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Friday Senate Line: Republican Recruits?

For months, it appeared as though Senate Republicans would seriously contest only one Democratic-held seat this November as a combination of fund-raising struggles and failed recruitment took seat after seat off the table.

Of late, the horizon has brightened -- slightly -- for Republicans as candidates (or potential candidates) have emerged in New Jersey and South Dakota, two states where the Democratic incumbents seem potentially vulnerable.

In New Jersey, developer Anne Evans Estabrook (R) has put her money where her mouth is -- donating $1.6 million to her campaign against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D), who polling suggests has worn thin on New Jersey voters. And, in South Dakota, former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby (R), a potential self funder in his own right, continues to mull a race against Sen. Tim Johnson (D), with a decision expected as soon as next week. South Dakota gave President Bush 60 percent of its vote in 2004 and is one of the most Republican states in the country currently represented by a Democrat.

Neither race makes the Line this month, however. Why? Because while both Estabrook and Kirby have the personal wealth to make their candidacies interesting, both also have considerable flaws that complicate Senate Republicans' ability to tout them as A-list candidates.

Estabrook is VERY green as a candidate. Need evidence? Watch this -- and pay particular attention to the Estabrook's "answer" on gun control. Um, not good.

Kirby has lost two high-profile Republican gubernatorial primaries; he came up short in 1994 against Gov. Bill Janklow and in 2002 lost a bitter three-way race to Gov. Mike Rounds. Those defeats may well tarnish Kirby's ability to unite Republicans this time around. And, while Kirby ponders, Democrats are making sure he knows just what awaits him if he becomes a candidate.

While the jury is still very much out on both Kirby and Estabrook, the fact that the National Republican Senatorial Committee is recruiting these self-funders in potentially competitive states is a sign that they recognize what they are up against in this election. Senate Democrats have a massive financial edge and many more potential targets (23 Republican seats are up in November compared to just 12 for Democrats).

The best way for the NRSC to combat these problems is to try to put a few more Democratic seats in play. Will it work?

The Line is below. As always, the number one race is the most likely to switch parties in November. The Line is intended as a conversation starter, not a conversation closer, so use the comments section below to offer your thoughts.

To the Line!

10. Kentucky: Attorney Andrew Horne's decision to bow out of the Democratic primary race makes wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford's path to the nomination easier. Lunsford, who has run unsuccessfully for governor twice, is clearly the choice of the state and national party but still must get by first-time candidate Greg Fischer. Waiting for Lunsford is Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) -- one of the best funded and smartest politicians in the Senate. Democrats argue that Lunsford's past races have not negatively impacted how he is viewed in the state; Republicans retort that Lunsford is badly damaged goods. Democrats are on the rise in Kentucky, having just taken back the governor's mansion last year, but McConnell is a very tough candidate to beat. (Previous ranking: 10)

9. Oregon: This race is the most difficult for us to analyze. National Democrats continue to insist that Sen. Gordon Smith (R) is vulnerable because of the Democratic nature of the state and the fact, they argue, that the Republican incumbent hasn't made much of an impression with voters. Democrats also seem to believe that state Rep. Jeff Merkley is an A-list candidate but he continues -- to our mind -- to struggle to get positive press clips. (Witness the recent hubbub over Merkley's decision to raise money when the state legislature was in session.). Merkley still has to be considered the front-runner in the primary race with activist Steve Novick but the underdog doesn't seem likely to go away. (Previous ranking: 8)

8. Maine: It's hard to see how the race between Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Rep. Tom Allen (D) doesn't wind up being close. Maine is a Democratic-leaning state in an election year that seems to favor Democrats at the national level -- and particularly in the Northeast. But, this race is far tougher for Democrats than it appears on paper -- a fact The Fix was reminded of earlier this week when glancing at a copy of "Equality", the magazine of the Human Rights Campaign. "Senate Ally: Maine's Susan Collins" read a headline on the cover; an adoring two-page q & a was inside. Collins has spent years establishing her moderate credentials, making it a tough task for Allen to cast her as a parrot of President Bush. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Alaska: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich's decision to form an exploratory committee -- a precursor to a widely expected bid against Sen. Ted Stevens (R) -- gives Democrats a real opportunity to win a seat in which they have no business even being competitive. Begich is a very well known commodity in the state thanks to his two terms as mayor of the biggest city in the Last Frontier and his famous last name. (Begich's father, Nick, was an Alaska congressman who disappeared in a plane crash in the early 1970s.) Add to that the ongoing lobbying scandal that has torn the Republican party to shreds and even ensnared the heretofore revered "Uncle Ted." Alaska is a Republican state through and through and in a presidential year should act like it. But, Begich's candidacy and Stevens's problems means this is a race to watch. (Previous ranking: 9)

6. Minnesota : Comedian Al Franken (D) continues to impress, winning the endorsement of the state's Service Employees International Union earlier this week -- a decision that further consolidates the support of organized labor behind him heading into the party convention in June. Roughly 1,400 Democratic delegates will pick between Franken, attorney Mike Ciresi and professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer; all three candidates have pledged to abide by the results of the convention and Franken has emerged as the clear favorite. Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is well-funded and savvy but Republicans who believe they will caricature Franken as a Hollywood liberal running as a lark would do well to take the Democrat more seriously. (Previous ranking: 5)

5. Louisiana: Talk to a handful of Republican strategists who are closely involved with Senate races and they generally grant that this election cycle is going to be very tough for their side. And yet, to a person, they express total confidence in their chances of ousting Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) in November. Why? The argument is as much about the demographics of the state as it is about the Republican candidate -- state Treasurer John Kennedy. Following Hurricane Katrina, Republicans argue, large numbers of black voters in the New Orleans area left the state, never to return. Without that reliably Democratic vote, Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) won without a runoff in 2007 -- a major boost for Republicans' hopes against Landrieu who has never won with more than 52 percent of the vote. (Previous ranking: 6)

4. Colorado: The big news out of this race over the past month -- for political junkies -- is that Dick Wadhams appears set to take over former Rep. Bob Schaffer's (R) campaign. Wadhams has experienced tremendous highs (his service as manager for South Dakota Sen. John Thune's upset win over Democrat Tom Daschle in 2004) and tremendous lows (his stewardship of Virginia Sen. George Allen's disastrous re-election bid in 2006) in recent election cycles. Wadhams, a Colorado native, has been nearly perfect in the campaigns with which he has been associated in his home state. Can he keep the streak alive in Schaffer's up hill fight against Rep. Mark Udall (D)? Expect the phrase "Boulder liberal" to become a staple of Wadhams' vocabulary between now and November. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. New Hampshire: Remember last month when we disregarded an American Research Group poll that showed Sen. John Sununu (R) leading former governor Jeanne Shaheen (D) by 11 points? Take a look at a new survey from the University of New Hampshire that puts Shaheen at 55 percent and Sununu at 37 percent. Um, yeah. It's clear that unless something drastic changes in this race, Sununu is in serious trouble of losing his re-election bid. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. New Mexico: The race between Reps. Steve Pearce (R) and Heather Wilson (R) is the early front-runner for primary campaign of the cycle. Both candidates have real electoral bases, both will raise plenty of money and neither is afraid of throwing a punch. Watch for this race to heat up considerably between now and the June 3 primary. While The Fix is fascinated with the prospects for the primary, the contest is less appetizing for Republican strategists. That's because Rep. Tom Udall (D) has cleared out his side of the race and starts the general election against either Wilson or Pearce with a clear advantage. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Virginia: Mike Henry, former deputy campaign manager for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign, just inked a deal to manage former governor Mark Warner's 2012/2016 bid for president. What's that? Oops. Henry is managing Warner's sure-thing bid for the Senate seat being vacated by John Warner (R) this fall. Riiiiiight. (Previous ranking: 1)

By Chris Cillizza |  February 29, 2008; 7:00 AM ET  | Category:  The Line
Previous: Wag the Blog Redux: Impact of the McCain Story? | Next: Clinton's "3 a.m. Phone Call" Ad


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i just had to comment on the line after the 2 recruits you touted for the gop - estabrook and kirby, both dropped out in the weeks since. the head to heads for mccain don't too bad but the recruiting problems for the gop suggest that 08 is haping up as a very blue year.

Posted by: stpaulsage | March 11, 2008 11:11 PM

A bunch to comment on here:

NH- Sununu is done, he basically eked out an exceptionally narrow win in 2002 with the best tailwind GOP candidates will ever see. The tragedy for him is that he has done everything he is supposed to do and is a decent Senator. But the state has changed too much, take note Judd Gregg.

ME- Collins is facing her stiffest challenge, and without HRC to drive GOP turnout... well, see note regarding NH and doing what she is supposed to. She's pretty entrenched, so this one is a toss up for now.

MN- Coleman is an accidental Senator. Minnesotans will remedy that accident, who the agent of that remedy is, is of little relevance, but believing that Al Franken is the best Dem candidate for GOP retention is delusional, Ciresi is a rich attorney, and Franken is campaigning as the second coming of Wellstone (a good place to be in MN).

SD- Can't be had. Johnson is well liked and beat the best the SD GOP had to offer in 2002, (Thune). If Rounds had chosen to make the race, I suspect Johnson would have stepped aside for Herseth, and its still a retain.

LA- The demos are bad for Mary Landrieu, but she won in 2002 in the worst imaginable environment, and the GOP has a weak candidate.

CO-NM- both are the same basic dynamics, although the GOP is fielding 2 strong candidates in NM (which in some ways is worse than not having one). Both lean takeover.

AK-I'd love to think the Dems can take this one. In a different cycle, with less pickup opportunities, the Dems would focus on this. Maybe it will help that they won't.

Posted by: leuchtman | March 3, 2008 10:58 AM

I hate to tell you this, but Bruce Lundsford is not just damaged goods in KY, he is actively despised by a great many KY democrats. From his disgraceful behavior with Vencor, to his financial support of KY republicans Mitch McConnell and Anne Northrup, he is not viewed by most KY democrats as a democrat at all but rather as a slimy bastard who will do anything to line his own pockets. He has no credibility in KY whatsoever.

The DNCC is badly mistaken on this one.

This is our best chance to unseat Mitch McConnell, and they're blowing it.

Posted by: sswayze | March 2, 2008 11:42 PM

Allen may have lost the Senate election but only by a slim margin -- that says a lot for both Allen and Webb, but to me it suggests that voters weren't so hard-up about Webb from the start.

Posted by: bava84 | March 1, 2008 3:01 AM

Big unions always lay their bets on the biggest fundraiser, so Franken's union endorsements are not so impressive. That Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is seriously considered in the running is the big story here. He came from nowhere and hardly any money to make this a three way race. The other candidates have the money and fame, but Jack has something that cuts through: the Message. Pay attention. He is very well liked. He very well could come away with the endorsement and be the candidate. If so, Norm Coleman will really be in trouble.

Posted by: pbsrroz | March 1, 2008 12:25 AM

Why do my comments not get posted? I tried posting a comment on this thread about 8 hours ago - it still has not gone up. I am not a first-time poster, I've been posting here for over a year. It says that my comment is being held by admin for review or whatever. How long can that possibly take? What is the problem?

Posted by: buckidean | February 29, 2008 8:43 PM

The Journal Gazette of Indianna reports that President Bush's aide, Tim Goeglein, admitted to plagiarism.

A Fort Wayne native and White House official acknowledged Friday he copied large portions of an essay that appeared in a Dartmouth College publication and presented them as his own in a News-Sentinel column.

"It is true," Tim Goeglein wrote to The Journal Gazette in an email. "I am entirely at fault. It was wrong of me. There are no excuses."

Tim Goeglein has been referred to by The New York Times as "Bush's eyes and ears on the right" and "Mr. Rove's legman on the right." His job is to "make sure conservatives are happy, in the loop and getting their best ideas before the president and turned into laws."

figures.

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 3:49 PM

'I so much want to talk about keeping downer cattle out of the food chain. '

Yeah really. I don't even eat or buy beef anymore.. the thought of eating somethig so sick it can't stand up, something that's dying, is nauseating. And as you can see, they intend to keep on letting it happen. So if the prospect of eating something that has, say, running sores, parasites, open wounds, or other ugly manifestations bothers you, I would advise you to avoid it too, because this administration will take industry positions over public health every day.

'Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer told Congress yesterday that he would not endorse an outright ban on "downer" cows entering the food supply or back stiffer penalties for regulatory violations by meat-processing plants in the wake of the largest beef recall in the nation's history.'

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 3:43 PM

Will the loser of the New Mexico Republican primary be able to run for his/her current seat? Or will New Mexico's congressional delegation be composed of three freshmen?

Posted by: peters04 | February 29, 2008 3:21 PM

No GOP nominees that have a chance in WA for Senate. But we do have an incumbent Republican in WA-8 for the House who is not even raising enough funds and has had massive Democratic turnout in his formerly GOP district - in fact, the number of people signed up in the 8th to join the State Legislative District Democrat groups that comprise the party is up by a factor of many thousands (yes, not a misprint).

So, expect a few sacrificial lambs offered up by the GOP in WA, but the only races that will be on the boards are in the House. Probably go 7-2 for that.

Posted by: WillSeattle | February 29, 2008 2:49 PM

Think CC is about exactly right with The Line this go-around. I'd like to see which races are just outside of the top 10 though. North Carolina, the open seat in Mississippi, Texas, even South Carolina or Oklahoma could get interesting in the right circumstances. There's a lot more churn now than there was for this cohort six years ago.

Also, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the sacrificial lamb Virginia Republicans offer up will be bomb-throwing Bob Marshall, not dumb Jim Gilmore. Four silent b's in one sentence!

Furthermore, I remain nervous about Tim Johnson. Don't ask me why, just am.

Posted by: novamatt | February 29, 2008 2:20 PM

Illinois, the standard for recklessness is much tougher for the Plaintiff than the standard for negligence, but there is no precision here. Plaintiffs argue for a lower bar, Defendants argue for a higher one.
-----------------------------
I miss "Bench Conference", the late lamented deceased law blog at WaPo. I so much want to talk about keeping downer cattle out of the food chain. See

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/28/AR2008022804117.html?wpisrc=newsletter&wpisrc=newsletter&wpisrc=newsletter

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 1:57 PM

No comment about Murray Sabrin in that New Jersey seat? Is the primary over there?

Posted by: lajdawg | February 29, 2008 1:56 PM

Mitch McConnell (KY) and Lindsey Graham (SC) are up for reelection this year, and both are rumored to be anti-gay closet cases in the tradition of Larry Craig, Mark Foley, David Dreier, Ed Shrock, et al.

So, the Kentucky and South Carolina races might move closer to the number one position on "The Line" if and when the truth is exposed in October!

Posted by: harlemboy | February 29, 2008 12:59 PM

Interestingly, "Republican recruits" rhymes with "closeted fruits."

Posted by: Spectator2 | February 29, 2008 12:39 PM

Republicans have two big strikes against them now. They have more seats to lose, meaning their party money will be spread thin, and they have much less money than the Democrats.

A third big strike (three and you're out, right?) may be if Obama is the Democratic nominee. He has momentum going. He has brought into the primary electorate two groups that otherwise have poor turnout history, youth and blacks. If he is the nominee and continues to capture these groups, it may trigger a strong surge for Democrats running for Congress.

I wouldn't be so bold as to predict it at this stage of the game, but Obama may have coattails, something we haven't heard much about in these modern days where self-centered presidential candidates offer little help to congressional candidates.

If this happens, look for the Democrats to pick up not only the Republican seats that are considered vulnerable today, but to score some upsets. A filibuster-proof Democratic Senate majority, which I admit is a longshot, may be more of a possibility than we realize.

Posted by: AlaninMissoula | February 29, 2008 12:24 PM

Why is there so much emphasis in the VA system on separate hospitals? Doesn't it make sense for the system to consist primarily of high quality health insurance, with just a few big hospitals/rehab centers of their own plus a number of small centers within existing hospitals specializing in military-related conditions?

Posted by: illinois2 | February 29, 2008 12:16 PM

Noriega has no interest listening to alternatives to a VA hospital - we tried - the actual out of pocket expense in real cash to the veteran by the government is now $200.00 - this is travel pay of $144.00 plus lodging. It is now cheaper to send us to a local specialist.

People do not understand that doctors in training in Harlingen are going to be just as bad as doctors in training in San Antonio. This is why I oppose a VA Hospital

Last July I was approved for carpal tunnel surgery in my left hand. For three months it took me complaints to the lawyers in Washington before anyone would do anything about the scheduling nurse's refusal to take phone calls or return phones. He simply would not schedule my surgery. No one knows why.

I finally get scheduled. I go to SA for the presurgery testing - blood, chest x-ray and ekg. The doctor in training doing the intake cancels my surgery because the doctor in training addressing my primary pulmonary hypertension was too important to talk to the doctor in training (Resident) the pulmonary doctor is a Fellow so he is higher up - I was sitting there when the Fellow told the Resident - I needed to make an appointment two months out and he would then send a note to the resident.

This week my surgery was cancelled again -at a time the Inspector General is openly investigating the matter. Why? - On Monday afternoon I received a notice to be in SA today for presurgery clearance. On Tuesday by chance I had an appointment at 8:45 a.m. and on Wednesday at noon. So on Tuesday - knowing the system I decided to get my blood work, ekg and chest x-ray done - could not do it because the scheduling nurse choose not to input the requests into the computer.

I went to see the scheduling nurse and I was told that I would have to come back on Friday - I said I am here now - and tomorrow. It would be an additional 10 hours round-trip - the doctors in training are there on Wednesday - I will wait and be the last presurgery screening - the doctors in training will not even consider accomodating a Brownsville veteran - what was the big deal - I was there - see me last.

The scheduling nurse cancelled my surgery. I then learn that he reschedules me so that I have to spend 4 days in San Antonio - with having to pay for my own lodging for one day and food for a family member for 4 days. This is a day surgery.

He had me coming in on Sunday so that presurgery screening could begin monday morning. On Monday night I would have to pay for my own hotel and food for myself and a family member (you need a driver otherwise they will cancel the surgery)

Then On Tueday night they would pay for the hotel for myself and family member, but not food for the family member. The surgery would be on Wednesday.

The anger by veterans is not because of a lack of care in the Valley - things are getting better - the problem is the contempt the hospital administrator in San Antonio has for veterans.

Can anyone possibly defend what I just described. Cornyn has ignored every letter I have ever sent him. He is a joke. Noriega is no more interested in the real facts.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes

Posted by: bobbywc | February 29, 2008 12:11 PM

"If you think Obama's church is strange, this is what Hagee, who McCain has been supporting, beleives:"

============

LOL> I know all about Hagee. I often catch him on TV just to laugh and marvel. McCain made a series mistake taking his endorsement. Catholics will be pissed. More Independents lost.


Concerning Rev Jeremiah Wright, I find his Afric-centrism and close ties to Farrakhan extremely troubling, esp considering how close the bind is between he and Barack.

It does not sit well with the CHANGE that Barack speaks of.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 11:54 AM

"know", not "no" - phone call while blogging -
dreaded interruption of work.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 11:49 AM

Bobby, do you even think any of these pols no about the services in Harlingen? They just keep talking about "driving to SA".

Have you written to any of them? Noriega? Seems he might listen!

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 11:48 AM

Thanks for the clarification Mark.

So if Exxon knew that Hazelwood was a recovering alcoholic, or that he had been previously caught drinking on duty, one could argue that it was reckless for him to be allowed to captain a supertanker without drug/alcohol testing? Or even that all captains should face such testing because of the gravity of their decisions?

I suppose the classic "what did they [Exxon] know and when did they know it" comes into play big time here.

My understanding of the situation is that the compensatory damages haven't been nearly enough to deal with clean-up, damage to fisheries, health effects, etc. of the spill. How were they set? Is there any legal requirement that these damages be sufficient to "make it right"? If the plaitiffs' loss was greater than originally estimated, is there any mechanism for increasing compensatory damages once the true scope of the loss is clear?

(Sorry for the interrogation... it's pretty cool to be able to ask these questions of people who know much more about it than me)

Posted by: illinois2 | February 29, 2008 11:47 AM

Dick Wadhams would be very wise to continue the "Boulder liberal" meme for Colorado Democrat Senate candidate Mark Udall. It is not only a descriptor mainstream media & other liberal commentators repeat, but one Udall's campaign has embraced.

From http://schaffervudall.blogspot.com (with sources linked & documented) -

The Mark Udall is Not a Moderate Scoreboard
On an ongoing basis, Schaffer v Udall tallies mentions of Rep. Mark Udall in the liberal blogosphere and mainstream media to provide readers a fair and thorough accounting of where the Democratic Senate candidate fits on the political spectrum. Comments by blogs, pundits, and politicians of a conservative persuasion are excluded from the tally.

The most current results show Rep. Udall identified as:

Extremist 2
Reliably left wing 11
Liberal 30
Moderate 0
Conservative (chuckle)

Updated February 18, 2008

Added note: Mark Udall called Boulder his "touchstone" and his staff claims "Boulder Liberal tag will not hurt"

Posted by: bendegrow | February 29, 2008 11:45 AM

As a South TExas Veteran who uses the VA system - I oppose a VA hospital and any effort to continue with the current model for delivery of healthcare. The new model being using at the Harlingen clinc surpasses the VA hospital. Why would I give that up for lessor care. Cornyn, Obama, and Clinton do not use the system so they are not qualified to speak to the system.

Here are the facts. The VA DOES NOT USE DOCTORS - THEY USE DOCTORS IN TRAINING. Unless you are going for some advanced critical care you will only be seen by a doctor in training.

After more than a year of being seen by one doctor in training after another for problems with my arms and legs - this week was I told I have significant muscle atrophy in my arms and legs. One year of 6 visits and nothing - nothing - because they are doctors in training - no clinical experience.

Compare to the new Harlingen clinic. 3 weeks ago I went in for an emergency appoinment (walk-in) I was seen by the chief doctor. I am service connected for colitis. I was experiencing rectal bleeding. He immediately sent me to the social worker to make arraigements for teh VA to pay for me to see a real specialist locally.

I was seen by the real specialist - he scheduled an emergency colonoscopy which was delayed for a week because of an infection in the colon.

The colonoscopy revealed the colitis has spread to the rectum and the development of colonic avms. Both of these were missed just months ago by the doctors in training at the VA.

Two days later with 102.5 fever I was seen by my general practitioner on an emergency basis. She ordered a stomach x-ray to insure my colon did not have a puncture and blood work. Within an hour we had the results - I had a bad infection.

I ask - which type would each of you choose. Cornyn in wrong - Noriega needs to get on board with the new model of delivery for healthcare -

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes

Posted by: bobbywc | February 29, 2008 11:45 AM

Very funny, drindl. The Congress and the Prez are exempted from most of our employment laws. This is one reason that diddling clerks and interns continues - the other reason being the personal failings of the diddlers.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 11:45 AM

That should read, 'Hagee, whose support McCain has been courting,'

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 11:42 AM

Watching Adams is like watching a high school sophomore at a debate match.

More energy than IQ, little sense or consistency, no interest in opposing views, lack of logic and reflection.

I'm embarrassed for MSNBC every time he's on. I'm flummoxed that he is general manager of MSNBC....well, now that I think about it...

maybe it does explain a lot.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 11:40 AM

If you think Obama's church is strange, this is what Hagee, who McCain has been supporting, beleives:

'Nothing can or will be done by Christians to save Israel's Jews from this disaster, for all of the Christians will have been removed from this world three and a half years prior to the beginning of this 42-month period of tribulation. (The total period of seven years is interpreted as the fulfillment of the seventieth week of Daniel [Dan. 9:27].)

In order for most of today's Christians to escape physical death, two-thirds of the Jews in Israel must perish, soon. This is the grim prophetic trade-off that fundamentalists rarely discuss publicly, but which is the central motivation in the movement's support for Israel. It should be clear why they believe that Israel must be defended at all costs by the West. If Israel were militarily removed from history prior to the Rapture, then the strongest case for Christians' imminent escape from death would have to be abandoned. This would mean the indefinite delay of the Rapture.'

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 11:39 AM

As a Conservative Republican, I am still hoping the Club For Growth recruits a great candidate in Alaska vs. Stevens. I hope they beat him in a primary. I'm confident that LeDoux will beat Young in the House primary, and keep that seat as a true fiscal conservative. McCain & Okla. sen. Coburn need to spend a bit of time in Alaska campaigning for LeDoux & whoever R's recruit for Stevens. I really wish they would both be beaten in a primary, as they both support funds to nowhere. Alaska is the state the Club for Growth needs to make a statement on in the primary season, find a good challenger to Stevens & spend, spend & spend to win on both these primary races!

As for the races, I think Sununu is in better shape with McCain as the R nominee than anyone could have expected him to be. However, he is in for a very tight race. I think Maine, Ky & Oregon will stay with the incumbents this cycle, as R's will keep em. Coleman vs. whoever will be tight in Minn., and I see Tim Pawlenty's approval rating dropping a bit, so it will be a true toss up race. Colorodo stays R as Shaffer excites the fiscal & socially conservative bases & beats the boulder liberal who is Mark Udall. Again, with McCain the R nominee, NM looks a bit easier to keep than it did. However, this race will still be incredibly difficult for the R nominee. At one time, it looked as if though Wilson had the best shot at victory in the general. Now, though, it looks like Stevan Pearce will be the better nominee. McCain looks like the clean cut candidate and Wilson has scandal written all over her with the attorney firing scandal, and D's could point to a connection with Alberto Gonzales...not where you wanna be running for statewide office in NM. Pearce, on the other hand, has no scandals as I know of, has been strong on ethics & a staunch supporter of keeping taxes & gov't. low. Pearce may run surprisingly well in NM in November, if he can win the nomination. Wilson, though, has her own supporters & appeals to centrists well. Tom Udall is a formidable & well funded D, and has the support of gov. Bill Richardson. Udall, Pearce or Wilson could well be the next US senator of New Mexico. It is a very intruiging & great race. Louisiana, New Jersey & South Dakota are all great Republican pick-up opportunities. In New Jersey, Estabrooks looks very well funded & has a great shot to win the race. In La., I'm still hoping Sec. of State Jay Dardene jumps into the race. He's very popular and could, I believe, beat Kenneddy in a primary and win the general race in November against Leindrieu.

Va. is done. Mark Warner is on a roll to the senate seat.

Posted by: bryant_flier2006 | February 29, 2008 11:36 AM

What bothers you about it, wpost?

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 11:34 AM

Kentucky voters are well-informed and have both a short- and long term memory. For a small taste of what McConnell can use in his arsenal should Mr. Lunsford be the candidate, take a look here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hH1Hn7rAqc

The Democrats will put forth a Kentuckian they can be proud of.

Posted by: vericunning | February 29, 2008 11:32 AM

'As a practical matter, any safety related job, like master of a tanker, or airline pilot, or school bus driver, can support periodic drug/alcohol testing. '

Would you call being President a safety-related job?

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 11:31 AM

"This is a good piece by Rosenthall about why Russert's Farkhan question to Obama was disengenious and malicious"

++++++++++++++++++

Well, I'm a strong Obama supporter but I have great unease about the church Obama attends and the pastor who leads it. It is a legitimate area of concern and if Barack gets the nomination, it is a huge gold mine for Ari's 527.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 11:30 AM

This would be hilarious -- I mean, this is the best they can do? if there weren't so many Americans suckered into falling for this crap:

On MSNBC's Live With Dan Abrams last night, Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) said it was okay to "question" Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) patriotism because he doesn't regularly wear an American flag lapel pin. Kingston claimed that "everybody" in politics "wears them." Asked by Abrams if he was wearing one, Kingston had to admit he wasn't, saying, "I will wear one and I have worn one." Kingston then feigned ignorance about the irony between his criticism of Obama and his own lack of a lapel pin.

Abrams also referenced a Time photo of Obama "with his hands down" during the National Anthem. He echoed a right-wing smear, however, by stating that it was taken during the Pledge of Allegiance.

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 11:29 AM

re: new Zogby poll showing Obama lead in Texas.

Remember it was Zogby who published that wildly inaccurate poll showing Obama way ahead in CA.

Zogby's polls are considered highly unreliable in the polling biz. Their interactive polls tap a self-selected group of respondents who sign up for surveys online and then respond to specific questions via email.

Cliff Zukin, a political science professor and polling expert at Rutgers University, suggests that journalists should generally be wary of any Zogby interactive poll.

"The Zogby stuff, on scientific grounds, is quite questionable," says Zukin. "Online, Internet, opt-in polling, where people volunteer to be respondents, doesn't really have a basis in scientific validity. There are two kinds of samples in the world. There are probability samples, and there are non-probability samples."

The Zogby interactive polls, says Zukin, clearly fall into the latter camp. "With probability samples, when everybody has a known chance of being selected, you can make pretty valid inferences about the population from which it is drawn," says Zukin. "You can't do that at all with self-selected surveys. That's a problem."

Another problem with Internet-based polling, says Zukin, is that, in general, Web and email-based surveys tend to overvalue the opinions of young people. A group that is notoriously lousy at showing up to actually vote.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 11:24 AM

Illinois - As a practical matter, any safety related job, like master of a tanker, or airline pilot, or school bus driver, can support periodic drug/alcohol testing. I would not hesitate to advise, as part of an accommodation, that the alcoholic or coke addict agree to periodic testing, in writing.

Failure to obtain that agreement from the employee could be met with removing him from safety related duty, at the very least.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 11:24 AM

This is a good piece by Rosenthall about why Russert's Farkhan question to Obama was disengenious and malicious:

'But the Farrakhan question was not just stupid. It was ugly, insensitive and disrespectful to Jews. It demonstrated Russert's obliviousness to the dynamite he was playing with: Jewish fears about anti-Semitism in the wake of the Holocaust. There are still thousands of Holocaust survivors among us and hundreds of thousands of their children and grandchildren.

It also was disrespectful to African-Americans, suggesting that every African-American can be held responsible for the actions or statements of every other (this is, of course, the essence of bigotry). It played on the racism of segments of the American public. And it poured fuel on the difficult, but improving, relations between African-Americans and Jews.

This is serious stuff, deadly stuff. But for Russert it was just an opportunity to pump up his ratings. Russert knows Obama does not share Farrakhan's views. (Would a young African-American have made it to the Senate from Illinois if he had?) Furthermore, Obama is a Christian and has no connection to Farrakhan.

Asking Obama to repudiate him is like asking me if I reject the praise the late Meir Kahane once bestowed upon me on the Larry King show. Why would I? Anyone who knows me understands that Kahane and I had nothing in common except our religion. Farrakhan and Obama don't even have that. End of story.'

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/29/the_lying_despicable_campaign/

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 11:24 AM

The largest punitive damages award approved by he Supremes was 10-1. People need to remember the purpose of punitives -to punish. if a company is worth 20 billion - how does a punitive award of 20 million punish? it does not - punitives must be tied to the net worth of the company or person.

The republicans love these con jobs. Class Actions is another example. Two weeks ago I went to a national chain for an oil change. Based on previous oil changes and what my manual says my truck takes 5 quarts with the filter. This company charged me for 7. I complained. They would only give me credit for one quart. IN teh process a women standing there got her bill for 7 quarts - she had a 4 cylinder - I told her to go get her manual - she also - such as I had a previous bill from Walmart - yes her limit was also 5 quarts.

This company is making millions by over charging for oil. The Republicans would oppose a class action because the benefit to me might be $5.00 while the lawyers could make millions. I do not care - why should this company be allowed to cheat people to the tune of millions because in a lawsuit lawyers could make millions? The Republicans answer it is wrong because I only make $5.00 - I do not care - I want the theft stopped.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes

Posted by: bobbywc | February 29, 2008 11:21 AM

re: noriega in Tx:

Clinton, Obama undercut Rick Noriega in the Valley
-------------
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega on a recent tour of South Texas criticized incumbent Republican John Cornyn for the fact there is no Veterans Administration hospital in South Texas.

Cornyn's aides said the senator has a bill to build one. Noriega said he supports legislation carried by South Texas congressmen. Cornyn's aides countered by saying the legislation Noriega supports is the House companion to the bill Cornyn is sponsoring in the Senate.

Today, Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama undercut Noriega's ability to attack Cornyn on the issue in the fall.

Obama surrogate, U.S. Sen. John Kerry (who also supports Noriega), signed on as a co-sponsor of the Cornyn legislation, according to the Rio Grande Guardian. Several hours later, Clinton also signed on as a co-sponsor.

Now -- no matter if it is Clinton or Obama who wins the Democratic presidential nomination -- Noriega will have trouble attacking Cornyn over legislation that his party's nominee is supporting.

Noriega, a state legislator and lieutenant colonel in the Texas Army National Guard, is in a contest for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination with Corpus Christi school teacher Ray McMurrey and perennial candidates Rhett Smith and Gene Kelly.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 11:18 AM

Illinois, plaintiffs receive the exemplaries/punitives. I have known cases where Plaintiffs have used exemplaries to set up charitable foundations, but they are under no compulsion to share.

drindl, negligence = carelessness. No punitive damages are available for ordinary carelessness. We only punish for intentional torts, or torts where the intent can be imputed because the carelessness was reckless, as when a driver takes a dare to drive blindfolded.

There are states where drunk driving does not cross the bar from careless to reckless, as I recall, unless the driver was over the state's alcohol/blood % limitation for DWI.
A "How drunk?" question, of sorts.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 11:15 AM

Thanks wpost. After reading that passage, I'm still not entirely clear on whether an employer can require special sobriety monitoring for a particular employee due to known alcoholism. Would it be treating a recovering alcoholic "more harshly" than their fellow employees to monitor the alcoholic based solely on his/her condition (assuming no prior misconduct)?

Specifically, if Exxon hired Hazelwood knowing that he was an alcoholic, could they make some kind of direct monitoring of his sobriety a condition of his employment without doing that for other employees? Could they do this even if they had no knowledge that he had started drinking again?

Posted by: illinois2 | February 29, 2008 11:12 AM

Exemplary damages = Intentional or wilful misconduct.

Is negligence considered 'willful misconduct'? Seems like it ought to be.

Yeah, wpost, I heard about fleisher's 527, and I know who's funding it so yes, it will be ugly. I'm just hoping that somehow, we won't get fooled again. fool me once..

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 11:08 AM

wpost has correctly stated the situation, Illinois.

More thoughts - Appellate Courts are hostile to punitive damages and set "Rule-of-thumb" max. ratios. TX used to be 14-1 max. The 5th Circuit used to be 3-1 max.

During the S&L bust in the late 80s, an S&L building in Austin was foreclosed upon. The foreclosing mortgagee, without notice to the lessees in the building, locked them out, took their property, and auctioned it off. This violated several statutes.

I represented a health studio that had been
disrupted in this way. The mortgagee would not settle. I won a jury trial for actual and exemplary damages based on conversion [civil theft], an intentional harm. I won a 13-1 verdict because the jury took my warning not to go higher than 14-1 too seriously. The Trial Judge, wife of a Fifth Circuit Judge, remitted my verdict to 3-1! I think that was due to pillow talk, frankly.

Did not the Circuit remit the trial award to 3-1? I think if the Supremes do a further remittitur below 3-1 it will be a bad precedent, after all these years of 3-1
Rule-of-Thumb in the Fed Cts.

There are probably pegs for the Supremes to deny punitives here - there almost always are - but further remittitur would also be a bad signal, 7th A. wise. Appellate Courts NEVER do additures.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 11:04 AM

A person who is an alcoholic is an individual with a disability under the ADA and may be entitled to consideration of reasonable accommodation, if s/he is qualified to perform the essential functions of a job. However, an employer may discipline, discharge or deny employment to a person who is alcoholic whose use of alcohol adversely affects job performance or conduct to the extent that s/he is not qualified to perform the essential functions of a job or who drinks alcohol during work hours.

The ADA does not interfere with employers' programs to combat the use of drugs and alcohol in the workplace. The Act specifically provides that employers may: (1) prohibit the use of drugs and alcohol in the workplace; (2) require that employees not be under the influence of alcohol or drugs in the workplace; and (3) require that employees who illegally use drugs or alcohol meet the same qualification and performance standards applied to other employees. For example, an employer can require that employees not come to work or return from lunch under the influence of alcohol (or drugs used illegally). An employer could also prohibit an employee from bringing alcohol to work or to work-related functions, or drinking during working hours.

Employees who have alcoholism and do not perform up to the standards required by their employers can be discharged from their employment. Under the ADA the employer is allowed to terminate and not accommodate an employee with alcoholism, if the employee does not perform up to the same standards as all other employees, even if the behavior is related to the alcoholism. If an employee is often late or does not show up for work because of alcoholism, an employer may take direct action based on the conduct. However, an employer would violate the ADA if s/he treated an employee with alcoholism more harshly than s/he treated other employees for the same misconduct. An employer must make reasonable accommodations for employees who have alcoholism, such as making a flexible schedule that allows the employee to attend AA meetings.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 10:50 AM

"Noriega could easily defeat Cornyn"

=============

Wow, that would be quite a coup.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 10:46 AM

M in A: Thanks for the explanation of punitive vs. compensatory damages. I've never quite known how the difference is defined. Do plaintiffs receive punitive damages? How would they be distributed in this case?

A question on ADA and recovering alcoholics: Typically I think of ADA in terms of providing reasonable accommodation for disabilities. I'm guessing that the reasons that people would be unlikely to hire a recovering alcoholic are that if they start drinking again 1) their absenteeism might rise/productivity would drop, and/or 2) they are more likely to make critical errors in performing their jobs. So doesn't part of the cost of "reasonable accommodation" for a recovering alcoholic come in the form of monitoring them to ensure that critical errors (due to drunkenness) won't happen? For example, can the employer of the recovering alcoholic bus driver you mentioned require breathalysers as a condition of employment because errors can endanger lives? Is it considered a violation of the recovering alcoholic's rights to do this?

Posted by: illinois2 | February 29, 2008 10:45 AM

Why is Texas not listed? Yes it is an uphill battle for Noriega - but there are factors in play which help him. If Obama wins the nomination blacks who normally do not vote will vote. This along with independents could push Noriega over the top.

Noriega was quick, unlike Hillary, to denounce the racists comments of Adelfa Callejo. The blacks will remember this and so too will Obama.

With the blacks registering to vcte in large numbers, Obama campaigning for Noriega and the possibility that South Texas may actually vote, Noriega could easily defeat Cornyn.

South Texas is still out. Noriega is known as a DINOLINO - Democrat in Name Only and Latino in Name only. The Valley has demonstrated over and over again it will not turn out for a DINOLINO.

Obama continues to ignore the people of the Valley. He has finally agreed to come to Brownsville. He will not agree to a rally or to meet with the people. He has agreed to meet only with the self annointed leadership (which are hated by the people)

Anyone not willing to ask for my vote is not entitled to my vote. Noriega and Obama have made it clear they do not need the Valley, and this could cost both of them.

Bobby Wightman-Cervantes

Posted by: bobbywc | February 29, 2008 10:34 AM

AndyR3: I have thought Dole will not be back from the time of her MTP appearance months ago, which I commented about at the time. I am not sure if she has decided to run or not, but I don't think she will be in the Senate for another term.

Posted by: lylepink | February 29, 2008 10:25 AM

"I think th rightwingers are going to find it a lot harder to swiftboat Obama than Kerry or Clinton, because people actually like Obama, it's hard to portray him as somehow 'elite.' So all they have left is racism and fear, and I think that most Americans, at heart, are better than this."

=============

Don't bet on it.
Ari Fleischer is setting up a multi-million dollar 527 that will make swift-boating seem like tossing pebbles from a dinghy.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 10:24 AM

Norm Coleman is definitely vulnerable in Minnesota. Thanks for at least mentioning Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer as one of the candidates for the DFL endorsement. That's progress, though I don't know what evidence there is to support Al Franken as the "clear favorite." From where I sit, there is an increasing groundswell for a senator in the Paul Wellstone seat who will not just be a dependable left-of-center vote, but an actual leader and progressive visionary. And if you listen to the debates, that's Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer.

Posted by: jkrueger | February 29, 2008 10:23 AM

Forty years ago, a former UT football hero beat up a black man in an Austin bar for having the effrontery to drink at the hero's favorite watering hole. My partner took that case and tried it to an Austin jury on $123 medical bills and one day of lost work.

He recovered a judgment for actual damages, and punitives at 14x actuals, the highest ratio an appellate court had ever allowed.

The assault was not mere negligence. It was intentional. Exemplaries-punitives applied. The argument my partner made: "You are going to set the price for beating another man for no reason other than his skin color. Set that price so that Austin will not see this happen again." Exemplary damages = Intentional or wilful misconduct.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 10:16 AM

Thanks, Mark-- since the article seemed to indicate that there was proof that the company knew he was drinking, I thought that should prove complicity.

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 10:15 AM

The Tennessee gop walks it back..

'On Wednesday night, the party removed both the photo and the reference of "Hussein" from the statement after Tennessee Sen. Lamar Alexander called to express his belief that using them had become a distraction, Tennessee GOP Communications Director Bill Hobbs said.

The news release now includes a clarification that reads, "This release originally referenced a photo of Sen. Obama and incorrectly termed it to be 'Muslim' garb. It is, in fact, Somali tribal garb, hence, we have deleted the photo.'

I think th rightwingers are going to find it a lot harder to swiftboat Obama than Kerry or Clinton, because people actually like Obama, it's hard to portray him as somehow 'elite.' So all they have left is racism and fear, and I think that most Americans, at heart, are better than this.

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 10:12 AM

drindl writes that Fisher said

"Despite years of evidence that Hazelwood was drinking again,..."

If that was before the jury, then there is a basis for the punitive damage award.
------------------------------------
I am asking you to not confuse actual damages, which may include pain and suffering in a proper case, with punitive damages. Actual damages were paid, and paid according to the jury award of $800M.
Punitive damages are not based on the reasonable care standard. They are based on a standard of wanton disregard, not by the servant alone, but by the master as well.

Andy, if single hull tankers were lawful, it could not have been wanton disregard to use them. I can see that it could have been negligent to use them.

Optimyst, compassion and recompense are at the heart of actual damages. Punitive damages are not reserved for big losses, they are reserved for wanton misconduct.

The misconduct here cannot be vicarious -
the upper management had to have some complicity.

Again, if they knew or should have known that this guy was drinking again, I think it should stick.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 10:08 AM

Mark,

I'd like to think justice is something more than technical evaluation of the cases and statutes. When an event is so huge and egregious as the Valdez disaster, both to the lives and livelihoods of the people of Prince William Sound, as well as the environmental aspects, for the Supreme Court to let Exxon off without so much as this wrist slap of a judgment strikes me as something other than justice.

Let them word their decision narrowly to keep its impact on precedent limited. But let us see justice for the victims. Let the law live. Let it breathe.

Posted by: optimyst | February 29, 2008 9:53 AM

Can somebody make heads or tails of this for me? I don't understand it. Can McCain have known what he was doing here? Did he understand who Hagee was before he courted him? I mean, did he really intend to jettison the Catholics in order to get the evangelical vote? This guy Hagee is one of the most deeply lunatic out there. I mean calling the Church the "Great Wh*re'? Mercy... I'm not even relgious and I can barely type that.

"HOUSTON -- The president of the Catholic League today blasted Sen. John McCain for accepting the endorsement of Texas evangelicalist John Hagee, calling the controversial pastor a bigot who has "waged an unrelenting war against the Catholic Church."

Hagee, who is known for his crusading support of Israel, backed McCain's presidential bid Wednesday, standing next to the senator at a hotel in San Antonio and calling McCain "a man of principle."

But Catholic League President Bill Donohue said in a statement today that Hagee has written extensively in negative ways about the Catholic Church, "calling it 'The Great Wh*re,' an 'apostate church,' the 'anti-Christ,' and a 'false cult system.'"

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 9:52 AM

Another race to keep an eye on is NC. Dole's approval ratings are at 45% and staying there. Once the Democrats figure out there nominee, then the race will start for real. I think with a large Black turnout from Obama's candidancy and with the right candidate (Like Kay Hagan) Dole might be the suprise knockoff of the season.

Posted by: AndyR3 | February 29, 2008 9:52 AM

Mark,

"Fisher replied that Exxon had a "paper" policy but did not follow it. Despite years of evidence that Hazelwood was drinking again, Fisher said, Exxon kept him in place, "putting a drunken master in charge of a supertanker."

I don't at the moment know what the 'evidence' against Hazelwood was, but if it is convincing, the company is surely guilty of negligence on a massive scale. And that is why there should be punitive damages -- to warn other companies that certain behaviors are intolerable.

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 9:47 AM

BTW, the Exxon Valdez was a single lined hull tanker.

Posted by: AndyR3 | February 29, 2008 9:36 AM

Thanks Uck I didn't realize that.

Mark, you know more about the legal side then I do, but I have no doubt that Exxon's "highest ranking officials [were] in on the recklessness."

They knew for example that by double lining the hulls of super tankers you drastically reduce the risk of a massive oil spill, BUT they didn't require it because it meant lost cargo space and higher shipping costs. Double lining is required now by law I beleive, but if they knowingly didn't change their policies that is negligence, and they deserve to pay the people of Alaska for that neglegence.

Posted by: AndyR3 | February 29, 2008 9:34 AM

"This is not an easy call."
=============================

"...Exxon had not learned a lesson from the disaster; [the captain] was fired, and "everybody else . . . further up the chain of command who allowed this to happen received bonuses and raises."

Fisher closed: "What you have today are 32,000 plaintiffs standing before this court, each of whom have received only $15,000 for having their lives and livelihood destroyed...."
---------
Keeping a known drunk on as captain seems reckless enough.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 9:32 AM

Let me add that ADA prohibits the refusal to hire an alcoholic who is in recovery. Suppose a bus driver for a private school, an alcoholic in recovery, gets drunk one morning and causes the death of a dozen school kids.

Actual damages attach both to the driver and the employer. But punitives could not be imputed to the employer unless the employer knew or should have known that the driver had fallen off the wagon.

Does that not make sense to you? Reparations are based on negligent acts [carelessness], but punitive damages are based on knowing recklessness.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 9:30 AM

AndyR3, that's not correct. God forbid, if Crazy Uncle John wins in November, Napolitano is required by law to appoint a Republican to fill-out the term (like in WY recently).

Doesn't matter though...getting Obama to the Oval Office is much more important then getting a 60th seat (although that would be epic).

Posted by: uckeleg | February 29, 2008 9:21 AM

The legal argument is about exemplary damages, not compensatory or actual damages. Exxon did substantially pay for the cleanup.

Exemplary damages are punitive in nature and for a corporation to be held to that standard of willful, wanton, and reckless behavior [NOT mere negligence] its highest ranking officials must be in on the recklessness.

This is not an easy call.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 9:18 AM

That Kirby Story is bad. If it is true then he doesn't have a chance.

You know a 60 seat majority really isn't out of the realm of possibility. Not to mention lets say the GOP gets really lucky and McCain polls out a miracle and beats Obama next fall. Then his seat is now vacated and would be filled by a democrat (Thank you Governor Napolitano). That would almost guarantee a Democratic Dominated Congress. That is a win-win for us Dems.

Also I think Idaho should be on the list at ten. I know Larry Craig isn't running but the Dems have a better chance of taking that seat then beating McConnell.

Posted by: AndyR3 | February 29, 2008 9:15 AM

Gosh, I would LOVE for the GOP to dump some of their scarce funds into New Jersey again. If Kean's little boy couldn't pull it off, there's no way this back-bencher will...although I do agree with the previous posters that I wish Lautenberg would just retire. He's lackluster at best, and Jersey does have a deep bench (primarily Bob Andrews) who would be much better.

Interesting comparisons are shaping up to 2006 though:

This cycle's Santorum: Sununu
This cycle's Burns: Stevens
This cycle's Chafee: Collins (hopefully! CC is wrong on this--Chafee was an actual moderate. Collins is a "moderate" like McCain is a "straight-talker" ie) a bunch of bull)

I'm intrigued by Alaska this cycle. I think Stevens and Young are both in deep trouble, and there was great enthusiasm for Obama in the state. While it is ruby red typically, the state has a fierce independent/libertarian streak which makes me wonder if Obama can carry the state.

Posted by: uckeleg | February 29, 2008 9:14 AM

Yes, half the Supremes are outdoing themselves in Dickensian meanness.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 9:08 AM

Dionne actually has a decent column this morning (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/28/AR2008022803316.html?hpid=opinionsbox1) that features this statement: "Yes, Obama gets his crowds swooning. So did Reagan. It's laughable to hear conservatives talk darkly about a "cult of personality" around Obama. The Reaganites, after all, have lobbied to name every airport, school, library, road, bridge, government building and lamppost after the Gipper. When it comes to personality cults, the right wing knows what it's talking about."

Got that right. I remember the sobbing chants of "Ron Ron! Ron Ron! Ron Ron!" and that ridiculous nonsense about carving his image into Mt. Rushmore.

And conservatives from the LDAH party (Largest Deficit in American History, formerly known as the GOP) are now starting to whine about the fact that BHO wants to spend money on college educations for Americans. Ooooh, that's MUCH worse than pouring it into a big hole in the desert thousands of miles away!

Posted by: judgeccrater | February 29, 2008 9:05 AM

Justice Roberts feels such compassion for Exxon Mobil...

"Yesterday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on how much money ExxonMobil should be forced to pay as damages for its Exxon Valdez oil spill 19 years ago. The Washington Post's Dana Milbank notes that Chief Justice John Roberts appeared "bothered" that Exxon might have to pay for its destruction:

What bothered the chief justice was that Exxon was being ordered to pay $2.5 billion -- roughly three weeks' worth of profits -- for destroying a long swath of the Alaska coastline in the largest oil spill in American history.

"So what can a corporation do to protect itself against punitive-damages awards such as this?" Roberts asked in court.

The lawyer arguing for the Alaska fishermen affected by the spill, Jeffrey Fisher, had an idea. "Well," he said, "it can hire fit and competent people."

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 9:00 AM

Warner seems certain for Senate here in Virginia. This state is really changing.
Amazing how one word can change everything: Macaca. Otherwise Allen would be the Repub nominee right now.

Posted by: wpost4112 | February 29, 2008 8:45 AM

Lautenberg is 84 years old, and he retired once before in 2000, clearing the way for Corzine to take his seat (which is now held by Menendez). The only reason Lautenberg came out of retirement in 2002 was Torricelli's implosion; the Democrats needed a well-known name at the last minute to hold the seat against Forrester.

However, I can't understand why Lautenberg decided to run again this time. There are plenty of other Democrats in New Jersey who could win this race. And Estabrook is not the only Republican who can run a credible campaign against Lautenberg, whose main advantage is his vast personal fortune. Lautenberg should retire for good.

Posted by: harlemboy | February 29, 2008 8:41 AM

Chris, that Kos posting on Steve Kirby's cadaver skin business seems to, if true, "put a stake in" his chances. Sheesh! Good thing I had breakfast first.

Posted by: sstackwick | February 29, 2008 8:29 AM

sounds like another wild one...

'USA Today leads with a look at how the huge turnout in the presidential primaries is making election officials nervous about potential problems in November. Officials in several states across the country are requesting more voting machines, paper ballots, and poll workers to make sure they won't have problems on Election Day. '

and democrats are giving bigtime this year..

the WP fronts, Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign announcing that it raised $35 million in February. Sen. Barack Obama's camp hasn't released official figures, but aides said their total was "considerably more." There are estimates that he raised about $50 million, which, combined with Clinton's total, would surpass the record that was set by President Bush and Sen. John Kerry in March 2004. It seems that lending her campaign $5 million was a good strategy for Clinton because online donations, which accounted for $30 million of the total, soared after the news got out'

Posted by: claudialong | February 29, 2008 8:29 AM

JD - Do I have to defend my truck to you? et tu, JD? J do my part to keep Home Depot from hemmhoraging red ink. I am a patriot.

And the field is about to beat HRC, too, having already beaten RG.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 8:24 AM

Posted by: JD | February 29, 2008 8:13 AM

Susan Collins is a very good Senator in my opinion, it'd be a shame to lose her. I'm probably the only guy on this website who watches her and Joe on the Homeland Security Committee (it's my business), and she consistently stays non-political; just wants to make sure our DHS guys have the stuff they need (especially the coasties with Deepwater).

As for NJ: having lived there for 20 years, let me tell you. NJ is a state of mind. Anything can happen, the game is rigged, the fix is in.

Posted by: JD | February 29, 2008 7:59 AM

I am struck by how difficult it is to maintain a centrist wing of either party. Collins and Smith, for example, are centrist Rs, whose overall voting is quite moderate.

I should not be surprised. It is intuitively obvious that it would be easier to change horses in a centrist voting state than in a very conservative or very liberal state.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | February 29, 2008 7:50 AM

Wow, that NJ video was brutal...can she get a refund for investing in herself?

Posted by: SinnedNoir | February 29, 2008 7:40 AM

Mississippi?

Former governor versus never statewide elected appointed senator. I would favor Sen. Wicker, but the Democrats have a better chance to win this seat then the KY. Obama will get the largest black turn out ever, which will help in MS & LA.

Posted by: bclaz1 | February 29, 2008 7:30 AM

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