Chris, here is a point to ponder: is the Republican Party going the way that the Whig Party did 150 years ago? You may recall that the Republican Party started to replace the Whigs as the dominant opposition party in the 1856 Presidential election, and completed the action by the 1860 election. Is the current Republican Party so far removed from its base because of its' catering to the right-wing fringe that it is in danger of losing its relevance?

Just an update here on another Congressional seat in Montana. Bill Kennedy, Yellowstone County commissioner who was the only announced candidate for the Democratic nomination to oppose Rep. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont in the state's single at-large seat abruptly dropped out with a disclosure that he was just diagnosed with serious illnes.

One of the names talked about as replacement for Kennedy is Democratic house leader Dave Wazenreid of Missoula. Wazenreid's problem is that he can be labled a "Missoula Liberal," which will be a tough sell in the state's swing precints.

"New Jersey is Democratic territory and should act like it in a presidential year -- especially if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is leading the ticket." ???

Ask any local Democratic operative in any state: HRC at the top of the D ticket is perceived to be the biggest problem for down ballot races. She has the ability to do for Democrats in 2008 what she did for them in 1994.

The three top Republicans for this seat, Tom Kean Jr., John Bramnick and Bob Franks, have all refused to run for this seat, making it more probable that Linda Stender, who came incredibly close to winning this seat without any institutional support, can turn NJ-07 from red-to-blue.

Okay, Mark, conceded. I was thinking of Albright. Yugoslavia, I'm not so sure.

Huckabee's advisors, can't find a ref. Rubin would almost certaily work for Clinton. Agree with you about Israel, completely. I thik AIPAC has far, far, too much influence here -- but having been in a Jewish family for 25 years [who are all democrats, btw] the emotional far outweighs the rational on this.

Here's Mitt's guy, who, shall we say, lacks nuance -- more like a caricuture of a one-dimensional macho man...Mitt falls even further in my esteem:

'Retired General James "Spider" Marks, who has just been named a new national security adviser to Mitt Romney's campaign, asserted in a 2005 interview that he would readily torture prisoners, saying: "I'd stick a knife in somebody's thigh in a heartbeat."

So, if any of you know, who are the close advisers of your candidates?

drindl, Clinton's first term foreign policy was weak and ineffective - Christopher was a terrible SOS but Albright was much better.

Think "Mogadishu" for the first term and "Yugoslavia" for the second. Sharp contrast. And Yugoslavia would have probably gone better without Cohen.

Further, Clinton and GWB both would never insist that Israel withdraw its settlements from the West Bank. Never. A complete blind spot.

Yes, through the GWB prism Clinton looks OK, but on foreign policy, through the GWB prism, Bush 41 looks absolutely great.

So I will schedule "1984".

If we are getting a freebie here b/c CC is doing TG, I really want to know what all of you have heard about your candidates closest advisers.

I will start with knowing that Biden would want Dick Lugar at State, and that McCain would want Graham's advice on who should be AG - if Graham wants out of the Senate, he might be the McCain choice for AG. We also know that Podhoretz is RG's Middle East adviser.

Would Rubin work for HRC? Who would be on her short list at State and Defense?

BHO relies on Richard Clarke on security matters.

Edwards' people? Romney's advisers? Huck's?

Really Mark -- I thought Clinton's foreign policy was pretty good, especially compared to the current total disaster--which isn't a policy so much as a clusterf*ck:

for anyone interested in what Afghanistaan and Iraq active dury vets and families are thinking, here's a new site:

course these are all, you know, 'phony soliders' with Purple Hearts and what have you, according to Limbaugh

http://www.votevets.org/

Predicting who will become a successful Prez is very tricky. Through the 20th + 21st Cs., we have had 19 presidencies.

Most, in my opinion, have produced "mixed results". I do not think many would have predicted how strong Truman would be as Prez. I do not think that many would have thought that LBJ would escalate 'Nam from his record as Majority Leader and his concentration on domestic policy. I would not have predicted that Reagan would have done well with foreign policy and I have always credited his reliance on Scholz and Powell for much of our success, '85-'88.

I am not even sure that knowing in advance who will be the trusted advisers is much help. McNamara, Rusk, Bundy - they all had the credentials, as did Dick Cheney.

I thought Clinton's first term was a foreign policy mess and that his first SOS
and second SOD were terrible. His own fascination with global markets and his two great SOTs - Bentsen and Rubin - helped salvage some foreign policy success.

I think I knew that Christopher and Cohen were unlikely choices before they were made.

1984 a classic? Mos def, Mark... if you knew nothing about American politics and read it, it would explain to you everything about what's going on today in this country. It's Karl Rove's bible.

You are likely right about MH's ad. It could work on a couple of levels. Folks who aren't sophisticated enough to get that it's a parody of EZ fixes will still love it for its humor---and Chuck Norris.. It really is different and daring-- more like a beer ad than a presidential candidate's. If it goes super viral, it could well get him some fast name recognition.

fyi for anothr possible retiirement.

U.S. Rep. John Doolittle, R-Roseville, California's 4th District, under several federal investigations for his entanglements with Jack Abramoff, Tom DeLay, Duke Cunningham, and 'being a possible conduit for illegal influence in U.S. affairs by a foreign corporation' is a good candidate for retirement, too. He might well want to be spending more time with his wife, Julie -- since she's under investigation in a number of cases too.

"do you think I should schedule reading "1984"? Was it actually a classic?"


absolutely, on both counts

Back in Austin, not going into work til this afternoon [winding down from 3500+ mi drive].

Skimmed lots of stuff I missed.

Drindl, Boko, and Judge - do you think I should schedule reading "1984"? Was it actually a classic? My next book to read is "1912" on Colin's recommendation and I intend to get it before TG. When I was 16, in the genre of apocalyptic fiction, I loved "Player Piano" by Vonnegut. I was an "early adopter" of KV, and my eldest daughter discovered my treasure trove and read KV all through high school.

This weblog, after the D debate, became a JB fanfest - perhaps Iowans watched, too.

Kane's support speaks well of McCain [compare to Pat Robertson].

drindl and proud, I thought MH's Chuck Norris ad was so funny that I cannot remember another pol ad like it. I took it as playfully poking fun at anyone including himself who thought there were EZ fixes to any difficult problem.

I had no difficulty with BHO's rapid response to the Novak rumor. `

fyi:

'Multiple sources in Western New York politics have confirmed that there is a strong possibility that Cong. Tom Reynolds (R-Erie) will not run for a sixth term next year, opening up a race for the seat by State Sen. George Maziarz (R-Niagara), thus placing Maziarz' seat up for grabs.

Rumors of a potential Reynolds departure and a Maziarz play for a congressional seat have been flying around political circles in Buffalo and Niagara Falls for months, though Reynolds spokesman L.D. Platt denies the rumors and says the congressman will run again.

Tom Reynolds? He wasn't even on the watch list! I suppose barely winning a House race against a total crank last year amid news that he covered up for Mark Foley, all while losing the House under his tenure at the NRCC could be enough to seriously take the wind out of his sails.

This seat leans Republican on the Presidential level, with a PVI of R+3.5, but Democrats already have a challenger ready to go, Iraq Vet Jon Powers. '

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1078

"The New Jersey Congressman is the 17th Republican to announce his retirement heading into the 2008 election. Just four Democrats have stepped aside to date."

17 Republicans and 4 Democrats?

Reminiscent of the old pre-2006 corruption lists.

So much for returning morallity to Washington, makes one wonder what the fundies think of that "f*#&^%g faith-based thing" these days.

Gotta give the R's their due, though, they have really lightened the load on our struggling democracy.

When rats like Rove jump off a sinking ship, they don't represent the balast that a whole pack of Republican pachyderms would constitute.

So maybe the ship of state will float again, when all that elephantine fat is heaved overboard?

We can only hope the Dems fill the holds with better cargo...

'Yesterday Mezoe accused the congressman, a 32-year-old married father of three representing New Jersey's 7th District, of grabbing her in the wee hours Wednesday morning. She said Ferguson removed his ID pin and handed it to her, saying she could keep it if she would "come back and have a drink with me." Mezoe said she refused to return it unless Ferguson apologized for his "disrespectful" behavior. An apology was not forthcoming.'

What is it with these guys? It sure seems to me like at least half of Congress are s*x addicts.

Mark, did you watch Huckabee's Chuck Norris ad? I was puzzled by the descrition of it, but once I watched it I thought it was hilarious. Really ironic and bold.

HIs message was, in this order: immigration, guns, abolish the IRS, principled conservative, etc.

Now, none of these are my issues, and I think the Republican party's stance on pretty much all of it is dangerous, irresponsible, and disingenuous. Sure we need to do better at the borders, but it's hardly the number one issue. It's just a hysterical hot button.

Gun 'rights' are scarcely endangered -- americans own more guns than th rest of the world put together. No one, of either party at this time, has suggested any restrictions on that.

Sure I hate the IRS too -- but how will we fund our massive defense budget -- again bigger than the rest of the world's put together -- the tooth fairy? The world is losing faith in our currency -- now that's a problem. How will we continue to operate on borrowing, as we have been for several years? We are heavily in debt, spending more than we take in by several factors.

While I think this ad is hilarious, all Huckabee is doing here is playing to the emotions of the base, not offering any solutions to anything. But that sort of demagoguery tends to play well with that audience.

Interestingly, no mention of gays or abortion, so I guess those are no longer the proven crowd pleasers that they once were.

Chris, Have you heard anything about Tom Reynolds retiring?

HRC will carry Jersey by 15 pts; unless it's Rudy, in which case she'll carry it by 5 points.

CC, your statement:

"This north-central New Jersey district contains multitudes."

All Congressional Districts are populated by approximately the same number of persons.

What did you mean?

Wow things are getting really bad for House Republicans at this point. After NJ-05, this is the second very competitive NJ House seat that is opening up. Check out the complete race-by-race analysis of all the vulnerable districts at Campaign Diaries's House ratings: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/houserankings

chris you are off on this one. last year was a FLUKE in NJ-7. stender barely held onto her state assembly seat two weeks ago against a candidate who spent about $100. secondly, a hillary candidacy reinforces the western parts of this district- somerset, hunterdon and blue collar union county voters to vote AGAINST her. Even without Kean, Bramnick (a well liked GOP assemblyman in swing town of Westfield, Union County) or Bob Franks would probably fare better than fergie

This district received no funds whatsoever from the DCCC in 2006, and Stender came within less than 1% of winning against Ferguson. New Jersey is trending more Democratic on a national level, and district 7 and district 3 could very well go to Stender and Adler, respectively. These are exciting times for New Jersey Democrats, and this retirement only puts this vulnerable Republican seat further into play.

Funny how that low, low public approval rating for Congress doesn't seem to be keeping GOP incumbents from retiring en masse.

Wow, the retirements are really starting to heat up on the GOP side. seems like it may be the start of a snow ball effect.