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Kentucky: Will Dems' Bandwagon Roll Over McConnell?

Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher's (R) lopsided defeat at the hands of former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D) last night already has the political community -- both here and in the Bluegrass State -- buzzing about what it all means for the '08 reelection chances of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
Mitch McConnell is the architect of the modern Kentucky Republican Party, which went from political afterthought to dominant power in the state between 1984 and 2004. (Linda Davidson -- The Washington Post)

McConnell's decision to begin running TV ads late this week is sure to fuel talk that he is nervous and getting more so after Fletcher's loss. McConnell is spending roughly $117,000 on the 60-second ad, which The Fix has yet to see. That cost includes 500 gross ratings points (meaning the average viewer will see the ad five times in a week) in the Louisville media market and 600 points in the Lexington market.

As we have noted before, Democrats believe that McConnell's job in Washington is complicating his reelection chances at home, as he is forced to defend policies -- the war in Iraq, immigration reform -- that are non-starters for voters in his home state.

Republicans have retorted that McConnell remains largely in step with his conservative-minded state and, even if that wasn't the case, Democrats don't have a serious recruit on the horizon.

Let's unpack each of those assumptions in light of Beshear's victory yesterday.

On the federal level, Kentucky has favored Republicans -- albeit it narrowly at times -- over the last several elections.

President Bush won the Commonwealth with 56.5 percent in 2000 and increased that margin to 59.5 percent four years later. Former President Bill Clinton did carry Kentucky in 1992 and 1996, but neither time with more than 46 percent of the vote. The three previous presidential elections -- 1988, 1984 and 1980 -- saw the Republican nominee win with 55.5 percent, 60 percent and 49.1 percent, respectively.

Similarly, the last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Kentucky was in 1992, when Sen. Wendell Ford was reelected with 63 percent. In the open-seat race to replace Ford in 1998, Reps. Jim Bunning (R) and Scotty Baesler (D) squared off; after the dust cleared, Bunning had won by just 6,766 votes. Democrats fell short again in 2004 when state Sen. Dan Mongiardo (D) took 49.3 percent of the vote against Bunning.

McConnell, however, has not faced a serious challenge since 1990; he won reelection with 65 percent in 2002, 55 percent in 1996, and 52 percent in 1990.

In the House, however, Democrats have had far more luck so far this decade -- claiming Fletcher's seat in a 2004 special election and defeating Rep. Anne Northup (R) last year.

And on the state level, it is Democrats who have been dominant. Until Fletcher won in 2003, Democrats had held the governor's mansion since 1967 and could well be at the start of another extended run with Beshear's victory last night.

The truth is that Kentucky isn't a swing state, but it's also not a state that is a stone cold lock for the Republican Party either. Fletcher's loss and the narrow wins of Bunning in 1998 and 2004 are better viewed as isolated incidents of candidates inflicting considerable damage on themselves than some sort of broader trend. But Democrats have run competitive races in the past few cycles, and the state's roots are strongly Democratic (until the 1994 GOP sweep, Democrats held four of the state's six House seats).

So does the just-concluded governor's race matter -- if at all -- when it comes to assessing McConnell's chances?

Beshear's win will almost certainly energize the Democratic political establishment and the activist base in the state, and could also provide encouragement for candidates considering the race.

At the top of that list is state Auditor Crit Luallen, who was reelected overwhelmingly to a second term last night, with 59 percent. Luallen visited with officials from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee earlier this year to talk about a race, and the DSCC has commissioned two polls in the state -- perhaps in an attempt to convince Luallen to take the plunge.

Democratic strategists like Luallen for several reasons, including a compelling personal story -- she has twice battled cancer in recent years -- and believe her tenure in her current post gives her a nice launching pad from which to challenge McConnell. (A recent poll by Research 2000 for the Lexington Herald-Leader showed Luallen trailing McConnell by a 45 percent to 40 percent margin.) One potential hiccup in that plan, however, is that Luallen served as executive secretary in the administration of disgraced Gov. Paul Patton (D) -- a connection Republicans would be sure to make if she decided to challenge McConnell.

Although Luallen appears to be Democrats' first choice, there is also serious talk about a candidacy by Greg Fischer, the CEO of Dant Clayton, which, judging from their Web site -- stadiumbleachers.com, appears to specialize in "stadium and bleacher solutions." Fischer is a political novice but is apparently quite wealthy and might be willing to spend significant funds on a race against McConnell.

State Attorney General Greg Stumbo, wealthy businessman Charlie Owen and Andrew Horne, an Iraq war vet and unsuccessful congressional candidate in 2006, are also in the mix for Democrats, but not as highly regarded as Luallen or Fischer.

There are three other X-factors worth considering when discussing McConnell's vulnerability -- two that favor Democrats and one that favors the GOP.

First, the Kentucky governorship is a very powerful office, so if Beshear wanted he could well make life very uncomfortable for McConnell in the coming months. The question is whether the newly minted governor really wants to put his political capital on the line so quickly and against the unquestioned godfather of Kentucky politics.

Second, don't underestimate the symbolic importance of knocking off the leader of the opposition party. Back in 2004, George Allen, then the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told anyone who would listen that beating Senate Majority leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) would be the equivalent of winning three Senate seats. Democrats -- especially those in Washington and national donors who pay attention to national politics -- are sure to feel the same way about McConnell. That could well mean millions in donations to the Democratic nominee and, more importantly, an extended onslaught against McConnell by independent progressive groups.

Third, if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is the Democratic presidential nominee and Luallen is the Democratic Senate nominee, you can almost write the Republican ads yourself. "Crit Luallen: Kentucky's own Hillary Clinton." Cue the eerie music and grainy pictures.

There are too many balls in the air in the state to draw firm conclusions about what Fletcher's loss means to McConnell's future. At best for McConnell, yesterday's results are a non-factor; at worst, it serves as a spur to Democrats to topple the figure who has stood astride Bluegrass State politics for the last two decades.

By Chris Cillizza |  November 7, 2007; 3:00 PM ET  | Category:  Senate
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Where did this writer get his opinions? Obviously not based on any factual influence in Kentucky. As a Kentuckian I have to ask ... Who is Fisher? He ran a bleacher company? That sounds more like he is suited to run for a suburban city council seat certainly not the United States Senate.

Just as I am sure the sun will set tonight I am confident this article will prove to be just useless filler in this paper.

Posted by: matthew.leffler | November 13, 2007 9:17 PM

Correction from Kentucky voter:
Lt. Col. Andrew Horne is the most viable candidate for challenging Sen. Mitch McConnell.

Posted by: curtster3 | November 13, 2007 8:14 PM

The website that "outed" Larry Craig as gay, is now publishing allegations that Mich MConnel is gay.
The website has "outed" 6-Members of Congress in recent years and eventually their information found its way in to the "Mainstream Press" when, (as it turned out) the allegations were true.

Posted by: bobnsri | November 9, 2007 3:24 PM

A clarification, if it has not been made already: Before Ernie Fletcher, the last Republican governor of Kentucky, Louie Nunn, was elected in 1967. With the election of Wendell Ford in 1971, Democrats held the governorship until Fletcher's election in 2003.

Until Fletcher won in 2003, Democrats had held the governor's mansion since 1967

Posted by: cltate | November 9, 2007 10:26 AM

"Clinton's callous disregard for this individual is very telling....she stiffed the waitress and left her with nothing but an autographed napkin and the empty feeling that Mrs. Clinton "just didn't get it at all" about what she was trying to communicate to her. " - proudtobegop


Wrong again, blockhead. Check your facts before you spew such nonsense. Hillary left the woman a $100 tip (on a $157 bill):

"Editor's Note: Since this story aired, Hillary Clinton's campaign contacted NPR to say that the campaign paid Maid-Rite a bill for $157 the day of Clinton's visit and left $100 in tip money. NPR contacted Maid-Rite manager Brad Crawford, who confirmed that a bill was paid and tip money was left. Crawford, who was not in the restaurant at the time, said that he believes a campaign staffer left the money with one of his employees, but "where Hillary was sitting, there was no tip left." Neither Anita Esterday nor the manager on duty that day were available for comment as of noon Thursday. "

Posted by: buckidean | November 8, 2007 6:48 PM

"If 2008 were shaping up to be the year of the Second Democratic Tsunami, why is Colorado -- a state in which Democrats have had success for two straight cycles -- a dead heat?

In New Hampshire, John Sununu will have a tough reelection fight, but challenger Jeanne Shaheen has gone from a big 15 point lead to 5 points. Sununu's a savvy enough veteran campaigner to keep this race close.

Democrats blew their shot at Nebraska when Bob Kerrey declined to run for the open seat left by Chuck Hagel. In New Mexico, the Republicans are likely to have a divided two-candidate primary, while the Democrats have a three-way primary."

- ProudtobeGOP


LOL - you've got to be kidding me. In the future, preoudtobegop, don't cite a worthless National Review Online article that is not backed up by any facts as basis for an argument. The NRO is a worthless right-wing rag, and that ridiculously bad article was 100% right wing spin on steiroids.


First of all, the Senate race in Colorado is NOT in a dead heat - the ONLY polls showing such a result were partisan GOP polls commissioned by Schaffer. The recent SUSA poll showed Udall leading by 7 points, and that lead will only grow as he outspends Schaffer by at least a few million over the course of this race.

What polls are you looking at in NH where you see Shaheen only leading by 5 points? The two most recent polls on this race show her leading by 11 and 16 points, respectively, which is about where this race has been from the beginning. Right-wing spin on roids, like I said.

As far as New Mexico, what three Democratic candidates are you (or your kooky NRO source) referring to when you claim there is a three-way primry for the Dem nomination? So far there is ONE Dem candidate - Marty Chavez - and he will be steamrolled by Udall WHEN he gets into the primary. Richardson is NOT running, and he CALLED Udall to tell him as much, so I don't know who this third peron is supposed to be. The primary will not be NEARLY as bloody as the republican primary, where Wilson and Pearce will tear eachother apart.

You should really check your facts before you post such nonsense.

Posted by: buckidean | November 8, 2007 6:30 PM

A democratic group have already started running ads against McConnell on Schip and they are very powerful ads that position him firmly on the side of the fat cats, and let's be honest he's the picture of a fat cat, against ordinary people and their kids. I don't how much money they are putting into it but if there is Democratic surge next year and he has been hammered solidly by outside groups he could be in big trouble if the Democrats have a serious candidate.

Posted by: johnbsmrk | November 8, 2007 6:10 PM

I have faith -- McConnell will be reelected, and George Allen will restore the Commonwealth to the respectful, responsible, and productive leadership of his time as faithful agent of Virginia's government and welfare.

Posted by: bava84 | November 8, 2007 4:42 PM

Before the spring of 2007 I was hoping Dr. Dan Mongiardo would run against McConnell. If the national party had gotten involved in 2004 Mongiardo would have beat Bunning. I think the time is right to finally Ditch Mitch.

Posted by: yd9825 | November 8, 2007 2:34 PM

What happened to the guy who ran against Bunning in 04? I would have thought he would be a logical person to run against McConnell. Or is he waiting for a Bunning rematch?

Posted by: agorleski | November 8, 2007 09:40 AM

Dr. Dan Mongiardo was a little known state Senator who lost to Bunning in a great Republican year by around 23,000 votes. He is the running mate of governor-elect Steve Beshear and will become the Lt. Governor. It's possible that he could have a rematch with Bunning if Bunning doesn't retire but I think Ben Chandler passed on everything to run against Bunning/open seat in 2010.

Posted by: labrat94720 | November 8, 2007 1:45 PM

Dear Kentucky Ds,
Don't "punk us." Just find someone who can beat this guy and tell us the name so everyone who cares about Democracy in DC and elsewhere can max out to McConnell's opponent.
Thanks,
Those Who Care About America

Posted by: bmac1 | November 8, 2007 1:19 PM

KY needs to Ditch Mitch in 2008. But we don't need to have a primary election to decide who is going to run. We need to reserve our money to fight McConnell. Bunning has already said he isn't going to run for re-election. In 2004 he claimed to just want to be re-elected for one more term. It would be wonderful to elect a Democrat in the Kentucky First Congressional District. It would be nice if Tom Barlow would just follow politics from the sidelines. He has run for office several times and he can't win.

Posted by: yd9825 | November 8, 2007 1:02 PM

Here's that fabulous economy R policies have brought us -- and what did you say you did for a living zouk? Collect welfare checks? You never answer, just like you don't answer about why you aren't in Iraq, since they've been coming up short on recruits for months now. They'e accepting people with felony convictions, drug dealing records, and really low IQs, so I'm sure they'd even take you...

'Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday that a host of economic problems, including the severe housing slump, will cause business growth to slow noticeably in coming months.

Bernanke said he and his colleagues believe economic activity will "slow noticeably in the fourth quarter."

Many economists believe the economy's maximum point of danger of falling into a recession will occur in the early part of next year.

A variety of problems from the steepest housing downturn in more than two decades to a severe credit crunch, surging oil prices and a falling dollar have roiled Wall Street in recent days, triggering big plunges in stock prices.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged by 360.92 points on Wednesday, the second drop of that magnitude in the past week.

Much of that anxiety stems from a steady stream of bad company news as corporate giants such as General Motors, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup have reported huge losses.

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 12:08 PM

All they've got to cling to in their pathetic little lives is their obsessive hatred of Hillary, blarg, what can you expect.

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 12:00 PM

She was (effectively) fired because her boss didn't like her talking to the Clinton campaign. That is solely the fault of her boss, not Hillary. Whether or not Hillary's other actions were right, blaming the firing on her is just ridiculous.

Posted by: Blarg | November 8, 2007 11:54 AM

aah, the two most juveniles and pathetic sandboxers gossip about me-- ooh it's so painful. you guys are such intectual heavyweights it really really wounds me. two bad your party isr circling the drain. but with losers like you supporting them, how could they help it?

and zouk you promised you'd go away after your all of your predictions in '06 were totally, spectacularly wrong -- but here you are, like a festering wound that won't heal.

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 11:51 AM

zouk - I always knew she was IC; all those rants had her m.o. all over them. I noticed the vicious personal attacks (e.g. "you are one pathetic scumbag proud, etc, etc) have lessened quite a bit since she has to sign each one.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | November 8, 2007 11:43 AM

blarg- Clinton didn't ask this lady if her name could be used as propaganda. It was Ms Esterday's first day on the job at the diner. She was overwhelmed by the whole mob scene, and cetrtainly didn't anticipate becoming a prop in Clinton's campaign, nor did she give permission.

The waitress is now seeking another second job because her nursing home gig got cut so bad it wouldn't be worth it to keep working there...a defacto firing, if you know anything about how minimum wage employers operate.

Clinton's callous disregard for this individual is very telling....she stiffed the waitress and left her with nothing but an autographed napkin and the empty feeling that Mrs. Clinton "just didn't get it at all" about what she was trying to communicate to her.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | November 8, 2007 11:34 AM

drindl - based on the amount of time you have been spending here I can only guess that the corporate writing gig is pretty slow these days.

Just for fun, will you now admit that you were always the "ignorant coward"? no one else on this site has that level of spite and malfeasance coupled with such illogic and reactionary zeal. You also still fish the net for postings every day - an IC trademark.

I always rejected the notion that it was you, assuming you had some sort of integrity, but now, I must consider that you have the relative integrity of a clinton - that is, ZERO.

Posted by: kingofzouk | November 8, 2007 11:20 AM

Anita Esterday appeared in a picture with Hillary Clinton. Her boss saw that picture and cut her hours, as punishment for talking to a politician he didn't like. And you blame that on the "Clinton campaign machine"? Unbelievable.

Posted by: Blarg | November 8, 2007 11:18 AM

bsimon, I would like to point out that I promote and support my candidate of choice on a daily basis here at the Fix. It has been common knowledge for months who that is. And I am an equal-opportunity poster- I take issue and criticize Rs too, in case you haven't noticed.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | November 8, 2007 11:18 AM

Proud - serves you right for trying to talk sense to a moonbat. Really - what did you expect? Drindl is all piss and vinegar. that is one angry hippy.

Posted by: kingofzouk | November 8, 2007 11:15 AM

I don't care about who wears make-up in front of the camera...hell, they all do from what I've seen, or who gets botox - is there any doubt that Nancy Pelosi's face is frozen in time? Let's hear your take on the negative effects the Clinton campaign machine has had on Ms Anita Esterday's actual life...she has now lost her nursing home job because her boss saw the picture in the paper with Esterday & Clinton, and Hillary never even gave her a tip or asked if she could use her life circumstances in her stunp speech!

Now, which thing do you really think has more impact on the voters drindl? Serious question. Which thing? Men wearing make-up for tv or a single mom who lost her job because of Senator Clinton's disregard for people's actual life?

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | November 8, 2007 11:08 AM

if that's true, my mistake blarg. but it clearly says that

"We're darn proud McCain liked our ad enough to use it," Dixon said.

and that ad was used to target Sibelius. so I don't know. But I do know that republicans will used this tactic to push through legislation that will do vast environment damage in the name of 'energy independence' while still refusing to even try conservation or renewable energy sources.

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 11:07 AM

proudtobeGOP, like the party she so favors, has no qualms about saying one thing while doing another. For instance, at 10:40 she wrote:

"Is drindl in the business of supporting any candidatee, I wonder, or just bashing all the ones she hates?"

yet only 10 minutes later, does some bashing of her own:

"Hillary Clinton rolls along like a freight train, leaving behind the disatrous effects of her little jaunt into middle America."

Pots, kettles, etc, ad nauseum.

Posted by: bsimon | November 8, 2007 11:03 AM

And how about you proud, can you talk about anything but your obsessive hatred of Hillary Clinton? Apparently not.

Except the media only focuses on Dem's appearances, never Repubs. Who ever talks about Mitt's $500 makeup jobs, or Rudy's hairweaving or bad toupees? Once I saw him on the street in NY... he had just gotten uut of a limo and the wind lifted his funky rug up -- he's totally bald. AND he uses botox. but you never hear the media mention it, do you? Because he spouts big talk, war talk, he's nasty and brutish--and that's what passes for 'manliness' to the simlpeminded MSM.

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 11:01 AM

Drindl, I can't find any news source that says McCain mentioned Sebelius. I looked it up on Google news, and watched the video clip that was attached to your (unattributed) ThinkProgress article. There's no mention of Sebelius or Kansas at all.

McCain used the same tactic that was used against Sebelius, by referring to foreign dictators. He even used the same posters depicting dictators as the coal lobbyists in Kansas used. But he didn't attack her, or refer to her at all. And there's a difference between using dictators to attack Sebelius and using them to criticize pro-oil politicians. (The main difference is that Sebelius isn't pro-oil by being anti-coal.) I don't see the problem here.

Posted by: Blarg | November 8, 2007 10:56 AM

Meanwhile out in the cornfields of Iowa....... Hillary Clinton rolls along like a freight train, leaving behind the disatrous effects of her little jaunt into middle America.

While at a local Maid Rite diner this week, Senator Clinton was served lunch by a waitress named Anita Esterday, who has unwittingly become part of Clinton's stump speech for her campaign.

"I wished I would have been asked first," the waitress, said of Clinton's decision to insert her in a speech, adding, "I wish she would have asked if she could talk about me later.

"I didn't like it when someone called me up and said Hillary Clinton is talking about you. It's like, what'd I do now? What's she saying?", Ms. Esterday said.

Didn't Hillary learn anything about women last week, after the disastrous fallout from her debate where she attempted to play the victim of an all-male pile-on? Memo to Hillary: Women don't like to be patronized or used as props, no matter their income level.

Oh, and one more thing, Mrs. Clinton. Waitresses generally rely on tips to augment their meager pay, not that you would know anything about that...

Working two jobs, Anita? "I've been doing it all my life. Why should it change now that I'm old?" Esterday said.

Esterday does not think Clinton got it. "I don't think she understood at all what I was saying," Esterday said, adding, "I mean, nobody got left a tip that day."

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | November 8, 2007 10:50 AM

con_crusher, what's wrong with this picture is that many voters pick a candidate based on really stupid reasons. Whether a candidate likes windsurfing or Botox or expensive haircuts says nothing about how they'd govern. Both the media and large portions of the electorate prefer to focus on a candidate's appearance and image, instead of their policies and actual fitness to be president. Republicans are better at image, and that's part of the reason they win.

Posted by: Blarg | November 8, 2007 10:49 AM

'Is drindl in the business of supporting any candidatee, I wonder, or just bashing all the ones she hates?'

well, proud, i've discussed that a number of times with respectful adults here who can talk to me without spewing gratutitous insults, but you are not one of them.

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 10:48 AM

' If McCain calls them on that, good for him. Basically, anti-coal is not pro-oil.'

'with misleading advertisements that smeared Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) as supporting Vladimir Putin, Hugo Chavez, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad '

No, blarg, all he did was smear Gov. Sebelius because she refused to issue permits because the department of Health denied them:

'Roderick L. Bremby, Secretary of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE), announced today that he has denied the air quality permit for the two proposed 700-megawatt generators at the Sunflower Electric Power Corporation plant near Holcomb.

"After careful consideration of my responsibility to protect the public health and environment from actual, threatened or potential harm from air pollution, I have decided to deny the Sunflower Electric Power Corporation application for an air quality permit," said Bremby.

In making his decision, Bremby cited the authority provided to the Secretary of KDHE in K.S.A. 65-3008 and K.S.A. 65-3008a, which grant him the authority to affirm, modify or reverse a decision on an air quality permit after the public comment period or hearing, and K.S.A. 65-3012, which authorizes him to deny or modify an air quality permit to protect the health of persons or the environment.'

And this is what they have been doing for years. First they build their boogeyman do jour, whom they liken to Hitler -- first bin Ladin, then Saddam, then Chavez, now Abenawhoozie, and use him to scare and sway people emotionally. Then they make ads with big pictures of said boogeyman alongside their Democratic target, falsely accusing said target of supporting, being the smae as, or in league, with, said boogeyman. They did this with Tom Dasche, Max Cleland, and numerous others, and the Governor.

It seems to work really well on the simple-minded, and the media isn't quite sophisticated enough, perhaps, to point out how absurd and hysterical and false it is.


Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 10:46 AM

"But there are people who are pro-oil and resist any attempts to lower our oil consumption. If McCain calls them on that, good for him."

Absolutely right, blarg. John McCain is one of the only politicians left in this country willing to tell the truth when it hurts, and to sometimes buck the party line when necessary. He leads according to what is right for the country...always has.

Obama is another pol who has a habit of truth-telling even when that is not what perople want ot hear, and it's unpopular. I don't agree with his ideas, but at least he's truthful.

Is drindl in the business of supporting any candidatee, I wonder, or just bashing all the ones she hates?

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | November 8, 2007 10:40 AM

Great post/analysis. Out of the tree x-factors you mentioned, the biggest one would probably be Hillary getting the nomination. Unfortunately, the Dems don't have a "man's man" Red State-friendly candidate in the top tier. If Hillary were to get the nomination, expect a hardcore backlash from the deep South and Midwest. Edwards talks alot about two Americas, but getting that overpriced haircut didn't help - it would have the same effect of that shot of Kerry windsurfing solo. Dems are supposed to be the party of the people, but Gore had to be trained on how to appear more manly, Kerry gets botox injections, and Edwards lives in a mansion. What's wrong with this picture?

Posted by: con_crusher | November 8, 2007 10:23 AM

Drindl, I don't get it. Maybe the offensive part of what McCain did was hidden between the ellipsis.

Kansans for Affordable Energy said that the governor supports these dictators because she voted against more coal power plants. (By the way, guess which company funds that astroturf group? Yes, that's right, the same company who wanted to build the coal plants!) That's obviously offensive, in addition to being a flat-out lie. Sebelius wasn't advocating more use of oil.

But it's true that our reliance on oil funds dictators who hate us. If McCain pointed that out, I don't have a problem with that. It's offensive to say that an opponent supports dictators because they're anti-coal. But there are people who are pro-oil and resist any attempts to lower our oil consumption. If McCain calls them on that, good for him. Basically, anti-coal is not pro-oil.

Posted by: Blarg | November 8, 2007 10:09 AM

"Crit Luallen: Kentucky's own Hillary Clinton." Cue the eerie music and grainy pictures.

You said it, Chris, not me. But the Hillary factor is a huge potential albatross for down-ballot Democrats all across the nation, particularly in red-purple states. Doesn't anyone remember that it was Bill Clinton, with Hillary's ample assistance, that devastated Democratic candidates in 1994?

What profiteth a party to win the Presidency and lose all else?

Posted by: Stonecreek | November 8, 2007 9:58 AM

McCain begins the industry-funded swiftboating, lies, slander and outlandish, cartoonish accusations against Dems. Too bad--I really used to respect him. This is going to be not only the filthiest campaign we have ever had, but the most chlldish. I wonder what happened to the Republican party I used to know, who could conduct sensible policy discussions, instead of sandbox insults?

'Earlier this week, Kansans for Affordable Energy, a coal-industry-funded advocacy group, blanketed Kansas with misleading advertisements that smeared Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) as supporting Vladimir Putin, Hugo Chavez, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad because her administration had denied air permits for two coal-powered generators in the state due to environmental concerns.

The founder of the group, Bob Kreutzer, eventually admitted that the sensational ad campaign was "a little bit extreme." Apparently the Ahmadinejad-referencing tactic wasn't too "extreme" for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). His campaign used images of the three heads of state as the backdrop for a speech on energy independence in Iowa on Monday after a member of his staff reportedly saw the ad:

Roy Dixon, a Garden City resident and treasurer of Kansans for Affordable Energy, said Tuesday a McCain staffer recently saw one of his groups' ads featuring Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Russian President Vladimir Putin and used the tactic during a campaign stop on Monday. [...]

"We're darn proud McCain liked our ad enough to use it," Dixon said.

On Tuesday, as more and more newspapers picked up on the controversial aspects of the Kansas ad, McCain's campaign distanced itself from the ad, with spokesman Brian Rogers telling the Topeka Capital-Journal that "the campaign had used the oversized photos at least once before at a town-hall meeting in New Hampshire."

Despite Rogers' denial of the timeline, however, Dixon maintained that he "understood that someone on McCain's staff saw the advertisement and liked it."

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 9:54 AM

What happened to the guy who ran against Bunning in 04? I would have thought he would be a logical person to run against McConnell. Or is he waiting for a Bunning rematch?

Posted by: agorleski | November 8, 2007 9:40 AM

For anyone who still thinks General Petreus is 'non-partisan'

'The conservative British newspaper, The Telegraph, has named its top 100 most influential conservatives (and top 100 liberals), and coming in at #2 on the conservative list -- right behind Rudy Giuliani, and just ahead of Matt Drudge, Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh:

When Generals behave properly -- in the apolitical manner that is required of them -- it is difficult to predict what their political affiliation and ideology are. Few people would have been able to say with any confidence what political ideology was embraced by, say, General Casey, or General Abizaid, or even General Wes Clark when they were on active duty, commanding America's military forces. That's because they behaved properly, that is to say apolitically, and one could only engage in wild guesses -- if even that -- in trying to determine their partisan sympathies.

But not with Petraeus. I doubt anyone would find much cause to disagree with his inclusion on the "conservative" list, sitting comfortably between such hard-core partisans as Giuliani, Drudge, Gingrich and Limbaugh. Nor did anyone (at least that I heard) object when William Safire, on last week's Meet the Press, chose Gen. Petraeus as the most likely Republican Vice Presidential nominee to run with Mitt Romney. The other two choices were Mike Huckabee and John McCain.

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 9:35 AM

BAGHDAD -- Last Feb. 7, a sniper employed by Blackwater USA, the private security company, opened fire from the roof of the Iraqi Justice Ministry. The bullet tore through the head of a 23-year-old guard for the state-funded Iraqi Media Network, who was standing on a balcony across an open traffic circle. Another guard rushed to his colleague's side and was fatally shot in the neck. A third guard was found dead more than an hour later on the same balcony.

Eight people who responded to the shootings -- including media network and Justice Ministry guards and an Iraqi army commander -- and five network officials in the compound said none of the slain guards had fired on the Justice Ministry, where a U.S. diplomat was in a meeting. An Iraqi police report described the shootings as "an act of terrorism" and said Blackwater "caused the incident." The media network concluded that the guards were killed "without any provocation."

The U.S. government reached a different conclusion. Based on information from the Blackwater guards, who said they were fired upon, the State Department determined that the security team's actions "fell within approved rules governing the use of force," according to an official from the department's Bureau of Diplomatic Security. Neither U.S. Embassy officials nor Blackwater representatives interviewed witnesses or returned to the network, less than a quarter-mile from Baghdad's Green Zone, to investigate.'

The incident shows how American officials responsible for overseeing the security company conducted only a cursory investigation when Blackwater guards opened fire. The shooting occurred more than seven months before the Sept. 16 incident in which Blackwater guards killed 17 civilians at another Baghdad traffic circle.

The Feb. 7 shootings convulsed the Iraqi Media Network, one of the prominent symbols of the new Iraq, in anger and recrimination.

U.S. officials and the security company, now known as Blackwater Worldwide, offered no compensation or apology to the victims' families, according to relatives of the guards and officials of the network, whose programming reaches 22 million Iraqis.'

Just a little morning news for anyone who still thinks this occupation, or the idea of rightwing paramilitary mercernaries operating under the US flag, is a good use of your taxpayer dollars--just remind me again, why are we in Iraq?

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 9:21 AM

While you're at it, don't waste your time with mibrooks/MikeB. It looks like you figured that out on your own. Anyone who doesn't see the irony in saying this isn't worth the effort:

"Are you so filled with hatred and bile that you would defame the character of anyone with whom you might disagree? I have no idea of who you are, but you are one of the most swinish people I have ever encountered anywhere. Crawl back under your rock and go spew your psychopathic hatred somewhere else."

Posted by: Blarg | November 8, 2007 8:52 AM

brittman-- you might as well not waste your time talking to zouk. i'm not sure he -- or it -- is even human -- more like some kind of bot or program, that keeps spewing out the same incoherent garbage.

Posted by: claudialong | November 8, 2007 8:43 AM

My question is if you had a serious chance of taking out McConnell why wouldn't you wait until Bunning comes up again? He is a much more vulnerable candidate, and why spend political capitol on an uphill battle to take out McConnell.

Also Fletcher lost because he was a complete crook, and I wouldn't read to much into it at this point.

Posted by: AndyR3 | November 8, 2007 7:42 AM

the republican party of today is known for the 3 G's

more Guns please!!
more God please!!
no Gays please!!

OH BUT WAIT A MINUTE WHAT IS ALL THE TALK ABOUT McCONNELL TO BE OUTED AS A NEOCON CLOSET GAY JUST LIKE LARRY CRAIG???
ARE YOU READY LARRY KING???

Posted by: WILLEM1 | November 8, 2007 7:32 AM

Not one of your best analyses Chris. I don't think a "Troops out of Iraq now" message is going to work in the Bluegrass state and it's hard to envisage any Democratic candidate being able to get to MConnell's right on immigration. Daschle's votes were seriously out of sync with a state that has voted consistently 60% Republican or better in presidential elections - hardly the case with recent Democratic presidential nominees in Kentucky. Beshear got the expected easy win against a very scandal-damaged incumbent. Barring a scandal on a similar scale involving McConnell, the Democrats and their 527s should invest their money elsewhere.

Posted by: dark_scot | November 7, 2007 11:22 PM

Oh, and Britt, in a camapaign against Clinton, this liberal and every liberal male I can think of, will be Zouk's best friend. Zouk's "raves" will start looking downright tame as this campaign runs it's course. Ever imagined wha a real war would be like? You may just gt a taste of that reality before this is over.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | November 7, 2007 10:03 PM

Well Britt, if you look at the news it ain't that simple. NBC news tonight had Guliani and Clinton tied. It seems that Clinton's support has been dropping like a rock. An interestin discussion by Tim Russert, mirroring what I have been saying, is that Clinton has the support of only 37% of male voters. Most of her support is from females. Guliani, on the other hand, has been receiving the support of males fleeing the Clinton candidacy - better than 60% of them! It is beginning to become apparent that your long wished for all out war of the sexes is about to become a reality. In the end, Clinton AND YOU will loose.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | November 7, 2007 9:41 PM

2008 will indeed be a repeat of 2006, jay. Zouk can rant all he wants, but he can't change the fact that nobody believes the Republicans anymore. They have screwed up everything they touched.

Posted by: Brittman1 | November 7, 2007 8:15 PM

zouk-in the past most of us SANE posters put up with you and rufus for probably about a year now. with ol rufus banhammered, you get to be the premier loon of the fix.

congrats, i dont know if thats a good thing or not. but hey all the same.

honestly, your screed about dems reminds me of a post you made around this time one year ago, saying that A)dems will not retake congress or the senate.B)both pelosi and reid will be demoted,and C) lib policies will be refuted.

really i dont know where you get your predictions from. Miss Cleo maybe? now this post is a humdinger, even from you.

You Libs better hope for some unexpected news or other scandles.
-now whats the saying? when the your enemies are drowning dont help? i dunno some one help me out here.

If you are forced to run on your issues, you are toast.
-ok here's 3, health care, economy and iraq. dems can and will win on those issues, but be our guest to run on illegal immigration, im sure thats going to be a barn burner of a issue(not)

no one wants to hand over their paycheck to hillary, even if she does know how to spend it better then we do.
-so your perfectly ok with spending 40 cents on the dollar going to iraq with no end in sight? seriously billions down a sink hole of political cronies and leveraging our debt to the chinese? all i can do is just shake my head in pity.

ok its official zouk, you jumped the shark.

heres some reality for you. a huge win in kentucky, virgina and you want rant about hillary? boy i wanna see your face if hillary's not the nominee or if hillary is and election night looks like a repeat of 2006 on steroids.

anyways you keep on ranting slick. we enjoy that closemindedness of yours.

Posted by: jaymills1124 | November 7, 2007 8:07 PM

uckeleg - I'm looking at your poll numbers right now... NBC/WSJ poll has Gulianai and Clinton in a dead heat tie. He has gained 6 points on her in under a month. In KY, he beats her handily today. A new CNN poll shows CLinton with a 10 point drop against Oabama AND her Republican contenders. Clinton not only peaked too soon, to get her "peak" she tied her bandwagon to big business AND to the nuttiest feminist radicals in the Democratic Party. Now, there is a marriage made in hell! Stick a fork in Clinton, she's done for. (oh, careful you don't stick that fork in your eye! Just like playing with BB guns, playing with Clinton is likely to out your eye out.)

Posted by: mibrooks27 | November 7, 2007 7:22 PM

Greg Fischer????

hahahahahaha!!!

someone's having some fun with your lack of KY knowledge, Chris. You've been punked.

Posted by: cubswin39 | November 7, 2007 7:01 PM

as much as i want mcconnell to go down, i don't see it happening either. as far as rich businessmen go, they don't fair well in the federal elections. look at lundsford, owen's past campaigns, etc. maybe horne will be the candidate. there was a lot of enthusiasm behind him for the 3rd congressional district's primary, but the candidate people felt lukewarm about (yarmuth) pulled it out. i think there'll be a similar phenomenon if it's a horne-mcconnell race. though some smart campaigning can exploit mcconnell's unflagging support of the war. luallen seems like the most competitive choice, but it seems a lot of people think she has her eye on the governor's mansion.

Posted by: plathman | November 7, 2007 7:01 PM

...but we're *all* beginning to understand that a Democratic victory would be a complete disaster, a feminist led dictatorship, complete with witch hunts for the policially incorrect, emasculated men, corrupt, cynical, and so divisive that this nation could not survive it. There are very few things I can imagine that would be worse than a Bush Administration..a Clinton Adminstration is one of them, another would be any government that allowed you and your ilk a chance at the levers of power.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | November 7, 2007 6:37 PM

The Dems will win in '08 just like they did in '06 - not because their own ideas are great - but because the Republicans proved themselves to be incompetent and intolerant, especially the former. The Dems may not have many good ideas, but all they need to do to win is say "We're not Republicans."

The Republican brand has been butchered beyond recognition. Nobody believes anything they say anymore.

Posted by: Brittman1 | November 7, 2007 6:19 PM

Brittman1 - "...Or if he is outed like Larry Craig..." You really are a nasty work, aren't you. Is there any depth that you wont sink to? Are you so filled with hatred and bile that you would defame the character of anyone with whom you might disagree? I have no idea of who you are, but you are one of the most swinish people I have ever encountered anywhere. Crawl back under your rock and go spew your psychopathic hatred somewhere else.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | November 7, 2007 6:15 PM

You Libs better hope for some unexpected news or other scandles. If you are forced to run on your issues, you are toast. no one wants to hand over their paycheck to hillary, even if she does know how to spend it better then we do.

Posted by: kingofzouk | November 7, 2007 6:11 PM

Good point Nicole. Or if he is outed like Larry Craig.

Posted by: Brittman1 | November 7, 2007 6:08 PM

I'm a former DC area resident now in the Ohio River Valley and think that national observers shouldn't over-estimate the impact of yesterday's election on the upcoming Senate campaign.

KY went for Bush in '04 by a healthy margin (helped by turnout from an anti-gay marriage amendment ballot measure). Also, it's significant to note that Senator Bunning was re-elected despite a campaign plagued by goofs and gaffes.

The state is extremely conservative on social issues and has a substantial population of military families. Fundamentalist mega-churches are also hugely influential in electoral politics here.

The only way I can see McConnell go down is if his support for Bush's immigration policies is exploited by a DixieCrat democrat. The area has seen a substantial influx of such immigrants in the past few years. Like many rural areas , the resulting culture clash has led to silent rsentment on the part of many voters.

Posted by: nicoleparish | November 7, 2007 6:07 PM

Again I stress that '08 will not be the Republicans' year. Their unique combination of incompetence and hate mongering will play well again, however, in 2010. These things are cyclical.

Posted by: Brittman1 | November 7, 2007 6:07 PM

claudia - One thing you need to notice are the number of people, self identified Democratic voters like me, people who have *never* voted for a Republican in their life, who will NOT vote for Hillary Clinton, who will actively campaign against her. Posters like Brittman1 with her hate filled feminist skreeds are being identified as the prototypical Clinton supporter, and this is going to cost her any chance at an election victory.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | November 7, 2007 6:07 PM

LOL. have a nice day mibrook. I think we're done here. ;-)

Posted by: Brittman1 | November 7, 2007 6:04 PM

One must look at the races a little more closely to make predictions. the LA governor and MI governor are now and forever R. this is a result of competency vs Lib folly after Katrina. the state races are mostly meaningless, no one votes in those things except truly partisan zealots.

Put hillary on the ticket and all the marginal voters will rush to the polls. this country has never been more than 50% Dem or Lib with only one Dem elected Pres in over 20 years. Only two if you want to go back 35 years and even then only four in 50 years. One after Watergate and an ill-timed pardon, one with a third party candidate after 12 years of GOPS.

This means that the Dems will have to fool most of the nation with false promises and DINO claims, just like in 2006. but they played that card too too soon again after the last set of lies. 5 day work week. culture of corruption, eliminate earmarks, end the war, pay as you go, etc. Not a truthful statement in their entire platform. and now we get to Hillary. In this case it is impossible to lie, because she simply states both sides as her position.

do you like the cubs or the Yankees - both. will you end the war or continue - both. will you change SS or not - both. will you.,.........

Most normal people have only now even begun to pay attention and what they have found out is that hillary offers a return to all the bad things about the clinton years - the scandels, the lies, the triangulation, the need for affection, the dirty money with none of the good things - the rakish behavior, the sense of humor, the affability, the centrist sensibility.

so what the average voter will conclude is:
A:I don't want the other clinton in office
B: just in case she wins, I don't want a Dem congress they haven't done a thing and are so out of touch it is time for them to go already. I hope the Rs learned their lesson about spending and power. We simply can't afford to let the Libs run things.

Posted by: kingofzouk | November 7, 2007 6:02 PM

'And if I were you, I wouldn't underestimate the Hillary-factor impact at the state level.'

Nor would I underestimate the Rudy-factor...

Posted by: claudialong | November 7, 2007 5:54 PM

Brittman1 - Intolerance? This from the poster who says things like "the Republicans have nailed down the bigot vote", who equated people of faith with people who hate, the one who said "Mitt has more mainstream supporters - like, you know, Larry Craig" (who Romney condemned anbd distanced himself from immediately after he became aware of Mr. Craig's actions), the one who posted "The notion that only "Christians" do selfless things for their community is absurd, mibrook. I can't believe that's actually your point" but *never* offered an example of such. You are nothing more than one of those ranting, mindless, hate filled and spiteful feminist monsters that gives genuine liberalism a bad name. You are a certifiable lunatic.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | November 7, 2007 5:45 PM

"If 2008 were shaping up to be the year of the Second Democratic Tsunami, why is Colorado -- a state in which Democrats have had success for two straight cycles -- a dead heat?

In New Hampshire, John Sununu will have a tough reelection fight, but challenger Jeanne Shaheen has gone from a big 15 point lead to 5 points. Sununu's a savvy enough veteran campaigner to keep this race close.

Democrats blew their shot at Nebraska when Bob Kerrey declined to run for the open seat left by Chuck Hagel. In New Mexico, the Republicans are likely to have a divided two-candidate primary, while the Democrats have a three-way primary.

In Maine, Susan Collins was supposed to be vulnerable, but an October poll commissioned by Daily Kos put her ahead of Democratic challenger Tom Allen 56 percent to 33 percent.

The Democrats are likely to nominate a comedian, Al Franken, in a blue state seat in Minnesota. With a real candidate -- even with your standard issue Democratic House member with some serious legislative accomplishments -- Republican Norm Coleman would be seriously vulnerable. Instead, the state's Democrats appear hell-bent on nominating a guy known for being funny with a 27-percent approval rating. (Coleman's at 52 percent.)"

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YmU4OGRhYTBjODE5YzYzZTA2MGVmNzM4OWQ1ZTdkZmE=&w=MQ==

Maybe the Democrats will get all of the breaks next year, too, but everybody's luck changes eventually.

And if I were you, I wouldn't underestimate the Hillary-factor impact at the state level.


Posted by: proudtobeGOP | November 7, 2007 5:11 PM

While Chris is simply listening to party insiders from his office in DC, if he was actually on the ground here in KY and saw the growing Draft Lt. Col. Andrew Horne movement in person, perhaps he wouldn't try to marginalize him.

Andrew Horne is the Jim Webb of 2008, the People Powered candidate of 2008. He is the outsider that will pull in Independents and Republicans. He is the candidate that will neutralize the predictable "defeatocrat, wimpy, cut and runner" attack that will be sure to come from McConnell.

Go here to show your support for Horne.

http://drafthorne.org

Posted by: cubswin39 | November 7, 2007 5:09 PM

McConell is nothing more than another Tad Stevens(Alaska).I hope they find him guilty of proliferating monies for friends instead of using it to better the country,which seems to be a Repub trait.
I wonder how much he's profiteered from this war. What a despicable person!

Posted by: jime2000 | November 7, 2007 4:54 PM

proud: as soon as I saw you mention that 11 percent approval rating I knew you'd be making the same mistake that KOZ makes.

People don't vote for "Congress." They vote for one candidate. And there is absolutely no evidence that massive numbers of Dem incumbents are in danger. Conversely, at least a dozen GOP incumbents will not run again. Why is that? Because they don't like being in the minority and know that situation won't change in the 2008 elections.

Further, approval ratings of House REPUBLICANS are substantially lower than that for House DEMOCRATS, so you should not put any weight on the 11 percent overall rating. But hey, if that's what floats your boat.

Similarly, keep repeating the mantra about Hillary Clinton. If that's your only hope for these races, you are in deep trouble.

Posted by: LoudounVoter | November 7, 2007 4:52 PM

You're dreaming, GOP. The '08 election will be about GOP incompetence and intolerance - not about the Dems. 2010 will be about the Dems, however - once they have Congress and the White House. That's your next chance to recover.

Posted by: Brittman1 | November 7, 2007 4:38 PM

How would you like to be one of these freshmen House Democrats seeking your first reelection bid with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket?

You think the Democrats planned on having an 11-percent approval rating? This is now way beyond some short-lived swoon. Only one poll since May has had Congress' approval above 30 percent.

The Democrats have thrown away most of the reform issues that helped them a lot with independents: lobbying reform, ethics rules, earmarks, lack of disclosure, junkets, etc. The "culture of corruption" narrowly outranked terrorism on the list of voter concerns in 2006.

Barring any last-minute passage of rules changes, no Democrat will be able to run for reelection on the message, "we cleaned up Washington" without triggering derisive and skeptical laughter from voters.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YmU4OGRhYTBjODE5YzYzZTA2MGVmNzM4OWQ1ZTdkZmE=&w=MQ==

Let's not forget, the Democrats will not enjoy the advantage of being the party of reform this cycle; mystifyingly, they're not acting like they're worried.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | November 7, 2007 4:29 PM

Yarmuth's victory in 2006 helped Beshear carry almost every one of Jefferson County's precincts yesterday.

His 3rd and Chandler's 6th are safe.

The 2nd CD may now be in play.

Stumbo could win the 5th CD away from Rogers if he chose.

That's four CDs out of six, who with strong candidates, could spell trouble for McConnell.

As for Fischer, no one knows him - every time Kentuckians hear about him it is from pundits in DC. No one here is pushing him, other than a few of his close friends.

Luallen is very popular. The Clinton/Luallen comparison may be a plus, not a minus.

Take the time to study yesterday's county-by-county returns. Lots of Kentucky letting red blood, and bleeding Blue.


Posted by: jtn960 | November 7, 2007 3:57 PM

http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/blog/entries/what_if_sen_mitch_mcconnell/

you might enjoy this ad if you're not a mcconell fan... the last line is great.

Posted by: claudialong | November 7, 2007 3:45 PM

I've been wondering the same thing, uckleg. If Mike Rogers succeeds in outing McConnell, all bets are off.

Posted by: Brittman1 | November 7, 2007 3:41 PM

Well, before the R's start comparing Luallen to Clinton, they should actually check any of the 08 polls coming out of Kentucky thus far, showing Hillary either tying or beating Rudy.

Yesterday will seem like easy street to McConnell after he is dragged out of the closet by bloggers this campaign, like Foley and Craig were.

Posted by: uckeleg | November 7, 2007 3:16 PM

'Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is pushing $1 million in federal funds to help e-Cavern, a Louisville company whose lobbyist, Gordon Hunter Bates, is McConnell's former chief of staff and 2002 campaign manager.['

mcconells a big fan of earmarks for staffers, apparently.

Posted by: claudialong | November 7, 2007 3:13 PM

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