My life's been basically dull these days.
I haven't gotten much done these days.
Today was a complete loss.

im the only gay eskimo tenacious d

My life's been basically dull these days.
I haven't gotten much done these days.
Today was a complete loss.

im the only gay eskimo tenacious d

Arizona's 1st district wasn't a serious target for Democrats in the last congressional cycle partly because of a weak candidate but primarily because there were three better targets for Democratic party resources--the two districts picked up by Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords followed by the senate race between Jon Kyl and Jim Pederson (which was retained by the Republicans). The investigations surrounding Renzi only became a serious story late in the cycle when resources and candidates were already committed. Most of the last minute blitz by the state and national congressional committees were focused on electing Harry Mitchell in a significant upset.

2008 will look much more like 2004 with heavy attention (read: money) from the national and state party organizations, but the Democrats have a stronger national political environment and will likely field a stronger candidate. The Republicans will miss the advantages of Renzi's incumbency and his strong support from Native American voters.

I would like to see republican candidates, especially republican support global poverty, we see that the focus of most candidates has been "fighting" immigration but I believe that global poverty and immigration have to do with the same core issue. If we focused on fighting global poverty there would be less need for people to leave their countries in search of a better future.

Point taken J.

Democrats should be looking at Jacoby Ellsbury.

He can run better than anybody in Northern Arizona.

Renzi was very close to the Indian reservations in that district. I think that was the main reason he did well, not because of any Republican tilt.

And as for "oh this is a conservative state", Gaby Giffords and Harry Mitchell still did well last year.

Andy,

The problem with waiting is that then they would have to unseat an incumbent instead of capturing an open seat. These days that's a pretty big disadvantage.

I would think a GOP candidate would take a chance on the atmosphere while hoping that the Dems continue to nominate light candidates.

The registration numbers don't include Independents so we don't know how their numbers compare. And even that wouldn't tell us which way those Independents lean. How have they voted? There was a cloud over Renzi last year and he still won.

So I don't think that the Dems can count on that registration number that appears to favor them on the surface.

Gerald, I wouldn't say that this is a GOP leaning seat at all. There are more registered democrats in the area by over 30,000. Also Arizona's governor is a Democrat, and until lately their senior senator was a very independent GOP Senator (McCain). Also Senator Kyl won in 2006 but it was a lot closer then anyone thought it would be.

Also the GOP are having a serious problem recruiting candidates right now because anyone who would be a good candidate can read the writing on the wall and want to wait until the national mood is less anti-GOP, say in 2010, or 2012.

this just shows the trouble the GOP is in right now in terms of the House.

bsimon and the first commenter:

It is a Republican - leaning seat in a swing to conservative state. A liberal would have as much a chance of winning that seat as would Tom Coburn or Rick Santorum in Vermont or Massachusetts. If the people running the Democratic Party are going to be this delusional, then the Republicans will win by the default, which is pretty much what they have been doing for the last 30 years.

Andy,

Yeah, I know. It's pretty disgusting what it takes to be competitive for a Congressional seat these days. It's bad enough for the State Legislature. I haven't seen the figures for Poundmaster...

But I don't have a solution for getting the money out, so I guess for now I'll just have to deal with things as they are.

Renzi's resignation and the seat's tilt back toward GOP looks like an American manifestation of the Sarkozy effect.

Conservatives running as good government agents of change against the previous incumbents of their own party.

J, I hear you. I could use a nice new Ferrari. But I read somewhere that the average congressional race is in the Millions now. So 100 grand really is small change to the DCCC, and DNC folks.

Last October (just before the elections) it was leaked that federal law-enforcement authorities were looking into Renzi's proposed legislation to swap private land with federal land near the San Pedro River, making the land owned by a business partner more valuable.

The Justice Department subsequently forced Arizona U.S. Attorney Chariton, who had ordered the investigation, to resign.

Let's see a show of hands, who thinks this was a coincidence?

Any wonder so many White House emails, including thousands of those of political guru Rove, were "lost."

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

Rothenberg has this race listed as a toss-up now. Here are his ratings:

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/2008-house-ratings.html

And here's the analysis on the Renzi announcement from a couple weeks ago:

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/08/arizona-1-renzis-out-but-who-benefits.html

Chris writes
"Democrats must not repeat their recruiting errors of years past -- putting up candidates that were easily painted as liberals and/or underperformed in the Native American community."

That seems odd. What Republican messages typically appeal to the Native American vote? Or, which liberal policies turn off the Native American vote?

Any locals care to offer some insight?

Another day, another Republican scandal...

"Great is the guilt of unnecessary war" - John Adams

Since the election looks like it will hinge on who the nominees are, it would be nice to see a little information on the strength of the candidates. Especially given that the Dem nominees in past years have been underwhelming, it would be interesting to see if they've learned anything.

Andy,
Nice to see that a few hundred K is inexpensive! :)

They can send it to me if they don't have anything useful to do with it...

In this anti-GOP environment, with the finacial edge that the DCCC will have, and the fact that the Dems have a higher registration level tends me to think that this is a good pick-up oppurtunity for the Dems. Also the district may be large but it also probably has very inexpensive media such as local Radio stations where a few hundred K will go a long way.

It only goes to show how effective 30 years of systematic media demonization of liberalism and democrats has been--I'm sure he's not even self-aware enough to realize it.

Why didn't you mention the district's electoral history in Congressional elections?

In 2006, Renzi won 51-44, with an independent getting 5%. But in 2004, Renzi won 59-36, with another independent getting 5%. That's a huge change. It could be evidence that the district is trending more Democratic. (Or maybe it isn't; I don't know enough about AZ politics to say.) I don't know why this wasn't deemed important enough to describe in the article.

CC once again demonstrates the 'liberal' DC media's rightwing mindset.

' Democrats must not repeat their recruiting errors of years past -- putting up candidates that were easily painted as liberals'

Imagine him writing this:

'Republicans must not repeat their recruiting errors of years past -- putting up candidates that were easily painted as conservatives'