Everyone has to check out the article "White Voters with a Side of Hispanics" on the blogzine Savage Politics. This is an awesome discussion and analysis on the current Democrat and GOP candidates and their eligibility.

www.savagepolitics.com
Here is an excerpt: "Tuesday night's Florida Primary was a very important episode in the drama in which both the Republican and Democrat Parties are unfolding towards the Presidency of the United States. It also dramatically demonstrated the incredible bias that the Media continues to display towards the Democratic hopeful Barack Obama, in spite of all the evidence pointing to his lack of viability. From MSNBC's Chris Mathews, who openly stated the day before that any Network that decided to report on the Democratic voting results in Florida was proving a "gross" favoritism for Hillary (ironically enough his Network ended up having to cover it nevertheless), to CNN's pundits, who continuously utilized the exact same rhetoric that the Obama Campaign was spewing to excuse their defeat ("Beauty Pageant" was their favorite phrase, with all the sexist connotations it implies). All the same, the Florida results in the Democratic side were overwhelmingly favorable to Hillary Clinton, who won a 50% margin, to Obama's 33%, Edwards' 14%, and Gravel's 1%. On the Republican side, it was John McCain who came out victorious with a 36% margin, to Romney's 31%, Giuliani's 15%, Huckabee's 14%, and Paul's 3%. Let's discuss each Party's results and their realistic consequence.
First, we have the very significant victory of John McCain. His candidacy was, from the very start, labeled as a failure due to his unpopularity amongst most "base" Republicans, much of it owed to McCain's overwhelmingly dubious record on Conservative issues. His notorious tendency to side with multiple (highly despised) Democrats on issues like Immigration, Bush's Tax Cuts and other measures, have always been enough to marginalize him from even the "moderate wing" within his Party. Still, when the Florida Exit Polls are analyzed, they reflect many unexpected re-alignments in his favor. Evangelical/Born Again Christians voted for John McCain in a 30% margin, in comparison to both Romney's and Huckabee's 29%. This may seem like an insignificant difference, but when you also consider that the majority of non-Evangelicals (Catholics, Atheist, etc.) also..." Find the rest of the article at http://savagepolitics.com/?p=64

Well, well, what do we see ? All important liemericans together. Anything to explain about building 7 ladies and gentlemen ? Anything to say about using 9 barrels and finding only 1 new barrel ? Keepin up the good news then, cheerio. I whish PRESIDENT OBAMA a lot of wisdom.

McCain 36
Romney 30
Giuliani 14
Huckabee 14

McCain Sails to another victory, Romney Presses on, Guiliani to drop out.

Posted by: dd1101a | January 29, 2008 12:49 PM

You look like the winner to me.

Some of the right wingers are going to be apoplectic that McCain won a closed primary.

Well, well, what do we see ? All important liemericans together. Anything to explain about building 7 ladies and gentlemen ? Anything to say about using 9 barrels and finding only 1 new barrel ? Keepin up the good news then, cheerio. I whish PRESIDENT OBAMA a lot of wisdom.

Romney: 38
McCain: 32
Rudy: 15
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 3

The Economy Strikes Back! Romney lives another day as he convincingly beats McCain on the back of Economic stress.

Clinton: 49
Obama: 30
Edwards: 11

Hillary has a strong showing in a beauty contest, but is unable to get a majority of Democrats on her side. February 5th might not be decisive after all.

McCain 34, Romney 33, Giuliani 17

Key endorsements help McCain win crucial primary. Giuliani on way out?

romney 34
mcCain 33
Rudy 19
Huckabee 8

McCain - 32%
Romney - 32%
Rudy - 15%

Recount, Part Deux! Fla. once again too close to call; Rudy wishes he was still a Dem

Just to try something different.

Romney 30
McCain 28
Giuliani 21

Early votes for Giuliani siphon off some of McCain's moderate support. Romney and McCain go into Feb 5 with the media hesitant to declare either a front runner. Many entertain the possibility that Giuliani, seeing his numbers falling in the northeast, will drop out and endorse McCain before Feb 5.

Headline: Romney's Diligence and Dollars Reap Dividends in the Sunshine State

Romney: 38%
McCain: 30%
Giuliani: 17%
Huckabee: 15%

McCain - 34.3%
Romney - 33.9%
Rudy - 15.2%
Huckabee - 13.8%

Storyline: Rudy declares a convincing victory for third place. Romney focuses on his overall lead in delegate count & how Florida has just pushed him closer to the goal-line. Flush with victory, McCain nevertheless resists the urge to point out that Rush Limbaugh remains a big fat idiot.

Romney 34%
McCain 32%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 5%

Headlines: Giuliani and McCain stopped in Florida

McCain 33
Romney 31
Huckabee 14

The storyline leading out of Florida will be "Giuliani out of the race - McCain, Romney duel for voters in what is becoming a two-person shootout for the Republican nomination."

I just want to add, but not for purposes of betting on the leading coverage coming out of the primary, that I think HRC's quest to make Florida relevant in the delegate totals and going into Super Tuesday will be a close second to the Republican outcome in terms of coverage.

Size Large shirt por favor.

McCain 39
Romney 34
Huckabee 17
Giuliani 10

To everyone's surprise, McCain wins definitively, and Giuliani chokes much harder than anyone expected.

Romney- 33
McCain- 30
Guiliani- 18
Huckabee- 14

Romney is new frontrunner for GOP, McCain is low on cash has yet to win a closed primary. The once national frontrunner Guiliani is done.

For the Dems, Hillary wins big, vows to seat delegates and claims Obama has no momentum.

thanks g-money.

we at the detnews love your stuf.

McCain 34%
Giuliani 31%
Romney 19%
Huckabee 15%

Story: Rudy dances the night away in close second finish - Chris Cillizza in bed promptly at 9pm.

Romney: 36
McCain: 30
Guiliani: 15

Headline: Republican Nomination Still Up for Grabs. McCain Fares Worse in Closed Primary: Can He Overcome the Distrust of the Base?

McCain 38%
Romney 34%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 8%
Paul 4%

Oops, forgot storyline:

McCain wins hard fought victory of Romney as national security becomes the main issue of Florida primary. Giuliani drops out.

Medium please.

McCain 35%
Giuliani 30%
Romney 29%

Last minute TV spend and Crist endorsement gives McCain clear lead. Rudy squeaks past Romney, promptly annoints himself "comeback kid".

Romney stays in. Rudy fizzles. McCain wins Feb 5 and beyond.

McCain: 35 percent
Romney: 33 percent
Giuliani: 14 percent
Huckabee: 10 percent
Paul: 8 percent

McCain pulls out win in a tight race that can't be called until late in the evening; gains momentum going into Super Tuesday. Giuliani drops out of the race.

Okay, I signed in with another email addy, I can't help my username, so use "Thesushi" if you want.

McCain 32%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 22%
Huckabee 15%

Giuliani wins outright in early balloting, of which was a partial strategy in itself. Romney and McCain have no mandate to pursue to Super Tuesday, confounding the press and pundits to a degree of alcoholism.

Mako from Detroit out.

PS: I just want to see my name in lights, and be the Superpundit of common folk.

McCain 38%
Romney 34%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 8%
Paul 4%

Medium please.

Romney: 38
McCain: 35
Guliani: 12
Huckabee: 9
Paul: 4

Romney wins the Latino vote. Romney wins because of economic background. When will Guliani call a press conference?

McCain: 40
Romney: 32
Giuliani: 16
Huckabee: 9
Paul: 3

Story: Early voting propels Giuliani to 3rd ahead of Huckabee. Giuliani to withdraw from the race.

McCain 35
Romney 33
Giuliani 13

Storyline: Squeaker propels McCain to undisputed front-runner status; Rudy is toast.

Romney 34%
McCain 32%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

Romney big spending pays off as closed Republican primary goes to the former Governor. Giuliani's one state strategy proves to be his undoing. It's a two person race for the Republicans.

McCain 40 Romney 33 Giuliani 20 Huckabee 6 Paul 1

McCain romp as veterans flock to polls.

McCain: 40
Romney: 32
Guiliani: 15
Huck: 10

Storline: McCain emerges as clear front-runner, despite economy dominating voter concerns. But Romney has private funds to continue race indefinitely. Guiliani likely to exit.

McCain 31
Romney 29
Giuliani 20
Huckabee 14
Paul 6

Storyline: Immigrant-bashing is bad politics, not to mention bad policy.

McCain 35
Romney 30
Guiliani 15
Huckabee 14

McCain ready for Super Tuesday. Can the others still make lemonade?

There no sense in doing the Dems:

Clinton 45
Obama 38
Edwards 17

Republicans

McCain 55
Romney 35
Huckabee 10

Romney - 35
McCain - 32
Giuliani - 14
Huckster - 13

Romney expands delegate lead but does he have the momentum to win on Plain Old Tuesday?; Lack of voter support and funding signal end of Hizzonner; Clinton wins as expected but does it matter?

McCain: 35%
Romney: 29%
Guiliani: 18%
Huckabee: 16%

Storyline: Is it over?

McCain: 35%
Romney: 32%
Guiliani: 15%
Huckabee: 12%

McCain narrowly wins, is now front runner for the Republican nomination. Romney's money will be huge for Feb. 5. Will Huck's southern strategy on Feb. 5 keep him in, or will McCain sweep those as well?

Romney 36%

McCain 30%

Guliani 15%

"Romney beats McCain; Still no clear frontrunner for the GOP"

"Guliani may as well pack up and go home and admit that his Florida strategy was stupid."

Romney: 42%
McCain: 33%
Giuliani: 12%

Romney wins convincingly in the first closed primary. He is now the front-runner going into Super Tuesday. McCain is still not finished because of his dominance in the North and the Huckabee split in the South. Romney will need big wins in the West to pull out the nomination. California could be critical.

re Dems:
Clinton 55%
Obama 26%
Edwards 19%

Despite national cold shoulder, more Florida Dems vote than Reps. Clinton wins every demographic category, Kennedy endorsement sinks Obama in South Florida.

Romney 32
McCain 29
Huck 16

"Mac's perceived lack of conservative credentials and economic worries edge Romney past Mac in FL.

"Voice of God spurs evangelical voters past 'godless' Guiliani.

re Dems:
Clinton 55%
Obama 26%
Edwards 19%

Clinton wins every demographic category, Kennedy endorsement sinks Obama in South Florida.

Romney: 29
McCain: 26
Huckabee: 17
Giuliani: 15
Paul: 13

Storyline: Giuliani's poor performance prompts dropout, followed by a surprise Romney endorsement.

ROMNEY 39 McCAIN 32 GIULIANI 18 I CAN FEEL A SURGE FOR ROMNEY, ITS THE ECONOMY. PLUS SEN.McCAIN IS A REALLY BAD COMPAIGNER.

McCain 28
Romney 27
Huckabee 18
Guliani 17
Paul 5

Guliani finish poorly and MCcain now the new front runner. GOPs will probably rally behind Romney.

Romney: 34
McCain: 31
Huckabee: 17

Storyline: An end in sight? Come from behind win gives Romney the big mo' heading into Super Tuesday.

McCain 34
Romney 30
Guiliani 21
Huckabee 12
Paul 3

Clinton 51
Obama 44
Edwards 5

Democratic race is perceived by everyone except John Edwards to have only two participants.

Romney: 33
McCain: 30
Guiliani: 24
Huckabee: 10
Paul: 3

Romney wins as the economy dominates voters thoughts. Romney emerges as the clear front runner as McCain's inability to win a closed primary with strong endorsements leads many to question his viability. Guiliani drops out but does not endorse anyone until after super Tuesday making him irrelelvant.

McCain, 36%
Romney, 30%
Huckabee, 15%
Guiliani, 12%
Paul, 4%
Harold Stassen, 3%

Headline: McCain reluctant fallback choice of Republicans when informed that Harold Stassen is dead.

Romney 29.5
McCain 29.4
Guiliani 22
Huckabee 12
Paul 6

McCain: 33
Romney: 27
Huckabee: 19
Guiliani: 17
Paul: 4

Headlines: McCain train keeps on chuggin'.... Guiliani's Florida gamble doesn't pay dividends... Floridian Evangelicals boost V.P. chances for Huckabee, but put another nail in Romney's Mormon coffin... Ron Paul underperforms (compared to his bank account) yet again...

McCain - 31
Romney - 30
Giuliani - 26
Huck: 12
Paul - 1
McCain owes his win to Charlie Crist, who proves the value of the Fix-dubbed state-wide state-specific endorsement. Giuliani comes in third, but keeps it close.

Guilliani - 29%
Romney - 27%
McCain - 23%
Huckabee - 18%

Early voting, combined with unsavory tactics on the part of Romney and McCain, help Guiliani. nyfan304 brags about how he didn't really think Guiliani would win, but knew that in the unlikely event that he did, the probability of receiving a Fix t-shirt in the mail would greatly improve. He will no longer feel the need to claim that he really did have a gut feeling about Hillary in New Hampshire, but instead followed his brain, which was itself abiding by wisdom in numbers(of pundits).

Sorry John, its the economy which is already in a recession notwithstanding DUBYA's denial of the economic facts. The economic facts of life go far beyond a US real estate market which has only begun its downward spiral, one that won't bottom out until 2010! Consumer spending won't be turned around from a decline over the next 2-3 years by a tax rebate check which comes in the summer after consumer psychology has already changed and become one of belt tightening instead of spending on more goods and services. Better get ready for a prolonged and painful recession which be deeper and longer than previous recessions because of Bush and Republicans in Congress economic policies. Policies such as; Financing an unnecessary war with huge deficits. Not restraining federal spending but letting it get further out of control through the use of earmarks to an extent never seen when Democrats were in control of the purse strings. Not addressing existing deficiencies in Social Security and Medicare entitlement programs but making them worse by adding a prescription drug benefit without providing a means to pay for it. Not pushing for energy conservation measures which would reduce the US reliance on imported oil which is now almost $100 a barrel. Bush and his so-called Republican supporters in Congress have totally betrayed the Republican Party's long held values of spending restraint and fiscal responsibility by spending tax payers money like drunken sailors and being more fiscally irresponsible than the Democrats have ever been. Their claims of cutting our taxes are a crock because what they don't acknowledge is the hidden tax they have foisted on taxpayers in the form of a dollar which has lost 50% of its value since 2002 leading to higher prices for oil and everything else the US imports. The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts together have not offset the tax increase we have seen as the dollar has plummeted in value. Unfortunately few Republicans make this connection otherwise we would throw these so-called Republicans out of office before they have a chance to totally destroy what still remains of TRUE REPUBLICAN economic values. With friends like Bush, Cheney and DeLay et al, we really don't need enemies.

Romney 39%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 19%
Giuliani 9%
Paul 2%

Romney 34
McCain 30
Rudy 18
Huckabee 12
Paul 3

Romney Wins, takes delegate lead. GOP race now simply Romney vs. McCain.

McCain: 29 percent
Giuliani: 24 percent
Romney: 24 percent
Huckabee: 11 percent

Storyline: McCain solidifies lead, gaining the "Big Mo" for Super Tuesday. Giuliani becomes the focal story for days as he wins second based on early ballots, but Romney wins election day ballots. Huckabee vows to soldier on.

Romney, 35%
McCain, 32%
Huckabee, 14%
Giuliani, 12%

Chris, I need one of your T-shirts to match the one I won last November (and wear VERY often) from Al Kamen for predicting the correct makeup of the current Congress. Now really, you don't want to have to compete with the free advertising for "In the Loop," do you?

Romney 38
McCain 35
Giullianni 16
"On Super Tuesday Republicans will choose the direction of their party"

Romney 34
McCain 28
Huckabee 20
Guiliani 10
Paul 7

Romney Rules, McCain Drols

GOP:
McCain 30.5
Romney: 29
Giuliani: 23.5
Hucakbee: 10
Paul: 7

DEM:
Clinton 49
Obama 35
Edwards 16

Romney 34%
McCain 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 14%
other 4%

Sorry- posted this on the wrong entry--

Romney 34
McCain 32
Hizzonor 18

Storyline- Romney/McCain head to "Plain Old Tuesday" in tight battle- funds low for McCain. Giuliani bows out, blames the New York Times for his disastrous campaign-heads to Arizona to cheer on "his" Giants in the Super Bowl.
Sub-Storyline- Hillary claims Victory! Wants delegates seated- "Its not my fault Obama ignored Florida! You can't win the general election without campaigning in Florida!"

McCain 33
Romney 31
Guiliani 15
Huckabee 15
Paul 6

Clinton 45
Obama 40
Edwards 15

McCain has a Sunshine Glow Going into Feb.5, Guiliani Looks Ghostly

Obama Isn't As Far Behind Hillary As She Thinks He Is

McCain 29
Romney 27
Giuliani 22

McCain: 34%
Romney: 31%
Guiliani: 14%
Huckabee: 14%
Paul: 4%

Guiliani out of race as Florida rains on his parade; nothing but sunshine for McCain as he scores another victory.

1. Mitt Romney: 35%
2. John McCain: 29%
3. Rudy Giuliani: 18%

McCain is unable to win closed Republican primary. Focus on the economy propels Romney to a solid victory and gives him momentum heading into February 5th.

Dems
Clinton 53
Obama 39
Edwards 8

Dem contest may actually matter... Clinton claims victory, may try to get the DNC to seat Delegates if Clinton's can't win without them.

Romney 30
McCain 28
Giuliani 24
Huckabee 14

Storyline: Exit polls show importance of economic issues helping Romney; Rudy stays alive by beating expectations but limps into Tuesday.

McCain: 37%
Romney: 35%
Giuliani: 14%
Huckabee: 12%
Paul: 4%

Giuliani's fall is McCain's gain. Despite Romney's close showing, McCain momentum builds. Obama gains nationally, positioning himself even stronger as a "change" candidate opposite McC and HRC.

McCain - 34%

Romney - 33%

Giuliani - 17%

Huckabee - 14%

McCain will dominate 2/5; Giuliani will drop out

McCain: 33
Romney: 33
Guiliani: 19

Storyline: Fla. Repubs. can't decide between the lesser of two evils as McCain edges Romney in a virtual tie. Guiliani expected to withdraw to avoid a loss in the Big Apple.

Clinton: 51
Obama: 30
Edwards: 17

Romney: 33.5%
McCain: 32%
Guliani: 16%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 3.5%

Romney: 36%
McCain: 32%
Giuliani: 19%
Huckabee: 9%
Ron Paul: 4%

Giuliani ONLY does well in early voting tally; Some Evangelical support shifts (away from Huckabee) toward Romney to raise him to top. Super Tuesday pits Romney vs. McCain as the two clear frontrunners.

McCain 34
Romney 31
Giuliani 16

Crist's organization helps McCain prove he can win without Independents, solidifies frontruner status going to Super Tuesday (as was overwhelmingly named by fix readers). Giuliani third place finish isn't enough to keep him going and his departure helps McCain by clearing the field in NY,NJ etc.

Romney: 35
McCain: 30
Giuliani: 15
Huckabee: 13
Paul: 6
Other: 1

Romney wins, heads into Super Tuesday with a wind at his back. McCain, again, fails to wins amongst Republicans. Giuliani, largely a media creation, never really had a chance.

For perspective, even if Giuliani manages to make it to 15% in Florida (questionable), he has spent well over $40 million to garner an average 5.29% of the vote in the first 7 states. Bottom line: Rudy Giuliani, not Romney, is the Steve Forbes of 2008.

Democrats:

Major surge in the last few days for Obama; Clinton fails to break 50%.

Clinton: 48
Obama: 38
Edwards: 14

McCain- 45%
Romney- 30%
Huckabee- 15%
Guiliani-10%

Rudy blames 9/11 for his primary loss. Hires Isaiah Thomas to find a winning strategy.

Romney 36.2%
McCain 32.5%
Giuliani 13.5%
Huckabee 12.7%
Paul 3.8%

Romney wins Florida with economic concerns swaying voters

1. McCain 31%
2. Romney 29%
3. Giuliani 22%
4. Huckabee 14%
5. Paul 4%

Close win for McCain makes him the Super Tuesday frontrunner. Will Giuliani drop out?

Romney 36 %
McCain 32 %
Huckabee 16 %
Giuliani 11 %

Romney, Florida´s comeback kid.

1. McCain 31%
2. Romney 29%
3. Giuliani 22%
4. Huckabee 14%
5. Paul 4%

Close win for McCain makes him the Super Tuesday frontrunner. Will Giuliani drop out?

Romney 29%

Guiliani 24%
MCain 24%

Mayor McCheese surge shocks the field and delivers a Big Mac attack!

Huck-a-bust!

McCain: 33%
Romney: 31%
Giuliani: 18%
Huckabee: 14%
Paul: 4%

-McCain Gives Another Boring Victory Speech;

-Romney Takes Another Silver;

-Giuliani Spends a Couple of Days with Judith contemplating his future before dropping out

-Pawlenty prepares to be Vice Presidential running mate.

McCain 36%
Romney 32%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 4%

Headline GOP: Does McCain's Win in Florida lock up the nomination?

Headline Dems: How does Kennedy's endorsement affect the race?

Romney 36%
McCain 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

Headline: "It's the Economy, Stupid!"

Romney 34
McCain 33
Giuliani 13
Huckabee 16
Paul 4

McCain 35%
Romney 26%
Giuliani 19%

I'm new to this m'larky living across the pond so to speak so I've no idea whether that'll be close. I've never followed the race for the White House before and I have to say it's fascinating. However, I do have a question about the Post's coverage and it's this: What happened to your columnist Des Moines? He was writing virtually every day leading up to the Iowa Caucus and not a word since. Did he get the chop for predicting a big win for HRC?

Your headline for tomorrow (if you were a tabloid in the UK) would be: "Not ruddi good enough" (though something may be lost in the translation).

Romney 36%
McCain 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

Headline: "It's the Economy, Stupid!"

Romney 36%
McCain 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 3%

Headline: "It's the Economy, Stupid!"

Romney 37%
McCain 33%
Guiliani 14%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%

Romney: 34
McCain: 32
Giuliani: 17

Headline: "Romney, Clinton Gain Momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Giuliani disappoints; will he endorse McCain?"

Rudy 29%
McCain 25%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 4%

Storyline for my post above: McCain finally wins a plurality of Republican voters, all candidates vow to fight on to Super Tuesday, including Giuliani, whose candidacy looks as good as over.

McCain 33
Romney 32
Guiliani 19
Huckabee 28
Paul 6

Guiliani not to move to the White House but considers a 5 bedroom Coral one in Boca.

McCain 33%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 18%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 5%

Story: McCain finally wins a closed primary and is extremely well-positioned for Super Tuesday. Giuliani's effectively done and Romney vows to fight on, looking to spend his time/money in delegate-rich Feb. 5th states.

McCain 35%
Romney 32%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 14%
Paul 4%

McCain----31
Romney----29
Giuliani--18
Huckabee--16
Paul-------6

McCain 35.4
Romney 31.8
Huckabee 14.9
Guiliani 13.3
Paul 4.6

McCain romps over Romney, Mayor of 9-11 stymied by 1-29, Huck positioned for veep.

Romney 37
McCain 33
Giuliani 21

Storyline: Romney's near victory over McCain with Giuliani's embarrassing third place showing, means that going into super tuesday the republican race has no clear frontrunner. However, the republican has narrowed to just two contenders. With Mccain still underperforming with registered republicans, and most primaries on super tuesday closed, can he make up the difference between now and then?

Giuliani 28%
Romney 27%
McCain 26%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 3%

"Giuliani Gets out from under the Guillotine. Huckabee Hemorrhages. Romney Requests Radio/TV Refunds. McCain's Moderate Maneuvering Misses Mark."

Alliteration, win me a T-shirt!

I realize I'm way out on the weeds predicting a Rudy win. But I want one and some non-poll data support it. People could remember why they picked him the most by far in 2007 national and Florida polls. Voters all want security and competent crisis management; they choose Rudy when they aren't distracted by other campaigns' hype.

The absentee ballots just might hold a treasure trove of votes for him. It makes sense. Abstentee ballots were cast when he was polling better.

I believe this primary's an open one, so Dem and independent voters can vote on Republican delegates rather than a Democratic beauty contest. That favors Rudy and McCain. BTW do pollsters poll only Republicans? I think the tendency to cross parties can really foul up an otherwise good poll and Rudy could benefit from effects difficult to measure. R's who vote today may well prefer Romney or McCain to Rudy. But I's are likely to prefer Rudy to others (even McCain, if the latest feud/tax proposal news takes root) and may not be polled where as D's who are polled are likely to hate Rudy but not 'lower' themselves to vote in an R primary.

McCain and Romney have been feuding lately. That often works to the detriment of the two guys fighting and to the benefit of the third place bystander (In 2004 that would be Dean v. Gebhardt benefitting Kerry in Iowa.) If 10% of voters react that way, and the remainder do what polls say, Rudy can win.

Rudy's tax plan makes him just enough of a "true conservative" in contrast to McCain. Advantage Rudy.

I want this outcome, I tell you, and it's not that terribly illogical.

Ooops, I need to correct mine to account for Ron Paul:

McCain 34%
Romney 33%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%

BTW, it's a shame that 5% in New Hampshire, 3% in South Carolina, and 1% in Florida are going to make McCain the presumptive nominee and effectively end the race for the GOP nomination. I guess size doesn't really matter after all, hunh?

http://commenterry.blogs.com

McCain 40%
Romney 32%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 4%

Straight Talk Express plows over everyone.

McCain - 36
Romney - 28
Giuliani - 18
Paul - 9
Huckabee - 8

Headline: Rudy's a Goner!

Romney 36%
McCain 34%
Huckabee 13%
Giuliani 12%

Media still calls is a Victory for McCain and Huckabee.

Romney 28
McCain 24
Rudy 22
Huck 18
Paul 8

Early voting propels Rudy to close third-place finish. Republican field completely wide open going into Super Tuesday.

McCain 36%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 3%

Crist, Martinez Put McCain over the top.

McCain - 35
Romney - 34
Huckabee - 13
Giuliani - 12
Other - 6

Storyline: A Virtual Tie for First & Second Place

Okay, here's mine:

McCain 35%
Romney 34%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 14%

McCain 36
Romney 36
Huckabee 13

Storyline - Too close to call, McCain and Romney decide to have a duel to determine the nomination, McCain kills Romney but goes to prison. Thompson gets back in the race.

Senator McCain 30.1
Governor Romney 30
Mayor Guiliani 18
Governor Huckabee 15
Rep. Paul 2

McCain Edges Romney; Rematch Set on TUESDAY, TUESDAY, TUESDAY--Monster Primary!
Guiliani Propelled By Early Balloting, Still Exits Early

McCain 37
Romney 34
Giuliani 15
Huckabee 10
Paul 4

McCain has momentum; RG expected to endorse McCain on Wednesday; Romney vows to continue his campaign.

McC 32%
WMR 30%
RG 18%
MDH 14%
RP 5%

Two man race continues into Super Tuesday;
RG expected to drop out and endorse McC.

The results will undoubtedly be:

McCain: 37%
Romney: 34%
Huckabee: 16%
Giuliani: 11%
Paul: 2%

Headline: McCain wins Squeaker, Media Celebrates

McCain 34
Romney 33
Giuilani 15
Huckabee 14
Paul 4

Headline: Veteran McCain Outduels Rival Romney
Subheading 1: For Crist's Sakes, Endorsements DO Count
Caption with Picture: MittMobile Heads West on (Expensive) Fumes

Romney 34%
McCain 33%
Guiliani 17%
Huckabee 16%

Headline: Romney squeaks by with a win. GOP contest between McCain and Romney remains wide open. Guiliani joins Fred Thompson in seeing if there is some way to make guest appearances on Law and Order.

McCain: 34%
Romney: 33%
Rudy: 15%
Huck: 13%

Storyline: Geezers & vets lift McCain. GOP cockfight continues.

Romney 32%
McCain 31%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 7%
Others (Tancredo Thompson et al) 4%

Headline... GOP Still a Tossup headed to Super Tuesday/Giuliani on Life Support dials 9-11

Who do you predict will win the Florida Republican Presidential Primary?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1645

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Who do you predict will win the Florida Democratic Presidential Primary?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1648

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McCain 34%
Romney 33%
Giuliani 18%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 5%

Story: Late endorsements by Crist and Martinez propel McCain to victory and cement his role as favorite of the Republican establishment; Giuliani drops out and endorses McCain.

McCain 37
Romney 32
Guiliani 13
Huckabee 12
Paul 6

Headline - McCain has McMentum into Supertuesday. Guiliani out

Dems-
Clinton - 51
Obama - 37
Edwards - 12

Headline - Clinton wins symbolic victory. Race even heading into Supertuesday.

Roger wins the greatest prize of all, the treasured Fix t-shirt, sought by all fans of the line.

Romney: 40%
McCain: 38%
Huckabee: 12%

Photo-Finish: Romney by a Well-Coiffed Nose!

Romney 31%
McCain 28%
Huckabee 23%

Romney wins and Huckabee exceeds expectations, republican race still wide open heading into Tsunami Tuesday.

Republicans:

35% John McCain
33% Mitt Romney
15% Mike Huckabee
14% Rudy Giuliani
3% Ron Paul

Democrats:

50% Hillary Clinton
41% Barack Obama
9% John Edwards

Storyline:

"McCain eeks out another win as Giuliani finishes fourth; Rudy may drop out before an embarrassing loss in New York next week. Hillary's win tarnished by stronger Obama showing than polls predicted, and by another tasteless comment from Bill.

Romney 36
McCain 31
Giuliani 13
Huckabee 14
Paul 5

Economy trumps all. Romney wins by a decent margin. Giuliani does as well as he ever does.

I grew up in Florida. I live in Montana now, so you can guess how I feel about my home state.

They'll vote for the most superficial image, every single time.

Romney 37
McCain 33
Huckabee 15
Giuliani 12
Paul 3

Giuliani out. Romney expected to win the most delegates on Feb 5, but no one knows for sure. Rumors of Huckabee throwing his support behind McCain, but this never materializes (at least not before Feb 5). Unusually high number of votes in Palm Beach County for Pat Buchanan.

Romney: 34.5
McCain: 31.6
Guiliani: 15.5
Huckabust:12.9
Paul: 5.5

Storyline: Romney has some weight after all. Guiliani rumors abound that he will back Romney in a surprise move.

Romney: 30%
McCain: 29%
Giuliani: 22%

Storyline: McCain / Romney to head into nasty Super Duper Tuesday battle; Rudy does better than expected with the help of early voters and absentees, but still decides to drop.

R:

Romney 32
McCain 31
Giuliani 18
Huckabee 16
Paul 3

D:
Clinton 52
Obama 36
Edwards 12

Romney 34.2
McCain 34.1
Rudy 22

Headline: Another late night in Florida -- race to close to call.

McCain 33
Romney 31
Giuliani 15

Storyline: McCain steams toward Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday is Romney's last stand. Rudy becomes a non-factor. Dems: Clinton's win goes just into double digits.

Romney 33
McCain 31
Huckabee 18
Giuliani 14
Paul 4

Floridians teach America that the more you get know Giuliani, the less you want to know him. Romney pulls out a squeaker to set up a chaotic Super Tuesday.

McCain 38
Romney 30
Guliani 9

Story line: Evangelicals vote for McCain (sensing he's only one who can win general election). Guiliani retreats to Everglades.

Alas, the Mighty Mighty Mittster (as wags call him up here in Boston) will not be the mightiest on this day... But Giuliani's get-out-the-send-'em-in-early-vote efforts will allow him to beat Huckabee. That's a victory of sorts, right? Hmmm... Time for the Huckster to start thinking about life as a VEEP to be.

McCain 33
Romney 28
Giuliani 18
Huckabee 16
Paul 5

Giuliani - 28
McCain - 26
Romney - 24
Huckabee - 18
Paul - 4

Romney 31.2
McCain 30.8
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 15
Paul 5

Race is too close to call as of press time with Romney holding slight lead. Republicans still unsure McCain's their man.

McCain: 34 percent
Romney: 32 percent
Giuliani: 13 percent
Huckabee: 13 percent
Paul: 5 percent

McCain has his day in the Sun. Tough decisions lie ahead for Romney campaign; An easier one for Giuliani

McCain - 37%
Romney - 33%
Guiliani - 13%
Huck - 13%
Paul - 4%

Storyline - Crist endorsement propels late deciders and Guilini supporters to McCain...McCain clear frontrunner. Is McCain considering Crist for the VP slot? Subplot - Crist better looking than Romney?

Romney 33.3%
McCain 33.2%
Huckabee 26.7%
Paul 19%
Giuliani 3%

Storyline: Hanging chads and James Baker. Supreme Court confused about who to support. Giuliani appeals to Alito and Scalia for "do-over" and the the whole thing drags until March.

Oh, and asteckler needs to repeat fourth grade and focus on percentages.

Size medium please!

McCain - 30%
Romney - 29%
Giuliani - 18%

Storyline: The race is too close to call and goes late into the night. McCain manages to sqeak it out against Romney and shows that he can win in a closed Republican primary - his position as the frontrunner is cemented, and it's the beginning of the end for Romney (although he shows no plans of dropping out anytime soon). Giuliani is out - people want a leader who is willing to fight everywhere rather than watch others do it.

Romney 32%
McCain 30%
Giuliani 25%

Romney scores mixed victory. Under rules, he captures all the delegates and no one can pooh-pooh his lead in that count. But Giuliani's big number was largely supplied by absentee voters who - polling showed -would haved voted for McCain if they had waited longer, or would have strongly had him as their second choice. The message is clear to the GOP leaders: if you want to win in November, you need to go with a moderate, and McCain (while less moderate than Rudy) is the best bet to win.

McCain 33
Romney 32
Guiliani 21
Huckabee 10
Paul 4

Romney 34%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 15%
Guiliani 12%

Romney clear front runner. Huckabee drops out endorses Romney who will pick him for VP. Huckabee leader going into 2012 race.

McCain 35
Romney 31
Giuliani 18
Huckabee 11
Paul 4

Storyline: McCain definitely front-runner now. War with Iran provisionally pencilled-in for May 2009.

Romney 36%
McCain- 34%
Giuliani- 13%
Huckabee- 10%

Romney eeks out a win to prolong an uncertain campaign into super tuesday. Independents find their way into the primary voting booths enough to keep McCain close.

McCain 35%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 20%

McCain no longer a GOPrisoner of War
Romney spends the gold but gets the silver
Giuliani gets a "Rude(y)" awakening;

Romney 33
McCain 30
Giuliani 16

Super Tuesday battle is set between Romney and McCain as Giuliani bows out.

Romney 32%
McCain 29%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 7%

Romney wins with business creds, McCain gains support from Republican base voters, Giuliani probably won't last past Super Tuesday, Huckabee having trouble with moderates

McCain 33%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 2%

Storyline: Quickly all-but-annointed as the nominee and flushed with vindication, McCain thinks big and outside the box and holds secret meetings with John Kerry to discuss the vice-presidency. When word leaks out, all hell breaks loose and the prospect of the ultimate pundit's fantasy, a brokered convention, fans the flames of the story and revives Romney all the way to Minnesota.

Giuliani 31%
Romney 26%
McCain 23%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 4%
Thompson (because of early votes / absentees) 2%

Storyline: "Giuliani's juggernaut prevails much to Romney's and McCain's chagrin; Meanwhile, the pollsters and pundits run to the unemployment office crying, screaming, and begging for mercy."

Romney - 37
McCain - 30
Huckabee - 14
Paul - 9
Guiliani - 8

Story line: It's the economy, stupid. Romney finally finds a winning message.

Big surprise: Ron Paul knocks Guiliani into 5th place. Again.

McCain 34
Romney 32
Huckabee 16
Giuliani 14

Clinton 49
Obama 35
Edwards 14

McCain wins without independents, but with old folks.

Clinton wishes she hadn't asked for FL delegates to be seated

romney 31
mccain 28
giuliani 25

giuliani's late to the party, but far from out of it with a solid 3rd place finish. super tuesday becomes a battle royale where anything could happen.

Giuliani 28%
Romney 26%
McCain 25%
Huckabee 15%
Paul 6%

Storyline:

America's Mayor upsets the polls and proves that the people of America aren't just sheep (by not ignorantly voting based on the media hype) but in fact care about the issues. Giuliani heads to Super Tuesday with 58 delegates and the momentum needed to win.

Romney -- 36%
McCain -- 33%
Huckabee -- 17%
Giuliani -- 11%

Storyline: Rudy's Florida strategy fails miserably, whispers begin that he'll pull out before Feb. 5.

R's

Romney: 35
McCain: 32
Rudy: 24

Storyline: Romney wins by a surprising amount. No one drops out after the race on the R side.

D's

Clinton: 50
Obama: 36
Edwards: 14

Storyline: Clinton wins by a lot in a race no one else was running. Media makes this a bigger deal than it is.

32-Romney
30-McCain
15-Huck

story: Huck delivers knock-out punch to Rudy. Full Romney recovery from early set-backs.

1/30: St Johns 73, Gtown 65

Romney 25%
McCain 20%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 1%
and ...
Gore 29%

Storyline: GOP stores primary ballots in Katherine Harris' condo, unwittingly mixing them with uncounted 2000 election ballots. US Supreme Court rules Jeb Bush the winner.

McCain 35
Romney 29
Giuliani 21

Headline: Habemus McCain - White smoke over Florida

Romney 36%
McCain 34%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 2%

Romney gives stump speeches in French, put over the top by surprisingly large vote from naturalized French retirees.

Romney 34%
McCain 31%
Guilliani 17%
Huckabee 12%
Paul 5%
Thompson 1% (from absentee ballots)

Completely spun headlines:

"Mormon's, His father, and now his wallet keep Romney in the race."

Of course, they'll never give him credit for winning anything...

Romney: 34%
McCain: 31%
Giuliani: 15%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 5%

Story: What fallout will Giuliani dropout have for Super Tuesday?

Romney: 38
McCain: 32
Huckabee: 14
Giuliani: 13
Paul: 3

Story Line: Voters throw off worries about church succession to worship Mitt

Headline: Mystery instruction lead pollworkers to allow independents to vote for McCain.

MCCAIN 31%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 19%
Giuliani 18%
Paul 2%

Giuliani denies ever saying that Florida was crucial, instead claims that he had always intended to stake his campaign on New York. McCain becomes presumtive leader.

CLINTON 42%
Obama 39%
Edwards 18%

Clinton embarrassed when, despite breaking the rules by semi-campaigning there, she BARELY beats a guy who didn't visit Florida (She nonetheless spins this as a plus because she "beat Obama by a whole three points!!!") The delegates end up counting at the convention because nobody wants to make Florida angry right before an election.

Romney: 28
McCain 25
Huckabee: 15

Huckabee pulls ahead of Guilliani, effectively ending Rudy's campaign. Romney upsets McCain and heads into super tuesday with momentum (unfortunately).

Romney 35.4%
McCain 35.1%
Giuliani 14.8%
Huckabee 10.5%
Paul 4.2%

Storyline: Judi (sorry...I mean Judith) throws a FIT when she realizes she'll never get to play with the WH China collection.

Sun-sentinel has a story about independents being allowed to vote for McCain. This is a violation of state election law. It is a closed primary, and party affiliation must be declared 29 days before the election. Romney independents were not given ballots, only McCain. Poll workers were quoted as saying "those are our instructions". Seems like Governor Crist and John McCain, not caring about the laws of our land or the state of Florida, are rigging this election. Can't wait for the investigation afterwards. I wonder why the WaPo isn't reporting on this election irregularity.

Romney 33
McCain 33
Guliani 15
Huckabee 10

Guliani over and out, Romeny wins in the most unconvincing way possible. McCain still the front runner.

McCain - 37%
Romney - 29%
Huckabee - 14%
Giuliani - 12%
Paul - 6%
Thompson - 2%

Storyline: "McCain glowing from Sunshine State victory, now big favorite to win nomination"

Clinton - 39%
Obama - 34%
Edwards - 9%

Storyline: "Obama nearly wins without even campaigning"

Romney: 40%
McCain: 25%
Giuliani: 20%

"Romney wins big in Florida with strong Republican support. Momentum shifts in his direction. Giuliani disappoints with a third place showing, but presses on to February 5th, where he'll attempt to build a delegate base in New York, California and New Jersey. Chris Cillizza's contest winners prove more accurate than polls once again."

Romney 31
McCain 29
Giuliani 20
Huckabee 15
Other 5

Storyline:
Giuliani hangs hopes on a big finish in NY after a disappointing third place finish. Romney and McCain are the top contenders moving into Super Tuesday. The race remains wide open.

McCain 45%
Romney 30%
Giuliani 25%
Story line: Rudy put all of his eggs in one basket and dropped the basket. Omelet, anyone?

McCain 36%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 12%

Giuliani devastated by fourth place finish, drops out of race. McCain wins big among veterans, but siphons off enough fiscal conservatives to beat Romney.

http://www.elephantbiz.com/2008/01/the_biz_predictions_florida.html

Republicans
McCain 38%
Romney 32
Giuliani 16

Story: "Although it was a hard fought race, there are no points for second place. Mitt Romney, who outspent the field by millions, comes away with no delegates. Giuliani sings his swan song."

JX
ElephantBiz.com

Romney 37%
McCain 31%
Rudy 9-11%

The real winner of course will be the Democratic Party.

McCain 34%
Romney 31%
Guiliani 19%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 6%

McCain 35%
Romney 33%
Huckabee 17%
Giuliani 13%

Giuliani drops out to avoid further embarrassment in NY, McCain proves he's not just viable in open primaries. Conservative right begins to galvanize behind Romney.

Romney 34
McCain 33
Huckabee 20
Guilini 12
Other 1
Guiliani Sunk; Romney-McCain battle heads into Super Tuesday Undecided

Cynic's Version: McCain wins Big

McCain: 37
Romney: 35
Huckabee: 13
Guiliani: 11
Paul: 4

McCain edges out Romney amongst Cubans and elderly; race is so close to deny McCain presumptive front-runner status vis-a-vis Romney. Guiliani drops out in devastating fourth place showing, suggests that the terrorists whom he defeated on 9-11 have made a comeback. Huckabee remains in the race till Super Tuesday despite third place finish.

ROMNEY 33%
McCain 32%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 12%
Paul 4%

McCain: 35
Romney: 34
Giuliani: 14
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 4

Storyline:
Still a very tight race between the front two, but McCain continues to win over conservative republicans and puts himself in good shape to do well in delegate-rich Super (Duper) Tuesday; Huckabee seriously considers whose VP he'd like to be and has Chuck Norris go after the other.

Alt Storyine:
CC and colleagues decide not to hold state-by-state predictions for next tuesday, as early results suggest it will take them the next 4 weeks to scroll through all of the data from today's predictions, including the recount necessitated by this being a Florida vote.

McCain 36
Romney 33
Guliani 16
Huck 11
Paul 4

The story is that "most likely to beat Dems" polls as the most determative factor, in Florida and beyond.

Romney 34
McCain 31
Giuliani 20
Huck 11
Paul 4

Storyline: Romney takes Florida, McCain still can't seem to win a closed Republican primary. Giuliani does better than expected (due to votes cast in advance?) but still faces pressure to abandon the race after a third place finish.

McCain 38%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 12%
Huckabee 12%

Headlines: John decks Mitt, Rudy on life support, Mike praying for them all

Gov. Crist and Sen. Martinez get it wrong. McCain too liberal for Floridians. Romney 38% McCain 35&

McCain: 34%
Romney: 30%
Giuliani: 17%

Giuliani finally calls it quits after a third-place finish in his firewall state.

McCain: 34.5
Romney: 34.2
Huckabee: 13
Giuliani: 12

After a late night, McCain declared the winner; Huckabee puts the final nail in Guiliani campaign's coffin.

Romney 33
McCain 28
Giuliani 19

Romney wins. McCain explodes. Giuliani concedes. Huckabee has the staple removed from his gut and heads with his family to the cracker barrel to relive the good ol' days.

Romney 34
McCain 32
Guiliani 20
Hucks 10
Paul 4

Oh, I forgot the story line in my previous post. Story is: "McCain benefits from Crist endorsement, but not enough. Rudy lives another day to fight on in New York and elsewhere on February 5."

romney 36
mccain 30
Rudy G 20

early voting helps rudy, but he's done, romney's money, jeb bush machine and ceo experience deliver the night for him, 2 man race in stupid tuesday next week. crashing of the mccain wave helps huckabee in southern states where mccain is elading/tied.

dems
hillary: does it matter, no one competed?
obama: how am i supposed to campaign when i can't visit the state, or run ads?
edwards: i'm still relevent, really. i had a haircut recently, anyone want to comment about that?

result: hillary claims win, democracy loses due to stupid dnc decision, frontloading, republican legislature, gov charlie crist, etc etc.

McCain: 30
Giuliani: 29
Romney: 26
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 3

Line #1 = Rudy surpasses all expectations. Gets to play on Super Tuesday.

Line #2 = McCain wins a "close(d)" one. Likely to win it all on Super Tuesday

Mac attack: 37%
Da Mitt: 33%
Mr. 9/11: 15%
Huckabee Huckabee Huckabee (more fun to say three times): 10%
Ron "I'm-so-far-to-the-right-I'm-coming-back-around-on-the-left" Paul: 5%

Storyline: Edwards is right, it's John McCain (and Edwards gets the most press he's had in two weeks). Mitt vows to keep fighting through super Tuesday. 9/11 bows out of the race.

McCain 34.5%
Romney 32.5%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 14%
Paul 3%

Huckabee does better than Giuliani in votes cast today, but Giuliani edges him out on the strength of early balloting. On-the-fence Rudy voters break for McCain as their candidate's chances fade, but many already locked in their vote for Giuliani. McCain wins on high turnout among older voters.

McCain 32
Romney 31.5
Giuliani 19

But we don't know all this until they count the abentee ballots.

Romney 35

McCain 31

Giuliani 18

Huckabee 16

Romney rallies the right in Florida victory.

Big story is Huckabee finishing in the 20's. His speech in Missouri gets great coverage, and it's a homerun. The gaggle of national reporters look to the South and figure out that Huckabee's has a clear advantage over the other two. McCain and Romney call him a tax and spend liberal, finally getting the two of them to agree on something. Somebody at the Post finally "fixes" the oversight in press coverage and asks one of these guys what he would do as president that is significantly different than Bush. Bill Clinton starts aiming at Bush and Cheney like he should have been doing all along.

ROMNEY: 38%

McCAIN: 35%

GULIANI: 22%

Storyline: Romney wins close victory. Super tuesday sets up a two man republican race. Guliani fear mongering master of 9/11 drops out.

CLINTON: 48%

OBAMA: 45%

Storyline: Obama stuns Clinton by almost upsetting her in a state once thought to be filled with a ground swell of Hillary supporters. Results bodes ill for the Clintons on super tuesday.

I predict:

McCain: 37
Romney: 35
Guiliani: 13
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 3

...and none of these quits the race tonight.

Obama 44%
Clinton 40%
Edwards 16%

As before, larger then expected turnout will nullify the poll.

McCain 31
Romney 30
Paul 13
Giuliani 12
Huckabee 12

With web stats like these, I see Ron Paul doing well, especially with the 19-29 year olds, MSM (main stream media) aside:
http://ronpaul.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=39

McCain 35%
Romney 32%
Guiliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%

Story: McCain edges out Romney; now favored for nomination. Guiliani to make a "major announcement" on Wednesday (will ultimately drop out and enorse McCain). Huckabee may not have funds to continue.

Giuliani 30
McCain 29
Romney 27

Lets not forget all the early voting in Florida where Giuliani most likely was passing out ballots way before the McCain "surge" and Romney's last minute media blitz.

Romney 37%
McCain 35%
Huckabee 13%
Guiliani 11%
Paul 4%

Humiliating end for Guiliani.

McCain 41%
Romney 30%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 11%
Ron Paul 5%
Other 1%

Storyline: Popular governor Crist's late endorsement carries McCain to convinving, larger-than-expected victory. McCain now considered somewhere between clear frontrunner and presumptive nominee, though Romney insists that he will carry Super Tuesday. Rush Limbaugh hospitalized with heart trouble.

Clinton 46%
Obama 43%
Edwards 11%

Storyline: In the delegate-less but still interesting race everyone forgot (lookin' at you, Cillizza), Clinton wins and declares she has regained the momentum. However, her smaller-than-expected margin suggests the toll of Obama's lopsided SC win and the Kennedy endorsement.

McCain 35
Romney 30
Giuliani 15
Huckahasbeen 12
Paul 8

Storyline: McCain benefits greatly from FL all-star endorsements, and upsets Romney. Romney, so as not to appear upset, swoons over another silver. Giuliani exits, McCain benefits from said exit, and runs away with nomination.

McCain 35%
Romney 31%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 13%

Huckabee drops out...Rudy's still thinking.

McCain 34.3
Romney 34.1
Huckabee 12
Guiliani 10

Republicans fear Islamofacism more than they fear the economy.

McCain: 35 percent
Giuliani: 28 percent
Romney: 24 percent
Huckabee: 11 percent
Paul: 2 percent

People are calling for change and McCain shows that he's the man to beat. Guiliani's strategy fails. He needs a miracle to move into the lead now. Romney makes some annoying reference to an olympic medal.

Romney 36%
McCain 34%
Huckabee 13%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 6%

A sad-faced Rudy abandons his bid, and the big stories will be women and in-person voters breaking for McCain, but conservatives and persons worried about the economy going for Mitt. Mitt suddenly becomes something of a front-runner.

McCain: 35%
Romney: 34%
Guiliani: 16%

Story: Late endorsements push McCain by Romney in a squeaker. The firewall collapses ... what's next for Rudy?

McCain: 34
Romney: 32
Huckabee: 15
Giulani: 13

Storyline: Huckabee and Giulani supporters continue to flee their candidates and get behind moderate McCain or conservative Romney, who are more likely to win. This helps Romney more than McCain, but not enough.

McCain 33%
Mittens 30%
Rudy 18%
Huck 9%
Paul 3%
Fred (!) 2%

I predict Sen Obama will win the largest number of delegates in Florida, with 0 delegates, closely followed by Sen Clinton with 0 delegates, and in a surprise upset Sen Edwards will tie for third with 0 delegates.

Man, that was easy.

McCain 34%
Romney 33%
Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 4%

Headline: McCain Momentum leaves Romney, Rush Reeling

Sub-Headlines: Giuliani drops out and endorses McCain; Fred Thompson endorses McCain; Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger endorses McCain

M. McCain 35
M. Romney 30
R. Giuliani 15
Hucka(has)been 12
Ron Paul 8

Storyline: with the benefit of two FL all-star endorsement, McCain upsets Romney. Romney, not to be left for dead, swoons about yet another silver medal. Bill Clinton shifts gears - ignores Hillary's 'wonderful' relationship with McCain - and immediately attempts to derail the Straight Talk Express.

Who do the makers of the Diebold machines prefer as the GOP nominee? That's who will win.

Romney: 37 %
McCain: 33 %
Giuliani: 15 %
Huckabee: 12 %
Paul: 3 %

McCain slides due to older ladies of Florida believing Mitt is a nice looking boy.

Romney 33
McCain 31
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 15

Romney win creates chaotic Feb. 5 sprint. Giuliani beats Huckabee on early voting, but drops out on Wednesday. Endorses McCain.

Mitt 34
Mac 32
Mayor 18
Mike 08

Writing on wall for Rev. Mike, sees his social conservative support sliding reluctantly to Romney (as much as they dont like him they really dont like Mac); the mayor leaves his signed baseballs for the press and then gets out... eventually endorses Mac. Mac still alive with impressive poll numbers in California, but its going to be a barn burner.

Clinton gives rally, but press pitches it as kinda sad, sorta like throwing yourself a surprise birthday party

Romney: 34
McCain: 31
Giuliani: 17
Huckabee: 12
Paul: 4
Other: 2

Story: McCain stays strong with veterans and moderates, but late-deciders focus on the economy and swing for Romney.

McCain 33
Romney 33
Giuliani 14
Huckabee 14
Paul 6

It's just going to be CLOSE. Either 1st/2nd or 3rd/4th is going to be so close we won't know the winner this time tomorrow. But when the smoke clears, McCain wins, Giuliani gets 3rd. The only remaining question is, will Rudy get a false sense of momentum and stay in only to get smoked on Super Tuesday in his homestate?

(Guess: No.)

McCain 30%
Romney 29%
Giuliani 17%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 5%

Headlines
"McCain edges Romney in hard fought Florida, Giuliani's Florida and Super Tuesday Strategy evaporates."

"senboo"

McCain 35%
Romney 25%
Huckabee 17%
Giuliani 17%

Storyline: McCain solidifies position as GOP frontrunner by winning (by a much larger number than expected) closed primary. Floridians decide they want the canidate that can beat Billary come November. Rudy's campain strategy exposed as a huge blunder (I'm a Large)

Romney- 39%
McCain- 30%
Guiliani- 17%

McCain 34
Romney 33
Guilani 14
Huckabee 13
Paul 9

My prediction is that the race goes well into the evening without a winner being "called"... Guilani pulls out but Huckabee stays in playing the "Edwards of the Republican Party"... Paul... well he's just Ron Paul.

Romney: 37%
McCain: 36%
Guiliani: 17%
Huckabee: 10%
Demand for The Fix t-shirts: 100%

Storyline: Romney wins with anti-McCain vote siphoned from Guiliani and Huckabee in the waning hours of the election. WP opens an online "The Fix" store selling t-shirts, coffee mugs, and a home version of the Fix for the whole family to play throughout the primary season.

McCain 34%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 12%

McCain consolidates position, Rudy poised to drop out.

McCain: 37%
Romney: 33%
Giuliani: 16%
Huckabee: 9%

Storyline: McCain edges out Romney in Florida; pragmatic Republican base helps him secure front runner status through a win in this closed primary. Giuliani faces tough questions from supporters after disappointing showing.

McCain 36
Romney 31
Huckabee 15
Giuliani 9
Paul 5

No way is Rudy bowing out, no matter how badly he is beaten. Story: He continues to distort reality and project himself as a powerful contender, taking his ego with him to Feb 5.

McCain - 82% Boring
Romney - 84% Boring
Huckabee - 91% Boring
Giuliani - 72% Boring
These Republicans are just very boring people - they call each other 'liberal' and wonder why their message is not resonating with the voters.
Ohg
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/01/29/boring-republicans-run-a-1994-campaign/

McCain 38
Romney 32
Huckabee 16
Guliani 14

Romney: 33%
McCain: 32%
Guiliani: 18%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 2%

Top Stories: McCain struggles to win conservatives, Guiliani near exiting the race