Republicans can't have two middle-aged white men on the ticket. Ryan serves dual purposes. He improves your chances in the upper midwest battleground, he lends youthful vigor and acute intelligence to the bill, and he helps to buttress Republican claims to fiscal rectitude.

Palin is talent with all the Right credentials. Americans still pine for the frontier life, which exists only in Alaska at this point. Media interest in Palin would be huge.

Dave -- he left a larger rainy day fund than he inherited. Both houses of the Commonwealth's legislature were controlled by the GOP when the tax increase went into effect, so it was - by definition - a bipartisan agreement. DESPITE that increase, there is still a huge need for increased funds for transportation. If you want to label that tax and spend liberalism you're free to do so, but that strikes me as dogmatic in the extreme.

Oh, and I would suggest taking a look at the bond rating naratives leading up to Warner pushing through the tax increase. You're correct that Virginia's rating hadn't dropped, but that was on the table b/c of the structural funding issues that Gilmore left. There is a reason Warner was named Governor of the year by Time.

_Colin,

Afraid not. TMOPIA did not cut spending first - he used the rainy day fund and, contrary to what he campaigned on, reniged on the complete eliminiation of the car tax. He did, as I said, practice fiscal constraint early on (but that did not stop him from trying to raise taxes for several years - but he was rebuffed). You are correct that the there were a handful of Republicans that enabled TMOPIA to put through the largest tax increase in Virginia history (lead as I said by the traitorous Chichester). The tax increase allowed a HUGE increase in spending which had nothing to do with the states bond rating which has remained with the same rating since, I think, the 1930's. There was a recession, a dot-com bust and 9-11 that all severly impacted Virginia and its budget. But that was over by the time they got around to the biggest tax increase in Virginia history. It apparently was not too much of an increase for TMOPIA since he happily signed it. I do disagree with the increase but TMOPIA tried for several years to raise taxes and then signed off on a doozy so I don't think it is a stretch to label him tax and spend because the numbers support that conclusion. And idiot republicans don't change those numbers.

Dave -- your info about Warner is patently false. Gilmore destroyed the state's finances to the point that Virginia's bond rating was at risk. Warner, in response, first CUT SPENDING and then put together a bipartisan tax increase to stabalize the state's finances. At no point did Warner drain the rainy day fund -- that's just a lie. In fact, he turned over a health rainy day fund to his successor, another fiscally responsible Democrat.

Disagree with the tax increase if you want to, but it was passed by a republican controlled house and senate -- so it's pretty hard even for the Virginia GOP to argue that Warner somehow turned into a "liberal" after assuming office. He simply thought the Commonwealth ought to be managed responsibly, unlike Gilmore.

dave: Thanks for the info on Mark, I didn't go into his record closely, mainly looked at him as a VP choice for the dems, and he was my choice because he would be a pretty good bet to help the dems carry Va., which, IMO, could go either way for POTUS, and his run for the Senate will still help the dems.

I can't wait for Sen. Allen's big comeback -- for him to restore the Commonwealth of Virginia to responsible leadership.

sonomaca,
Sarah Palin might grab a few more percentage points of the woman vote than you may think. Part soccer mom, part outdoorswoman (lifetime member of the NRA, enjoys hunting, fishing, snowmobiling as well as commercial fishing), seemingly very competant and very likable. Her current unfavorable number is 5. One drawback is experience which she is lacking on a national level. The other is that carrying Alaska does not mean a whole lot in an election.

lylepink,
Mark Warner did a below average job at best as governor of VA. Despite that, he is popular and thus, gets my TMOPIA award. He campaigned on lowering taxes, fiscal restraint and bringing a business sense to government. Instead, along with the tratorist Chichester, proceeded to plunder the "rainy day" fund from Gilmore and condemn Virginians to the largest tax increase in their history. The current story goes that this was necessary to balance the budget and maintain Virginia's bond rating and thus, TMOPIA saved the day here in the old dominion. Nice story but mostly fiction (except the part about the tax increases).

Warner became a champion big spender after initially practicing fiscal restraint. Spending rose much faster than inflation, economic growth, and population growth, while Warner was governor of Virginia. (He received a "D" on the Cato Institute Fiscal Report Card of the Governors).
The Warner tax increase wasn't necessary to maintain a balanced budget. Soon after the tax increase was enacted, it turned out that Virginia would have run a surplus even without the tax increase, owing to increased revenues resulting from economic growth. And what happened to all that extra money? Did he give it back? Did he spend it on roads or transportation? Did he save it? No, he proceeded to increase spending on public employee salaries, education, and social services. He did so even though education and health spending and teacher pay had already been rising faster than inflation even before the tax increase.

TMOPIA.

Huckabee and Colin Powell?

Interesting Republican VP choices:

Sarah Palin
Lynn Swann
Mike Huckabee
Eric Cantor
Paul Ryan

Any other suggestions? I personally think Ryan or Palin are best choices. Both are future Presidential candidate material. Ryan might bring Wisconsin with him, and Palin might siphon offa percentage point or two from Hillary's female vote.

Huckabee has proven to be a great campaigner, and might inspire the Christian vote, especially if it's Rudy.

Lynn Swann is a very likable guy, although gets a bit tongue-tied at times. He might have appeal in PA and in tight states like VA, WV and KY (he hails from TN).

Cantor might solidify VA, and he's also a youthful rising star.

Of course, Pawlenty is one of the fav's, but I'd rather go with Ryan if you're aiming at the upper Midwest.

response to: (Lloth8 | October 20, 2007 06:26 AM)

Your assessment is accurate. In '06 I thought Dems would get close to, but not achieve, a majority in the Senate. As you mentioned, some of the states in play could be squeakers that go either way. Minnesota will be particularly interesting. Conventional wisdom says that Al Franken's running would be a fluke. But the state also elected an ex-wrestler to the governor's mansion, and the first Muslim to Congress, so the electorate seems to be more flexible than most. Maybe that's what American politics needs - more nonconventional candidates.

KOZ, I finally got to watch the "Frontline" I recorded earlier this week. It was a detailed study of Cheney, Addington, Yoo, and the push for a "unitary executive."

For the record, in case I have not been clear, it is a theory I reject. While the case law is largely "with me", it is not totally so, especially in wartime decisions.

Do you know if RG subscribes to this theory?

The key Senate races in 2008 appear to lie in the states of Oregon, Maine, Minnesota and New Mexico. In all these cases the outlook is unclear. They will make the difference whether the Dem pickup in 2008 is small (Virginia, N.H. and Colorado are likely takeovers) or large.

Alaska and Nebraska may be in play as well but at this point I am somewhat skeptical the Dems can capitalize in two deeply red states.

Survey USA (10/08) finds that Gov. Richardson and Rep. Udall would beat any of the Republicans in a Senate race there. It finds that any other Democrat would lose--Madrid 45% to Wilson 46%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

dave: You have me a little confused by your latest few posts, i.e...12:01 AM, Mark warner, in Va., did a good job as Gov. and along with John Warner, is the most liked pol in Va. 12:15 AM, Trying to figure milbrooks27 is very easy, for months he has been one of the most vicious "Hillary Haters" on this cite, although using the name MikeB and claiming to be something he is not. Several of the regulars are aware of this. 01:39 AM, These unfavorable ratings are mostly from the far-right and repubs in general. Try the "Net" system I mentioned a few days ago and you get another, I think Truer, picture.

JasonL_in_MD,
Those poll numbers tell you the breath of HRC's unfavorables. What they fail to provide is the depth of her unfavorables. Those that dislike her, really really dislike her.

mibrooks27,
"As for Dem's I would support - Edwards, Obama, Biden...someone honest..."

Sometimes I just can't figure you. How you could put the name Edwards in a sentence with "honest" truly mystifies me. He is not a real populist nor is he really interested in the plight of the middle class unless there is a buck to be made from it in court.

Virginia
I have no idea what the Virginia GOP is thinking going the convention route. Suicide comes to mind. The fact of the matter is that Davis is the only candidate capable of competing against TMOPIA (The Most Overrated Politician In America). 30 points is nothing since the poll also states that 54 percent of Virginia voters have no opinion of Davis (probably because they don't know him outside of his district). TMOPIA is vulnerable to the right candidate. The VA GOP don't seem to understand who that is.

"In 2006, Gov. Sarah Palin (R)[Alaska] ran on a reform platform -- and against many of the graybeards in her party -- and remains the most popular politician in the state."

Sarah Palin is apparently the most popular governor in America with approval ratings in the 90s. She is fairly conservative. She won easily in 2006, quite an accomplishment for a Republican. There have been rumors that Palin is considering a run for a Senate seat. That event would put this race in the bottom 10. I can't say that I really follow Alaska politics, but I have seen and watched her and she is downright impressive. She is one to keep an eye on in the future on a national level.

Stevens numbers may be in a slow and steady decline but he has been so popular that the decline has a ways to go before panic sets in. That said, Alaskans are tired of scandal and that should boost any one with a clean record. Begich is a Democrat that believes in balancing the budget, eliminating unnecessary government programs and focusing on growing the economy in Anchorage. I think most conservatives could live with that if they had to.

Clinton also won NM both times. It's definitely a battleground state that Dems can win in the prez. election. Immigration reform could be the wildcard.

FTD, Alzheimer's...I think the rumor mill is more familiar with Alzheimer's (especially after Reagan), but in any case he's in no shape to be a senator, and I'm curious how you know he has FTD.

How was the 43rd Dems meeting this week? Still not getting any communication from the group despite being a PCO.

Yes on Roads & Transit!!

Coattails have been dead in US politics for some time now. We lost seats in the House and Senate while Clinton ousted Bush in 1992. Until 2000, straight party voting had a precipitous decline that went back to the Vietnam/Watergate era. Increasingly, I've heard talk of reverse coattail phenomena, where lower ballot races can spill upward--not to mention ballot measures like gay marriage or minimum wage. The lack of coattails for a particular presidential candidate has little or nothing to do with them; it has to do with the nature of voting patterns that have changed.

CC: I just remembered Senator Dole and the comment I made months ago about how she is in trouble mainly because of the interview on one of the Sunday shows. I have seen nothing about how she is doing, even if she plans to seek re-election or not. Hope someone has something on this, for I think 08 will be the year of the woman/women, with Hillary at the top.

"she spews hate and bigotry and vitriol"

but that is all you do on this site. why aren't you rich? Maybe its because coulter makes sense.

I guess Verizon and AMEX weren't paying today, so you went back to your hippie roots - senseless rabble rousing and annoyance of congress on the phone to pretend anyone really cares what you think. not much of a response huh? that must play right into your paranoid delusions about fascism, treachery and evil Repubs. for all your corporate bashing, i guess you are happy to cash their checks.

you already know what I do for a living. I work for the RNC posting to blogsites all day. we are convinced we can win over millions of voters this way. a really smart and well-balanced Lib told us so.

OK, you can tell I am kidding by the use of smart and well-balanced Lib. Of course there is no such thing.

'You must wonder why Ann Coulter is a millionaire while you
wallow in self-pity and anger. We don't.'

Ann Coulter is a millionaire because she spews hate and bigotry and vitriol, for which there is a big market among people like you.

As for the folks who pay me to write, they include left-wing bastions like Verizon, American Express, and The Economist.

And what was it that you said you did for a living, again? I don't believe you've ever mentioned it, strangely..

I have a payng job, zouk -- I'm a writer.

If that bothers you, you can go f*ck yourself.

Posted by: claudialong | October 19, 2007 05:08 PM

Clearly a very eloquent one at that. So who in their right mind would pay you to write, if it is anything like the garbage you post here? I must assume your skills as a writer leave you loads of time to visit blogs all day. that market thing is so perplexing to you Libs. You must wonder why Ann Coulter is a millionaire while you wallow in self-pity and anger. We don't.

Hey, Jason, I'm just a little old middle-aged housewife and mom. Like zouk says, a 'smelly old hippie.' With a few rather fervently held beliefs...

Mark, it's hard to know what's happening with Dodd's hold. I read this morning that Reid was going to basically ignore it and hold a floor vote in mid-November, so I called Reid's office to try to find out what was happening. The aide who answered just kept agreeing with me and so I said what's going on then? And he said he didn't know. I said, 'find out' and took his name and said I would call him back. A lot of people called him today, so he better come up with a statement.

And Mikeb, that was intemperate of me. But the 'spoiled' thing really irrittated me. I have to admit, I don't really understand what you mean when you say 'feminist.' What does that mean to you? All I ever thought it was, was wanting equal pay for equal work, education, access to contraception, and the ability to choose what you want to do wiith your own life.

I've been married for 25 years, to a man I actually still love, so afraid I can't qualify as a man-hater.

"90% are from women and the vast majority of them either have deep seated psychological problems or they are nut cases" -mibrooks

And I suppose you have a degree in psychology or at least sociology to back up that statement? Is that you, Dr. Laura?
----
"How dare you? What do you know about me? All I want is the same money if I'm doing the same jjob as a man. If that bothers you, you can go f*ck yourself." -Claudia

Holy crap. Mibrooks, if I were you I'd back away slowly. I'm pretty sure she could kick your a$$.

I know she scares me.

jaymills - Even Cornyn has fewer $$ on hand than Watts!

drindl, what is the status of Dodd's "hold?"

'witness snot nosed spoiled feminists like Cludia here, '

My goodness, I certainly am the target of a lot of abuse here. what nerves have I hit?

Buddy boy, I grew up in a working class family and had to fight--and work very hard to put myself through college. My parents didn't wnat me to go. Went to school full time and worked full time. Nearly killed me, but I never took a cent from anyone.

How dare you? What do you know about me? All I want is the same money if I'm doing the same jjob as a man. If that bothers you, you can go f*ck yourself.

jaymills - the SA Express News thinks the $8m Watts has raised will not be enough to beat Noriega [$500k] in the D primary. Quote:

The Hispanic voter turnout in Texas still is not heavy enough to have a major impact on a general election, but in the Democratic primary, Latinos make up as much as 35 percent of the vote. And their vote in the past has favored candidates of the same ethnicity.

'Maybe a paying job would suit you. '

I have a payng job, zouk -- I'm a writer. And you?

HRC cannot win becasue of how she is viewed AND becasue of what she has done. Her supporters, witness snot nosed spoiled feminists like Cludia here, don't much help her, either. I invite everyone to go over to her web page and just read the posts. 90% are from women and the vast majority of them either have deep seated psychological problems or they are nut cases so far from the mainstream that most voters would be terrified. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if GOP operatives weren;t over there copying some of the more lunatic ones. I certainly would, if I were planning on running against her - "Here's the thoughts of a typical Clinton supporter, one of the minions to whom she owes so much...".

As for Dem's I would support - Edwards, Obama, Biden...someone honest, someone with a clue as to the plight of the Middle Class and a sense of the danger that globalization presents and isn't beholden to some corporations to just make this disaster look pretty. End it! There are even a few Republican's that are genuine populists - Huckabee and Thompson come readily to mind. These guys understand that globalization and unfettered free trade are undermining this country. Every one of them proposes to place restrictions and curbs on free trade, on guest workers, on outsourcing, on technological transfers, and on other corporate excesses. Clinton, by way of contrast, actually WONS a company that provides outsourcing services, recruits guest workers, actually aides in the displacement of older Amercian engineers and programmers! THAT is why the Chinese and Indian governments are funnelling money to her candidacy. HRC is directly reponsible for the loss of tens of thousands of U.S. jobs. Her Indian subsidiary created TEN jobs in the U.S. and she points to that as proof that her corporate activities result in the creation of jobs here. BS! She is as much a thief as any corporate CEO and anyone even contemplating voting for her is flat out insane....and my enemy.

jaymills, its Lt. Col. Noriega to you!

Someone from TX active in the D Party explained here that the national party wants Mikal Watts, who can fund his own campaign and who sounds a lot like a less magnolia blossom version of John Edwards when he speaks. As you know, the Ds in the TX Lege and the old leaders like Briscoe and Hobby love Rick N.

I think a D has a chance against Cornyn but I disagree with you about the emotional response. I do not think he raises much emotional response at all. And my sense is that Lt. Col. Noriega, late of Afghanistan and Hurricane Katrina and the Lege, has the better shot, but nowhere near the money Watts can raise. HRC might kill any slim chance Noriega would have, imho.

If Kay comes "home", the Rs could run Susan Combs in the 2010 special election for Senate, who would have to be strongly favored against any D, imho.

End of break.

Claudia/drindl, do I think the GOP is a 'negative' party? In many ways, yes.

Do I think the Dems obstruct and criticize without offering solutions? Sure, all the time; Social Security is Exhibit A. Followed by Gitmo, dealing with radicals, and on and on.

But the GOP seems to enjoy that role more, if you get my drift.

I must respond to the Maine is closer to the national median than Montana. I don't know what it takes to demonstrate that Democrats are stong in Montana and we are not a "Red State" when it comes to state and congressional politics. Four out of five state-wide elected state office holders are DEmocrats, including the Governor. The Montana Legislature was split this year, the Senate controlled by Democrats, the House by Republicans -- each by just one vote.

Both US Senators from Montana are now Democrats. Historically Montana has had only two Republican Senators in the past 100 years. Montana is a purple, very independant-thinking state. We passed medical marijuana here, while in the same election banning gay marriage. If Democrats at the national level can't get our electoral votes, it's because they've not bothered to come to the state and ask for our vote.

Our Senate race for the seat of our senior senator, Max Baucus, is shaping up to a no-contest.

The only announced Republican challenger, Mike Lange, is in discrace after a profanity-laced tirade against the governor, which made national television. He was ousted as House majority leader by his own party. He has not raised any significant money and likely won't.

In the wings is former Republican State Senate President Bob Keenan of Bigfork. Keenan chalolenged Conrad Burns for the Republican nomination in 2006. But he's been vacillating between filing for Governor or the Senate. Both are uphill battles and Keenan may finaly decide to sit this one out.

"Yes, S-chips and Iraq are important, but as you say, this galloping trend to dictatorship is the worst of all. Because ultimately, it will get us into WW3 and that's where we are headed, very quickly.

Posted by: claudialong | October 19, 2007 09:29 AM
mike, i fear you are revealing more about yourself than you might realize, or wish.

Posted by: claudialong | October 19, 2007 03:43 PM "

Been here all day giving out free advice and psychoanalysis. the advice is worth what you pay and the analysis was learned from the other end of the couch, clearly.

Drindl, maybe some fresh air, a visit to the "redneck" bar or even a totally new hobby is in order. Maybe a paying job would suit you. does anyone still pay for 1950s era communist propoganda any more?

RNC Chairman Mel Martinez quits!

Another rat has left the stinking, sinking ship.

'She is a radical feminist nightmare... a paranoid man hating psychological mess. '

mike, i fear you are revealing more about yourself than you might realize, or wish.

Mibrooks and others, I can't seem to figure out why people think that HRC is so unelectable. Her unfavorables are not much higher than other cadidates for Pres, red and blue. Last I heard, all but one had unfavorables over 40%, too.

From the Huffpost (and another, more in-depth source that I can't find right now):
"However, a review of historical Gallup data suggests that contrary to Rove's assertions, her current image ratings do not necessarily spell defeat. Clinton's current unfavorable ratings are in reality not much different from what other past candidates have had in the year they won the election. Second, her image has been more negative than positive several other times during the past 15 years, but often has recovered and could do so again. Last, despite Clinton's high unfavorables, she remains competitive with the Republican candidates in Gallup's presidential test elections."

mibrooks-ok we can understand why you dont want hillary as the nom. just out of curiostity who do you support out of the dems?

anyways just found out that tim johnson of south dakota is running for re-election. if anyone is keeping score, take SD out of the in trouble column for the dems, for now.

The true believers here are ignoring the Clinton factor. There are A LOT of Democratic voters, like me, that will never vote for Clinton. She is a radical feminist nightmare, anti-worker, pro-outsourcing, pro-guest worker, gun control fanatic, corrupt and crooked, a paranoid man hating psychological mess. Go take a few minutes and read the poss from her supporters on her web site's blog and you'll see the sort of lunatics she attracts. Now, I've NEVER voted for a Republican in my life, but I will vote for Gulianni in a heartbeat over Hillary Clinton. Something no one is talking about right now is the very real fact that about 1/3 of all Democratic voters will desert the party en mass if Clinton is the nominee. No Democratic candidate can hope to win without blue dog Democratic voters and we loathe Hillary Clinton more than even Bush. That will cost Democrats their anticipated gains in the Senate, House, even local offices. It may even cost them their majority. Bush and his nutcases aside, people are worried about the economy! The dollar has fallen to an all time low against every major world currency. The price of oil looks like it will exceed $100 a barrel. Since inflicting this globalization and outsourcing nonsense on us (and Clinton OWNS a company that handles these for corporations) the Democratic leadership hasn't done anything other than propose lengthening unemployment compensation for displaced American workers. How lame! The Democratic leadership even added provision to the recently defeated immigration bill that would have allowed even more H1-B workers at a time when 30% of our own programmers and engineeers are unemployed. Kennedy, Pelosi, Clinton, are all prime sponsors of this train wreck. If a Republican candidate appears that acknowledges that globalization is dangerous (and Huckabee and Thompson have), and run a campaign against Clinton on that basis, she will be simply crushed in an election. Her "coat tails" will bring down Democrats all across the board.

claudialong-yeah your right. when presented with hillary or 4 more years of gop bumbling(or worse) ill just bite my tounge and write that 100 dollar check to the hillary campagin.

borat and dinner jacket in the same room? can someone set that up and get a camera in there? pure comedy gold!

'with the added point that the netroot left will basically sit out, '

I don't think so. I know lots of bloggers --someof the bigger ones- and they don't love her, but we all fear another republican who will basically be no different than bush more than anything else. She, I fear, will be a lot like Bush, but I think not as bad, because she's not a dry drunk with an Apocalyptic viewpoint.

I certianly perfer Obama, but it's sad, somehow it always comes down to the lesser of two evil in politics these days--the corporations buy and install whomever they want.

Hey jaymills -- I thought 'Dinner Jacket' WAS borat...

Sen Domenici has FTD, not Alzheimers. Frontal Temporal Dementia basically reduces your inhibitions, as well as messes with your ability to correctly view time.

There is a difference, although it is possible to have FTD and then develop Alzheimer's.

But both are incompatible with serving in public office, IMHO.

bsimon-every time i hear about stevens, its usally about corruption, i would feel better if someone would replace stevens in alaska. personally i would drag mike gravel out of the race and have him run for senate in alaska. he's not doing anyone favors and the outsider canidate has been already taken by ron paul(now i consider him to be top tier)

and kudos for the "im a dinner jacket" comment, this guy is begging for someone like borat to interview him.

errinfamilia writes
"Democratic voters will vote for her, Republican voters will vote against her, and the swing vote will go Democratic thanks to Bush and Iraq. Your average swing voter isn't going to vote for four more years of Bush-Republicanism just to spite Hilary Clinton."

As a swing voter, I dispute your claim.

However, rather than bicker about who will or won't vote for her, I'll ask:

Why is she a better candidate than any of her competitors for the Dem nomination? She can't make up her mind whether negotiating with Iran is 'naive and irresponsible' or decisive leadership. She won't give a straight answer on Iraq either. On domestic initiatives, she seems to be throwing programs at the wall to see what will stick. In short, I don't know what she stands for & am left to think that, like the current WH occupant, she'll say anything to get elected, leaving us blind as to how she'd actually govern. Given the lessons learned over the last 7 years, how is that intended to win my vote?

jaymills, nicely done lines - I particularly like the idea of the 'sleeper line'. Regarding the comment that, in AK, "im sure the stench of corruption will resonate up in the far north," what you're smelling is the methane released by the thawing of the permafrost. Which is intended as a metaphor of some kind, though I'm not sure what. Stevens, like Craig, is doing his party no good by maintaining his seat further into the cycle.

The more I see the 'Hilary can't win' rants, the more I realize how baseless and deluded they are. Plenty of males will vote for Hilary. That issue can easily be neutralized by bringing out Bill Clinton and reminding 'the males' that Bill will be in the White House along with Hilary. The people that hate Hilary are under the delusion that most people share that hate. They do not. Democratic voters will vote for her, Republican voters will vote against her, and the swing vote will go Democratic thanks to Bush and Iraq. Your average swing voter isn't going to vote for four more years of Bush-Republicanism just to spite Hilary Clinton.
The Washington Post just had a poll last week that demonstrated that Hilary would win a general election if it were held today. Those great negatives that are supposed to drag her down aren't dragging her down at all. Those who get all bent out of shape over Hilary are blind to the political realities that outweigh her supposed negatives by a longshot. Hilary just isn't that controversial when it comes down to it, and many people are willing to vote for her.

Posted by: dark_scot | October 19, 2007 10:30 AM: " 1) NM: Don't see much evidence for your assertion that the state is trending Democratic. Bush carried it narrowly in 2004 after losing narrowly in 2000. Wilson held her House seat in a tough race in 2006 ... blah blah blah"

So, you want some evidence that Democrats are strongly favored this year in NM? Here are a couple pertinent items:

1) Both Rep. Steve Pearce and Rep. Heather Wilson have strong negatives against them. Pearce is one of the most pro-Bush politicians in the House; state-wide that is political suicide and his nomination would sink GOP chances for the Senate seat. Heather has severely sullied her reputation with the US Attorney scandal, the second shoe of which has yet to drop (Ethic Committee hearings next year?) Heather squeaked by against a poor Demo candidate last time; that won't be the case this time, even assuming she gets the primary nod (which is increasingly unlikely). Heather's declarations of being "independent" in her voting are starting to sound hollow even among the little folk who know she votes with Bush most of the time.

2) A powerful and popular Democratic governor Bill Richardson who seems to be running to be the next U.S. Secretary of State. Bill is very involved in state, politics and will do what is needed to place ALL New Mexico Congressional seats in the Democratic column. Maybe even run for the Domenici Senate seat himself if the Demo winner in Iowa & New Hampshire doesn't want him as their Sec. of State.

3) New Mexico has a continuing, high-profile (here in NM at least) National Guard presence in Iraq and the body bags are trickling back. The grieving parents may want some answers as to why their kids died unnecessarily for Bush's vanity war in Iraq. State Republicans have been so strongly for the war, they may not be the party people here want.

4) The NM State Republican Party is crippled by colliding personal factions and lots of public infighting. Power grabs within the NMGOP have vastly reduced its effectiveness, which was never all that great to begin with. They are, demographically, a much smaller percentage of the population after all.

5) NM Democrats have a highly organized and united party at the moment, probably mostly because of the powerful governor who keeps things running smoothly.

6) Supposedly out-of-the-running Democratic Rep. Tom Udall would be a shoo-in for Domenici's seat (poll numbers confirm this) and a "Draft Tom" campaign is just starting. There will be a viable Democratic candidate eventually be it Tom, Bill or whoever.

7) The only possible way Republicans can win the Domenici Senate seat is if Democrats nominate a weak candidate such as Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez. He has never gotten significant support in Albuquerque and plays even less well outside of Albuquerque. Big Bill will not allow Marty to ruin the Demo chances on this seat by winning the primary, so I'm looking for movement on this by the end of the year.

Any astute political observer here in New Mexico will tell you that the difference in prospects for the two parties this election season are striking and unprecedented in over a generation. If the Republicans can keep Rep. Pearce's seat down south, that might be considered a victory out here.

This, more than any previous state election in memory, looks to be heavily favoring Democrats in New Mexico.

mibrooks27-im not sure what your getting at other than it appears that one area, contributed more this cycle than last cycle. but you do have a point a bout a hillary candiacy, with the added point that the netroot left will basically sit out, basically leaving hillary with a ever shrinking center. but of course if its a hrc/rudy g general election, i still see both right and left wings of the party breaking off and launching 3rd party bids.

its not a pretty picture if you think about it.

but if this fundraising story does hurt HRC then its a opening for either obama or edwards. thats the gamble for the gop, if hillary is the nom, they can at least keep the white house in their hands for at least another 4 years. if it ends up that hillary isnt the nom and they get rudy or romney as the gop nom, or a brokered convention canidate, the gop loses the white house.

kingofzouk spent all of 2006 talking about how the Republicans were going to win that election. He was wrong then and he is wrong now. Somebody who identifies so personally with a political party is either too brainwashed or too unhinged. When will people like kingofzouk realize that their Republican politicians could give a f*ck about them?

'Any candidate run by the Republican's that is even marginally clean will beat Clinton soundly. When faced with the reality of a Clinton candidacy, the FUndimentalist will flock back to the GOP. '

Sorry guy, you should read more. a lot of the Fundies are more afraid of Guiliani or Romney than they are Hillary. And in any case, there's only two 'marginally clean' R candidates -- Huckabee and McCain... and both are low in the polls and financing.

At last the media is starting to write about some of the more unsavory aspects of Clinton's character. Hopefully its in time to deep six her candidacy. In the LA Times, today, there is another story of illegal campaign contributions. This time, however, they are close to tracing it to foreign firms and governments, who are filtering that money through frontmen here. Clinton has been spending a lot of time with Inidan and CHinese businessmen and government officials and it doesn't require much imagination to realize that she has set this garbage up herself. I guess you can't teach and old dog new tricks, Clinton is up to her usual underhanded, illegal activities.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-donors19oct19,0,4231217.story?coll=la-home-center

"Something remarkable happened at 44 Henry St., a grimy Chinatown tenement with peeling walls. It also happened nearby at a dimly lighted apartment building with trash bins clustered by the front door.

And again not too far away, at 88 E. Broadway beneath the Manhattan bridge, where vendors chatter in Mandarin and Fujianese as they hawk rubber sandals and bargain-basement clothes.

All three locations, along with scores of others scattered throughout some of the poorest Chinese neighborhoods in Queens, Brooklyn and the Bronx, have been swept by an extraordinary impulse to shower money on one particular presidential candidate -- Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Dishwashers, waiters and others whose jobs and dilapidated home addresses seem to make them unpromising targets for political fundraisers are pouring $1,000 and $2,000 contributions into Clinton's campaign treasury. In April, a single fundraiser in an area long known for its gritty urban poverty yielded a whopping $380,000. When Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) ran for president in 2004, he received $24,000 from Chinatown."

Any candidate run by the Republican's that is even marginally clean will beat Clinton soundly. When faced with the reality of a Clinton candidacy, the FUndimentalist will flock back to the GOP. In the meanwhile, *every* blue dog Democrat, and every male with brains who wants to keep their privates intact, will flee Clinton and the Democratic Party. That leaves Clinton with her band of feminist fruitbats, the security moms, and associated male bedwetters - no more than 45% of all voters, even in these post Bush years of fanaticism and fear and smear politics
that simply isn't enough votes to win.

Bush Family Planning Appointee Called Contraceptives Part Of The 'Culture Of Death' »

On Monday, President Bush appointed Susan Orr to oversee federal family planning programs at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

But a look at Orr's record shows that her strongest qualifications appear to be her right-wing credentials and endorsement of the Bush administration's failed abstinence-only policies. Before joining HHS, Orr served as senior director for marriage and family care at the conservative Family Research Council and was an adjunct professor at Pat Robertson's Regent University. '

Another brilliant mind from Regent's. Jeez, how many hundreds does that make now? And yes, the religious agenda IS not only to get rid of abortion, but also contraception. These people can't wait to get back to the Dark Ages.

thanks for the 'dinner jacket' judge -- that helps. It's particularly fitting considering the guy's 'sartorial flair'.

Breaking News: Mel Martnez resigns as RNC head
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071019/ap_on_eWASHINGTON - Mel Martinez, the public face of the Republican National Committee as its general chairman, announced Friday he was stepping down from his post after serving only 10 months.

"I believe that our future as a party and nation is bright and I have every intention of continuing to fight for our president, our party, and our candidates," the Florida senator said in a statement.

He said he was relinquishing the post to spend more time focusing on his constituents, and because the RNC reached the objective it set out to when he assumed the role last fall.

Translation-Howard Dean is beating me like a pinata in fundrasing and getting blamed for losing the 2008 general election isnt in my future, i got my own problems to worry about in 2010.

"3)Idaho-let me put it this way, the longer larry craig stays in office the the better the dems chances are. even if he's not on the ballot. plus the potential gop primary may just have a weak nominee."

Yep, it's the Gay, Old Party (GOP) for the forseeable future!

bsimon: I think it's pretty clear that they'll either form a third party or stay home. See http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/18/AR2007101802579.html?nav=hcmodule

Drindl: thanks for the quote from Stark. He's merely stating what a lot of people outside the Beltway are thinking.

Oh, and use Katie Couric's trick when trying to remember the name of Iran's President : "I'm a dinner jacket."

sorry had to break that up, i dont want folks thinking im che or zouk with the long posts.

ok here's my sleeper picks.

1)Alaska-i would consider it a christmas miracle if Ted "internet tubes"Stevens doesnt get indicted by the end of the year. all the DSCC has to do is find a canidate and start airing ad's. im sure the stench of corruption will resonate up in the far north.

2)Louisania-John Kennedy has two bad things going for him. 1) as soon as he wins the state treasurer election, he has to hit the ground running for a senate campagin,and 2) a closed primary, where a far right canidate can beat him. Mary Landrieu, is still raising money and im sure the dems will fight tooth and nail to keep this seat.

3)Texas-yeah i said it Texas. John Cornyn is deeply unpopluar right now and if the tx-dems get a strong canidate now(yes im looking at you lt.rick noregia) the lone star state may turn a little blue, and set up a good challenge when kay huchinson leaves in 2010 or earlier.

3)Idaho-let me put it this way, the longer larry craig stays in office the the better the dems chances are. even if he's not on the ballot. plus the potential gop primary may just have a weak nominee.

4)nebraska-bob kerrey run already, its a open seat for crying out loud. if not then its a easy gop hold.

5)Oklahoma- Jim Inhofe should be safe this cycle, but in a dem wave year he should be looking over his shoulder right now.

well thats my thoughts on the matter.

Reid & Company never for a moment imagined that anyone would characterize their act as bullying a free press and possibly even raising First Amendment issues. Because Clear Channel hold many radio licenses from the federal government, it is very vulnerable to pressure from the government, and the words "chilling effect" do not seem outrageously out of place in evaluating the intended consequence of the Senate Majority Leader's letter. Interviewed on Hannity & Colmes Thursday evening, Rush called the letter "neo-Stalinist."

The letter is, in fact, an important historical document, representing an attempt to silence the single most prominent private citizen critic of the Democratic Party, written on official stationery of the Majority Leader of the United States Senate and bearing the signatures of the vast majority of his caucus, including the front-runner and other candidates for the Party's presidential nomination. Should the purchaser be so-minded, it may someday be donated to the Smithsonian Institution, National Archives or some other nonprofit library or archive.

The mainstream media have taken a beating in viewership and readership and in credibility the past two decades that Rush Limbaugh has been on the air, and the Democrats are perpetually outraged that he dominates the entire medium of talk radio, while no liberal host has ever been able to mount a halfway comparable performance on the public airwaves.

Arrogance combined with the emotion of hate leads to dangerous mistakes. Reid and the media which gave initial credence to the Media Matters-generated smear of Rush have stepped in something whose smell may linger in the history of American politics.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/10/the_medias_dilemma.html

See, Libs can be funny. except we are laughing at them.

Why would I speculate about elections which are over a year away when actual news is happening today which is much more pertinent to the election.

the Dems continue to propose losing ideas and their approvals sink further.

the Dems continue to employ the warped views of the leftists media, which has few actual consumers any more.

the Dems continue to allow non-answers and avoidance by its candidates, who promise constantly changing policies.

the Dems sink further every day into classless and futile rants over failed initiatives, yesterday they mixed SCHIP with Bush's personal amusement about military deaths.

Al gore wins a "peace prize" for a movie which lies about global warming. A judge rules it is replete with lies. It doesn't even take a scientist to see the falsehoods - a lawyer sees right through them. the Dems wish he would save them from Hillary.

Pelosi wishes to ram through some proclamation about the Ottoman empire, even if Turkey retaliates.

Dirty Harry tries to hide his ineptitude by going after Rush on trumped up lies. Rush turns it into a bonanza for a military charity. this is the best thing Reid has done for the troops all year, unwittingly, of course.

With these daily comedies of errors by the Dems, I think the real issue is if the Dem brand will still even be taken seriously by next year. the country will realize that they don't want any Dems who subscribe to the wacko wing of politics, which seems to be enveloping most of the old school Dems. the down ticket from hillary is going to be extremely damaged.

Remember how they tried to villify the gingrinch congress. Just wait for the Reid /Pelosi adds. It seems most Libs don't understand that bush is not running again. who will they aim their malfeasance toward? I don't think the deranged behavior brought on by gore's loss will go away, rather it will morph onto a new target of opportunity.

http://action.chrisdodd.com/signUp.jsp?key=1570

Sign Chris Dodd's petition to stop the new FISA law...

And to clarify my last statement... when I said Republicans are going to a closed primary, I meant they are only allowing Republicans in it. Democrats are allowing Ds and Is in theirs. Until now, Louisiana has had a completely open primary in which everyone runs against everyone and the top two vote getters- regardless of party- go into a runoff as long as the frontrunner didn't top 50%.

I wish I could agree with some of the observations about Mary Landrieu being very popular in her home state. Unfrotunately, there is some really unfounded vitriol against Mary down here. Most of it is unfair and shows some of the seedier elements of Louisiana.

With that being said, however, I do like Mary's chances right now. Her favorability numbers are higher than ever, and it's barely a year away and there are no announced challengers. John Kennedy is not a very good campaigner and frankly I worry about his chances getting the nomination (Louisiana goes to closed primaries next year, and Republicans have opted for the closed primary, which doesn't bode well for the more moderate Kennedy). He could very well lose to a Tony Perkins-esque nutjob in the primary.

But, Mary has never gotten over 52%, the last time going to a runoff with a no name New Orleans city councilwoman who was a terrible candidate.

You never know with Loutisiana...

CC, interesting line up you got there. but i would have at least cut it down to 5 but hey its your blog.

with 2008 looking more and more like a repubican bloodbath, i would like to start my own line with top five sure bets and 5 sleeper picks! and a way we go!!!

sure bets
1)Virgina-can anyone stop Mark Warner? i doubt anyone can muster money and name recongition to even challenge him right now. and with the va-gop going with the state convention route, jim gilmore is the sacrifical lamb in this election.

2)New Hampshire-the same as Virgina but Senator Sunnunu's political future is going the way of the dodo, and the 8 track tape. Jeanne Shaheen is still leading in the polls and may only face a token primary challenge

3)Minnesota-i would have to agree with CC's analysis but once the primaries are over and the first al franken ad airs, it could be over for coleman.

4)New Mexico-this state would have been ranked higher if either Bill Richardson,lt.gov Diane Denish or tom udall, but a nasty primary between reps. pearce and heather wilson is brewing. who ever wins that will lose to the dem nominee yet to be named.

5)Maine-really its not even worth mentioning. susan collins is running against a guy who's house district is half the state, and in a political environment thats toxic to any moderate? dont expect to see a win for her on election night.

'drindl, I see you have been over-caffeinated again. Step back from the keyboard. take a breath'

LOL -- from someone who used to post 200 times a day on this board, and will be on here with his lies and rants all day.

Take a look in the mirror, zouk, and ask yourself why you project all your own actions on other people. Whatever you accuse people of here is always exactly what you yourself are doing. Seems to be a republican trait. Wonder what's up with that?

Whatever happened to coattails in races? Is there any presidential nominee who can bring senate wins in on their coattails? Will there be "one party" or "one issue" voting?

Actually, I think the timid and disappointing performance of the Dem congress has diminished the likelyhood of a coattail effect on congressional races if Clinton is the presidential nominee, as seems likely.

With a fractured GOP electorate, the coattails factor doesn't seem to work either.

What's hard to measure is the voters "disgust." It's widespread and where it is aimed may be the factor that has coattails. Which should be worrying for the Dems since the polls rank their congressional performance lower than The Decider's.

http://whathappenedtomycountry.blogspot.com

Speaking of hissy fits, these people are going to overdose on smelling salts and phony sanctimony if they don't watch out. It's about once a week now, isn't it? Someone bring me mah fan, I feel a faint comin on...

'House Republicans objected today to comments made by outspoken liberal Democratic Rep. Pete Stark of California on the Iraq war during debate on the override of President Bush's veto of the children's health program.

Speaking on the House floor, Stark said, "Under the Republican plan, by 2017, we probably will have killed 20,000 soldiers in Iraq, spending $200 billion."

Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas) rose to protest the remark and asked that Stark's words be taken down, a formal procedure to punish a member of Congress for breaching the House's standards of decorum.'

Still smarting from the shaming of one of the Democrats' most powerful grassroots movements, the liberal activist group Media Matters for America accused conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh of calling soldiers who protest the Iraq war "phony soldiers."

Except he didn't. Any honest person who listens to what Rush actually said realizes that it's obvious that he was referring to war protesters who falsely claim that they served in the Armed Forces when they didn't, as in the recently publicized case of Jesse MacBeth.

So now it was the Democrats' turn to resort to "cheap political points" as opposed to addressing the "deadly serious challenge we face in Iraq." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid hastily put together a highly publicized letter condemning Limbaugh for something he didn't say, co-signed by 40 Democratic senators, including Clinton and Obama. The letter was then sent to Mark Mays, CEO of radio behemoth Clear Channel, which syndicates Limbaugh's show.

The corporate brass promptly ignored the criticisms, obviously having taken the two minutes necessary to listen to what Rush said, but here's where it gets interesting.

To capitalize on the media furor over these empty gestures, Reid's letter was put up for sale on eBay with the proceeds going to charity. And not just any charity, mind you: the Marine Corps-Law Enforcement Foundation.

Up past 2 million now Dirty Harry. you are now officially a joke.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDBiYTZhNzM1YTM4N2YwNDk3ODExZDllMWUxOTQ2ZGM=

Zouk, again with the off-topic rants. Do you have an opinion on the Friday Line, or even on the thread-hijack subject (which is nominally about the unitary executive)?

Or are you just a cut 'n paste drone empty of original thought?

drindl, I see you have been over-caffeinated again. Step back from the keyboard. take a breath. try to remember all that time spent trying to maintain a grip on reality. the black helos aren't really there. it is what's left of your mind playing tricks.

then go ahead and return to your usual "nonsenical, irrational, fact-free rant" It is so amusing in a Krazy Keith Olberman or even a RUfas sort of way.

"So why has Pelosi been so committed to bringing this resolution (the anti-Ottomon one) to the floor? (At least until a revolt within her party and the prospect of defeat caused her to waver.) Because she is deeply unserious about foreign policy. This little stunt gets added to the ledger: first, her visit to Syria, which did nothing but give legitimacy to Bashar al-Assad, who continues to engage in the systematic murder of pro-Western Lebanese members of parliament; then, her letter to Costa Rica's ambassador, just nine days before a national referendum, aiding and abetting opponents of a very important free-trade agreement with the United States.

Is the Armenian resolution her way of unconsciously sabotaging the U.S. war effort, after she had failed to stop it by more direct means? I leave that question to psychiatry. Instead, I fall back on Krauthammer's razor (with apologies to Occam): In explaining any puzzling Washington phenomenon, always choose stupidity over conspiracy, incompetence over cunning. Anything else gives them too much credit."

Why Krauthammer - because she is jealous of the level of cowardice and stupidity displayed by dirty Harry Reid. It is hard to keep up with him.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/18/AR2007101801579_pf.html

'I believe the only chance the Republicans have is if they run 'against someone' (probably HRC), as opposed to 'for someone' (probably Rudy).

That is, they like to obstruct Congressional progress (ie, growing gov, since it NEVER shrinks), and feel more at home stopping the silly expansions rather than proprosing programs of their own.'

Well, JD, doesn't that sound like everything about them negative? All they do is attack and obstruct, wouldn't you say?

'any time you are not getting your way by using facts and legitimate, reasoned argument, '

I have to laugh--any post that starts like this is always zouk -- and always ends up with some nonsenical, irrational, fact-free rant.

How sad is it that I'm almost defending Mukasey for fear that Ted Olson might be the next AG choice. ''

Yes, how sad indeed. What a nightmare age. Olson may well be the most partisan attorney in the country, one of the earliest members of the conspiracy to dig up dirt on, and bring down, Bill Clinton. And also one of the most unhinged in the War on Terra.
But I heard he was working for Guliani now, which figures.

And Judge, your are right. The words 'Christian' and 'Conservative' are literally meaningless now -- indeed they mean quite the opposite of what they used too. Ahh, Orwell. I'm sure he would not be happy to know that everything he ever predicted has come true. Anyone for a Two Minute Hate? I gotta picture of Abenjihad, or whatever is name is, somewhere.

any time you are not getting your way by using facts and legitimate, reasoned argument, you must overwhelm your male opponent with unassailable emotional turmoil, i.e. a hissy-fit. In other words, take the argument to a level that your male adversary does not comprehend: pure emotion, unencumbered by rational thought. By purposely becoming irrational, and accusing your opponent of being "vicious," "mean," "unreasonable," "vile," "cruel," "a bully," et cetera, et cetera into lingual infinity, you effectively disarm your utterly reasonable opponent and ride the emotional wave of perfected guile to victory. In other words, you get your own way in the matter.

This is precisely the tactic being employed now on a regular basis in our United States Congress. Much to my dismay, many of the current Congressional Hissy-Fits are being thrown by men. Whenever a new or expanded entitlement program is proposed, or there is a debate about the War, or a new grievance or "hate crime" comes about, we witness a nationally televised, media-hyped, Democratic Party-endorsed hissy-fit.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/10/congress_needs_an_intervention.html

Addendum: the Inhofe and Lamar! seats would be potentially winnable for Dems as open seats only. Sorry. To my knowledge, neither of those senators has yet publicly announced his intention to seek reelection.

The sleeper races, in my view, are South Dakota, where I don't think it's a given that Johnson will run again and where the Republicans would be odds-on favorites to pick up an open seat, and Kentucky, where McConnell looks vulnerable and the Bluegrass State Dems have a whole mess of potential signficant challengers.

Also, I think Ted Stevens is the Conrad Burns of '08: too dirty and too out-of-touch to win, even in a red state. And, like Johnson, it's not a certainty he'll run again. For that matter, I wonder about Inhofe and Lamar! as well. Both are from red states, but Dems hold the governorships in both, so they are potentially winnable with the right mix of candidates.

As exciting and turbulent (same diff) as '06 was, '08 promises to be even better.

"Huckabee has no chance with these hypocrites because he will clearly attempt to implement beliefs that are far purer than theirs."

I don't have a good rebuttal, but if their options are:
1) the mormon
2) the gay-friendly philanderer
3) the man who called them 'agents of intolerance'
or, 4) the not-militant-enough Huckabee

who do they go with? A 'none of the above' 3rd party 'punt in 2008 and prove how important we are' throw-away candidate?

"He admitted to having, at one time, a heroin habit that amounted to spending roughly £7,000 per week..."

Unfortunately, bsimon, Clapton paid in cash. Our current POTUS is even less financially responsible than a rock-n-roll heroin addict.

"What is stunning to me is that WaPo also has an article that suggests the Christian Ayatollahs are not in his corner at all. Which says to me that they are not evangelical Christians, at all."

Mark in Austin, this is no surprise. 'Christians' as a term now appears to include liars, torturers and those who'll happily deny health coverage to sick children and crow about it afterwards. Too bad we don't have another word that describes those few people who are actually "Christ-like" since 'Christian' is so completely compromised.

Huckabee has no chance with these hypocrites because he will clearly attempt to implement beliefs that are far purer than theirs. He reminds me of McCain circa 1999.

I believe the only chance the Republicans have is if they run 'against someone' (probably HRC), as opposed to 'for someone' (probably Rudy).

I still think the Dems are better than 3-1 shot to win the Presidency, but the GOP's best shot is to hammer HRC's negatives hard (and she provides many many targets).

As for the Senate, I'm starting to think the Republicans are more comfortable in the minority than they are governing. That is, they like to obstruct Congressional progress (ie, growing gov, since it NEVER shrinks), and feel more at home stopping the silly expansions rather than proprosing programs of their own.

"At the very least, I have faith that a President Obama would respect the rule of law."

Perhaps a Con-Law professor as President is just what we need right now. Though it depends on where he comes down on the theory of the 'unitary executive'.

To hijack back to the Senate Line, for a moment, a MN public radio notes that Fox reports a Ben Stein donation of $2000 to the Franken campaign. Apparently the conservative columnist (and former Nixon speechwriter) and liberal author/talk show host are old friends. I will grant, in advance, that the story is nothing more than mildly amusing...

Mark -- All fair points. How sad is it that I'm almost defending Mukasey for fear that Ted Olson might be the next AG choice. To be clear, I think Olson is a tremendously talented attorney but - like many Bush apostles - a true believer in the supremacy of the executive branch to the exclusion of all else. Somehow, I doubt ANYONE Bush appoints would have the courage to force the President into the equivalent of a Saturday night massacre. Today, everyone just "ok..."

As far as Obama goes, I didn't send anyone after you -- although I'm glad to hear they're chasing you. :) I suspect that if Senator Obama can craft a message that appeals to you the country as a whole will benefit. At the very least, I have faith that a President Obama would respect the rule of law.

Andy R., Brooks is writing what you and I suspected one morning two months ago. What is stunning to me is that WaPo also has an article that suggests the Christian Ayatollahs are not in his corner at all. Which says to me that they are not evangelical Christians, at all.

My "true" evangelical friends are more like MH than they are like Dodson. That is a good thing.

And Colin, did you sic Obama fund raisers on me?

Colin, I agree with "deference", too. But waterboarding is from the Spanish Inquisition.

To paraphrase one of the JAG flag officers who testified on torture, "I would do anything I could to prevent a terrorist incident, but I would be prepared to accept Court Martial if I chose to violate the law."

Torture must be against the law and against public policy. That it may occur in rare instances anyway is a known. As with the defenses and mitigations to a murder charge [self defense, duress, defense of another,etc.] an American tried for torture
who saved the Sears Tower and Chicago from
an atom bomb in a suitcase would be able to raise mitigating circumstances to punishment and perhaps duress as a defense.

But the torture itself must remain prima facie unlawful or we have lost our way.

I know the morale at Justice needs a boost and the quality of its permanent pro staff
needs reinvigorating and this SJC is all about the professionalism issue that is a reality after Gonzales. But the guy can't slap us in the face and be ambivalent on waterboarding.

"To call Bush a 'conservative' does too much honor to the spending habits of drunken sailors everywhere."

Judge, agreed. The metaphor is not only tired, but inapt as well. Drunken sailors, after all, can only spend for a day, or weekend, of shore leave.

Perhaps a more appropriate metaphor can be taken from an interview of Eric Clapton broadcast on NPR last night. He admitted to having, at one time, a heroin habit that amounted to spending roughly £7,000 per week - in today's currency. It was unclear for how long he maintained that lifestyle. But he did eventually recover, perhaps that fact can give us a bit of hope for our own future.

claudia: you can also expect zouk to post a rant about how Congress's approval rating is 11 percent. That may be 100 percent correct but it's also 100 percent irrelevant. People don't vote for "Congress," they vote for their own Senators and Representative.

AndyR: I enjoyed Brooks' column as well. He certainly overlooks some of Huckabee's negatives but I thought the following was particularly telling:
"...Huckabee is something that the party needs. He is a solid conservative who is both temperamentally and substantively different from the conservatives who have led the country over the past few years."

The second use of the word 'conservative' should definitely have been in quotes. To call Bush a 'conservative' does too much honor to the spending habits of drunken sailors everywhere.

And Clin, the other troubling issue [oh, there are so many] is that Mukasy, who is a fence-straddling wimp, as far as I can tell. would be in charge of the surveillance program, rather than FISA. You might as well just burn your copy of the Constitution, it means nothing anymore.

since i'm sure zouk will be along shortly with more of his fantasies about climate change, thought I'd post this. what a surprise!

'The school governor who challenged the screening of Al Gore's climate change documentary in secondary schools was funded by a Scottish quarrying magnate who established a controversial lobbying group to attack environmentalists' claims about global warming.

The Observer has established that Dimmock's case was supported by a powerful network of business interests with close links to the fuel and mining lobbies. He was also supported by a Conservative councillor in Hampshire, Derek Tipp.'

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2190770,00.html

Mark -- I don't disagree with you regarding the dangers of unlimited executive power, but I must admit that I'm not sure we can expect anyone better than Mukasey as a nominee. Moreover, even after his concerning testimony I still vastly prefer him to the man currently running the Justice department, Keisler -- who is extremely political. Then again, I also tend to agree with Feingold that Presidents are entitled to extreme deference in their nominations. Accordingly, I'd rather deal with the Bush administration through increased congressional oversite -- which also isn't going to happen. sigh.

I agree Mark. My complaint was entirely about the policies they are caving on.

I was a Republican before, but have fallen out with the GOP over the power grab (among other things.

A minister told his congregation who to vote for? His tax-exempt status should be revoked. I'm not holding my breath, though.

Here's another one... I think Huckabee's star is rising..

'A prominent Dallas minister told his congregation that if they wanted to elect a Christian to the White House, Republican Mitt Romney wasn't qualified.

Dr. Robert Jeffress, pastor of First Baptist Church of Dallas, said Mormonism is a false religion and that Mr. Romney was not a Christian.

"Mitt Romney is a Mormon, and don't let anybody tell you otherwise," Dr. Jeffress said in a sermon on Sept. 30. "Even though he talks about Jesus as his Lord and savior, he is not a Christian. Mormonism is not Christianity. Mormonism is a cult."

Some in the large crowd began to applaud as Dr. Jeffress continued with his remarks.'

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/101807dnnatromney.340675e.html

As far as North Carolina and Libby Dole's seat, I am sorry that the NC Democrats haven't given serious thought to running Cong. David Price against her. Price represents the only real liberal Democratic district in NC, around Durham and CHapel Hill, and if he were to run for the Senate, the district would very likely elect another Democrat to replace him in the House. He's an ex-business prof at Duke, well liked and well respected. The demographics in NC are changing fast, lots of retirees and yankees moving in, and the "Old SOuth" attitudes are being diluted. NC could be changing the same way VA is...I hope the DCCC starts recognizing that possibility. For example, Larry Kissell, a school teacher and political novice, ran a shoestring campaign against incumbent conservative Republican Robin Hayes in 2006 and got enuf votes to force a recount. A little bit of advertising and organizing help from the national party might have given the Dems that seat in Congress.

Good on you, Mark -- and I agree. I don't care who the president is, too much power is too much power. Against everything our founders intended. We need neither a king nor a dictator. Now back to -- Huckabee. Interesting piece about divided social cons:

'Uncertainty about a consensus candidate _ and anxiety over the possibility of nominating Giuliani _ serves as a backdrop.

"Our heads are telling us that we've got to settle for someone that can win even if he's not the closest to our values. I've decided that I can't do that. I've got to go with my heart," said Burress, who says he's leaning toward Huckabee but has not committed.

Some fear that if they stay divided as a group, their power will be diluted and they will, in effect, be handing the nomination to the antithesis of what they believe _ Giuliani.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20071019/gop-religious-conservatives/

'U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker banished Golden from Iraq, but he continues to oversee the construction of the embassy in Baghdad; to be the liaison with the contractor, Kuwait-based First Kuwaiti General Trading and Contracting Co.; and to supervise other projects for the State Department's Overseas Buildings Operations (OBO) bureau.'

Williams, who was chosen for his post in March 2001 by his friend, then-Secretary of State Colin Powell, runs the overseas buildings operation like a virtual fiefdom, according to numerous current and former officials who refused to discuss personnel matters on the record.

He and his aides refused to let U.S. diplomats and congressional staffers onto the new embassy compound in Iraq, according to congressional testimony in July and a former senior official with first-hand knowledge.

The Baghdad embassy complex, while incomplete, is about to be dramatically expanded to make room for a U.S. military presence that wasn't anticipated when the structures were first planned in 2004.

OT, but really, I mean, wtf? What is going on here? They're 'dramatically expanding' the Iraq embassy? Which was already supposed to house over a 1000 people? And the fraud and everything else... how sad that Powell is involved.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/20676.html

Thank you all for continuing the semi-hijack
I started, without shame. J and Blarg, for me it is not an issue of SJC giving in to a bad Prez, it is giving in to a flawed idea.
Some Prez you or I agree with will claim unbounded authority next time and it will still be a blow to our representative form of government, and the notion that no one is above the law. You probably share that perspective and I hope a lot of true conservatives do, too.

Drindl, I am writing Leahy, Specter, Biden, and Graham. They each will get a different letter from me. Graham will get the JAG feedback, one more time. He remains USAF JAG himself, as I will remind him.

David Brooks wrote an article today about Huckabee in the NYT that is about as positive as you can get. Watch out now the national media is picking up the scent. I estimate 1 month before Huckabee takes over #1 in Iowa.

Are any of the National Guard units that are scheduled to go to Iraq in those states? We have one in NC that goes right around election time.

Such deployments in a state ticked off about the war could impact some of the races there.