Steamboater:

I have to say that is some of the most myopic resoning I have seen from the left. Democrats from the South or West for that matter, may not be in lock step with urban liberals, but that does not mean they think like Republicans.

Your kind of thinking will only push Democrats back into the minority and keep them out of the White House. This attitude that it's better to keep the Democrats politically pure from a left viewpoint rather than be in power with the help of moderates is self defeating.

What does Democratic control of legislatures mean? It means a check against GOP gerrymandering of congressional districts as was done in Texas.

'For what it's worth, one of my siblings at least agrees even though he hates some aspects of NCLB.'

Yes, well that's it, Colin and Mark. It's very mixed. It's a pain in the butt for teachers/kids in a good school system--we don't really have problems with literacy here, for instance. there's huge -- trmendous -- parent involvement. For school trips, for instance, we had to institute a lottery system for parent chaperone volunteers, because we always had too many. I should note I'm very involved in the system, have friends who are teachers, and have managed the campaigns of folks running for the Board.

And I have to say, I am very leery of federal intervention here. There are areas where that is necessary, and areas where it is not useful--and we in the community can best decide what our schools should be doing without [unfunded] federal mandates. However, I recognize that we are lucky and there are a lot of places where a basic level of competence in reading, math, etc. is a lot harder to achieve, and a baseline must be established.

And I must also add that there is no question that vouchers are, for many people, the nose of the camel under the tent, the attempt to destroy the publicly-funded school system, for two reasons:[ a] a 'small government' biz idea to create an entirely privatized, for-profit system where it is up to the individual to pay for their childrn's education, and if they can't, they won't get one -- a rollback in time, as it were.. and [ b] some overlap between these two groups -- a rightwing, religious meme that the public schools are 'liberal' and 'ungodly' and that no one should be forced to pay taxes to support them...these are the fundamentalist home schoolers.

Since both these groups are anti-community and unamerican from my point of view, I pretty much oppose vouchers to keep these folks from establshing a foothold.

Hey futdemp, http://www.nj.com/starledger/

Vouchers do not help our children! They are an insidious attempt by anti-intellectuals in the Christian fundamentalist movement who are determined to destroy education just like their knowledge hating god.

Where is the news coverage for New Jersey? New Jersey's 120 member bicameral legislature was up for election last night and there is not a space for New Jersey election news. New Jersey continues to be a part of the union and should be covered accordingly by the Washington Post.

Mark -- If I understand your proposal, it would work an awful lot like open enrollment programs like those utilized in Minneapolis, MN. Essentially, anyone can attend any of the public schools in the area, with individual schools given more than ordinary flexibility to tailor their curiculum to focus on particular themes/subjects, etc. My brother actually teaches in that system and the school district is an overwhelming success. If that's what you have in mind, sure -- I think that's great b/c it creates competition without essentially defunding the public schools that some segment of the population is always going to be forced to resort to.

As far as teacher unions go, there are goods ones and bad ones. The NEA is problematic, but I disagree that they're the primary problem. Ultimately, most teachers are underpaid and yet still work hard to try and do the right thing. At the end of the day, I think reform can be sold to that group if it includes needed positive incentives for teachers in addition to increased administrative flexibility. Then again, I won't pretend I'm talking about this without bias. My parents both worked in public schools for 40 years and my siblings are going down the same route.

Drindl -- I am sympathetic to your concerns about NCLB and do not have kids myself. Without question, NCLB is far from perfect. But I think a testing/accountability regime is -- on balance -- a good thing. Looking at the States that have implimented such systems the longest, it's pretty clear that utilizing those kind of metrics really does enhance performance. God knows we need to keep making gains, but I think NCLB has been a net-positive force. For what it's worth, one of my siblings at least agrees even though he hates some aspects of NCLB.

We got three threads her, not counting all of the off topic stuff. Virginia (And maybe Kentucky) means something. Washington State may mean something. Hailey Barbour won, which probably doesn't signify diddly.

One very small indicator that ought to totally scare the bejesus out of the RNC. The good ole Columbus Dispatch, as Republican a rag as you can find, loudly touts the overwhelming Democratic victories in FRANKLIN County. IF the Repubs can't do better there, they can't carry Ohio. If they can't carry Ohio they probably can't turn any other state that went blue in 04. They can't win. AND, if they can't win in Ohio, there is a good chance that other Republican but moderate states are out of the grasp of even Rudi, and absolutely out of the grasp of the rest of the wannabe mob. Rudi's consistent standing at the head of the Republican pack is probably due to the fact the moderates and progressives have their Nelson Rockefeller hopes up in a Barry Goldwater year. 1964 is the paradigm you need to observe.

I Love the thought of another 1964.

drindl, I only see vouchers at the community level - conceivably with state support because many state constitutions provide a right to an education through a certain age. There is no federal right to an education, as any Paul-ite knows.

The charter schools that work in Austin generally have sliding scale tuition, but I know they could not rescue all the possibly decent students from all the possibly bad schools. The Austin Independent School District has created a lot of inter-school mobility so I do not think we face the issues that are described for DC. I was not suggesting that I, a lawyer, know how to fix this - only that I, as a lawyer, have no objection to public-to-public vouchers - with a safety valve when there are no credible receiving public schools.

One more point, JD and Mark--how would a voucher system be financed? On a community level, state or federal?

'all the scandals, all the corruption, all the polling for policies, all the weakness on defense, all the hlooywood parties, all the amorality'

you're talking about the republican party, right? and where is hlooywod--in zoukland?

I wouldn't read too much into a small off year election Libs. If anything can be said, it is that MI got their governor back and LA got a new one. this is what happens when the truth about Dems emerges. the Dems who are winning are certainly not on the same page as the old fogies in the HOuse and Senate - they are DINO's.
Once hillary gets on the top of the ballot, everyone will turn out, not like the paltry turnout for state seats or even 6 year itches.

All it takes is a small taste of Lib governance for the voters to remember all those bad years. all the taxes, all the scandals, all the corruption, all the polling for policies, all the weakness on defense, all the hlooywood parties, all the amorality.

why do you think the 11% approval rating of congress is still sinking. Look at what they have done in a year - nothing. Not even pass approps. investigate without end and without result. Send the same failing bills over and over. criticize the military.

As I keep saying Dems, proclaim your aganda to the world, We GOPS can use the help. At a decades low for our party, you are still barely competative. Pitiful really but perfectly understandable.

'PS Claudia, if you think the NEA and AFT aren't vehemently opposed to merit pay, promotions based on teaching quality instead of seniority, and the protection of the lowest-quality teachers' jobs, please educate yourself first before posting.'

JD, could you direct just one post to me without being insulting -- and without attributing to me things I neither said or beleive?

I don't agree with the union on everything -- why should I? And I disagree with them on this.

'accountability road that GWB has' -- do you have any kids in school Colin, or talked to any teachers about this? Just curious. My community is very much against standardized testing--although I admit it may be necessary or positive in certain circumstances.
'
'Personally, I would support a "public-to-public" voucher system as a way for talented poor kids to get out of the bad school trap - and I would allow for a safety valve of transferring the voucher to private schools IF there were no viable public school alternative in the community.'

Mark, you mean allowing them to transfer to another school in the community? I would be completely for that. The problem with private schools is that they don't have to take underachieving kids--and vouchers will not cover the full costs of private schools anyway, so how will poor parents make up the difference?

should say: "NEA/AFT are two of the..."

Colin, reading the most recent posts, I think I agree with JD on the narrow assertion that NEA/AFT are at least two of the primary reasons that charter schools are not more widely available. What do you think about public preference vouchers, as I described them, above?

I would also just add that, on the merits, school reform clearly is needed. And readily concede that pushing back against many of the NEA's demands will be a necessary part of that reform. But so will increasing total teacher compensation, expanding support services for kids, and continuing down the accountability road that GWB has, admirably if imperfectly, advocated for. [See, I do say nice things about W sometimes] So disagreeing with vouchers is not embracing the status quo.

I didn't take anything personally JD, so no worries on that account. I simply reject your premise that the only (or at least primary) basis for opposing vouchers is union support. Sure, every politician is influenced by who their donors are. But ideally, and I think in practice, there is substantial convergence between political parties' beliefs and the donors they attract.

In short, sure special interests have power and that power is often an impediment to needed change. But there's nothing particular unique about the NEA in that regard.

JD, I may have missed the most important posts in the freewheeling discussion among you, drindl, bsimon, colin, and maybe some others. So all of you bear with me - its hard to assimilate posts on coffee break.

Let us agree, arguendo, that the NEA is a powerful union that thwarts teacher accountability demands by school boards and governments and opposes rigorous math and science training for teachers in college education curricula. Would not NEA ultimately have even more bargaining power against individually owned alternate "charter" schools than it has against local school boards?
Is JD banking on some transitional mode where all the NEA teachers are in public schools but some number of skilled but currently unemployed teachers staff the charter schools as sort of a cottage industry?

I have seen charter schools work and I have seen charter schools fail and when they work they are a blessing for the potentially good students trapped in bad inner city schools who can take advantage of them.

But "public/private" is a separate issue from teacher union intractability.

Personally, I would support a "public-to-public" voucher system as a way for talented poor kids to get out of the bad school trap - and I would allow for a safety valve of transferring the voucher to private schools IF there were no viable public school alternative in the community.

I applaud Obama for going into the lions' den and telling the NEA that teacher accountability is a must.

NCLB may be wanting, but accountability in public education is a worthy goal.

PS Claudia, if you think the NEA and AFT aren't vehemently opposed to merit pay, promotions based on teaching quality instead of seniority, and the protection of the lowest-quality teachers' jobs, please educate yourself first before posting.

First of all Claudia, your civility comes and goes. Don't get all holier than thou, if you please. Your hatred for all things Bush and Republican is well documented, and I question your reasoning ability on many issues. That's not to say I don't disagree with Republicans on many issues; I do, starting with Iraq, illegal immigration, expanded Ed funding - the list goes on.

You say, "This is not true choice because only the well off would be able to choose. "

Why? With a properly designed program - why?

bsimon, I believe that if the demand for schools were to instantly grow (through more parents being able to afford it), then supply would grow to meet the need, and very quickly; the barriers to entry are small.

If you look at what DC pays per pupil, it's laughable. I think you told me you live in Minneapolis - I don't know what they spend, but I bet it's not as much as the corrupt, sclerotic, behemoth bureaucracy we have here (and in many large cities).

All I'm saying is, give parents the choice, especially poor ones.

Colin, even though you and I have jousted recently, don't take what I say personally - I'm not saying *you're* in the unions' pocket. I'm saying the Dems take a boatload of dollars from them - to think that they are not corrupted by that influence is to be intellectually dishonest, as any reasonable person would agree.

Some facts about the Edison schools:

-The effectiveness of Success for All has been threatened by the company's failure to carry out the program as developed by SFA researchers. Though reading tutors are central to SFA's success, Edison has yet to provide the number of tutors that SFA calls for in high-poverty schools, and it spreads reading tutors over all grade levels, from kindergarten through grade five, instead of concentrating them in kindergarten through grade two where, SFA researchers have found, they are most effectivel.

Edison relies heavily on relatively inexperienced teachers. Typically, half of the teaching force has fewer than five years of experience, in comparison with the national average of 16 years.

Teacher turnover rates in Edison schools are high. The company admits to a 23 percent turnover rate, which is twice the national average for urban public schools. At some of the Edison schools, turnover is 25 to 40 percent in a single year, as much as triple the public-school average nationwide.

Class size also tends to be high. With the exception of the small reading groups required by Success for All, the average is in the neighborhood of 28 students per class. In some of the Edison schools, this is no higher than the school-district average. However, the national norm is 24 students, and most experts now agree that elementary school students, particularly poor children, benefit from a class size of 15 to 17'

28 students a class in elementary school is ludicrous.My daughter, in a good public school, had 16. This is the kind of corners they will cut.

'Claudia, competition is competition. I know that's tough to come to terms with, especially if you're a big-government fan, but there's no question that competition reduces cost and increases quality, regardless of venue, market, or product. '

You're just like proud -- can't post something to me without some snide partisan insult. Grow up. I have been perfectily civil with you. Your smugness and condenscion are rude. Sorry there is no human endeavor that is as perfect as the 'market forces' that exist only in your mind. Sometimes what you say is true, sometimes it is not. Education, like health care, may be one of those areas where it is not true. Children are not widgets.

This is not true choice because only the well off would be able to choose. We would then have a several level caste system of education, with the poor, no matter where they live, permanently stuck in the worst schools. Oh, I'm sure schools would 'spring up' to meet the demand and stick their snouts in the public trough -- I expect WalMart and Halliburtion, with their high quality sstandards--would be the first.

And I don't oppose merit pay. Stop projecting your skewed fantasies about what 'liberals' beleive onto me. You have no idea what you're tlaking about.

JD writes
"I'd suggest that there's no reason why government should have a monopoly on providing education for those families who arguably need it most (poor families who couldn't otherwise afford private schools). If the poor want to send their kids to a public school with a voucher, then fine. If they want to take it to a private school (and don't doubt that a bunch would spring up to meet demand), then fine."

JD, is it your position that a bunch of private, for profit schools would open up, competing for all those voucher dollars newly available to any entrepreneur capable of starting a school & running it more efficiently than the gov't? I can't help but laugh at any claim that schools can be operated for-profit on the same per-pupil funding on which public schools operate; they certainly wouldn't be able to do so while both operating under existing public school requirements & producing the same (admittedly meagre) results.

JD -- I'm skeptical about school choice for a lot of reasons, none of which have anything to do with being in the pocket of unions. In point of fact, I support quite a few proposals that teacher unions generally oppose. I think a lot of democrats feel the same way as do, actually, plenty of republicans and independents who value community schools.

Anyway, no need to talk about the actual policy strengths and weaknesses if you aren't interested. I personally think it's a shame though that you equate disagreement with vouchers with being under the control of some supremely powerful teachers union. Reasonable people can disagree with this one on the merits.

Good coverage, Chris!

Unnoticed by many was what really happened in Washington State.

Our own Governor (a Dem) and a number of state reps and senators (Dems) backstabbed a Dem running for County Prosecuting Attorney, basically setting up the newly elected GOPer to run for congress in a few years and take a seat from the Dem camp for the Repubs.

Also, contrary to national media coverage, the vote against the multi-county roads/transit was one where the Sierra Club and most people voted No, as it increased global warming gas, had political grab bag projects that made no sense (like an underfunded 520 bridge replacement with a 50 year tax that means my 16 yo would be paying more sales tax when he RETIRES) and built new highways that we don't need while our existing bridges and highways are in critical need of repair.

Contrary to the Washington Post and WSJ coverage, this was a pro-enviro result and not an anti-transit vote, but you would never know it from the spin you give.

Claudia, competition is competition. I know that's tough to come to terms with, especially if you're a big-government fan, but there's no question that competition reduces cost and increases quality, regardless of venue, market, or product. I won't bother arguing this - it's like arguing about the laws of physics.

Colin, I'd suggest that there's no reason why government should have a monopoly on providing education for those families who arguably need it most (poor families who couldn't otherwise afford private schools). If the poor want to send their kids to a public school with a voucher, then fine. If they want to take it to a private school (and don't doubt that a bunch would spring up to meet demand), then fine.

Since liberals are supposedly pro-choice, they should have no problem with this. Unless of course, they are in the pocket of the unions. But we all know that couldn't be the case - after all, the Democrats have the poor's interests at heart, and would never continue the status quo, opposing merit pay, using seniority as a proxy for good teaching, and opposing offering choices to parents, just because the NEA is a huge donor to the candidates.

http://www.publicintegrity.org/partylines/report.aspx?aid=692

bsimon -- I agree with you. The ability to exclude tends to be one of the primary predicates for private schools' success. And I say that as someone who, for a progressive voters, is very open to educational experimentation.

bsimon: many GOPers are probably wishing Davis will reconsider his decision not to challenge Gilmore for the Senate nomination. Gilmore will get smoked by Mark Warner.

Barring that I think he will retire from the House. There is talk that Gerry Connolly, who was just reelected as chair of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors -- remember, Fairfax is bigger than several states -- might run for the Davis seat, and especially if Davis decides to step down.

On schools, if private schools want to accept vouchers, they should be subject to the same requirements faced by public schools. That means taking all comers, independant of intellectual and/or physical ability. I suspect if private schools were faced with such requirements, they would quickly choose against sticking their snouts into the public trough.

Ok, if squabbling over shades of blue is a waste, how about local commentary/speculation on the impact of Davis's wife's loss on his career decisions? Does he fight to retain a square of red in north VA, or does he fold & take the cushy job on K street? Or does she take the K street job?

JD -- are you proposing the elimination of public school completely? An open system where there are some public schools that are forced to "compete" for students with private schools? I couldn't quite tell what you're advocating for by your previous posts. Education policy is interesting to me, so I'd be curious to hear your take.

Personally, I'm skeptical of such an approach for a variety of reasons. First, if what you have in mind is a set voucher amount, given to all parents that can be used anywhere, parents who can supplement the voucher amount are going to have a huge edge in getting their kids into the "best" private schools. So most of the kids who need help the most are going to be shut out of the best schools.

For the other "good" schools, you're likely to have far more applicants than spots available. Figuring out how spots should be allotted is trick to say the least, since students who are excluded from the "better" schools are likely to end up, as they are now, in a failing or at least struggling scool.

The current system is broken, no doubt, and I agree that teachers unions need to make concessions to allow for improvements to be made. Personally, I think even more rigorous teacher evaluation + merit pay are two good ideas in that regard. But vouchers, and demonizing the teachers unions -- which by and large are made up of teachers who WANT to help kids -- doesn't strike me as the way to go. Especially when many of those "demon" teachers are -- like friends of mine -- making $30,000/year with graduate degrees and 10 years of experience.

bsimon: Of course, if the determination of whether a state is "Blue" is just based on presidential election results, then these state elections are completely irrelevant and we've both just wasted several posts. 8<D

OTOH, if you look at results from state and local races, then, yes, VA is bluer today than it was yesterday.

"In VA the Dems are doing better and better with each election, yet are moving towards the center, not away from it."

That's my point!

If VA Dems were not moving towards the center, would they be achieving electoral victories?

In other words, I'm asking if VA is really 'turning blue'; you seem to be saying Yes, VA is turning blue, but only because the Dems are moderate - which says to me that next year, for the Presidential race, VA will only be in play if the Dems nominate someone perceived to be moderate.

bsimon: I don't think so. apples and oranges. again, Blue/Red is simply a partisan determination: how well is each party doing in a state? In VA the Dems are doing better and better with each election, yet are moving towards the center, not away from it.

And JD, I've met a lot of public school teachers over the 13 years my daughte'rs been in school--and I feel like the majority of them genuinely cared about her, and were really trying to do the best job they could fpr her. And a lot of them were really really bright, really dedicated, and could have made a lot more money doing somethig else. So I have to defend them.

Loudoun Voter writes
"Blue/Red is a partisan thing, not an ideological thing. Of course VA Dems aren't as liberal as NY Dems."


Loudon, doesn't your second sentence (above) conflict with your first?

Jd --I don't know how you can compare the two. The so-called competition by for-profit schools has also been a dismal failure.

What I defend is the neighborhood public school, where all the members of a community attend together and get to know each other, of whatever income level, religion, creed, color, etc. It's the wonderful idea of community -- not segregation by those factors.

Yes, there are failures in many poor communities. But 'competition' is unlikely to improve the performance of many underachieving kids, because the roots of theri probllems go far beyond what happens during the school day.

And what you're suggesting -- which I presume is private, for profit schools -- who but corporatiions like Halliburton will run them?

Interesting, Claudia, how you're the first to decry no-bid and non-competitive contracts to Halliburton et al, but you would actually defend the current system, which is a disastrous failure in many poor neighborhoods, where the Teachers' Unions are innoculated against similar competition.

I eagerly await a non-emotional reply.

This thread is an absolute joy of rational discourse compared with the Robertson thread.
I'm going to lunch. Keep up the good work.

Since when did Kentucky become part of the "deep south"? Sheesh. I live in Tennessee and we don't even call it the "deep south" here. That doesn't start until you get to the Alabama line.
It's not that big of a news story. The Democrats have controlled the Governorship in Kentucky, and a lot of other southern states for years and years. North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, ect. There's been very few elected Republican Governors there since 1900. For example "Red State" North Carolina has had exactly TWO Republican Governors since reconstruction, and have only controlled the State Legislature there for 2 years.
The Democrats also controlled the State Senate in Virginia for a very long time before George Allen was Governor. This isn't like this is reversing 100 year control here folks.

bsimon: I'm not sure what your point is. Blue/Red is a partisan thing, not an ideological thing. Of course VA Dems aren't as liberal as NY Dems. That's why VA now has a Dem governor, Dem control of one state house, and soon, two Dem Senators.

Virginia Republicans are being pushed with each election farther out into Elmer Gantry country.

One more thing: The next redistricting in VA will be a bipartisan affair. That is HUGE.

mark: In addition to the insightful comments from others in NoVa, let me also mention that the Democrats have retaken control of the Board of Supervisors in high-growth, high-income Loudoun County, which is now sort of a mini-Fairfax. Four Republican incumbents were beaten badly by slower-growth Democrats. The only GOPers to survive were one (Lori Waters) who evolved during the past term into more of a moderate and another (Eugene Delgaudio) who is just a complete nutbar and is now completely marginalized.

Democratic incumbents in the VA Senate and House who represent parts of Loudoun also were reelected.

It's a fascinating turn of events for this country, which just a few years ago was a GOP stronghold. But the thousands of new Loudoun voters have made their voices heard.

'Utah voters on Tuesday killed the nation's first statewide school voucher program that promised tax dollars for private tuition, no matter how much a family earned or whether kids were in bad schools. '

The Utah measure was the first voucher election in the U.S. since 2000, when voters in Michigan and California rejected efforts to subsidize private schools. There have been 10 state referendums on various voucher programs since 1972, all of them unsuccessful, according to the National School Boards Association.'

Isn't going over well anywhere, JD..

'Of course, the Dems get a boatload of cash from the Teachers' Unions. But I'm sure that has nothing to do with it.'

But that's their first amendment right, isn't that what you always say?

and here's what rudy has to say about health care--with what is it, 50 million people currently uninsured?

'I don't like mandating health care. I don't like it because it erodes what makes health care work in this country--the free market, the profit motive.'

sure, the 'profit motive' is working really well for all the people dying because they lack care... more compassion from the R party.. also did you see Samuelson today? Recession is a good thing, he says, because it keeps workers wages' stagnant. How much he despises the middle class.

Good for the Dems, bad for the country.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN5dqJHEnyE

Farmer's garnering of the most votes has nothing to do with Republican strength: he was a star player for the University of Kentucky in the early 90's, and was a senior on the team that lost to Duke thanks to that miracle shot by Christian Laettner. Farmer, as well as Secretary of State Trey Grayson, did everything they could to distance themselves from the other Republicans.

Furthermore, he was running against a candidate the state party did not support, who only raised $52.87, and was arrested for stalking in the course of the campaign.

Hi Judge, I'm not talking about charter schools. That concept just nibbles at the margins.

I'm talking about giving disadvantaged kids, and their parents, a choice. Of setting up a systemic incentive for the Teachers' Unions to actually encourage quality, not job security for underperformers.

To me, it's absolutely indefensible when people are against this concept - then they proclaim to be on the side of the poor kids, the little guy. Of course, the Dems get a boatload of cash from the Teachers' Unions. But I'm sure that has nothing to do with it.

Good luck to those Virginia Democrats running next year with Hillary Clinton at th top of the ticket!! LOL

were gonna have a "BLUE" christmas this year,blue in the face that is from the constant smiling at the VA election results.God iam happy!!!!!!VA the new yankee haven,Iam a bring'en all my liberal friends,yee haw!!!!

"It will be interesting now to see if Tom Davis will run for re-election"

Being a non-local, that's one thing that sprung to my mind. His wife suffered a significant loss, will that influence his decision?

"VA is turning blue."

What shade? A discussion in these forums yesterday hinged on the allegation that the VA GOP was moving right, dragging the VA Dems along, creating Dem 'moderates' v conservative Repubs. Webb's victory last year is hardly an indicator of a new liberalism sweeping through VA.

My point is that perhaps the Dems are changing as much as the VA voters.

The expected was confirmed. VA is turning blue. Fletcher was doomed and it's hard to see how this doesn't have a lot of negative implications for Mitchell in a state that although "red" tends democratic. MS a non event. Other moves largely dictated by local politics. Overall confirms the Republicans have got big problems. Clinton will be democratic nominee versus who? All the Republicans have base problems so it's hard to imagine huge enthusiasm. Overall the odd are democrats take presidency and increase congressional majorities by comfortable margins. If the economy turns south which looks increasingly possible it will be a rout.

It seems to me that national environment didn't determine these elections, but politicians were based on what they have done themselves. Fletcher was defeated easily. I knew he'd lose, but I figured he would lose a little closer than he did. Before jumping ahead and saying "Dems win in 08', beat McConnell!" Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The largest victory of any statewide candidate was Republican Richie Farmer, keeping his Ag. commissioner seat with 64% of the vote. Republican Trey Grayson, III also kept the sec. of state's office with 57% of the vote. Dem. Laullen was re-elected to the auditors post w/ 59.2% of the vote, while the Atty. general & treasurer seats were both open races held by dems. and won by dems. If you look at Kentucky's statewide races, the only politician that ran for re-election and lost was Fletcher. Sitting lt. gov. Pence had already resigned, with Rudolph running for that post w/ Fletcher. People were angry with Fletcher over his unethical & illegal activities, and they didn't punish Grayson and Fletcher for that, but re-elected them both. Mitch is in good shape for re-election.

Barbour won easily, as expected. The big news in Miss. was that Republicans won every statewide office in Miss. except the Atty. general's office, where Jim Hood kept the post. Reps. gained the sec. of state & insurance commissioner seats. Good night for Barbour and the state party. Also, this put's Barbour in a good position to be a VP nominee. Especially if Rudy wins the nomination. Also, Thad Cochran said he is now saying that he don't know if he will run for re-election or not after signaling before that he is running. If he doesn't run, expect retiring US rep. Chip Pickering to jump into that race as the immediate front-runner.

In Va., it was a good night for Dems. They certainly won there. It will be interesting now to see if Tom Davis will run for re-election or head to K-street for some real money. It will also be interesting to see if George Allen runs for the US senate seat, and the primary vs. Gilmore in the convention.

In Indy., there was good news for gov. Daniels!

"Utah's teachers' unions spent a boatload of $ to defeat the vouchers (and they better, who wants competition?). Too bad, it's the kids who lose. Reason # 1 million and 6 to hate the teachers' unions."

Of course, JD, charter schools have been a resounding failure in other states and UT is already at the bottom in terms of State support of their schools. Vouchers might make things much worse before they got better.

Larry Flint said when the Vitter story broke that there was still at least one more juicy story that had yet to come out. My guess is that it's McConnell, it deals with sex and it involves another man.
Time to retire to "spend more time with family"...

"There are things that will become known about Mitch, judge. He's going down."

You mean the gay rumors, Drindl?

The planets are aligning for his retirement, that's for certain.

For those that care about this stuff, I see that Jersey (my former home state) voted down stem cell research monies, while Utah voted against statewide school vouchers.

I'm surprised at both results - Jersey usually jumps at opps to spend money; I guess they figure they better get the credit card balance down first.

Utah's teachers' unions spent a boatload of $ to defeat the vouchers (and they better, who wants competition?). Too bad, it's the kids who lose. Reason # 1 million and 6 to hate the teachers' unions.

There are things that will become known about Mitch, judge. He's going down.

"...a margin sure to stoke speculation of a challenge to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) in 2008."

Or, more likely given recent trends, cause Senator McConnell to 'retire' in order to "spend more time with his family."

Good thing the R's like to trumpet themselves as being interested in family values. All of a sudden, they are practicing what they've been preaching. With a vengeance.

' that these 16 passed must mean that the college loan funds brought out students and young parents. I do not think it means a D tide. '

...but then again, it might. nationwide, since Katrina, collapsing bridges, etc. seems to be turning a bit that way.. but have to agree with this:

'But if Lance ever runs in TX as a D, an R, or an I, he is a good bet.'

or anywhere else. who could run against Courage, personified?

These victories by the Democrats in Kentucky and Virginia are ominous for Republicans. The reelection of GOP governors in MS and election in LA may be as significant as the elections to the north. It appears that the electoral footprint of the GOP in the future may be restricted to the old cotton South with VA, and other border states being gradually stripped off. That would mean that the GOP would eventually consist of SC, GA, Al, MS, LA, and maybe Texas and Florida for awhile. The GOP is facing bleak demographic and issue problems. It could be we are heading into realignment cycle similar to the elections of 64 at a minimum or if the economy tanks of 32, and 34 worst case.

JD and novamatt, thanks for the insight. It is always difficult to see what is going on somewhere else on local issues [I have friends in Seattle so I was getting feedback there].

Claudia, our statewide bonds included $500m for revolving student loans and $3B for cancer research. Lance Armstrong stumped the state for that one and called on the memory of Ann Richards when he spoke ["I've got to think that wherever Gov. Richards is, she's looking down smiling on us."]

These bonds took statewide constitutional amendments [really] and could have been seen as a gauge for the appetite for big gov projects. In TX, an 8% turnout usually means that the elderly and rural come out to vote agin' it; that these 16 passed must mean that the college loan funds brought out students and young parents. I do not think it means a D tide. But if Lance ever runs in TX as a D, an R, or an I, he is a good bet.

Ack, my comment got eaten. Mark, quickly, before the boss yells at me, demographic changes are pushing D voters into Fairfax and Loudoun counties, and Prince William looks a little more complicated. There was only one Republican elected county-wide in Fairfax last night (the incumbent Clerk of the Court won ever so narrowly) and some decent, competent, moderate R's lost. The R brand is pretty damaged here.

JD is right that illegal immigration seems to be working for R's, but that seems like a hand grenade of an issue, especially at the county and state level where politicians can't do much more than pound their fist about it. Once illegal immigration cools down a little, we'll see where PW County is. I sort of suspect that PW will be more red than purple in '08. And that Fairfax is now more blue than purple. And that Loudoun is somewhere in between those two.

Also, it should be pointed out that downstate Virginia R's haven't been all that good to or for NoVa, and last night's results might reflect solidification of regional blocs (NoVA + Hampton Roads vs. most of the rest of the state) rather than purely ideological groupings.

'In TX all 16 statewide bonds passed, which means the 8% who voted were younger than the ususal 8% who vote.'

don't know what you mean by this, mark... seems a sort of out-of-blue statement.

Mark, the results didn't change anything for me, in my county the guys I really like all won. The only one I would have like to see win is Jeanne Marie since I know her, but oh well. Still lots of headwind for the GOP.

Some will probably try to draw upon this election to make predictions for 08. not sure if there's a tie-in to be made, except for the general headwind the Rs are facing (which is why I think HRC is president on Jan 20 09.)

Interestingly, if there is an issue where the Rs can make hay, it's on Illegal Immigration. That's their ticket, if enough of them realize it (and abandon Bush's and McCain's foolish efforts at amnesty).

"The race we were watching most closely..."

turned into a rout...

So, how could you have been so wrong? Why wasn't this closer, as you had so often prognisticated?

Sounds like the recent past and the not-too-distant future will both prove how wrong the poundits can be, when they have as agenda...

The Blue Tide is rising, the Red Sea has parted, and the future looks downright azure!

But it is not time to reswt on our recent laurels, we need to keep pushing, particularly inplaces like Boston where the regular, everyday street-level voters are growing weary of the game.

That needs to change, before the next election. If the Dems have their ship together, they'll look closely at their failures and glory only for a moment in their victories.

Its time to hit those mean streets and find those dispassionate citizens, and kindle a fire in their collective Democratic soul, because this is when we need to KICK THE REPUBLICAN'S SOFT TEETH DOWN THEIR WHINEY THROATS!

They were wont to do the same to us, so now that the worm has turned, turnabout is not only fair play, it is essential to retrieving our deomcracy from the clutches of the Republican royalists who would gladly take it all away, and deposit it into their personal accounts, if only they could.

This is just one victory on the stringof pearls. There are so many more ahead.

If Tom Davis is out in the 11th, look for a bruising primary fight for the GOP nomination. Sean Connaughton, Jay O'Brien, and Dave Albo are potential candidates, but I think the early favorite has to be Corey Stewart, the demagogic Prince William BOS chair. Wouldn't be shocked to see him primary Davis if Tom doesn't retire.

A Leslie Byrne/Gerry Connolly primary on the Dem side will be a battle as well. I have no idea who would win that, nor any idea which of them would match up better against Stewart.

I mentioned Seattle earlier [7:38A].

See

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003998744_danny07.html

for a sense of the history behind the transit mess and R victories.

In TX all 16 statewide bonds passed, which means the 8% who voted were younger than the ususal 8% who vote.

For Northern Virginia, the Devolites Davis could spell additional change. With his wife's massive loss yesterday, what is the likelihood that Rep. Tom Davis (R-Fairfax) retires at the end of his term? After such a long and bruising campaign, do he and Devolites Davis want to go through another one next year?

Then take into consideration that Gerry Connelly won re-election as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors in a landslide. Connelly was the number one choice of Dems to run for Davis' House seat when Davis was considering running for the Senate. Connelly's victor yesterday should give Davis even more thought to the option of retiring.

Whether Davis does run or not, his wife's crushing defeat and his likely Democratic opponent's enormous win, should put Davis' House seat back at the top of The Fix' Line for the House of Reps.

Chap Petersen [spelled with an e] is a sweet victory over Cong. Davis' wife. Guess the conventional wisdom about "moderate" NoVa Republicans needs to be rethought.

JD, LV, other NoVa guys - what does this mean to y'all in your region? WaPo opines that moderate Rs do OK in NoVa.
I note all but one MS statewide office went "R" while both Houses went "D",
and that "liberal" Seattle elected anti-tax, anti-mass transit revision "R"s.

I [provisionally] see the same-old same-old; these politics seemed indeed local, IMHO.
------------------

Off topic.

Earlier I mentioned Bush v. Gore and said that it largely reiterated the law. That is true only to a point: internally, it was not unusual.

But that it was heard at all was a mistake. Hearing it violated principles of "ripeness", of "standing", of Federalism, and of separation of powers.

Article II of the Constitution, as modified by the Twelfth Amendment and implemented by Title 3 of the United States Code, makes it clear that Congress oversees the Presidential electoral process, EXCLUSIVELY.

I point out to my D friends that Bush would have won if the Supremes had correctly refused to hear the case and that the 2000 election was not stolen by the Court. The House of Representatives would have elected GWB if FL had not concluded its process in 6 days, which it could not have done.

But Al Gore would have been GWB's VP...really.

As you look around the election results, pay attention to the Virginia Senate District 1 race in suburban, military-heavy Newport News. Marty Williams (R) had been the incumbent, but because he was a moderate and worked with both sides of the aisle drew a primary challenge from the far-right Tricia Stall, who beat him.

A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation of another Club for Growth ideologue though. Stall lost last night to a moderate Democrat, John Miller, who likely picked up quite a bit of support from former Marty Williams voters. And if Cuccinelli does manage to hang on to his seat in District 37, that means the Senate swung to the Democrats on the results from the 1st District. If they handn't booted out the moderate, they would have held on to the Senate. Looks like Republicans would rather be right -- far right -- than win.

response to: (freespeak | November 7, 2007 05:44 AM)

Valid points. You can't win 'em all. Looking at the big picture here, Dems control the majority of state legislatures, governors' mansions, and electoral college votes (theoretically). That won't automatically translate into '08 victories, but taking the VA Senate and a deep-South governor's mansion are huge. The electoral college map is starting to look more like '92's. And we all know what happened at that "juncture."

response to: (henderson | November 7, 2007 02:14 AM)

It was an upset, but not extraordinary. I've been to Indiana and Indianapolis. Indianapolis isn't Chicago, NYC, or LA - it's relatively small and the state is generally conservative as heck. Also, a Repub Indianapolis mayor isn't big time like a Dem in the Kentucky governor's mansion, or Dems taking the VA Senate. Going into '08, those huge Dem pickups undermine a little Repub victory in a Midwest city. Like the Repub victories in Mississippi and Louisiana -- it's not a harbinger of things to come.

Here's why Republicans are utterly naive regarding what's getting ready to happen to them in 2008:

The Republicans posting here are trumpeting a Republican becoming the mayor of the only mid-size city in Indiana -- a Red State!

That's more important to you than the Democrats TAKING OVER THE ENTIRE LEGISLATURE in another Red State, Virginia???

Gosh, Republicans are GREAT at getting their talking points out early. But talking points don't change any FACTS (except for Loyal Bushies).

We all remember Karl Rove trumpeting "The Math" right before the Republicans lost both the House and the Senate in the 2006 Thumpin'.

The 2008 election? Bring it on.

Chris, thanks for the good job.

PS: In the Ohio 5th race, the Democratic candidate's name is spelled "Weirauch."

If everyone knew Fletcher would lose, how is his loss big news?

The Indianapolis news is big indeed. Dems gained the mayor's office for the first time in 32 years with Bart Peterson in 1999 (as we did in next door Columbus, Ohio with Michael Coleman for the first time in 28 years). Then in 2003 we got the first Democratic majority on the City-County Council in decades. But while Coleman and the Democrats swept the mayorship and Council in Columbus, Dems lost both their council majority and a stunning if not shocking upset to Mayor-elect Greg Ballard in Indy.

Meanwhile, virtually everything went the wrong way out here in Washington state. The KY news is no surprise; the good news from tonight is the VA Senate. After making important gains 3 years in a row there, Virginia's 13 electoral votes are clearly in play next year. Wolf's and Davis' House seats seem poised to switch at the right moment. Maybe Bart Peterson would run for Julia Carson's House seat if she retires.

Makes no difference if dems win in the south. They're just as right-wing as their republican opponents. Nothing for prgressive dems to cheer about.

While I applaud the Post for their summation here, it left out perhaps the single biggest upset of the night. In the City of Indianapolis, the sitting incumbant Democratic Mayor who raised $1 million for his reelection, lost to a novice who raised less than $50,000. This is seen as perhaps the biggest political upset in the history of the midwest...at least in the modern era.

A good night for Dems? This must be good for the GOP.

In Mississippi, as in Virginia, the Democrats took control of the state senate. Unlike Virginia, they also control the state house.

Fantastic job as always, Chris. Thanks for hosting the web's best one-stop page for election news.