GOP Wins Ohio Seat: Does it Signal a Comback?
Republican Bob Latta's surprisingly strong victory in an Ohio special election last night has set off a spin war over what it means for the 2008 election.
The National Republican Congressional Committee released a memo in the immediate aftermath of the vote, insisting that Latta's win in the 5th District, coupled with another special election victory in Virginia's 1st, are evidence that the demise of the Republican party in 2008 are greatly exaggerated.
"The results of the special elections in Ohio and Virginia are further confirmation of a shifting political environment, an electorate desperate for change in Washington, and a wide-open congressional playing field," the memo reads. "And as we've previously stated, the results of the special elections of 2007 are proof that that Democrats won't get two 2006s in a row."
Democrats immediately pushed back, noting that the NRCC had been forced to spend more than 10 percent of their cash on hand in a district that gave President Bush 61 percent of the vote in 2004.
Party operatives also took the spending by Freedom's Watch -- a conservative-leaning independent group -- in the district as a chance to highlight for their members the dangers posed by 527s in 2008.
In a memo distributed to the Democratic House Caucus today, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen warned: "As we saw again in OH-05, our main competition is likely to be Republican 527s, not the NRCC. This cycle Republican 527s have pledged more than a quarter billion dollars toward beating Democrats."
He added: "There was no Democratic 527 activity in the OH-05 and VA-01 Special Elections and currently no 527 organization is dedicated to the election of House Democrats. Clearly, House Democrats must be prepared to defend ourselves from outside conservative groups' attacks and learn from these special elections as we prepare for 2008."
In past cycles 527s dedicated to electing Democrats to the House have collapsed after failing to raise enough funds to have a serious impact. One wonders whether Van Hollen's statement that no House-focused Democratic 527 currently exists will function as a call to arms for donors looking to impact things next fall.
Put all the spin aside and what emerges is some good news for both sides.
Republicans desperately needed to hold Ohio's 5th district. A loss would have had HUGE symbolic implications; Ohio is Minority Leader John Boehner home state, and the district's demographics clearly favored the GOP.
So, while the NRCC spent far more money they probably should have -- $443,000 as of today -- it was probably worth it. The truth is that a loss would have so badly demoralized their conference that it would have made raising money heading in to the 2008 election a near-impossibility. The expenditure of so much of its campaign war chest was, for the NRCC, a necessary evil. Does it handicap them in the short run, especially if the special election in Illinois' 14th District becomes competitive? Yes. Did the committee have any choice but to do what they did? No.
For Democrats, they did their level best to keep expectations under control -- despite the best efforts by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) to raise them. The reality is that although Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Gov. Ted Strickland (D) carried the district in 2006, this was never a particularly friendly seat for Democrats. The "Democratic performance" in the district -- based on a formula put together by the geniuses at the National Committee for an Effective Congress (a Democratic non-profit) -- is 43 percent. NCEC director Mark Gersh noted that Democrats won no seats in 2006 with a performance number under 45 percent, other than those handful (Pennsylvania's 10th District, Texas' 22nd District) that were touched by scandal.
In the end, both sides got what they wanted. Republicans scored a win they desperately needed while Democrats successfully forced the NRCC to spend down their extremely limited campaign war chest.
By Chris Cillizza |
December 13, 2007; 12:13 PM ET
| Category:
House
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Posted by: jim283 | December 14, 2007 12:33 AM
This is a traditionally Republican seat in a heavily Republican district. This election means nothing except to put a little life in a lot of Republican pipe dreams. The people are tired of the corporatist repugs.
Posted by: ElectricBill | December 13, 2007 7:33 PM
I find it interesting that the NRCC would issue a press release crowing about 2007's elections. I can't imagine Tom Davis, Republican presidential candidates, or those in the VA Senate were too happy about that.
Posted by: jon.morgan.1999 | December 13, 2007 6:36 PM
Your still talking aobut hillary zouk. I gues syou lost all yoru credibility long ago. All you got left is gossip and blather.
Posted by: JKrishnamurti | December 13, 2007 5:03 PM
Oh come on CC, you know fully well that it doesn't signal a comeback.
You seem to spin for both sides. Why not just stop spinning altogether? Here's what we have:
Republicans are desperate to keep their ranks at current levels. They spend insane amounts of money to hold seats they shouldn't even have to fight for and then they release pre-written spin news releases to make it look like they're on the right track.
Stop spinning for the right-wingers, CC. If reality favors the Democrats for the time being, it's okay to acknowledge that. Unless you, like many, are afraid of being called a liberal for calling it how it is.
Posted by: thecrisis | December 13, 2007 3:42 PM
you meant to say that even in LA, the foolish voters can figure out that the Libs are no good.
As I have been saying, as long as the Dems keep telling us their plans and polciies, their hopes for the future will sink. Only in the continued campaign lies do they stand a chance at all. Or they can just not answer like Hillary and pray for ignorance.
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 2:35 PM
off topic
Blarg,I was w-w-rong. When I clicked on the Edwards' story I got this:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/10/AR2007121001587.html
which is the third line title in the box and highly critical. I see it leads with the same puff as the others.
Posted by: mark_in_austin | December 13, 2007 2:32 PM
Republicans got some good news in other congressional races today as a new Senate poll from Louisiana has Senator Landrieu very much endangered: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/12/senate-democrats-get-candidate-in.html
Posted by: campaigndiaries | December 13, 2007 2:25 PM
Rejoice America, for acceleration will continue into 2008 and once again America will look to Ohio for they hold the promises of God in their hands. This is not one but one by one they will begin to realize that My appointed leader is going to have his breakthrough and the pack will be left to look back and say, this must be a miracle. And God says, why would I have it any other way for this is your year for victory, says the Lord!
Posted by: JoshuaUdell | December 13, 2007 2:21 PM
I'm surprised Cilizza didn't note that before Paul Gillmore was elected to Congress the 5th district's territory was held for many years by Del Latta, a nationally prominent Republican Congressman who was Bob Latta's father. So the GOP has a heavy built-in name ID advantage in that district.
Posted by: jbritt3 | December 13, 2007 2:10 PM
'Democrats immediately pushed back, noting that the NRCC had been forced to spend more than 10 percent of their cash on hand in a district that gave President Bush 61 percent of the vote in 2004.'
I think you answered your own question, CC. 10% of ALL THE CASH THEY HAVE to defend one seat they've held for years. As Boehner said, their fundraising 'sucks' -- becuase their policies suck.
Posted by: claudialong | December 13, 2007 2:05 PM
"on the validty of evidence obtained by torture:
'Burr's note: So ended the trial of Junius, and he was accordingly burned at the stake. But it so happens that there is also preserved in Bamberg a letter, in quivering hand, secretly written by him to his daughter while in the midst of his trial (July 24, 1628):
Many hundred thousand good-nights, dearly beloved daughter Veronica. Innocent have I come into prison, innocent have I been tortured, innocent must I die. For whoever comes into the witch prison must become a witch or be tortured until he invents something out of his head and--God pity him--bethinks him of something.
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/
'conservative-leaning independent group -'leaning'? they are a radical rightwing neocon front, CC, you know that.
"
Right claudia. I heard the best argument last night on this. "Would you be able to use the information gained through torture in a court of law?"
Enough said. The fascit inqusitors lose the arguement right there.
Posted by: JKrishnamurti | December 13, 2007 1:35 PM
SPENDING
This year's appropriations process represents everything that is wrong with this Congress. Wasteful pork-barrel spending concocted behind closed doors. Egregious spending levels. Misguided public policy. Shortchanging our veterans. With only one of the dozen annual appropriations bills passed by Thanksgiving, Democrats offered to dishonestly split the difference, and now they have offered to come the whole way.
What accomplishments this Congress has had have really been Republican ones. Democrats are working their tails off to paint us as obstructionists. That's flat out wrong. We made the minimum wage law better by including tax relief for small business owners. The 9/11 bill did not include proper protections for terrorism tipsters before Pete King led the charge to make it happen. We have the opportunity to add the budget to that list.
Democrats are out there desperately looking for a life raft right now, worried about their PR problems, looking over their shoulder to see if their MoveOn.org-led liberal base is still with them.
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 1:31 PM
ENERGY
Twenty months ago, Speaker Pelosi promised a "commonsense" energy bill to reduce gas prices. We are still waiting. In January, we were told that the Fourth of July was going to be "Energy Independence Day." Maybe next year.
Last week, Democrats managed to push through an energy bill that was full of higher taxes, broken promises and veto bait - but no energy. It was so counterproductive to our energy and economic needs that some of its worst criticism came from Democrats on the Energy and Commerce Committee.
One such committee member, Virginia's Rick Boucher, called the electricity standard "extremely controversial. It's not fair and on its merits it deserves to lose." Another, Gene Green of Texas, acquiesced to our argument, that the bill would "raise prices for consumers."
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 1:30 PM
IRAQ
When Nancy Pelosi was asked why, like four out of every five Americans, she disapproved of the job Congress was doing, she said it was because Democrats had not done enough to end the war in Iraq. Over 40 times Democrats have tried to halt our efforts to win in Iraq, and each time they have been turned back.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YzdlMTQzNzAyZjNmN2Y0N2Y2YWNkNWVmNmE4YWJmMjk=&w=MA==
And when Majority Leader Steny Hoyer admitted that Democrats would most likely capitulate to what has been our position all year long - get our troops the funds they need and deserve without having their commanders' hands tied - it did not go over well with the Speaker.
MoveOn.org, of the "General Betray Us" ad, has been humbled from its summer bluster, relegated to quietly circulating petitions beseeching lawmakers not to vote for war funding without withdrawal timelines inserted.
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 1:29 PM
That's great news about Afghanistan! We've occupied the country for more than 5 years, and we've finally driven out Taliban resistance from that town. In a few more decades, we might even control the whole country!
Posted by: Blarg | December 13, 2007 1:17 PM
Lib success:
as the budget endgame approached this week, the Democrat-controlled Congress had managed not only to pass just two appropriations bills (one of which was vetoed); it had also failed to deliver conference reports for votes on the other 10.
what an upside down world you Libs inhabit.
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 1:15 PM
Failure ----if you're a Lib
Afghanistan's government flag was raised Wednesday on what had been one of the biggest strongholds of the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan and a leading world center of heroin production. The town of about 45,000 people was secured at about 9:30 a.m. as Afghan troops, steered by British soldiers and U.S. Green Berets, drove out remnants of the Taliban resistance from Musa Qala in the opium poppy region of northern Helmand.
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 1:14 PM
Pelosi spent 84% more than the previous speaker this year. mostly on make-up and flowers.
Dems - the party of silly wasteful spending.
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 1:09 PM
wimpy harry confounded again. why won't they let me raise taxes he sobbed.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Thursday morning he would strip a controversial tax package from an energy bill and seek to pass it later in the day, after a cloture vote on a bill with the tax provisions fell one vote short. Reid said he was disappointed by the 59-40 vote to end debate, but gave his thanks to several GOP senators for making a "difficult" vote for cloture. Most Republicans objected to the bill on the grounds that it would raise taxes on oil and gas companies.
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 1:08 PM
Way to early to draw any conclusions this far out from next year. But GOP stands an excellant chance of gaining seats next year if Hillary is the nominee. All of the swings seats will tilt republican if she heads the top of the ticket.
Posted by: vbhoomes | December 13, 2007 1:05 PM
Way to early to draw any conclusions from this, but the GOP is in better shape for 08 than of my democratic friends want to admit to.
Posted by: vbhoomes | December 13, 2007 1:02 PM
spin all you want Libs. the simple fact is that you lost....again. just like in LA.
I guess you could always fall back on the Gore loss and the Kerry loss and state how slim it was. either way, you Dems seem to like losing elections and wars.
We are happy to oblige you on the former, but not on the latter.
nominate hillary or Obama and you will see the 42 state sweep. the former for criminality, the latter for naivite. Hillary will probably hand the house and Senate back as a bonus.
Posted by: kingofzouk | December 13, 2007 12:56 PM
If the GOP wants to crow about holding on to a seat they've held for decades, I say go for it, boys.
Posted by: LoudounVoter | December 13, 2007 12:48 PM
Republicans spent a lot of money to retain what had previously been a very safe seat. How can anyone sell that as evidence of a comeback? It's a sign that the party hasn't completely collapsed, maybe, but that's hardly a comeback.
Posted by: Blarg | December 13, 2007 12:46 PM
"Put all the spin aside and what emerges is some good news for both sides."
good lord. you get paid for this kind of analysis? when pelosi retains her seat in SF next year, will that be "good news" for democrats?
Posted by: cashilini | December 13, 2007 12:44 PM
on the validty of evidence obtained by torture:
'Burr's note: So ended the trial of Junius, and he was accordingly burned at the stake. But it so happens that there is also preserved in Bamberg a letter, in quivering hand, secretly written by him to his daughter while in the midst of his trial (July 24, 1628):
Many hundred thousand good-nights, dearly beloved daughter Veronica. Innocent have I come into prison, innocent have I been tortured, innocent must I die. For whoever comes into the witch prison must become a witch or be tortured until he invents something out of his head and--God pity him--bethinks him of something.
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/
'conservative-leaning independent group -'leaning'? they are a radical rightwing neocon front, CC, you know that.
Posted by: claudialong | December 13, 2007 12:40 PM
I think CC is right that both sides can take this as a good sign. For the GOP they kept a seat they should have kept, but the Dems can say "Well you spent 10% of your COH and that was still only 450k" That is trouble for the RNCC. Especailly with all the retirements that have come or are coming.
Posted by: AndyR3 | December 13, 2007 12:39 PM
hahahhahahahahahhahahah
Yeah right cc. You don't really believe this. Wishful thinking CC. wishful thinking on you rpart.
The gop is done for thirty years due to incompetance and criminality. Watch their numbers plummet when bush and his lackies start going to jail for their crimes. Real jail time. Tehy are not above the law.
Posted by: JKrishnamurti | December 13, 2007 12:32 PM
Devastating video from the mother of Wayne Dumond:
"My daughter will not be home for Christmas."
Posted by: Razorback1 | December 13, 2007 12:28 PM
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OH-5 has been represented by Republicans since 1939. VA-1 has been represented by Republicans since 1977.
Comeback?????
Have another jug of fermented koolaid.