I think Rowley was actually the best ideological match for the district in quite a while. Certainly a better fit than... who was that Burnsville city council member in '04? Daly, Daley, something like that.

Still your point is well taken. I was thinking primarily in terms of Kline's incumbency and the enthusiasm he generates in the GOP. Of course the candidate and campaign matter. I wish Sarvi all the best, but frankly I still think a Sarvi win will require Kline doing something ridiculous.

thanks, tanuki, i just found sarvi's website. awesome resume. 1st of all i agree tha the 2nd is more republican than the 1st. nonetheless, sarvi is a much stronger candidate than rowley (who was undisciplined, could't raise money, and didn't match the district) and i don't think the environment is much better for republicans now than it was a year ago.

sarvi is attractive, he's a 20 year veteran, giving him gravitas on the number one issue in america, and he's won office before. if the folks in district 2 are ready for change, he's a more than palatable alternative.

it will be tough to win, no doubt, but to suggest that he would perform no better than rowley is to suggest that the quality of the candidate and the campaign is irrelevant to the results.

Sage, you're thinking of Steve Sarvi, ex-Watertown mayor and National Guardsman. He's a solid guy, but I don't see him doing any better than Rowley did last year. He doesn't have Walz's fire, and the 1st and 2nd are remarkably different districts.

Good point, ASP. Don't forget holding the legislature, we've got alot of folks from the suburbs with targets on their backs next year; Kate Knuth, Will Morgan, etc.

Chris wrote: "In 1994, the last time control of the House flipped..."

That is incorrect. The last time the House flipped control was 2006.

I'm surprised no other posters here caught this oversight. How soon we forget! ;-)

Thank you for the info st paul sage, much appreciated!

The other problem for Dems actually picking off Kline or Bachmann is resource-related. I'd expect the top-notch pickup opportunity in the Senate race against Coleman and the open Ramstad seat to absorb all the DFL's attention, volunteers, and money so there won't be too much left over for the tougher effort against those incumbents. (Barring a serious but I think unlikely tidal wave that sweeps through everyplace, like Murtha is now predicting).

the 3rd is a significant opportunity for democrats. bush won it by only a tiny bit in '00 and '04, klobuchar won it by a large margin in '06 and it is represented by more democratic legislators than republicans. the republican candidate will be a prolife conservative and the DFL candidate will probably be a moderate woman (i know lots of people of every description will be running on both sides - but that's how i think it will shake out).

as for the 6th (bachmann) and the 2nd (kline), they are both more republican and have incumbents so they will be tougher for a democrat obviously, but tinklenberg is a strong candidate and i hear that there is a sharp young army veteran similar to congressman walz running in the 2nd. i'm sorry i don't know the name.

the 3rd will be a tossup all the way unless one of the parties blows it.

reason says
"This district likely will stay Republican. That's my prediction."


Why?

"I like bathrooms

Posted by: rufus | September 18, 2007 09:20 AM
"

kEEP USING MY post name zouk. You have no chance with your posts. do what you do, just know I will call you on it

For those of you who suggest the Minn. airport is a freak show, you should really get out more. I was just there this past weekend. I have no idea which restroom Graig was in, and that's not on the mind of anyone in that airport. We were looking for our flight, and the closest bar if it were delayed. I used some restroom there just as I would have in any other airport, and noone was thinking about venturing around to ask which restroom sen. Graig was in. If people did talk politics in Minn., most of the political talk I heard was a conservative type immigration messege and people wanting funding to fix the bridges. They don't care about some Idaho senator's ventures in the restroom. Does anyone think Ramstad retired b/c he's ready to retire or move on in life? I do!

This district likely will stay Republican. That's my prediction.

I like bathrooms

The problem with a socially conservative democrat in Bachmann's district is that the DFL base will get suppressed. The DFL picked up legislative seats in St Cloud with pro-choice candidates. Bachmann's got the single issue anti-abortion people. I'm not sure how Elwyn Tinklenberg would be able to pick them off - especially since he's said different things on the record on that issue. His most recent Almanac interview, prior to the district convention when he lost to Patty Wetterling, he gave a pro-choice answer to the abortion question. He says he doesn't want to overturn Roe v Wade or criminalize abortion - he just wants to reduce the incidence of abortion. Well that position is pro-choice.

Speaking of homophobic, Denise Dittrich the democrat - who you mention, voted for the amendment to the MN constitution to ban gay marriage and legal equivalents - which means civil unions, domestic partnerships.

Maria Ruud and Melissa Hortmann are other legislators considering this.

Ryan, I can't say I see the 2nd swinging towards the Dems anytime soon. The southern suburbs have always been the most conservative part of the Twin Cities metro. The rural parts of the district are nothing like the Iron Range, they've been Republican turf for decades. Basically, without Northfield and some other parts of Rice County, the 2nd is a GOP fortress. Yes, the Dems picked up some legislative seats, but, and I say this as labor activist who worked my tail off to help pull it off, we were running against some insanely weak GOPers in a Dem year. Picking off a nutjob like Powell, the ex-State Rep and EMT who thinks the link between smoking and cancer is unproven, doesn't mean we're on our way to being competitive there.

I think you're mostly right about the 6th. I will say, though, that alot of Republicans up there are former conservative Dems, especially around St. Cloud. A conservative Dem like Tink might make it an interesting race, although Bachmann would still be a heavy favorite.

Thank you so much for your informative reply, Ryan!

Several factors contributed to Luther's defeat: (1) redistricting after the 2000 census; (2) a Republican-trending year in 2002; and (3) Kline's third attempt to knock him off. Luther took 50% in 1998 and 2000 against Kline, but fell to 42% after redistricting.

Kline is a good fit for the 2nd. But the next couple of election cycles will determine whether the 2nd CD is undergoing what Ramstad's 3rd CD is in the middle of: a Democratic trend. In Kline's 2nd CD in 2006, a couple of Democratic state legislative candidates knocked off Republican incumbents.

As for Bachmann, she is the most conservative member of Minnesota's delegation in its most conservative district. Democrats will dispute this, but it's her seat as long as she wants it.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that many GOPers have had the fight taken out of them by the reckless agenda of The Decider.

Raising campaign funds will be harder, defending their record will be double-speak, and campaigning while running away from their party leader will be a mine field.

Expect more disheartened Republican legislators to run out of political gas.

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

To drindl:

This is definitely not a record yet.

Thank you to those who have responded--I appreciate it very much! Just to follow up, didn't Bill Luther, a conservative Democrat hold John Kline's seat previously and lose in a Republican trending year? Or has the district added Republicans since then?

And then, of course, you got the conservatives telling you why the test is invalid. Like always. Makes the dittoheads feel better. So those dittoheads that care about that here's the other link.

http://www.slate.com/id/2173965/?GT1=10436

You can't have a scientific test without the gop telling you why it's false, after all

"--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Habitual way of thinking. Informational complexity. Need to change. Those are sweeping terms. They imply that conservatives, on average, are adaptively weaker at thinking, not just button-pushing. And that implication has permeated the press. The Los Angeles Times told readers that the study "suggests that liberals are more adaptable than conservatives" and "might be better judges of the facts." Agence France Presse reported that conservatives in the study "were less flexible, refusing to deviate from old habits 'despite signals that this ... should be changed.' " The Guardian asserted, "Scientists have found that the brains of people calling themselves liberals are more able to handle conflicting and unexpected information."
"

1

Like I said. The borg clones dittoheads.'

"Political scientists and psychologists have noted that, on average, conservatives show more structured and persistent cognitive styles, whereas liberals are more responsive to informational complexity, ambiguity and novelty. We tested the hypothesis that these profiles relate to differences in general neurocognitive functioning using event-related potentials, and found that greater liberalism was associated with stronger conflict-related anterior cingulate activity, suggesting greater neurocognitive sensitivity to cues for altering a habitual response pattern."

http://www.nature.com/neuro/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/nn1979.html

Kind, I doubt either one is actually vulnerable, although if El Tinklenberg actually gets into the race against Bachmann, it'll be interesting. Kline is more or less untouchable. He's actually, I hate to say, a good fit for the 2nd, outside of the couple small liberal strongholds down there.

I don't think Kline or Bachmann is likely to be vulnerable as incumbents without an unusually strong opponent. The most moderate suburbs are in Ramstad's district. Ramstad wouldn't have been vulnerable either if he'd stayed.

Good point about Ramstad's moderate record. Also, he built and maintained an impressive reputation as an upright, principled guy. I'm a stalwart liberal and I have to say we need more public servants like Jim Ramstad.

This district should immediately shift in everyone's rankings to Leans D. The MN GOP has an atrocious track record on nominating moderates lately; Alan Fine and Rod Grams are prominent examples of "moderates" that turned actual moderates off in droves. On the D side, State Senator Terri Bonoff or Andy Luger would be immediate front runners for the nomination and in the general.

I think this is great news for Democrats. By the way does bsimon or anyone else know if John Kline or/and Michelle Bachmann is vulnerable? John Kline is really, conservative and I hope he gets a strong challenge at least. You know, with Jim Ramstad retiring and others possibly also retiring or losing the next election, there may not be any moderate Republicans left in Congress in 2009!

""Bush friend's deal to hurt Iraq success?
Sept. 14: One of the president's friends is benefiting from an oil deal that threatens to rip Iraq apart. Talks on a law for Shi'ites, Sunnis and Kurds to share oil revenues fell through -- partially because of a new Kurd contract with Hunt Oil of Texas. Watch video"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/

Wacth it. And now that you know the truth will you change your tune? I doubt it

blue

The other indicator that this district is going to be difficult for R's to hold is the fact that Ramstad is quite moderate, partners with Dems all the time (including Senator Wellstone when he was alive), and especially on many key social and enviro issues is more like a Dem. In other words, another Michelle Bachmann type candidate probably cannot win the seat.

"Oh hey, Judge, did you know that particular bathroom had become a tourist attraction? No, I'm serious. Saw a story today..."

Yeah, it's kind of creepy. Wish I had that kind of spare time on my hands. Is there a condom dispenser in the bathroom? They should sell red, white and blue Larry Craig condoms; maybe with a little elephant on the top. Eeeew; it's a bad sign when you gross yourself out.

Face it, GOP, the suburbs are sick of you.

What a pity...not.

WOW. That is hard real stuff.

"They waive the flag when you attack. When you come home, they turn their back"

Dave Klein

www.crooksandliars.com

Wait, hasn't the media and the GOP been telling us that 2008 will be a comeback year because the Democrat Congress is so unpopular and the Republicans are "winning" the Iraq debate?

Apparently, no one told the ACTUAL REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS. They continue to run out the back door.

I really hope that Democrats win this seat, because I want the extremely homophobic, far right, mean-spirited governor Tim Pawlenty to continue to chase away voters. Funny how he is a "rising star" who has helped cost his party the state legislature and at least 1 House seat.

"Duh DUh DUh. Another one bites the dust"

Oh hey, Judge, did you know that particular bathroom had become a tourist attraction? No, I'm serious. Saw a story today...

"does Ramstad's district include the airport where Craig was tap dancing in the bathroom stalls?"

No. That would be Rep Ellison's district, which is where I live. Though Ramstad's district - and the gigamall - is a stone's throw South. If a stone's throw is roughly equivalent to a Woods T-shot.

Hmmmmm!

"I'm kindof curious what drove Rep Ramstad to this decision."

You might be able to answer your own question, bsimon: does Ramstad's district include the airport where Craig was tap dancing in the bathroom stalls? You can connect the dots on your own, I'm sure.

I'm kindof curious what drove Rep Ramstad to this decision. A month ago he walked with a rather impressive entourage in the annual 'Corn Days' parade in Long Lake, MN. It was a sea of Orange 'Ramstad' T-shirts that stretched half a block long (which is significant for a small-town parade). One would not have guessed a guy thinking about retirement would have bothered.

'Ramstad is the seventh House Republican to choose against running for re-election in 2008'

Can anyone tell me if this is a record?