to clarify, my post above was intended to read:

Nevada: Clinton 38, Obama 32, Edwards 17
S. Carolina: McCain 32, Huckabee 30, Thompson 17, Romney 15

the "5" from the "15" was cut off for some reason

I just calculated all the estimates in the above posts for Romney in NV up until the 1:00 pm post (around the time the first news agency predictions start surfacing), and the average prediction for Romney was 36.7% (that was from the first 29 posts above) That means that Romney beat the reader estimates by 14.3% That is a blowout of the expectations people had for him. Shouldn't that make the news? No. The media instead just throws up their hands and says, "Oh, he was supposed to win." Sure he was, but not by as much as he did. Congratulations, Romney!

I just calculated all the estimates in the above posts for Romney in NV up until the 1:00 pm post (around the time the first news agency predictions start surfacing), and the average prediction for Romney was 36.7% (that was from the first 29 posts above) That means that Romney beat the reader estimates by 14.3% That is a blowout of the expectations people had for him. Shouldn't that make the news? No. The media instead just throws up their hands and says, "Oh, he was supposed to win." Sure he was, but not by as much as he did. Congratulations, Romney!

SC GOP:

McCain - 38%
Huckabee - 35%
Romney - 27%
Thompson - 11%

It's over and CLinton walloped Obama , She alone pulled more than 50% of the vote.

Obama's a republican, not a democrat

SC GOP:

McCain - 27%
Huckabee - 26%
Thompson - 25%
Romney - 16%

South Carolina

Obama 60
Clinton 30
Edwards 10

Huckabee 32
McCain 30
Romney 18
Thompson 12
Paul 5
Giuliani 4

South Carolina

D:

Obama: 45
Clinton: 42
Edwards: 5

R:
McCain: 35%
Hucakee: 28%
Thompson:12%
Paul: 12%
Romney: 8%

Nevada Democrats:

Obama 45%
Clinton 41%
Edwards 14%

South Carolina Democrats:

Obama 48%
Clinton 39%
Edwards 13%

Boko: The early Nevada returns have Obama ahead, but I still think Hillary will be able to pick up a win despite how the caucus setup is swayed against her.

NV Dems:

Obama 39%
Clinton 37%
Edwards 15%

NV Republicans:

Romney 47%
McCain 23%
Huckabee 12%

SC Republicans:

McCain 32%
Huckabee 25%
Thompson 12%
Romney 10%

Storylines:

1. Rudy under pressure in Florida.
2. Super Tuesday looms for Democrats.
3. Romney clenches easy Nevada victory, but McCain holds his own in South Carolina.
4. Obama narrowly squeezes out Clinton, all eyes turn to South Carolina.

Nevada (D):
Obama: 39%
Clinton: 35%
Edwards: 23%

South Carolina (R):
McCain: 32%
Huckabee: 28%
Thompson: 21%
Romney: 14%
Paul: 9%
Giuliani: 6%

Storyline: Let's go. We can't. Why not? We're waiting. Are you sure it was here that we were to wait? He said by the tree... do you see any other? What is it? I don't know... a wilow? Where are the leaves? Maybe it's dead. No more weeping!

Nevada (R) - who cares!

Nevada (D)

Clinton - 59%
Obama - 35%
Edwards - 6%

The republicans have a LOT to think about this campaign. For more info, I found an awesome article called "Reagan Babies" at www.SAVAGEPOLITICS.com. Here is an excerpt:

""A baby is an alimentary canal with a laud voice at one end and no responsibility at the other" Ronald Reagan

Last Tuesday was a big day for Republican Candidate Mitt Romney for he came out ahead of all others in Michigan's Primary election. To many this was not a surprise since his father was elected thrice Governor of Michigan in the 60's and, by many citizens' standards, was good for the State. This of course creates a very interesting power struggle within the Grand Old Party since Huckabee and McCain had already won their own primaries, making this race, as of Today, a three-way race. Of course, we have Thompson looking to catch South Carolina's ticket and Rudy Giuliani aiming to do the same in Florida. This last candidate has basically bet all his chips on winning Florida, if he does not win said State, he might as well never had run for the nomination. For many conservatives, this situation within the Republican pool of candidates is both embarrassing and aggravating. Here we have a process which basically tends to eliminate their most ideologically consonant candidates right from the beginning, since they depend on primaries and caucuses in predominantly "blue" states which, to make matters even worse, usually allow independents to participate. In this year's election though, it seems that all this does not matter since none of the participants seems to fulfill their base's expectations. Can any of these candidates face off against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, or John Edwards in a general election?

Since the birth of the Reagan Coalition, the era which brought to the Republican Party the juncture of both Social Conservatism and Economic Conservatism, the Grand Old Party has been unable to keep track of their own ideology, usually loosing itself to divergent group interests and in the process becoming a massive political tent that caters to both corporate and institutional fluctuations. Instead of assuming the responsibility of admitting to itself that Economic Conservatism, a belief..."

Find the rest of the article at www.SAVAGEPOLITICS.com

Nevada GOP
Romney 45%
McCain 20%
Paul 15%

Nevada Dems

Clinton 45%
Obama 40%
Edwards 12%

SC GOP
McCain 32%
Thompson 24%
Huckabee 20%

SC Dems
Obama 45%
Clinton 39%
Edwards 12%

CONFUSION WINS!

I think I'm too late for GOP Nevada predictions (some media are already calling the race). But here are my guesses for the other two races:

Dem. Nevada --
Clinton 42
Obama 40
Edwards 15

GOP S.Car. ---
Huckabee 30
McCain 28
Thompson 15

Story: Clinton & Obama still battling; Huck scores comeback win; Thompson expected to bow out.

Help me remember: Romney is talking about how he knows how to revive a dying business? Wasn't his dad the last CEO at American Motors before it was sold to Chrysler, who was sold to Daimler, who now wants to be rid of it? That couldn't be Mitt's message, could it?

Nevada Dem
Obama 38%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 21%

Nevada GOP
Romney 35%
McCain 34%
Huckabee 22%

S C GOP
Thompson 31%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 25%

Storyline
Clinton goes very damaged out of Nevada and will have hard time gathering momentum in SC. Obama looking very good instead.
All wide open in the GOP race indeed with Thompson the outside bet here and maybe Guiliani then in Florida.

Sorry, I just realized my earlier post (11:47 AM) didn't list states. should be obvious, but to repeat:

NV Dems:

Clinton: 44
Obama: 43
Edwards: 11

Obama closes most of the polling gap, but post-election analysis focuses more on demographics than on messages.

SC GOP:

McCain: 27
Huckabee: 25
Romney: 17

McCain pulls off expected win, but by a slim enough margin that nothing clears up.

Prediction: For the rest of the campaign Washington Naval Treaty results, top man varying, 5:5:3 or Integer Right triangle, 5:4:3 (there are other Integer Right Triangular results that are possible).

For the Dems the story is Obama(Hillary) doesn't do so well as (does better than) guessed, Edwards third, when will he quit?

For the Republicans The Winner gains momentum, is Rudi finidhed? (Florida, New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey have many more delegates available, winner take all, than those allotted so far , so, so what)

Somewhere in here the reality will dawn on the press that hasn't realized that the script is in rewrite: It's DELEGATES that matter, and if no one goes into a convention with a clear majority, the nominee is a last minute pragmatic decision.

The Republicans will nominate another Warren Harding. The Democrats will nominate the next president, whom we hope will be another Roosevelt or Johnson, or at least another Kennedy. Should we get another Truman, we should be thankful.

Storylines:

Nevada vows to Bubba's red-faced angry tirades and crowns Hillary.

Romney in an Unstoppable Mittmentum!!!

----------------------

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Thompson begs the wife. Will reretire with what is left of his modicum chance of ever winning anything.

http://www.elephantbiz.com/2008/01/the_biz_predictions_south_caro.html

Nevada
Democrats
Obama 42%
Clinton 35%
Edwards 18

Republican
Romney 33%
Paul 25%
Thompson 12%

Democrats
Obama 35%
Clinton 34
Edwards: 27

Republicans
Huckabee 36%
McCain 28
Thompson 22

Storyline: "Huckabee wins in South Carolina on the support of Evangelicals who came out in droves for their preacher. Paul is beginning to look more and more like a contender Both McCain and Thompson feel pressure to drop out.

"Obama's momentum continues to build. Clinton is down, but not out."

JX
http://elephantbiz.com

NV: Obama 41 Clinton 38 Edwards 12
SC: McCain 29 Huckabee 27 Romney 17

With a little help from their friendly democrats, President Bush and the republican controlled congress and the former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan have done for us what Ken Lay did for Enron. Now the idiots want to spend more of our money on a stimulus package. Have they gone totally insane? Helo 1929. Deja vu.

Storylines:

Nevada Dems - Obama finds Nevada a culinary delight

Nevada Rep - Another Gold for Romney

SC Rep - SC kingmakers crown McCain

Nevada-Demos
Obama 38
Clinton 36
Edwards 20
Nevada-Republicans
Romney- 50
McCain-28
Paul-13
South Carolina-Demos
Obama- 43
Edwards-21
Clinton-20
South Carolina-Elephants
McCain-34
Huckabee-30
Romney-16

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Sun-Times Exclusive: Obama linked as unnamed 'political candidate'

The Illinois senator isn't accused of any wrongdoing. And there's no evidence Obama knew contributions to his 2004 U.S. Senate campaign came from schemes Rezko is accused of orchestrating.

The allegations against Rezko that involve Obama are contained in one paragraph of a 78-page document filed last month in which prosecutors outline their corruption and fraud case against Rezko, who was also a key money man for Gov. Blagojevich and other politicians.

...........That money was donated to Obama by Joseph Aramanda, a Glenview businessman and Rezko associate who, sources have said, is the "Individual D" prosecutors say received the $250,000 in finder's fees demanded by Rezko. Individual D did nothing to earn those fees, according to prosecutors.

The $10,000 contribution to Obama was given in Aramanda's name on March 5, 2004, records show. While Obama's camp has said the senator did not know Aramanda, Obama's office hired Aramanda's son as an intern in 2005, at Rezko's urging.

..........Obama campaign aides said Friday he was unaware Rezko was behind the contributions cited in last month's court filing or that the document referred to the senator.

"We have no way of knowing he is the politician named here," spokesman Bill Burton said, "but we returned this money months ago for other reasons."

Obama donated more than $44,000 in Rezko-linked contributions to charity last year, including the $10,000 donation mentioned in the court filing.

Overall storyline: McCain and Obama look for wins in FL and SC to cement front runner status and force Romney and Clinton to go negative.

I think I'm too late for the Nevada GOP.

SC GOP:
McCain 33
Huckabee 32
Thompson 17

Storyline: Thompson helps McCain squeak out win, then drops out and endorses him

Nev Dem:
Obama 42
Clinton 40
Edwards 16

Culinary union voting at casino caucuses comes through for Obama.

Nevada Repbublicons

Willard 45%
Ron Paul 17%
McCain 15%

South Carolina Republicons

McCain 31%
Huckabilly 27%
Willard 13%

Nevada Democrats

Obama 44%
Clinton 41%
Edwards 11%

South Carolina Democrats

Obama 45%
Clinton 35%
Edwards 13%

Willard Romney 45%
Ron Paul 17%
McCain 15%

South Carolina Republicons

McCain 31%
Huckabilly 27%
Willard 13%

Nevada Democrats

Obama 44%
Clinton 41%
Edwards 11%

South Carolina Democrats

Obama 45%
Clinton 35%
Edwards 13%

hilaris gana con el 50 porsiento por lo menos y los demas la ven pasar nomas y los republicanos no se que gane el macai me parese lo mas posible arriba hilaris no defeyescas nunca no estas bensida!!! aunque parescas derrotada tu fuersa interior te ara triunfar una bes mas

Republican Nevada results are coming in, but if it's not too late:
Nevada: Repubs:
Mitt 55%
Ron Paul 15%
McCain 10%
Huck 10%

Dem's
Hillary 40%
Obama 36%
Edwards 20%

South Carolina:
Huckabee 30%
McCain 30%
Thompson 15%
Romney 12%

NBCNews declares Romney projected winner in Nevada.

One storyline I'm wondering if most professional observers are missing is the possible impact Nevada's results--which the AP has called for Romney ridiculously early, with 3 of 1797 precincts reporting--could have on afternoon polling.

Nevada (D):
Clinton: 46
Obama: 38
Edwards: 16

Headline: Despite endorsements, and lawsuits, Clinton pulls off convincing victory.

South Carolina:
Huckabee: 32
McCain: 29
Thompson: 16
Romney: 12

Headline: RNC gives up, calls off nomination process and cries.

Nevada Dems.
Hillary: 44
Obama: 36
Edwards: 12

S.C. GOP
Huckabee: 29
McCain: 27
Romney: 17
Thompson: 11
Giuliani: 3
Paul: 3

Nevada GOP
Romney: 39
McCain: 22
Huckabee: 18
Thompson: 7
Giuliani: 5
Paul: 4

Nevada D:
Obama- 42%
Clinton- 35%
Edwards- 19%

Nevada GOP:
Romney- 41%
McCain- 23%
Huckabee- 19%

SC GOP:

Huckabee- 29%
Romney- 24%
McCain- 18%

Neveda Reps
Romney 43%
McCain 27%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 10%

Story Line - Low caucus turnout for Republicans

Nevada Dems
Clinton 46%
Obama 38%
Edwards 14%

Story Line - Reid comes through for Hillary

South Carolina Reps
McCain 44%
Huckabee 33%
Thompson 13%

Story Line - McCain pulls it out

South Carolina Dems
Obama 41%
Clinton 34%
Edwards 18%

Story Line - Obama hangs tough

Overall Story Line for both races - McCain asserts muscle while Democrats slide into a national tie.

Storyline: McCain, Romney wins send Thompson packing, Huckabee to number 4 on next weeks line.

Clinton small victory doesn't sort much out for the dems.

Nevada (D):
Obama: 42%
Clinton: 41%
Edwards: 17%

Nevada (R):
Romney: 31%
McCain: 26%
Huckabee: 17%
Paul: 9%
Giuliani: 8%
Thompson: 8%

South Carolina (R):
Huckabee: 31%
McCain: 29%
Romney: 19%
Thompson: 13%
Paul: 5%
Giuliani: 3%

Storyline: Unions win Nevada for Obama in upset win. Mormons push Romney over top in unnoticed contest. Huckaboom still going with SC win. McCain just fails to win. End of Thompson. Where is Giuliani?

Nevada Democrats:
Clinton 41
Obama 40
Edwards 16
Republicans:
Romney 36
McCain 21
Huckabee 15
South Carolina:
McCain 30
Huckabee 28
Thompson 16
Romney 15

Breaking News from Sun Times:

The Chicago Sun-Times headline today:

Sun-Times Exclusive:
Obama surfaces in Rekzo's federal corruption case
Source confirmed Obama is the unnamed "political candidate" referred to in document which outlines case against Rezko

Obama is not named in the Dec. 21 court document. But a source familiar with the case confirmed that Obama is the unnamed "political candidate" referred to in a section of the document that accuses Rezko of orchestrating a scheme in which a firm hired to handle state teacher pension investments first had to pay $250,000 in "sham" finder's fees. From that money, $10,000 was donated to Obama's successful run for the Senate in the name of a Rezko business associate, according to the court filing and the source.

Rezko, who was part of Obama's senatorial finance committee, also is accused of directing "at least one other individual" to donate money to Obama and then reimbursing that individual -- in possible violation of federal election law.

Looks like Obama wasn't kidding when he said last week that he knew all about Chicago-style politics.

Here's the full article in today's Sun Times:

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/ob ama/749138,obama20web.article

I predict that Obama is in big big trouble.

Nevada Dem

Obama: 37
Clinton: 38
Edwards: 25

Latino vote helps Clinton eke out narrow victory. Warning sign for Obama in CA.

Nevada Republican

Romeny 34
McCain 21
Huckabee 16

Romney gets easy win as no one else really competes.

South Carolina
McCain 27
Huckabee 25
Thompson 16

Weather leads to lower turnout in Huckabee strongholds and allows McCain to claim narrow victory

Romen

Nevada Democrats:
Clinton: 51
Obama: 40
Edwards: 9

Storyline: Latinos break for Clinton by greater than 2:1

Nevada:

Obama 45
Clinton 42
Edwards 11
Kucinich 2
Gravel 0

Romney 47
McCain 20
Huckabee 13
Paul 9
Thompson 7
Giuliani 4
Hunter 0

South Carolina:

Huckabee 32
McCain 28
Thompson 21
Romney 12
Paul 4
Giuliani 3
Hunter 0

Iowa Redux: It's Obama and Huckabee.

Nevada GoP
Romney 45
McCain 23
Paul 13

Nevada Dems
Clinton 48
Obama 39
Edwards 9

South Carolina
Huckabee 39
McCain 30
Thompson 13
Romney 11

NV - D

HRC 39
BHO 34
JRE 17

NV - R

WMR 35
McC 20
MDH 15
RP 9
FDT 9
RG 9

SC - R

MDH 26
McC 24
WMR 19
FDT 19
RG 7
RP 4

Story line: Snow in SC and caucus ennui in Sin City contribute no new information.

Nevada DEM
Obama 36
Clinton 34
Edwards 27

Nevada Rep.
Romney 29
McCain 26
Huckabee 22
Thompson 16

S. Carolina Rep.
Huckabee 31
McCain 29
Thompson 21
Romney 15

Dem Line: Clintons cry foul on "rigged" vote.
Rep Line: No clear front runner emerges out of weekend result
Sub headline: South Carolina breaks McCain's heart again.

Nevada Republicans:

Romney 33%
McCain 22%
Huckabee 16%

Romney, On the Strength of the Mormon vote, wins Nevada and leads in Delegate race.

Nevada Democrats:

Clinton 44%
Obama 36%
Edwards 8%

Clinton has Obama on the Ropes. Obama in must-win scenario in South Carolina. Edwards support collapses.

South Carolina GOP

Huckabee 33%
McCain 29%
Thompson 20%

Thompson drops out, endorses McCain. Showdown in Florida. Will Jeb decide?

Nevada Dem
Clinton 39
Obama 37
Edwards 19

Nevada Repub
Romney 32
McCain 24
Huckabee 13

SC
McCain 30
Huckabee 24
Romney 12

McCain seals the deal and emerges as all-but-crowned king; Clinton snatches victory from the jaws of defeat -- but will her momentum end with SC? It's all about the delegate count.

Nevada Reps

Romney 33%
McCain 22%
Giuliani 14%

Nevada Dems
Obama 36%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 28%

SC Reps

Mccain 27%
Huckabee 24%
Romney 18%

Democratic Storyline: Casinos carry Obama, Clintons go ballistic.

Republican Storyline: Race still wide open, Giuliani loving it. With a brokered convention looming, do Dems need to reassess the possibility of a 60 person Senate majority?

Nevada Dems:
Obama 41
Clinton 38
Edwards 16

Nev GOP:
Romney 37
McCain 32
Huckabee 11

SC GOP:
Huckabee 28
McCain 27
Thompson 20

Line: The Republican have no clear front-runner. No establishment candidate. McCain goes negative.

Obama pulls away into Super tuesday. Hillary goes negative.

Nevada
Edwards 35
Obama 33
Clinton 29

South Carolina
McCain 37
Huckabee 31
Romney 22

Bring on Feb 5, we have no idea what's happening

NV-Dem:
Clinton 42
Obama 36
Edwards 10

NV-GOP:
Romney 35
McCain 21
Huckabee 15

SC-GOP:
Huckabee 32
McCain 28
Thompson 19

Storylines:
Dems: Edwards out, race still wide open
GOP: Return of the Huckster / For McCain, a victory in defeat as Romney gets nowhere in the South

S.C
Mike Huckabee 38%
John McCain 36%
Mitt Romney 20%

Barack Obama 35%
Hillary Clinton 32%
John Edwards 22%

Nevada

Mitt Romney 37%
John McCain 33%
Mike Huckabee 22%

Hillary Clinton 34%
Barack Obama 32%
John Edwards 20%

Line: GOP and Democrat races too unpredictable to call.

Nevadas

Dems

Obama 43
Clinton 39
Edwards 18

Line: Hispanic and union support help push Obama to a win. Edwards countinues to be irrelevent.

Rep

Romney 33
McCain 21
Huckabee 15

Line: West helps push Romney to another win.

SC Rep.

Huckabee 31
McCain 28
Romney 13

Line: Huckabee looks like less of a one shot wonder, but McCain looks more like one.

Nevada (D):

Clinton 39
Obama 37
Edwards 17

Nevada (R):

Romney 38
McCain 30
Huckabee 15

South Carolina (R):

McCain 35
Huckabee 34
Romney 16

Thompson backs out, endorses McCain; Rumors of dirty play tarnish Hillary victory

NV Dem:
Obama 37
Clinton 35
Edwards 25

NV GOP:
Romney 40
McCain 22
Huckabee 18

SC GOP:
Huckabee 29
McCain 26
Romney 19

Nevada:

Democrats:

45% Clinton
42% Obama
12% Edwards
1% Others

Republicans:

30% Romney
24% McCain
16% Huckabee
12% Giuliani
10% Thompson
8% Paul

South Carolina:

Republicans:

32% McCain
30% Huckabee
16% Romney
15% Thompson
4% Paul
3% Giuliani

Storyline:

"Edwards collapses and Obama comes close--is the anti-Clinton vote coalescing to form a two person race? Strong showings by Romney, McCain, and Huckabee leave the the GoP race as confused as ever with Giuliani looking to mix it up even more in Florida."

Nevada Democrats:

Hillary: 35%
Obama: 31%
Edwards: 26%

Nevada Rpublicans:

Romney: 42%
McCain: 30%
Thompson: 17%

South Carolina Republicans:

Huckabee: 36%
McCain: 31%
Thompson: 22%

Storyline: Hillary and Romney win 2 in a row while McCain and Obama lose 2 in a row, each side reasseses the strenghth of their base.

"The Nevada caucus today favors Obama in the way it is set up, but I think Hillary will surprise most and pull out a win.
Posted by: lylepink | January 19, 2008 07:35 AM"

Lyle,

All polls today have Hillary ahead. The real surprise would be an Obama win in Nevada.

NV Dems

Obama 42
Clinton 36
Edwards 22

Edward's labor history helps, but he's just irrelevant, the past weeks fighting helps Obama, who goes into SC next week with much needed mojo. Clinton's still very much alive.

NV REP

Mitt Romney 37
John McCain 30
Huckabee 10
Ron Paul 9
Thompson 7
Rudy G a lower 7

Romney does well in the west; McCain's strong as an ox. Values voters are few and far between in Vegas, not tax on tips works for RP. Rudy better pray those Floridians turn out to the polls.

SC REP

Huckabee 27
McCain 23
Thompson 21
Romney 14
Ron Paul 10
Rudy G 5
Stephen Colbert .003 write-in

Bad weather gets out the most devoted voters in SC, evangicals, the Huckaboom gets a recharge. McCain does better than last time, but no longer strong as an ox. Thompson does better than before, but bows out. Romney already ceded SC for NV and the Mormon issue may play a part. Paul does about as well as always, and see previous about Rudy. Also, some young republicans will vote write in for Stephen Colbert, out of affinity and out of protest of their candidates.

Nevada Democrats:

1. Clinton 45%
2. Obama 43%
3. Edwards 9%

Nevada Republicans:

1. Romney 39%
2. McCain 25%
3. Huckabee 13%

South Carolina Republicans:

1. Huckabee 37%
2. McCain 27%
3. Thompson 16%

Storyline: Is this it for McCain and Edwards?

Nevada:
Democrats:
Obama 45
Clinton 38
Edwards 12
Others 05
Republicans
Romney 40
McCain 25
Huck 15
Paul 12
Others 08
SC Republicans
HUck 35
McCain 32
Thompson 15
Romney 12
Others 06
Obama wins because of organizational strength and sharper message at the closing days a reversal from New Hampshire. Wins back Reagan Democrats and Independents based on his comments about Reagan. Gets substantial numbers of Native American votes.

Nevada GOP:

1. Romney: 38%
2. McCain: 26%
3. Paul: 11%

Nevada Dem:

1. Obama: 43%
2. Clinton: 35%
3. Edwards: 20%

SC GOP:

1. Thompson : 26%
2. Huckabee: 25%
3. McCain: 24%

Storylines: Confusion!

Thompson back in the Republican race! Guiliani lives!

Obama recovers from New Hampshire with convincing win! Super delegates may decide race!

Clinton 38%
Obama 37%
Edwards 25%

McCain 29%
Huckabee 24%
Romney 24%

Dem race neck and neck, all focus on South Carolina; with Thompson out and supporting McCain, will McCain become the establishment reluctant pick?

Clinton: 44
Obama: 43
Edwards: 11

Obama closes most of the polling gap, but post-election analysis focuses more on demographics than on messages.

McCain: 27
Huckabee: 25
Romney: 17

McCain pulls off expected win, but by a slim enough margin that nothing clears up.

Nevada Dems
Obama - 39
Clinton- 38
Edwards - 19

Nevada Republicans
Romney - 27
McCain - 19
Huckabee - 13

South Carolina
McCain - 27
Huckabee - 26
Romney - 15

Major Storyline: Still No Clear Front Runner on Either Side

NV (Dem)

Obama - 40%

Clinton - 38%

Edwards - 17%

Line: Obama - Clinton locked into narrow race going into SC.

NV (Rep)

Romney - 46%

McCain - 22%

Huckabee - 20%

Line: Romney wins another uncontested caucus (the first being Wyoming)

SC (Rep)

McCain - 30%

Huckabee - 28%

Thompson - 22%

Line: McCain revenges his 2000 loss; Thompson's third is not enough to keep him in the race.

Nevada GOP:

1. Romney: 38%
2. McCain: 26%
3. Paul: 11%

Nevada Dem:

1. Obama: 40%
2. Clinton: 38%
3. Edwards: 17%

SC GOP:

1. Huckabee : 33%
2. McCain: 28%
3. Thompson: 19%

Storyline - GOP: Whose turn to win next? Chaos continues.
Dem: Tension building for Feb 5 showdown

SC:

Huckabee 32%
McCain 29%
Thompson 15%
Romney 14%
Headline: Evangelicals once again give Huckabee the edge while rest of conservative vote is split

NV:

Romney 35%
McCain 25%

Headline: Is Romney now the front runner after McCain's loss in SC?

NV:

Hillary 32%
Obama 30%
Edwards 25%

Will Edwards drop out before SC and become "king maker"?

Nevada (R)

Romney 39
McCain 21
Huck 15

Nevada (D)

Clinton 35
Obama 34
Edwards 25

S. Carolina (R)

McCain 28
Huck 25
Romney 14

Story line: In the state that led to his demise in 2000, McCain finally breaks through w/ Republican voters; Clinton and Obama remain neck and neck - campaigns revert to form - no more pretending to play nice.

Obama 39%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 16%

This time Obama benefits from polling shortcomings, even Penn has trouble spinning eight-point loss.

South Carolina
Huckabee 32%
McCain 31%
Romney 18%

Close finish leaves GOP race muddled, Rudy lurks.

Nevada
Romney 41%
Paul 22%
McCain 17%

Paulites get large percentage with poor turnout.

nevada
1. obama: 39
2. clinton: 37
3. edwards: 17
4. kucinich: 3

1. romney: 27
2. mccain: 25
3. giuliani: 19
4. thompson: 15
5. paul: 7
6. huckabee: 5
7. hunter: 1

south carolina:
1. mccain: 27
2. huckabee: 25
3. thompson: 17
4. romney: 13
5. giuliani: 9
6. paul: 7
7. hunter: 1

storyline: delegate counts vs. states won and brokered conventions

NEVADA DEMS:

Clinton....36
Obama......36
Edwards....27
Clinton and Edwards win off Obama's failure to capitalise on Culinary endorsement. Plenty of heat in the kitchen, but passions cooled after the kettle boiled. Edwards in huge spot to be kingmaker at brokered convention, but Clinton may show ability to get over 50% of delegates once 5 Feb results are in.

NEV GOP:
No numbers prediction here, but Romney continues to amass delegates and negates to an extent the SC fiasco for him. Poor rhyme for the day: Romney delgates, SC negates

SC:

McCain 34%
Huckabee 37%
Thompson 18%

Best day yet for Giuliani. Party pros fear Huckabee, hate McCain and begin to realise one candidate can enter the fray with credentials on security AND the economy. Now, Rudy has to clean up his image and show well in Florida to make his day on 5 Feb.

Nevada: Obama 43, Clinton 35, Edwards 12
South Carolina: Huckabee 30, McCain 27, Romney 15, Thompson 15

Nevada (R)

Romney 44%
McCain 21%
Thompson 16%
*"was there a republican contest here today?"...turnout 1/4 of democratic caucus

Nevada (D)

Obama 36%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 31%
*"Having 3rd contest in NV was a mistake"...corruption, voter fraud, unpreparedness all over, but hey, what else did you expect?

SC (R)

McCain 38%
Huckabee 34%
Romney 22%
"Ghosts of election past do not resurface...In Thompson's concession speech (his best of the campaign) he drops out and endorses his friend McCain.

Nevada Dems:
Obama- 42%
Clinton- 35%
Edwards- 15%

Nevada Repubs-
Romney- 39%
McCain- 29%
Huckabee-21%

SC Repubs-
McCain- 35%
Thompson- 27%
Huckabee-25%

Storyline- Obamamania is back as the candidate tries to close the deal in South Carolina.

Breaking News "Hillary is on her way to the Democratic nomination after stunning upsets in Nevada and SC. With these victories under her belt, Hillary Rodham Clinton is all but assured the Democratic nomination for The POTUS, and well on the way to victory in 2008."

Nevada:

Dem: Obama 39
Clinton 38
Edwards 21

GOP: Romney 41
McCain 20
Huckabee 15

S.C

Dem: Obama 39
Clinton 34
Edwards 15

Line: Still no prohibitive winners - it's onto Super Tuesday.

Nevada Republicans:

Romney: 37%
McCain: 24%
Huckabee: 16%

Nevada Democrats:
Obama: 38%
Clinton: 36%
Edwards: 17%

South Carolina Republicans
Huckabee: 28%
McCain: 23%
Thompson 20%

Storyline:
Republican--Chaos theory--On to Florida for the Republicans;Deocrats-- Hillary momentum slowed; Obama South Carolina victory predicted; showdown on Super Tuesday

#1--Yes, post your predictions here.

Nevada: Clinton 37, Obama 35
South Carolina: McCain 29, Huckabee 27, Romney 19, Thompson 12

Storyline: Edwards, Thompson to drop out

Nevada Dems:
Clinton 40
Obama 38
Edwards 16

Nev GOP:
Romney 41
McCain 20
Huckabee 16

SC GOP:
Huckabee 28
McCain 27
Thompson 22

Line: Thompson Out, McCain Badly Hurt; Obama Looks to SC to Rebound;
Romney: Crazy Like a Fox?;
All eyes on Florida, especially Rudy's

Nevada: Clinton 38, Obama 32, Edwards 17
S. Carolina: McCain 32, Huckabee 30, Thompson 17, Romney 1

ok, i want to play.

but get my predictions in where? here?

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