranian soldiers and officials." (ABC News, 2 April 2007)

Abd el Malik Regi, the leader of Jundullah, commands a force of several hundred guerrilla fighters "that stage attacks across the border into Iran on Iranian military officers, Iranian intelligence officers, kidnapping them, executing them on camera, ... Most recently, Jundullah took credit for an attack in February that killed at least 11 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard riding on a bus in the Iranian city of Zahedan." (Ibid)

US government sources have acknowledged that Jundullah's leader "had regular contact with US officials" but denies any "direct funding" of Jundullah by US intelligence.

Inherent in CIA covert operations, the Agency never grants funding "directly". It invariably proceeds through one of its proxy organizations including Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), which historically, since the Soviet-Afghan war, has provided support to Islamic terror groups, including the funding of the training camps and the madrassahs, always acting on behalf of the CIA. In fact this insidious role of Pakistan's ISI (on behalf of the the CIA) is candidly acknowledged by US intelligence:

"American intelligence sources say Jundullah has received money and weapons through the Afghanistan and Pakistan military and Pakistan's intelligence service. Pakistan has officially denied any connection." ( Brian Ross and Christopher Isham, The Secret War Against Iran, April 03, 2007

Other channels used by US intelligence in funding terrorism is through Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, where foundation money is funneled to various militant Islamic groups on behalf of Uncle Sam. "Some former CIA officers say the arrangement [with regard to Jundullah] is reminiscent of how the U.S. government used proxy armies, funded by other countries including Saudi Arabia, to destabilize the government of Nicaragua in the 1980s [reminiscent of the Iran-Contra affair]." (Ibid)

For the rest please go to:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5837

Posted by: che | June 1, 2007 9:15 AM

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