First, thanks to Chris for being one of that endangered species.. the good investigative reporter.
And, do I misremember, or is crossover voting allowed in the Iowa caucuses? If the campaign managers for one party, say the Republicans, wanted to make sure that the weakest Democrat would 'win Iowa' could they vote for that person, thus skewing the results to influence the
choice of the Democratic presidential candidate?

goddessljt: You got Ronnie pretty well pegged, where the repubs have done such a great job of potraying him as some kind of "God" despite one of the worst records in history where the lower and middle income workers are taken as a measure. With so much information available, it is hard to understand how so many can be fooled for so long. By repeating anything often and long enough, folks tend to believe, no matter how false or wrong it may be. This goes back to IKE and the vast military complex that is so tied to the media industry, where a close look shows just how close the people in control are the same small number.

lylepink:
First let me apologize for my unnecessary use of the word, "duh," in my response to your initial post. I am generally more civil than that.
Second, I think any number of Republicans can defeat Hillary in the General Election. Right now, one YEAR before the election, she is BARELY outpolling Rudy Giuliani nationally. Why do you think she is the main focus of his rhetoric? If those two are the nominees, she will have been on the defensive for a SOLID YEAR. REPUBLICANS should be on the defensive, NOT the Democratic nominee.
Third, a Democratic ticket headed by Clinton, who evokes a greater negative response among voters than positive, is a disaster for Democrats trying to increase their control of Congress. As it is, their numbers are not high enough to pass veto-proof legislation. And, given a mandate by the voters in 2006, they have proceeded to do nothing but squander the trust and good will of the electorate. Schumer & Feinstein should be booted from the party immediately, along with anyone who voted in favor of the surge and/or: the Kyl-Lieberman resolution; the continued Iraqi war funding; the eavesdropping bill; and the ill-timed Armenian proposal.
George W. Bush has already proved wrong Ralph Nader's claim that the Bush/Gore election gave voters no real choice, that the two were somehow simply mirror images. As we have seen, the theft of the 2000 election has had dire consequences for the country and, indeed, the world and has belied Nader's rhetoric. As the two-term fiasco comes to a close, we see the true mettle of each: Gore wins the Nobel Peace Prize; Bush wins the all-time Booby Prize.
The W & Gore contrast reminds me of another: the Presidencies of Jimmy Carter & Ronald Reagan. Just look at how they passed their post-term years. Carter built houses for the poor; Reagan got paid to make soda-pop commercials in Japan.
When are Americans going to stop voting against their own interests? Reagan's horrible legacy remains with us today: a dead or dying labor movement and the deregulation of EVERYTHING and their natural outcomes: corporate greed & corruption. Do you pay 29 percent interest on your credit cards? Thank Uncle Ronnie for deregulating the banking industry. It should be a clue that anytime Republicans talk about "getting government off our backs," it usually means their rich friends will be rifling through our wallets.
And it should scare the hell out of you that today's Republicans try to cast themselves in Reagan's mold.
If Hillary is the nominee, I will vote for her. If there is a CHANCE to ensure she will NOT be the nominee, I will work for that.

goddessljt: I think Rudy is going to suffer more from the endorsement of Pat Robinson than the Bernie "Mafia" fiasco. I am still puzzled as to how the repubs are going to find someone that can compete with Hillary in the General. The funds raised by Ron Paul, 4+ Million in a 24 hour period on line, is something not to be taken lightly. Around the country, from reports, signs for him greatly outnumber the others. We may be in for a suprise as to how strong he actually is and again, someone mentioned Iowa where momentum is a key factor, there is no way of knowing how many younger voters will attend the caucaus.

Lylepink: BECAUSE Hillary cannot be a U.S. Senator AND POTUS at the same time, many of us are looking forward to her completing her full Senate term. DUH.

bsimon: I check most of the major newspapers on a daily basis and somewhat disagree with you about Hillary serving out her Senate term, she can't hold her Senate seat while POTUS. The problem I have with Obama is his changing positions on how to conduct his campaign. I know he must do something to get traction, but in the past couple weeks his going negative will hurt him more than it helps, in Iowa at least. Hillary has been the leader and I fully expect the polls to narrow somewhat, but Iowa is the key and if Hillary wins there, I just can't imagine how she could be stopped from having the nomination wrapped up in early February. Another thing about these first four or five, Hillary could actually lose a couple of them and not be hurt to any great degree.

Voter turnout "tsunamis" notwithstanding, Ron Paul wins Iowa? What a joke. The real question for this race is who will come closer to outpolling Hillary, Obama or Edwards. And the answer to that is important because it determines which of the two also-rans becomes the other also-ran's running mate. Because what Obama and Edwards should do immediately upon losing Iowa & New Hampshire is TEAM UP for the remainder of the primary season. Let's say Edwards has a stronger showing than Obama. Under their team-up, Obama would throw all of his support behind Edwards, with Edwards promising to make Obama his running mate. Or vice versa if Obama is on top. Can you imagine such a Democratic ticket? Unstoppable. What do the Dems get if they nominate Hillary? A REPUBLICAN IN THE WHITE HOUSE. A Clinton nomination becomes a referendum on her (And Bill, and Monica, and Whitewater, and Presidential pardons). An Edwards or Obama nomination becomes a referendum on what it SHOULD be: Bush and the incompetent, corrupt, whackos who've destroyed more than two centuries of democracy in seven years and started a ridiculous war with no end in sight. Rudy Giuliani is BANKING on Hillary being the candidate and, building all of his rhetoric around her. But what if she isn't the nominee after all? What would he talk about THEN? Hmm...maybe Bernie Kerik's role in his administration.

Aw, c'mon JD, not the "$400 haircut" bit. That's been lame from the start, and anybody who knows media prep knows how lame it was. But it played well, so that's all it took.

Class is one of those political Catch 22's. If you have lots of money, you get dismissed as a hypocrite if you criticizing classism, and if you don't have lots of money you don't need to be dismissed, because you just get flat-out ignored. Convenient.

And the "Two Americas" theme doesn't ring hollow to a lot of people on the downside of that divide. For many, it's more a question of whether or not they have any hope that Edwards -- or anyone -- can do anything about it in such a slanted system.

lyle, I get my news mostly online, and don't have cable. From my perspective the big news lately started with the Debate challenge to Sen Clinton to actually take a position, with ongoing followup from various challengers. The Sat night speech from Obama has been a top headline at Google news since he gave it; its made appearances here (WaPost) in news articles, blog posts & opinion pieces. While the story about plants in the Clinton audiences may have legs, it seems to be less of a story than a surging challenger. I look forward to Sen Clinton serving out her Senate term.

The "Planted Question" has been the major political "News" story from all the cable outlets for the past several days. When I see this continued to an extent that has been done, I can only think the media is trying to bring Hillary down a notch or two and have the "Horse Race" they want. All polling I have seen recently has Hillary with a double digit lead everywhere except Iowa, and a few short weeks ago Edwards was way out in front and now it seems he will not even be in the top three. As one of the few Hillary supporters on this site, I am feeling pretty good about her being the next POTUS.

proud: I'm just very slick -- like a few of our fellow posters, I'm also a lawyer.

should be 'their psyches' but I have to laff at my own typos.

"but is that really a very substantial reason to oppose someon'es candidacy?"

Well, if that's all they bring to the table...

'well, let's just say I hate guys with perfect hair.''

yeah, so do I, including mitt romney, but is that really a very substantial reason to oppose someon'es candidacy?

Hey, proud... Dem men have more going on in her psyches than bellowing and swaggering, that's all.

"other than being a great looking guy, what's he bring to the table?"

A whole lotta union money, that's what. And JD, really...Edwards, "great looking"? naw. As soon as he opens his mouth and that smarmy accent of his comes rolling out...well, let's just say I hate guys with perfect hair.

Loudon- still not convinced your'e a dude. Especially now that you've brokered detante with claudia. Impressive!

finnpillsbury writes
"Rarely mentioned is the fact that our caucus will be held Jan 3, during winter break for Iowa, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa. I wonder what that will do for first-timer turnout, and their support that Obama and Edwards seem to be relying on here?"

Go read the Dan Balz piece at The Trail today. There is some speculation that if the college kids are home on Jan 3 instead of at school, they will actually have a larger impact on the caucuses - because they will be at home, statewide, instead of concentrated in college towns. An interesting theory, but one can't help but wonder if they will be able to convince others to come to their position - or if they, instead, will be swayed to supporting other candidates...

Rarely mentioned is the fact that our caucus will be held Jan 3, during winter break for Iowa, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa. I wonder what that will do for first-timer turnout, and their support that Obama and Edwards seem to be relying on here?

I gotta admit, bearpaw, I still don't 'get' Edwards. I know why someone might vote for HRC - her husband. I know why someone might vote for Obama - the politics of hope, look how enlighted I am voting for a black man, young and new blood, etc.

But what's the point of Edwards? He just seems like a tired retread to me. His 'two Americas' theme rings a little hollow these days (I'm sure his $400 haircuts or whatever didn't help), and other than being a great looking guy, what's he bring to the table?

Okay, you're right Loudon. proud -- I apologize. I didn't see the smiley face. But I really hate that silly 'moonbat' term.

You know, you're not stupid/extreme, and you ought to realize that using it makes you sound that way.

Thanks, Loudon. I went to high school in working class East LA, so it was a long tough slog getting here.

claudia: one, in all fairness proud did put a smiley face after her comments. And two, I would read "drindl country" as "affluent and highly educated." Drindl country would also include Montgomery County MD, Fairfax County VA, the Boston metro area, San Francisco, and so on. Wear that as a badge of pride!

"We drove through east TX, AK, TN, VA, WV, PA, and NJ to get here..."

That's an epic roadtrip. On the correct route, could be fantastic.

Chris, ABC News has now picked this up and are following up other leads. There were evidently plants in Colorado,too. One major media outlet, that has forums, is checking to see if they have 'professional' posters.

'the fact that the fall foliage is in its still early stages in PA,NJ,and NY in early November is unusual. Warm October, we were told.'

I don't know if you'll be on the Taconic Parkway at all, Mark -- I was up in No Westchester yesterday, very pretty. Never gets really bright at it used to the last several years, it's always too warm at night in October. Last year, there was almost no color at all. Leaves just went from green to dead and fell off. Btw, in previous years,all the leaves were down by end of October. Have a safe trip!

Thanks for yet another gratuitous insult, 'proud'. That seems to be all you are capable of. You might note that the use of the word 'moonbat' marks you as a brainless dittohead.

mark- Westchester, eh? Now your'e in drindl country. Watch out for rabid moonbats along the way, and safe travels. :)

Just checking in from my in-laws home in Westchester County.

We drove through east TX, AK, TN, VA, WV, PA, and NJ to get here and while we were not surprised by the colors in the forests of east TX and AK, the fact that the fall foliage is in its still early stages in PA,NJ,and NY in early November is unusual. Warm October, we were told.

We will have lunch in Manhattan tomorrow with an old friend of my wife's, who is a museum/library curator and who has recently published a novel, 14 years in the works.

I probably will not check in again unless we get stuck on the Beltway headed south on the fifteenth.

My brother-in-law, an engineer in Philly, is more concerned about illegal immigration than any other issue. He is moving his affilation from D to I and has not heard much that he likes about that issue.
Considers the GWB Administration the worst ever, but somehow it is my fault because I am from Austin [if I had never elected him Gov., we never would have had him as Prez...so it IS my fault].

Actually, JD, I think most of their support would go to Edwards.

If Edwards *then* drops out, most of his support will go to Obama. Of course there's no reason for him to, at least not this early. But it's a reasonable eventual scenario, and it's part of why Clinton's team was trying to wrap her up as "inevitable" before a single vote was cast. The media was obviously tempted by that storyline, but their desire for a continued horserace seems to have won out, at least for now.

'The NYT fronts news that a guard working with Dyncorp, a private security company under contract with the State Department in Iraq, shot and killed a taxi driver in Baghdad. Witnesses said the taxi driver never posed a threat and there were no weapons in his car.'

more of the fruits of privatization.

'USA Today leads with a new Pentagon report that says the military could save lives and money if it allocated almost $200 million over the next two years to improve its "CSI-style forensic science program." The military currently spends hundreds of thousands of dollars to hire contractors who oversee the forensic labs, but if it trained more of its own people, the Pentagon could save money, centralize the programs, and make them more efficient.'

So much for privatizing the military. turns out it was very very expensive and didn't work out so well..

Why does Ron Paul remind me of Pat Paulsen?

I apologize to the WaPo FactChecker, for doing their homework this time:

'"I made my decision about what to do about prostate cancer in 2000....The statistics, as of the time I made the decision, are absolutely accurate and I stand by them....I said, 82 percent chance of survival in the United States in 2000, 44 percent chance of survival in England. [Actually] it's a 43 percent chance of survival in England back in 2000."

--Rudy Giuliani, on November 2, defending his disputed claim that his chances of surviving prostate cancer were almost twice as high in the U.S. as in England, "under socialized medicine."

The former New York mayor would have us believe that he was off by one percentage point at most in calculating his chances of surviving prostate cancer in Britain. In fact, he was wrong the first time, and he is equally wrong the second time. Epidemiologists say that his claim rests on a faulty statistical methodology that would not earn a passing grade at medical school.'

See this is how Rudy operates. He just lies. Just fabricates, just makes things up. When confronted with the truth, he ignores it and keeps repeating the lies. Sound familiar? He's simply gwb recycled, only worse.

The fact is, that cancer outcomes are just as good and sometimes better, under socialized medicine, and at lower costs, because everyone gets treated, unlike here.

What about Tancredo, Hunter and Tired Thompson, JD? These losers are never going anywhere. Their candidacies are a joke. Biden at least has serious ideas and gravitas, but he's ignored by the pundits, who have already written the narrative.

Chris, we now know that Clinton and her aids had at least three planted "questioners" in audiances in Iowa. Investigative reporters are beating the woods and reportedly are findng others in other states. There are several reliable reports of her campaign planting bloggers and poters on forums ust like this one. Given this, and given some of the dirtier politics played by the Clintons. hw on earth can you or we believe anything from any of these polls?

I think it's time for Richardson and Biden to say sayonara. Of course, it's long been time for Dodd, Kucinich, etc to disappear. At least then we'd see where their support would go (I'm betting Obama) and make it a horserace.

We get it, you're running for a cabinet post; we promise HRC or Obama will keep you in mind. You don't need to bring some committed delegates to the table. Now go away.

The field is set as of yesterday in the special election of VA-01 that is happening on December 11th. Republicans are heavily favored to keep the seat, and Democrats might have a better opening in OH-05 that also has a special election the same day. Full analysis here: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/11/gop-heavily-favored-in-two-special.html

thebobbob writes
"The best organized candidate on the ground wins."

I was thinking along those lines. The speculation about Obama is that his support is amongst the young & the independent, whom don't reliably attend caucuses. Is the Obama campaign doing anything to address this potential roadblock?

'It links 9-11 with Monica Lewinsky, Bill Clinton, and Sandy Berger.

wonder if this guy's tinfoil hat has a beanie?

The only poll that matters is the one on election day. Vote Biden.

Hillary does not need to win Iowa. The voters all over the country are not blind followers to whatever happens in Iowa

Hillary does not need to win Iowa. The voters all over the country are not blind followers to whaterver Iowa will do.

Ron Paul once bested two grizzly bears in mortal combat barehanded! And he poops gold standard currency!

Ron Paul for Our Lord the Saviour 2008!

Poll This:

When you have time, and ponder 'To Clinton, or NOT to Clinton,'read the article that only one person in America has dared to post. It links 9-11 with Monica Lewinsky, Bill Clinton, and Sandy Berger. If you ever wondered why Sandy Berger stole National Archives documents, I may just have your answer.I used 30 years of law enforcement thinking to address the obvious voids in journalistic review. If liberals are correct, and OUR policies and actions create the terrorists' responses, then the Monica Lewinsky affair may have precipitated
9-11, and Berger may have been after intel reports that linked Islamic threats to the wag the dog attacks in Iraq, The Sudan and Afghanistan.

The essay is in the 'essays for boring days' section of:

www.conservativemusiconline.com

Should have been 'her gratuitous criticsism of leading Democratic contenders'

Here's something the perfectly illustrates te rightwing tilt in media, especially the WaPo. the ombudsman [likely the worst I have ever seen, is trying to debank the idea that the media mostly concentrates on the horserace aspects of campagins, rather than what the candidate's positions on issues are. The whole thing is incredibly defensive, innacurate, but this graf struck me as particularly characteristic of the way the Post covers political news:

'PEJ director Tom Rosenstiel, a former Los Angeles Times political reporter and author of a book on the news media and campaigning, believes coverage is slanted toward the horse race aspects because reporters need to have new daily stories and major sources tend to be campaign pollsters, strategists and consultants.

Bill Hamilton, assistant managing editor for politics, says that "strategy and tactics are serious subjects to us" and that The Post also plans extensive coverage of the candidates' backgrounds and issues. The Post's coverage plan, set out by Hamilton and Susan Glasser, assistant managing editor for national news, has several objectives, including introducing candidates through key moments or issues that would be important to the campaign (such as Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's common roots with Saul Alinsky, the Chicago street organizer), reporting how money is raised and spent, and developing new content for the Internet such as The Trail campaign blog and The Fact Checker by Michael Dobbs, who awards "Pinocchios" to candidates who don't get it right.'

I actually expected her to follow the gratuitous criticism of the leading frontruners with a similar comment about the leading republicsns-- because we've sure got no shortage of possible criticisms of R frontrunners --a newsworth one would have been Guiliani's attempt to install a cheap crook and mob figure as Homeland Security Chief. But no, nothing. And people who factcheck The Fact Checker find that they make quite a few mistakes--and so far, all of them have been in favor of R's.

So much for the liberal media -- it's a joke thhat some people actually still beleive this.

One thing Chris Cillizza doesn't mention in gauging candidate support in Iowa is that Mitt Romney literally PAID people to vote for him (covering their nominal fee at least, and more than that in some cases) in the Ames straw poll. Huckabee almost edged him out using merely his message.

Can Romney buy enough votes to hold off Huckabee there? That remains to be seen. On this point alone I am rooting for Huckabee. What a refreshing change it will be to have message win out over money, here in the 21st century no less.

Congressman Paul is not some crazy who will shutdown the government or render it useless through crony appointments like Bush Jr and the GOP Congress have done.

Dr. Paul feels smaller government best serves the people. The government has only gotten bigger, more top heavy and spent more of our tax dollars under Republican control these past 7 years.

We need an end to big government and the culture of corruption it breeds. Not to fear our children will have a brighter future under President Paul's stewardship.

Great article, this demonstrates the factors threatening the validity of precaucus polls very clearly.

Obviously, then the field organizations, who know the people and who are present in Iowa must be the one's with the best prognositications.

Predictions from many of them may well be tinged with tactical considerations, but they could be valuable.

Perhaps a more important yardstick in understanding the dynamic is looking at the resources the candidates are putting into the Iowa race. One would think that if they are putting major resources into the race, such as Senator Clinton sending Bill into Iowa to campaign, they see it as a competitive contest.

Conversely, the scantiness of the McCain campaign or the listlessness of the Giuliani effort in Iowa may indicate that they have written it off as a loss.

This raises the immediate question- if McCain and Giuliani cannot win a state as closely balanced politically as Iowa, what validity is there in the notion that they will swing blue states into play in the general election?

Seeing how Mark Penn, clinton's advisor, is a pollster with connections to the polling world and his partner, Doug Schoen, is working for Rassmussen, I honestly would not trust any polls this election. Penn makes Rove look like a boy scout. and I'm a democrat!
A look into Penn's background and you find ties to places like Blackwater. His underhanded ways in other countries in trying to influence votes with his 'polls' for his clients. all kinds of bad stuff.
Another thing you overlook, Chris.
this week Obama announced 268 republicans who are caucusing for him. His appeal is not just with the youth. He places high in republican straw polling. Usually around 3rd place. And his appeal to the independents is more than the youth. How can anyone take a temperature of the support for a man who appeals to everyone across the board.
So, not just democrats are going to caucus for Obama and that will make it very hard to track.

Polling the Pollsters? Watch whats happening on the ground. The best organized candidate on the ground wins.

Dear Chris:

Bolstering your argument more succinctly, especially as it applies to the Democrats, is the most recent Zogby poll which paints an entirely different picture of the world according to Iowa:

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1385

Democrats Nov. 6
Clinton 28%
Obama 25%
Edwards 21%
Richardson 9%
Biden 3%
Dodd 1%
Kucinich <1%
Gravel <1%
Not Sure 12%

Zogby offers an even more interesting spin on the caucus process, arguing that "unviables" drop-off the first-round ballot if they don't garner 15% -- with their votes falling to a "second choice" candidate. Under this scenario, the race tights further, with Edwards gaining 6 points, Obama gaining 4, and Senator Clinton gaining only 1. Of course these numbers are way under the +/- 4.5-point MOE -- and Zogby polled "Democratic caucus voters," but it clearly illustrates the difficulty in parsing the "corn husks" less than 60 days before the caucuses.

All the best,

The Political Brandwagon
http://www.politicalbrandwagon.com

Ron Paul winning Iowa, what are you people smoking! Ron Paul cuts across both party lines with his libertarian message but please, he has no chance of winning any primaries. He is just an * for the 2008 campaign. Huckabee is the one to keep an eye on and has the best chance of winning Iowa after Romney. A Romney/Huckabee ticket could be the best chance for the GOP. Hilliary is now in deep do do, because once you get her off of her tightly controlled script, she cannot think on her feet. She probably has a secret microphone to Bill so he can feed her the right answers.

Ron Paul wants to gut the federal government. Electing him president would be like putting a hungry mountain lion in charge of your kid.

Congressman Ron Paul stands the best chance to win Iowa since his views make the most sense to the most voters. He's not middle of the road, right wing or left wing or any of that nonsense.

Dr. Paul has a clear message~ hold our government accountable, stop the free spending habits of both parties and bring our troops home out of harms way as quick as we possibly can. Makes sense to me.

Four year under President Paul's stewardship and this country will be back on course.

I'm voting for Ron Paul Feb 5th in the NY GOP primary.

Allow me to pre-empt the Ron Paulites and state that these polls mean absolutely nothing because they don't capture the legions of voters who use cell phones. We'll all be shocked - shocked, I say - as Ron Paul locks up Iowa without being more than a blip in the polls themselves.

It seems that Mike Huckabee, with his shoe string budget, has made a mark in Iowa after all. It willl be interesting to see how the race shapes up from there on out!