Why not - we can always hope right?

Obama 47%
Edwards 27%
Clinton 23%
Dodd 3%

McCain 31%
Huckabee 25%
Romney 24%
Guiliani 12%
Thompson 8%

Predictions: Obama takes a massive sweep of New Hampshire and Iowa to a stunning blowout in South Carolina. Following NH, he takes the cullinary workers union and gets Nevada in a cakewalk. HRC concedes and drops out. Edwards fights to super tuesday but only carries one or two states. The democrats and indpendents line up behind Obama for the General election.

McCain keeps rolling but meets heavy resistance in the south and among evangelicals in the form of Huckabee. Its a good fight until super tuesday, when McCain edges him out and gets the nomination. Voters in November are forced to choose between which candidate they actually think is the best - a departure from the past 2 decades of choosing the least-worst candidate.
Faith is restored in the democratic system, America's place in the world is restored, the planets align, dogs and cats get along and the rivers pour beer for six weeks a year.

Obama 32% of all votes cast.

NH Predictions:

Democrats:
Obama - 39%
Clinton - 27%
Edwards - 24%
Richardson - 6%
Others: 4%

Republicans:
McCain - 38%
Romney - 25%
Huckabee - 14%
Paul - 11%
Guiliani - 9%
Others - 3%

New Hampshire Predictions

Democrats:
Obama 42%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 6%

Republicans:
Romney 35%
McCain 32%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 7%
Thompson 3%

boko- thanks, yeah the AP report summarized the situation there & in some other podunk NH town. Funny, but irrelevant.

NH Predictions:

Democrats:
Obama - 39%
Clinton - 29%
Edwards - 20%
Richardson - 8%
Others: 4%

Republicans:
Romney - 33%
McCain - 31%
Paul - 11%
Huckabee - 11%
Guiliani - 10%
Others - 4%

bsimon, you may know this, but the population of Dixville Notch, NH is sth like 45 or 50 - men, women and children. Obama "won" with (I think) 7 votes.

My predictions

Democrats
Obama 40 %
Clinton 30 %
Edwards 20 %

Republicans
McCain 39 %
Romney 29 %
Huckabee 14 %

The google produced an AP recount of the Dixville Notch story:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5grwUADvRzUMaEoHj9bHMtdylvOLAD8U1LDH80

judgecrater writes
"FWIW, Obama just won Dixville Notch, NH. McCain won the R side but Obama had three more votes than McCain. HRC? Zero votes."

There's more to this story. Do tell, the background at least.

Democratic New Hampshire Primary - Prediction Time!

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1446
.
-------------------------------------

Republican New Hampshire Primary - Prediction Time!

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1445

.

My NH picks:

Republicans:
Romney 36%
McCain 30%
Giuliani 12%
Thompson 9%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 4%

Democrats:
Clinton 33%
Edwards 29%
Obama 29%
Richardson 9%

Dems

Obama 48%
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%
Richardson 4%

GOP

Romney 30%
McCain 29%
Huckabee 12%
Thompson 11%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 8%

Democrats:

Obama: 48%
Edwards 26%
Clinton: 22%

Republicans:
Romney: 38%
McCain: 32%
Guilani: 14%
Huckabee: 10%
Paul: 5%
Thompson: 1%

Looking ahead - If Clinton or Obama are elected, possible cabinet:
Chris Dodd - VP
Chuck Hagel - Chief of Staff
State - Hillary Clinton (if Obama President)/Joseph Biden (if Clinton elected)
Treasury/Healthcare policy - Michael Bloomberg
Atty General - John Edwards
UN - Bill Richardson
DoD - John McCain
Bi-partisan and all brilliant. What a govt it would be.

For the Dems:

Obama 34%
Clinton 31%
Edwards 25%
Richardson 7%

Story: Obama surge continues but Hillary isn't out - never underestimate the power of a political machine.

For the GOP:

McCain 35%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 10%
Thompson 8%
Guiliani 7%

Story: McCain rises from the ashes and Romney's going down in flames.

Democrats:
Obama 46%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 22%
Richardson 5%

Republicans:
McCain 36%
Romney 25%
Paul 13%
Huckabee 11%
Thompson 9%
Guiliani 7%

The Republican race remains as open as ever, although Guiliani sinks even further into obscurity. Thompson will hope for a boost in South Carolina where he has polled well, and McCain, Romney, and Huckabee will all be neck-and-neck to pick up a crucial win there. Similarly, the Democratic race does not see a lot of movement toward the exit door among the top three as Clinton hopes for redemption on Feb. 5 and Edwards makes a last-ditch attempt to place first in South Carolina.

NH predictions:

Democratic Side:

Obama - 38%
Clinton - 29%
Edwards - 21%
Richardson - 7%
Others - 5%

Republican Side:

McCain - 33%
Romney - 28%
Huckabee - 14%
Ron Paul - 11%
Giuliani - 9%
Thompson - 5%

Obama +20 AND next POTUS.

Need I say more.

Mistake on my part on Republican side:

Republican
McCain: 33
Romney: 29
Huckbee: 16
Paul: 12
Guliani: 8
Thomson: 2

N.H predictions

Democrats
Obama: 42
Clinton: 28
Edward: 24
Richardson: 4
Kucinch: 2

Republican
McCain: 35
Romney: 33
Huckbee: 17
Thomson: 11
Guliani: 9

For New Hampshre D's-

Obama 43%
Clinton 27%
Edwards 26%
Richardson 4%

For the R's
McCain 35%
Romney 27%
Huckabee 16%
Paul 10%
Guiliani 9%
Thompson 3%

Still say Obama/Napolitano is best

Dems:
Obama 43%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 18%
Richardson 6%

Reps:

McCain 32%
Romney 26%
Paul 12%
Huck 12%
Guiliani 10%

NH pick

Obama - 45
Clinton - 26
Edwards - 23
Others - 6

FWIW, Obama just won Dixville Notch, NH. McCain won the R side but Obama had three more votes than McCain. HRC? Zero votes.

Chris, thanks for recognizing my accurate predition on the GOP side of the Iowa Caucuses. By the way, it was "His prediction ..".

Now for my New Hampshire predictions:

GOP:

McCain 30%
Romney 28%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 12%
Paul 11%
Thompson 4
Hunter 1%

Dems:

Obama 42%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 22%
Richardson 5%
Kucinich 2%

http://commenterry.blogs.com

i made no predictions but i would love to know whether i can BUY a fix t-shirt.

As a Canadian watching the U.S. media, my take on the race will be that Obama and McCain take Super Tuesday, and Clinton leaves shortly afterwards.

Events in Pakistan and perhaps the Taiwan Strait will put a spotlight on Obama's and McCain's ability to manage international crises.

We shall see:

http://mungobah.blogspot.com/2008/01/predictions-for-new-hampshire-super.html

Mungo

Obama: 42
Clinton: 33
Edwards: 19
Richardson: 6

McCain: 32
Romney: 28
Giuliani: 16
Huckabee: 14
Paul: 6
Thompson: 4

Story lines:

Obamamania keeps on rolling.

The Straight Talk Express is on the road again.

As for the Republicans:

McCain - 36%
Romney - 24%
Huckabee - 12%
Paul - 11%
Giuliani - 10%
Thompson - 5%
others - 2%

I think Obama has momentum and will break 40%, I also think that Hillary Clinton is fading fast.

Obama - 44%
Clinton - 29%
Edwards - 18%
Richardson - 5%
others - 4%

My predictions:

Obama: 38%
Clinton: 33%
Edwards: 22%
Richardson: 6%
Others: 1%

mgmcca,

In a political arena, trouncing means that a come from nowhere upstart knocks out the world champion in the first round. And barely breaks a sweat.

Trounced means the second-ranked contender also beats the world champion by unanimous decision. It might be a one point or a quarter point unanimous decision but the champion did not win second, she got third place.

In politics a trouncing is what happens in N.H. if you are knocked out and people conclude the former champion has a glass jaw, is fifteen years older than the new champion and has ran out of time to train for the tomorrow's match and all bets are on the new champ that now looks like a rock superstar than can do no wrong, say no wrong.

In politics you lose that aura of invincivility and you become yesterday's news.

A trouncing is what we are witnessing happen to Hillary whom in less than a week already looks like a has-been out of touch with the times.

NH:

Obama 42
Edwards 28
Clinton 26

McCain 32
Romney 27
Huck 18

but then again what do I know

An Obama/Dodd ticket gives the Dems nothing politically.

I think an Obama candidacy gives Democrats the chance to run the board in November to a level not seen since Johnson's victory - to that end he needs to be looking to someone like Kathleen Sebelius in Kansas; alternatively Phil Bredeson from Tennessee.

Imagine a Democrat winning Kansas! Obama could, especially given it's his mother's home state: Sebelius could put a lock on it.

He also needs a Governor on the ticket and someone from a key area like the mid west, not another verbose Senator with no experience of taking decisions about anything.

Way to go PaulB!

And, I agree, an Obama/Dodd 08 ticket would be great.

As to percentages, looks like the same on the Dem side - Obama, Edwards, then Clinton - and since I watered down my SLOG posting before, I'm going to go on a limb and say Obama 38, Edwards 30, Clinton 29.

I predict Ron Paul will increase his vote percentage from 10 percent to higher - probably around 16 to 18 percent - in NH. But it's a tumultuous race, so not sure the rank order of GOPers, probably McCain will get 2nd or 1st, and that's all I know other than Romney placing third or fourth.

SPOKEN LIKE A TRUE REPUBLCIAN (clinton supporter0. If you don't win, skew the results so you come out smelling like roses. Much like the gop who always have their own alternate poll's, ought and paid for.

the results are in. Clinton may still have a chance. I can't fault her for staying in. I can fault her for going negative in a losing campaign, if she does lose. I hope she does what's best for the country, rather than just herself and her closets. We are a nation of many. the gop (clinton included) forgets this

What Presidential Candidate would you vote for today?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1455

.

Chris -- glad to actually see more accurate numbers in this post. But, my comment applies more generally:

I guess Significant Figures really do matter. I'll be sure to go back in time and tell my high-school Chemistry teacher. I preface this with the fact that I am a huge nerd.

I was looking at the Democratic Iowa Caucus results today. The headline has been "Clinton in a disappointing 3rd place" and "Obama trounces rivals." But then I actually looked at the state delegate numbers, and they seemed to be closer than they should according to the percentage totals out there. And they are, because of rounding. Here's what is being published:

Iowa State Delagates Won
Obama 940 38%
Edwards 744 30%
Clinton 737 29%
Richardson 53 2%
Biden 23 1%
Uncommitted 3 0%
Dodd 1 0%
Gravel 0 0%
Kucinich 0 0%

Nothing about that is false. However, here are the totals if you allow for more decimal places:

Obama 940 37.5849660%
Edwards 744 29.7481008%
Clinton 737 29.4682127%
Richardson 53 2.1191523%
Biden 23 0.9196321%
Uncommitted 3 0.1199520%
Dodd 1 0.0399840%
Gravel 0 0.0000000%
Kucinich 0 0.0000000%

So, Clinton came in third after Edwards with a difference of 0.2798880% -- that sounds a whole lot smaller than 1%. Virtually tied, I'd venture to say.
And Obama beat Edwards by 7.8368653% (granted, this does round to 8%) and beat Clinton by 8.1167533% (but this rounds to 8% too, not 9%)

None of this changes the outcome of the votes of course, but I think that Clinton is getting the short-shrift because of the "she was soundly in 3rd place" story that's driving the votes in the following primaries. I think it was more like, Obama wins by 8% and Edwards and Clinton tied for second.

And, from a purely mathematical standpoint, I think it disingenuous to publish percentages without at least 1 decimal place here, because if you don't round the intial results, then get the difference between Edwards and Clinton, and THEN round -- you get 0%. There's clearly SOME difference, not no difference. This should have been published as [Obama 37.6%][Edwards 29.7%][Clinton 29.5%]. AND if you're representing the whole dataset, then you should publish to 2 decimal places to register a difference between "Uncommitted" and Dodd in the percentages. (Which was truly sad for Sen. Dodd, by the way)

Just my dorky two cents.

Obama-Dodd 08 :)

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