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FixCam: Republicans Debate in Myrtle Beach
Six of the seven Republican candidates still standing will gather in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina tonight for the 1,567,000th debate of this primary season. (NOTE: That is a rough estimate.)
Coverage of the 90-minute debate begins at 9 p.m. on the Fox News Channel. We'll be offering analysis live on The Fix.
But, to hold you over until then, we offer up our take on the three candidates to watch tonight:
* John McCain: Now the old/new "hot" candidate in the race, the Arizona Senator got the win he needed in New Hampshire and is hoping to build on that momentum with a win next Tuesday in Michigan and next Saturday in the South Carolina. To do that he needs a strong showing in tonight's debate. Expect McCain to remind voters of his military service -- the state is heavy with current and former military men and women -- as well as his early support for the Iraq surge proposal. McCain is likely to come under fire for his support earlier this year of a comprehensive immigration reform measure that is anathema to many Republicans in South Carolina. While McCain has a ready answer -- "I got the message" -- it's not a topic he wants to spend much of tonight's debate discussing.
* Mike Huckabee: Once the star of the debate circuit, the former Arkansas governor has lost some of his shine. Huckabee's task tonight is to show voters that he is more than just rhetoric and one-liners; he needs to show that he is up to the job and has the serious policy vision to lead the country. Given the number of evangelical voters in South Carolina, Huckabee would also do well to remind voters of his faith and his background in the ministry. To win in South Carolina, Huckabee will need to replicate the surge of evangelical voters that propelled him to victory in Iowa. That effort starts in earnest tonight.
* Fred Thompson: The former Tennessee Senator is in a do or die situation in South Carolina. After a third-place showing in Iowa and a sixth-place performance in New Hampshire, Thompson needs a top-three finish in South Carolina to remain viable in the race. Emphasizing the importance of the South Carolina to his hopes, Thompson is in the midst of an extended bus tour through the state. Thompson has been inconsistent in the debates to date but, if he wants to have a serious chance at building momentum over the final nine days in South Carolina contest, he must show voters why he is the clear, conservative choice tonight. That means aggressively drawing contrasts with both Huckabee and McCain throughout the debate rather than simply dashing off one-liners from time to time.
By Chris Cillizza |
January 10, 2008; 7:00 PM ET
| Category:
Eye on 2008
Previous: New Hampshire Primary: Winners and Losers |
Next: Republicans Debate: The First Moments
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Posted by: rdklingus | January 10, 2008 10:32 PM
Boutan-
Interesting theory about how the Dem race will play out in & after NV & SC. Though I have trouble with the theory that a major candidate can skip multiple states and show up on Feb 5 to win a majority. Voters are looking for a serious candidate that demonstrates some appeal. If Sen Clinton had lost IA & NH, then skipped NV & SC to show up in the Feb 5 states with an "I'm your gal!" message, she'd get creamed. Someone who loses early absolutely has to recover somewhat before the big states, or they just won't be viable. Giuliani will demonstrate this phenomena next month.
Posted by: bsimon | January 10, 2008 10:25 PM
Debate watchers: Wasn't that question about whther the Naval Commanders in the Straits of Hormuz did the right thing kind of bizarre?
Posted by: Ford1998 | January 10, 2008 10:05 PM
Fox News Republican Debate Winner South Carolina
Who won the ABC Republican Debate in South Carolina?
http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1503
.
Posted by: PollM | January 10, 2008 9:26 PM
Let's get this over with. "Mitt won the debate. He was Presidential, and he looked good. Plus he will bring us jobs. Doesn't matter that he said he would in Massachusetts and instead they lost jobs during his tenure. Who cares, they're just as stupid as their neighbors in NH, yadayadayada"
Posted by: Ford1998 | January 10, 2008 9:22 PM
If there is a brokered Republican convention, Ron Paul ought to be as formidable force as Giuliani, and more of one than Thompson. In Iowa, Paul ran over Rudy and he beat Fred. Dr. Paul almost caught Giuliani in NH and left Thompson in the dust there. Ron Paul is still a viable candidate.
Posted by: txpenguin | January 10, 2008 9:17 PM
Please quit complaining about the number of debates that have happened in this election so far. I think the multiple debates are a good way for voters to learn more about the candidates -- on both their "good" and "bad" days. A citizen can NEVER have too much information in a democratic republic!
Posted by: ablasko | January 10, 2008 9:03 PM
Brokered Convention getting more likely by the day. Not Ds--they're divided into two viable candidates...one is going to get necessary number of delegates.
Rs however, divided among McCain, Romney, Guilani, and Huckabee. Delegates divided equally four ways, finally an interesting Convention! Go Romney in Michigan! Go Huckabee in SC! Rudy, prove your Theory in Florida! Feb 5, McCain and everybody wins somewhere!
So, is it too early to speculate what compromise candidate emerges when none of the Big Four will back down? Imagine what happens when, after all this, we have Governor Sanford carrying the R flag. (or, and only whisper this, "Jeb...").
Oh well, with the writers still on strike, this might be the best entertainment option available.
Posted by: mlalliso | January 10, 2008 8:37 PM
Thompson's not in the race. He's even behind "Silver" Romney in the polls...er...never mind.
Posted by: parkerfl | January 10, 2008 8:15 PM
An hour and a half of Huckabee cleaning everybody's clock in a debate that no one will be watching? How am I supposed to get a Fix tee shirt out of that?
Posted by: fourhourelection | January 10, 2008 7:38 PM
Chris,
So I guess the Unstoppable Mittmania with its two silvers and a gold that only cost him a few mil, goes unreviewed.
His soldier sons will drive harder those Mittmania color-coordinated vans from now on!
The only debater I'll be watching and hearing is McCain.
Posted by: rfpiktor | January 10, 2008 7:28 PM
say goodnight, ron:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/10/paul.newsletters/index.html
Posted by: Spectator2 | January 10, 2008 7:26 PM
Hey CC,
Interesting stuff.
On the democratic side, I want to share a theory about why winning NH will ultimately be a bad thing for Hillary...
If she lost, she would have probably skipped Nevada and South Carolina, regrouped and "relaunched" on Super Tuesday with no expectations before then. The media story would have all been focussed on her "Relaunch".
Now, this all changes. Due to her win in NH, she HAS to compete in Nevada and SC, and she has the label of "comeback kid", and a high expectation of performance.
As we know, it is all about performance relative to expectation, and expectations are now high.
Her problem is Obama has the Culinary Union in Nevada and a big Black population in SC. She will lose them both, and the story will all be about Obama's comeback heading into Feb 5. She could have avoided all this by skipping these states and regrouping if she had a narrow loss in NH.
So her Super Tuesday story will now have her on the slide, instead of having her relaunching her campaign.
Ultimately, I think this will cost her big time in the next month of media coverage, and will ultimately cost her the nomination.
Posted by: Boutan | January 10, 2008 7:26 PM
Hey CC,
Interesting stuff.
On the democratic side, I want to share a theory about why winning NH will ultimately be a bad thing for Hillary...
If she lost, she would have probably skipped Nevada and South Carolina, regrouped and "relaunched" on Super Tuesday with no expectations before then. The media story would have all been focussed on her "Relaunch".
Now, this all changes. Due to her win in NH, she HAS to compete in Nevada and SC, and she has the label of "comeback kid", and a high expectation of performance.
As we know, it is all about performance relative to expectation, and expectations are now high.
Her problem is Obama has the Culinary Union in Nevada and a big Black population in SC. She will lose them both, and the story will all be about Obama's comeback heading into Feb 5. She could have avoided all this by skipping these states and regrouping if she had a narrow loss in NH.
So her Super Tuesday story will now have her on the slide, instead of having her relaunching her campaign.
Ultimately, I think this will cost her big time in the next month of media coverage, and will ultimately cost her the nomination.
Posted by: Boutan | January 10, 2008 7:26 PM
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Are the Democrats still boycotting Fox? From what I can see tonight, the moderators and format are as good/better as any that have been held to date on other venues (ABC, CNN, etc.) The Democrats should go on to have a FOX debate soon--they need to expose their candidates and message to potential voters in FOX viewers before 2/5 Super Tuesday.