FixCam Week in Preview: It All Comes Down to This
After more weeks -- and "weeks in preview" -- then we care to remember, we are down to the final stretch with just 24 days separating us from the Iowa caucuses.
And, it is Iowa where the top-tier campaigns will be made or broken over the next three weeks and three days. This week is an absolutely critical one for each of the candidates because on back-to-back days the Des Moines Register and Iowa Public Television host debates.
Republicans go first on Wednesday; Democrats follow on Thursday. The debates will be live at 1 p.m. (Central Time) and then rebroadcast later in the day.
New polling out over the weekend shows just how tight Iowa is for Democrats. A new Mason-Dixon/MSNBC/McClatchy poll put Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) at 27 percent, followed by Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) at 25 percent and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) at 21 percent. This survey shows what every other poll out of Iowa has in recent weeks -- it's a three-way jump ball.
For Republicans, the surge of former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) continues -- he now holds a 32 percent to 20 percent lead over fellow former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.). Former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) is in a distant third at 11 percent, according to Mason-Dixon/MSNBC/McClatchy.
With Iowa heating up -- in a figurative if not literal sense -- The Fix is headed out to the Hawkeye State tomorrow to take in the debates, catch the candidates on the stump and maybe even find time for the best breakfast in the state at the Brick Haus in the Amana Colonies.
By Chris Cillizza |
December 9, 2007; 9:23 AM ET
| Category:
FixCam
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Posted by: grami2002 | December 12, 2007 12:19 PM
"What interests me is that R strategists have chosen immigration as their main wedge issue this cycle, but none of the frontrunners has a record on it that is acceptable to the base... you know Rudy and Sanctuary City, Mitty and Sanctuary Mansion, Huckabee and Scholarships to Illegals, etc. McCain, Forget About It..."
Good point.
Posted by: USMC_Mike | December 10, 2007 3:04 PM
avraamjack, I don't need to invest time in following your link to make this reply: there's more than a few people who don't have any idea what you're talking about.
Posted by: newageblues | December 10, 2007 2:16 PM
Hi Claudia and Blarg - I am neither bot nor borg nor android.
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If you do a web search on "gang stalking" you will see over 35000 matches. Are they all fake?
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Posted by: avraamjack | December 10, 2007 2:15 PM
King Rudolph William Louis Giuliani --sounds about
right, doesn't it?
My husband and I have a family joke about my family [from Arkansas btw] -- EVERY male's middle name is eithr Ray or Dale.
OUr favorite line is, 'Hi, I'm Dale Ray, and this is my brother Ray Dale.'
Posted by: claudialong | December 10, 2007 1:53 PM
Here are some of their full names I like Paul's TLA=REP
Willard Mitt Romney
Rudolph William Louis Giuliani
Michael Dale Huckabee
Johnny Reid Edwards
John Sidney McCain III
Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr.
William Blaine Richardson III
Ronald Ernest Paul
Posted by: AndyR3 | December 10, 2007 1:41 PM
"TLA = 3 letter acronym? HRC, BHO, etc.?"
yes!
Posted by: bsimon | December 10, 2007 1:21 PM
bsimon at 12:28P wrote:
"It occurs to me that we don't know the appropriate TLA for all the candidates."
TLA = 3 letter acronym? HRC, BHO, etc.?
Posted by: mark_in_austin | December 10, 2007 1:10 PM
"... that RG would pick MH as his running mate..."
Mark, I don't think MH would be able to settle for this.
1. Much of MH's 'base' is already previously inclined to be riled up about RG's morally checkered past.
2. A brokered convention would have MH's supporters saying "my way or the highway" with biblical conviction.
3. Particularly when it comes to abortion, pairing with RG would be tantamount to treason for much of MH's support.
I just can't see it happening. McC picking MH (or vice versa) makes a lot more sense and would have fewer conflicts.
Posted by: judgeccrater | December 10, 2007 1:10 PM
mark -- the fissure between various factions of the R party is wide and deep and only going to get worse--look at this -- you may be amaezed at some of the folks he has pardoned:
'Although the Republican presidential contender and Southern Baptist preacher plays down any personal involvement in that release, Huckabee granted 1,033 pardons and commutations in his 10 1/2 years as governor of Arkansas. The acts of clemency benefited the stepson of a staff member, murderers who worked at the governor's mansion, a rock star and inmates who received good words from their pastors.'
'Denver Witham, convicted of beating a man to death with a lead pipe at a bar, had his sentence commuted by Huckabee. The action drew the ire of prosecutors who speculated that Huckabee's act of clemency was related to Witham, who was lead singer in a prison band, being a fellow musician.'
http://www.talkleft.com/wireservice?articleId=10948799&channelId=1180&buyerId=talkleftcom&buid=3042
This guy was worse on pardons than Clinton. What will the base think? And also Huckabee has the same kind of baggage as RG does in terms of immigration,
And from the other thread about the mortage bailout:
'[T]here's a growing consensus among financial observers that the Paulson plan isn't mainly intended to achieve real results. The point is, instead, to create the appearance of action, thereby undercutting political support for actual attempts to help families in trouble. As Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard bankruptcy expert, puts it, "The administration's subprime mortgage plan is the bank lobby's dream."
Posted by: claudialong | December 10, 2007 12:34 PM
Claudia, illegal immigration is a dynamite issue for the Republicans. Quite literally. A sizable portion of their base seethes with indigation about it in a way we haven't seen maybe since the busing/housing integration fights of the '70s.
And that has to really trouble the GOP bigwigs because the barely-camouflaged racism at the heart of the immigration hysteria alienates not only potential Hispanic voters, but some other swing constituencies like suburban white women and Asians and white professionals, and potentially even other parts of the GOP base like evangelicals and libertarians. The GOP'ers play with that shiny new explosive device at their own peril.
Posted by: novamatt | December 10, 2007 12:33 PM
judge, what do you think of the "conventional wisdom" of the blog that RG would pick MH as his running mate in the old fashioned deal process? MR could offer the same deal, but I think McC would not, although he could. He has spoken to wanting a VP with real understanding of tech and biotech, areas about which he believes he would want continuing close advice. An anti-evolution Creationist would not fit that bill.
Posted by: mark_in_austin | December 10, 2007 12:28 PM
"The Oprah factor helps BHO, I think - but I think at the expense of HRC "
It occurs to me that we don't know the appropriate TLA for all the candidates. Can anyone fill them in? One trivia item I learned recently: Mitt's given name is Willard.
Posted by: bsimon | December 10, 2007 12:28 PM
I would swear I wrote the last two sentences of my 12:16P post in the reverse order from which they appear.
The Oprah factor helps BHO, I think - but I think at the expense of HRC almost completely. Last week I thought HRC would finish a close third in IA b/c of her want of second choice votes. Now I think 4th place in IA will matter, b/c HRC may not be a very strong third.
I, of course, hope that 4th will be JB, and that he can somehow raise enough money to become competitive. But I do not actually think that will happen. I think JB is better for America as Chair of the SFRC than as VP, and I bet he does, too.
Posted by: mark_in_austin | December 10, 2007 12:22 PM
"At a brokered RN Convention, I have no idea what happens."
Mark, if RG is anointed by the GOP Establishment, MH forms a third party. No way he gets that far and gives up.
Posted by: judgeccrater | December 10, 2007 12:20 PM
I received a McCain Campaign strategy audio email from Rick Davis.
To me, it pinned McCain's hopes on his running strongly in NH, MI, and SC, while MH beats MR in IA, and RG finishes 4th. It claims the best shot for McC is to win NH and MI, of course, but I was unclear whether it was suggesting McC COULD win SC or that MH WOULD win SC.
But then it seemed to concede that McC cannot afford to campaign widely in FL.
So while it was labeled as a strategy for victory, I thought it was depressing, from the point of view of someone who wants McCain as the R candidate and thinks he is truly presidential material. It sort of depends on everybody else splitting votes so widely that no R has a commanding lead after the primaries, which may happen.
At a brokered RN Convention, I have no idea what happens.
Then we get to a brokered RN Convention.
Posted by: mark_in_austin | December 10, 2007 12:16 PM
In my assessment I forgot Tancredo, the Anti-Immigration candidate. He's actually really smart politically. I was surprised wwith this interview he gave to Markos Molitsas, I think that's his name. I think you'll enjoy it, it's quite candid:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2007/0711.tmi.html
What interests me is that R strategists have chosen immigration as their main wedge issue this cycle, but none of the frontrunners has a record on it that is acceptable to the base... you know Rudy and Sanctuary City, Mitty and Sanctuary Mansion, Huckabee and Scholarships to Illegals, etc. McCain, Forget About It...
Posted by: claudialong | December 10, 2007 12:05 PM
'but other half of me wants to see the best happen for my country.'
all of me wants to see that, bhoomes. i beleive you are correct in your assessment though. but i feel the same way about john mccain. although i disagree with him on a great deal, i still think he is an honorable man.
Posted by: claudialong | December 10, 2007 11:54 AM
Hmmm, I wonder if all this really says is "Iowa is not that important in the grand scheme of things." One could argue that both the D and the R results will be historically trivial. We'll find out, I suppose.
Posted by: judgeccrater | December 10, 2007 11:54 AM
I know dems better than think. Next to Obama, Biden is the best speaker, and he has what both Obama and Hillary do not have. Real Experience and Knowledge of Foriegn Affairs. If the dems go with either Obama or Biden, they should and probably win the General Election. I have conflicted feelings about Hillary, In one aspect I do want her to get the nomination because she will cost the dems big time, but other half of me wants to see the best happen for my country. That would be Obama or Biden getting your nomination. I disagree with them, will not vote for them but at least they are stand up people with real class. Believe me the dems could do a lot worse.
Posted by: vbhoomes | December 10, 2007 11:43 AM
If you search for "gang stalking" "Clinton", all of the top results are that aavramjack posts, or references to it. So he's a very prolific bot, and a very ineffective one.
Posted by: Blarg | December 10, 2007 11:40 AM
Nobdy is talking about Edwards, but he is tied for the lead. He will emerge from Iowa with momentum. He will win Iowa.
Posted by: river845 | December 10, 2007 11:37 AM
CC, could you please block this 'aavramjack'? I think it's a bot.
Posted by: claudialong | December 10, 2007 11:26 AM
Andy R -- I think the WallStreeters are really pushing hard for Mitt, he's the most dependable water carrier for them -- Rudy is too volatile. So if Huck beats Mitt, the COC, etc, will come down hard on him.
I see it this way...
Mitt is the Wall Street candidate.
Huck is the Real Evangical candidate [only the Wall Street phony televangist demogogues are backing anyone else]
Rudy is the angry white threatened male Testerone Terror candidate
Thompson is the Tired old Man.
McCain is the Principled [mostly] Old Warrior.
Question is, which faction is stronger?
Btw, I love Wait, Wait, Don't Tell me. I missed this week, but Dana Perino reminds of one of those wind-up talking dolls, like most TV newskirts do.
Posted by: claudialong | December 10, 2007 11:25 AM
-----CLINTON SLEEZE FATIGUE WILL INVIGORATE GOP, DISPIRIT DEMOCRATS AND SINK DEMOCRATIC TICKET-----
-----EDWARDS/RICHARDSON TO WIN-----
It is possible that Senator Clinton is the best candidate. However, even though many may like the policies that Senator Clinton proposes, they should also consider her record, just as Senator Clinton insists.
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The last Clinton Administration, when faced with the fact that protection rackets where assaulting, torturing and murdering people with poison and radiation, chose to avoid its responsibilities to incarcerate the criminals and to protect the citizenry.
.
Instead, they made a deal with the criminal gang stalker protection rackets to leave them alone and to consequently abandon the citizenry.
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Do we want a President who sells out the citizenry for votes?
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Do we want a President who sends a "crime does pay" message to society?
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Would you vote for a President who signed nonaggression deals with the KKKlan or the Nazi party? Gangs that torture with poison and radiation are much like the KKKlan and Nazi Party.
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We do not need a sellout President. We need a principled leader President.
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If you are one of the few who do not know what the above refers to, do a web search for "gang stalking" to see the tip of the dirtberg. Please do it before you decide to reply to my post. Here let me make it easy for you: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22gang+stalking%22.
.
Posted by: avraamjack | December 10, 2007 11:25 AM
Bsimon, I believe the word you're looking for is "caucasian".
Posted by: Blarg | December 10, 2007 11:03 AM
AndyR3 writes
"I think Hillary has pretty die hard support from about 20% of caucus goers. They see any screw-ups by her or her campaign as the giant republican conspiracy to take her and her husband out."
Perhaps.
But how 'die hard' will they be in their neighborhood church basement when friends, neighbors and/or colleagues make an impassioned plea for nominating someone with real experience (Biden or Richardson), or someone with the passion and charisma of the last Dem President (Obama)? When the 'die hards' stand up in front of their fellow caucusers (caucusistas?), what is their pro-HRC argument? Beats me.
Posted by: bsimon | December 10, 2007 10:45 AM
Bhoomes,
You may be onto something especially since Biden has so many endorsements from known vote getters, but I think Hillary has pretty die hard support from about 20% of caucus goers. They see any screw-ups by her or her campaign as the giant republican conspiracy to take her and her husband out. Also, no matter what anyone says about 60% of Iowa voters HAVE made up there minds. The question is where will the other 40% go?
My guess is Obama. He is hitting his stride at just the right time, and Oprah totally rocked it this weekend. My wife said "Heck, SHE should run for president." That is the type of endorsement you want.
Posted by: AndyR3 | December 10, 2007 10:33 AM
This is ridiculous
"Appearing on National Public Radio's light-hearted quiz show "Wait, Wait . . . Don't Tell Me," which aired over the weekend, Dana Perino (White House press Secretary) got into the spirit of things and told a story about herself that she had previously shared only in private: During a White House briefing, a reporter referred to the Cuban Missile Crisis -- and she didn't know what it was."
Are you frigging kidding me! This woman is the voice of our government and she didn't have any idea of debatebly the most important event in the cold war. If this is true the person who hired her should be fired.
Oh wait impeached.
Posted by: AndyR3 | December 10, 2007 10:26 AM
"The problem is that if she attacks them she plays right into her percieved persona of being a hard-nosed politics as usual hack."
That and her attacks about 'experience' have 1) been effectively parried with the 'judgement is more important' response and 2) rely on her husband's experience more than her own - which is quite limited.
The reality for the Clinton campaign is that their strategy did not work. The strategy was to raise enormous amounts of money early & turn high name recognition into an insurmountable lead in the polls. Now she's forced to argue that she is the best candidate for the party based on policy - which frankly is not her strong suit. I suspect she'll continue on the offensive, which voters in IA will find offensive, rewarding other candidates with their support.
Posted by: bsimon | December 10, 2007 10:24 AM
The old conventional wisdom is their are 3 tickets out of Iowa. If so, Rudy is in some deep dewdo. I have a hunch Hillary is going to end up in 4th in Iowa. Rank it as Obama 1st, Edwards 2nd and a surprising 3rd by Biden which will translate into hugh media attention for him and the beginning of the Death Watch of Hillary by the media.
Posted by: vbhoomes | December 10, 2007 10:18 AM
Drindl,
I hear George Will of all people say that he thinks that if Huckabee is the nominee then there will be blowback against the evangelical christian movement in Politics by the rest of the GOP. Now I usually take Will with a grain of salt, but he might be onto something.
I would look for Romney to really go after Huckabee, but he also might leave Huck alone and go after Guiliani instead. Also McCain might take a hit at Guiliani about the security charges for his mistress especially in the light that McCain said two weeks ago how he wished you could limit the secret service security around the president.
I would look for Hillary to go on the offensive, but the question is will Obama take the bait. This seems obvious to me and I can see the conversation in the Clinton campaign right now.
HRC- "Well folks what do we do now?"
Carville and his lackeys-"Obama and Edwards are only gaining ground on you because they attacked you, so we should attack back."
HRC- "I agree. Let's get em"
The problem is that if she attacks them she plays right into her percieved persona of being a hard-nosed politics as usual hack.
Posted by: AndyR3 | December 10, 2007 10:17 AM
Btw, Huckabee told students at Liberty University last week that his surge in the polls had been 'orchestrated by God.'
Yessiree, that's what we need in the WH, a guy who has God himself as a campaign manager. Our daily news has turned into The Onion.
Posted by: claudialong | December 10, 2007 9:37 AM
The comments to this entry are closed.
![[Iowa map]](http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/images/primaries_45x35.gif)
![[Quiz]](http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/images/quiz_45x35.gif)








I am amazed that a Presidential candidate, Huckabee keeps attacking both outright and trying to be subtle Mitt Romney's religion. Who is next? If he becomes President then which religion will he go after next? What if you don't belong to any religion will he attack that? Doesn't a President have to be able to get along with everyone? Will this bring our country together or make us pick at each other. I love America and I love that we get along with each other for the most part. We respect each other even if we believe different, if we look different that is okay. This is The United States of America. What about foreign affairs? Will Huckabee's intolerance bring us good relations with other countries? This is scary that a Presidential candidate thought at one time or still thinks that we should isolate people who were HIV positive or have AIDS. Oh my goodness! What would this do to our country? What other policies or records does he have that we really need to look at and quickly?