" there seems to be a significant excitement and energy gap between the energy involved in the Dem race and the GOP race."

Didn't the Dems have double the turn out in VA?

I heard Bill Clinton in Roanoke, Virginia yesterday suggest on a public radio program that caucuses are bad vehicles for choosing the
Democratic presidential nominee, compared to primaries, because anyone can walk in to vote, whether they are registered or not or whether they are even eligible to vote. Did he or Hillary make this claim before the Iowa caucus? Is there any basis in fact for making this statement when applied to the 2008 Democratic caucuses? Sounds like sour grapes to me....

Looking at the other side for a minute it is going to take a McCain a lot to get the R's together in the south. One of the talking head exit poll analysists made an interesting point: Maryland was the first state McCain won among conservatives but Huckabee had a strong margin among the same group among Virginians. The pattern among conservatives before was that Romney won them in the northeast & west but that Huckabee was taking them south. It seems that Romenyites in the south and the plains are breaking Huck but he didn't get them in MD which bodes poorly for him outside the bible belt. The southern/midwestern evangelicals still going for the miracle major means McCain still has some making up to do and to do that he needs to tack right, which loses him more right-leaning independents.

I also believe that the Paulistas aren't going to go for McCain perhaps stronger than the Hucksters following. Remember that Ron Paul's tilting at windmills started attracting his eccentric band of internet geeks, libertarians and fundraisers after the debate stand off with Giuliani over his belief in 'blow-back' and strong support for getting out of Iraq. He has consistantly been getting between 5 and 10 percent of the R vote and in some points west (Nevada, Montana, Washington) he has been breaking twenty. The Bunny-lounge anti-war R's could go Dem because McCain is about the anti-thesis of their platform, pandering to the big brother evangelicals is not going to make him any better and the war in Iraq (and to a lesser extent the war on drugs) was the central mobilizing factor for him. At the very least there could be a strong showing for the Libertarian nominee if they can harnass that. Paul might prefer McCain but even Ron Paul doesn't understand his following.

In short the R house is still divided and McCain will have to do some distasteful pandering to get the South back. And even that might not be enough coming from a party that's hope for a victory rests on a narrow margin.

to llfwilliamd: thank you for getting involved in obama's campaign early. iowa supporters gave obama a chance to do what he's done.

a note on pennsylvania: hillary has an extremely close relationship with the governor and lt. governor. i imagine they'll do everything they can to keep hillary in, bc they'll be confident they can win it for her. will they deliver the state? no idea.

Wow, more big results there for Obama. Whilst it's not over yet, something needs to change for momentum to swing back to Clinton. She might hold on to Texas, maybe Ohio, but it will probably be close.

Interesting no congratulations to Obama from Clinton for his three wins. If republicans can congratulate democrats or vice versa (which is usually the case when one or the other loses), why can't Clinton congratulate a fellow democrat?

Turnout on the democratic side continues to amaze me. More than twice as many democrats voted than republicans when you total the three primaries. Heck, even in Virginia, which has gone republican in presidential elections for as long as I can remember (anyone help me out here?), almost double the amount of democrats voted than republicans. If Virginia was solidly red, it turned a bit purple in 2006 and now is looking like a real possibility for the Democrats in November. Can you imagine, Virginia having a Democratic Governor, both senators being Democratic and the state voting Democratic for president??

Interesting to note also that Obama received more votes than Hillary and John McCain combined.

I was the first Obama volunteer in my north-central Iowa county, so I had the opportunity to see the senator's "ground game" from the beginning. I have never doubted that he would win the nomination, if careful planning, a great message, and very hard work by dedicated staff and volunteers have any meaning in American politics. Oh, by the way, there was always enough money to do what needed to be done, although the Obama campaign's reputation in Iowa was one of frugality compared to the efforts of Edwards and Clinton. Unlike the Edwards and Clinton campaigns, Obama did not have to throw any of his top staff overboard, nor did he ever lose effective control of his message. Looking back at those exciting first months, it now appears that Michell Obama spoke as a prophet when she asked: How can you run the White House if you can't run your own house? Now we know the answer: You can't. The Clinton campaign will dissolve faster than most people imagine because funding will begin to dry up - Texas is a big state and the media markets are extremely expensive - and Hillary's friends will begin to pull back, lest they be injured in the Fall of the House of Clinton. Sheila Jackson Lee and others like her must be feeling very lonely today, standing as they do on the wrong side of history. By the way, Channel 13 (NBC) in Des Moines has recently reported that Hillary's campaign still has large unpaid bills in Iowa. So much for "ready on day one."

Obama's strong victories just add to the sense of the inevitable. He looks and acts like a winner now, with the votes to prove it. His numbers in Virginia alone are outstanding. Clinton looks tired and seems to be low on energy. Her 'Giuliani' strategy won't work because all the (media) focus will be on Obama.

For McCain, he'll be among the walking wounded. The base of his party doesn't care for him and I don't think he'll play well in the fall election. The media will keep Huckabee in the race as they turn their attention to this sideshow. Even if McCain were to win in the fall (which I don't see happening at this point), he'll be presiding over a divided party and won't be able to get much done (similar to Carter in 1976 when he ran as an outsider and alienated his base....)

One thing I noticed about dems vs GOP....

Tonight when the showed the speech from Obama it was in a giant arena in front of thousands of people. When they showed John McCain's speech it looked like he was talking to maybe a hundred or two people in what seemed to be a small conference room you would see at a Marriot or something. The visual impact was significant. Also, taking away the partisan content of the two speeches and just focusing on the mechanics, Obama's speech came accross as historic and profound in his delivery and McCain he had the tone and gravitas that someone might have speaking to the local sales team for a copier company about revenue projections for the next quarter. It just seemed stale.

Of coarse I am a partisan and that may color my perceptions, but there seems to be a significant excitement and energy gap between the energy involved in the Dem race and the GOP race.

churtmah,

How far are the Clinton's willing to go? Well, this is how far they could go. Clinton could lose the remaining primaries, although by smaller margins than some of the recent losses, and then she could set to work to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates.

The potential payoff is that she might still get the nomination, and possibly the presidency.

The potential risk is not only to the Clinton reputation, but to the entire Democratic party. Democrats are more enthusiastic and unified than they have been since, well...Watergate? JFK? FDR? I don't know, but it's been a long time since Democratic prospects have been this strong. But in trying to seat those delegates, everyone who has been excited about Obama will become disenchanted with the system and will peel away from the party, potentially leaving the Democrats again wondering in November what hit them.

Will Clinton risk imploding her own party to secure the nomination? Hard to say, but if she does it will only prove that she is the egomaniac that conservatives have branded her.

The more likely path she will take is fighting through Ohio and Texas, reevaluating her position to see if there is any route to winning without Michigan and Florida, and then dropping out if the losses in Ohio and Texas prove to large. And if she wins either state, then expect her to stay through Pennsylvania.

here's the big question: how far are the Clintons willing to go to win this primary at the risk of jeopardizing their political and Democratic legacies?

One of the most amazing stories of the 2008 campaign is how the African-American electorate has overwhelmingly not voted for Hillary Clinton. This demographic used to be the strongest and most loyal of Bill Clinton's supporters. If there is a strategy of pitting Latino versus African-American Democratic voters than that could rupture this supposedly inclusive and accepting party

Things could change, but at this point if the primary season gets more divisive it could seriously endanger the general Democratic good will towards the Clintons. I have a great fondness for the 1990s but I think the Clintons could best serve the country with Hillary working hard in the Senate and Bill working hard with his foundation. This could be the defining difference between the campaigns: Obama says over and over again that this is all much bigger than one person. For the Clintons, it's hard to imagine that it's bigger than the two of them

Hillary will use whatever dirty tricks she can. I don't think that she'll quit until she loses Pennsylvania, and that's probably too early. She's got 35 years of favors to call in. And don't forget the effort to put in MI and FL.

You like predictions on this blog, here's one:

Mark down March 12th on your calendar. On the day after yet another blowout (this time in Mississippi), down by 100 delegates (including more and more superdelegates breaking for Obama), and facing the prospects of a long month of hopeless campaigning in PA while broke, Hillary will drop out.

What does it all mean? I think it means that CC needs to go out and get us some answers on exactly how much gas is left in Hillary's tank...as in, does her campaign even have the money and resources to fight in these must-win races?

I mean, what are they actually spending all this money they've raised since Super Tuesday on? It doesn't look like it's on GOTV efforts when they can't even pull 40% of the vote in a 2-person race. I can understand lopsided losses in the smaller states, but getting 30-35% of the vote in states the size of WA, VA and MD?!?

Going back to Begala's Alamo analogy: Yeah, she definitely needs to make a last stand in TX--if she can make it that far--but heck, even the guys in the real-life Alamo had enough ammo to defend it!

Obama's margin of 64% to 36% in Virginia is astounding. He is winning almost all demographic groups, including many Clinton has been favored with, women, Latinos, and older voters. She is apparently not getting too interested in Wisconsin, just putting everything into Ohio and Texas, which shows just how on the wall she is. Momentum counts for a lot in politics, just ask Rudy Giuliani, who started the primary season a month after the rest of the country, or ask Fred Thompson, who got into the race very late and just thought everyone would flock to him.

What is also interesting is the 2 congressional races in Maryland. In one district, a moderate/conservative Democrat is being replaced by a more liberal/progressive candidate, and in another district, a moderate Republican is losing to a more conservative-minded Republican. The middle of the road is shrinking, and thus the more extremes are expanding.

With McCain's clean sweep of the three primaries today Huckabee is 100% eliminated and like it or not John McCain is the GOP nominee.

Huckabee needs to immediately back off from his senseless fight against the Republican nominee so the GOP can begin the work of organizing for a huge battle with the Democrats. If Huckabee and Paul stay in they are harming the party and reducing the chance that conservatives will have a voice in the White House next year.

McCain is not my ideal nominee either, but that's who conservatives have to work with this season. The Democrats are the enemy now, not fellow Republicans. Let's get with the program...

http://mittromney.townhall.com

Unfortunatly Hillary backers want to blame the media for reporting the facts.The fact is unlees Hillary can win Texas, Ohio and PA by more than 57%,ands she needs to win all Three her party is over. She started out with such a large lead nationally and now is fighting for her political relavancy.

You may claim that Hillary has all the expierence to be able to hit the road on day one. Yet Obama has run a more orgainized and clearly more succesful campaign.Frankly I find it hard to believe that if you have all this expierence why can't you make it work for you and if you can't make it work for you how can you make it work for me.In my judgement the nation is tired of Bush-Clinton-Clinton_Bush-Bush. It is time for a change.It is time for a break from the failed policies of the past and a new vision of the future.

Obama 08

It means that Hillary can't get back in this unless she dominates in Ohio and Texas, and it also means that her doing that is very, very unlikely.

It means Barack Obama is the next President of The United States of America.

It means Hillary Clinton will drop out BEFORE Ohio and Texas.

http://www.politicalinaction.com

What is important tonight, that perhaps is not getting as much coverage yet, is the numbers that Barack Obama is drawing: almost 620,000 in Virginia to Clinton's 344,000 and McCain's 240,000. While the numbers in DC and Maryland may be significant also, Virginia's results are so surprising in that conventionally pundits would classify Virginia as a red state. Of course recent election's may be showing a trend toward a more "purple" Virginia but none the less, 620,000 for a Democrat compared to 240,000 for a Republican, regardless of the nominees, should be one of the major stories of the night. The key to Obama's success in November will be his ability to get this high number of people out to actually vote for him.

While there are obvious differences between their situations, Clinton's strategy will fail for exactly the reason that Giuliani's strategy failed:

Clinton gains no advantage in Texas and Ohio from campaigning there for a month because, fundamentally, voters don't grow to like her after seeing her more. They already know her just fine, while they're still learning more about Obama. Her only winning strategy in the primary season was to get it over with quickly on the power of name recognition, and that train has long since left the station.

What does it mean? It means, as the Internet indicators have been showing, a Democratic victory.

Obama vs. McCain- The Google Effect:

http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=48

finnpillsbury,

I suspect that Begala does know that everybody holed up in the Alamo was killed, and thus the analogy is so fitting. Clinton has no place left to fight except Texas, and so she is going to fight there, but the increasing likelihood of a loss means that the state may also be her political coffin. Unless she can win Texas, her run is finished.

Where are all the HRC apologists? (not many left)

More than the wins, which were expected for Obama, the margins of victory continue to be huge. The big Virginia loss looks especially difficult for Clinton to overcome, and I'm tending to agree that Clinton's only real hope now is to lobby as many superdelegates as possible and, once most of the primaries are done, try like mad to get the Michigan and Florida delegates seated. This is a terrible strategy that is more likely to blow up in her face than not, but it is pretty much all she has left.

We'll have to wait to see if Clinton can staunch the bleeding in Texas, but there certainly doesn't look to be much hope for her before then. She is spending the entire week there and only arriving in Wisconsin on Saturday. Chelsea made appearances in Madison on Monday, and Bill arrives in the state on Thursday, but given that this is the main contest between now and March 4, spending the entire week ignoring it only to rush in at the last minute seems like a losing strategy.

If Clinton can pull off a win in either Texas or Ohio, she stays in the race, although only by a thread. If she loses both states, she is out, or else she plays with fire by trying to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates as soon as the Pennsylvania and Indiana contests are done.

Anybody want to start taking odds on whether Clinton goes for the aforementioned nuclear option or not? She's already made mention of it, and she promised Florida that she would get them seated in the day or two before their primary, which helped her carry the state. I'm guessing that she does it, but that she waits until all the major states are done voting lest she take a hit from the backlash that will clearly result from this dirty tactic.

Barack wins everything in sight but Hillary is still in the drivers seat?
I think not.
Barack came to Omaha and energized the Nebraska Democrats.
We will send a message to the rest of the world when America elects Obama.

Ricky From Omaha

I won't count Hillary out until the last bell is rung, but boy is Obama kicking butt. Obama is the best politician I've seen since Kennedy and Reagan, the man as got all the skills in the world. If things keep going the way they're going I'll soon be ready to scream out OBAMA/WEBB 08!. Hell yeah!

I was watching the returns on CNN tonight, and I was stunned that Paul Begala referred to the Texas primary as Clinton's "Alamo" -- apparently he doesn't remember that the defenders of the Alamo were all killed by Santa Ana's army...

[Note to the Secret Service: I meant nothing by that sentence, other than to comment on a misguided analogy. Please don't come after me! I caucused for Clinton!]

It's interesting that Obama seems to do so well with well educated people of all colors! Could it be that it is becoming clear that knowledge is power and education gleans wisdom? As a registered Republican who is disillusioned with the current White House Administration, the Democrats should begin to realize that Obama's claims to attract voters from other parties is in fact real. Many of my California Democratic friends are agonizing over their premature votes for HRC through absentee ballots. Many are having "voter remorse" and lament over the fact that they should have voted for Obama. Clearly, the California primary election which HRC won does not accurately represent the true sentiment of the California voters. I voted for McCain in the primary because we are not allowed to vote in the Democratic primary here; however, I too regret the Super Tuesday election and wish that i would have registered as a "decline to state" so that I could have voted for Obama. I will not ever vote for a Clinton, as I feel it is time for their dynasty to end and in truth I do not believe that HRC is authentic or genuine. I feel that she will do or say anything to become the next President. I am concerned that she will try to hijack the election by lobbying for the Michigan and Florida delegates. If this happens, I think we will have a tremendous revolt within the Democratic party which McCain by default will benefit from. For over a year, I have been predicting that Obama would win the Presidency; however, my concern for the "dirty politics" tactics that the Clinton's are known for is a legitimate concern. if HRC somehow manages to win the overall primary, many Democrats, Independents and Republicans who would have given their vote to Obama will vote for McCain. It's a question of how dearly Democrats really want to see change. HRC has received morecampaign money from lobbyists and special interest groups than all of the other candidates combined. Obama gets his money from a grassroots base which represents the general public that being you and me. As for HRC's claim of experience? Please, I'm married to a CEO and have been for nearly twenty years, this does not qualify me to go out and run a company just because I've traveled and met many CEO's and Presidents of other companies. Her claim of 35 years of experience is really quite misleading and those of us with the education and intelligence to think rationally understand this. Does anyone really believe that she could have been elected as a New York Senator had she not been married to Bill Clinton? NO! Go Obama...GOP + Republican = Obamacan

Donna Edwards is ahead of Al Wynn by 24% with 46% reporting- Score another victory for progressive change. Unheard of margin against an incumbent.

The fact that HRC started her Texas campaign in El Paso (80% Hispanic) and will be primarily in the Rio Grande valley in the next few days (ditto 80% Hispanic) should tell us that HRC is going to be pitting Hispanics vs. African-Americans in the Texas primary. There is truly no level low enough for the Clintons to stoop.

I am concerned that the tabloid-like nature of CNN and MSNBC is actually influencing voters. It seems as if their material is designed to manipulate rather than report the news. Unfortunately, too many people prefer this hype and don't take the time to research the candidates for themselves. More than ever we need to use good criteria to elect an effective President. Obama and his abilities will be a big unknown. Yikes!

did people hear hillary saying lately that "my husband didn't win these states either," talking about some of her recent losses.

how in the world is that relevant? who cares what your husband won or didn't? what does that have to do with 2008?

NYCFC...how do you reconcile your comment with the fact that Obama won blue collar voters, latinos, white men, and all of his supposed weak demographic groups and narrowed the gender gap tonight?

These wins tonight are going to be amplified for two reasons-- first, the sheer margin of victory, especially when Hillary was trying to claim that she had a shot in Virginia. And second, and more important, they were in the DC area, where all of the political journalists are based. This is local news for them, and they will all write about it in their papers around the country. Far more journalists will be writing stories about these states than were writing about LA, WA, NE, and ME because they're experiencing it firsthand, from their bureau desk. And that will make these primaries resonate around the country.

I think Hillary might be on the verge of a comeback. That bit in her speech about creating a tax credit for college based on public service was brilliant.

I just can't help but shake the feeling that I've heard it somewhere before, though...

...like in any number of Obama speeches.

Everybody knew it would be a tough month for Hillary, but NO one saw that it would be this tough.
When it became apparant she might try to steal it with Fla/Mich/ Supers, folks saw the only way to slay the dragonlady was to stomp on it till it died.
Well, she is on life support tonight, the only question is when the coupe de Gras will occur.

Politics is fun!!!!

I think if Hillary is serious about winning the nomination, she should start acting like a winner. A candidate who engages in questionable strategies like ceding half the nation to her opponent will probably be a president who places similarly risky bets with the country's future.

I am more siked than when the giants beat the patriots ... this has been a fun race to watch !

We are about to see some SERIOUS slash and burn politics from the Clintons.

It's going to be scorched earth sort of stuff.

It is going to ruin Bill's post-Presidency.

It is going to threaten an implosion within the Democratic Party.

But it still won't work.

You see, Hillary still hasn't learnt that you can't be the kill-joy preaching against 'hope' and expect to win. And she can't 'out-hope' Obama. (Although this ridiculous "I see an America..." stump speech is an attempt to do so)

The interesting thing tonight was MCCAIN's speech... he sounded like Hillary when she calls for "reality checks" etc... it is simply not going to work, as people might chuckle, but they don't respond warmly.

McCain has one option against Obama, and it is this theme:

"I am inspired by Barack Obama, just like everyone else. I also believe in hope. I also believe in changing Washington. But I am the best one to do it."

*insert weird thumbs up here with the straight arms that don't work properly that reminds people he is a former POW*

I don't think it will work.... but it's his best shot. It's really just a similar theme to Hillary but IMPORTANTLY without the sneering and sarcasm...

What it means is that voters who have politics in their backyard, and who, as a result, follow politics more closely than in any other part of the country, are overwhelmingly pro-Obama. It's the same reason why educated voters, who tend to follow politics more closely, are such an overwhelming pro-Obama constituency -- note that, when you control for education, there's no correlation between income and voter preference.

Fundamentally, the more voters see Obama, the better he does. That's not a partisan statement, and I won't try to explain why that is; it's just a statement of fact. And it bodes very poorly for Clinton, who can expect saturated coverage of the race between now and March 4.

>60% victories from here on out for Obama.

Hillary playing a game of Texas hold-em with a losing hand. Obama will win Texas, the Valley will not save Clinton, the Latino demographic is too young.

Her speech tonight sounded like a Hail Mary, but not full of grace.

Edwards waited too long to endorse.

Only chance for Hillary is the nuclear option, trying to seat the FL-MI delegates.

It means Hillary will have to resort to drastic measures to stop Obama's momentum. She will have to attack him to the point where question start to be raised about who he is. Everyday from now until TX she needs to hammer him relentlessly and make THAT the story instead of this tremendous winning streak Obama is on. The problem is that Obama has shown that when attacked, he will respond forcefully , and the Clintons will be accused of playing the race card by the media . The question is : How bad does Hillary want it ? Does she want it enough to destroy the Democratic party so she can win the nomination and survive to fight another day ? We shall see.

I think that Obama had a much deserved win in these three primaries. They were, however, more suited towards him in terms of demographic groups.

I do not think that Obama will win either Texas or Ohio because neither are favorable environments to him. He needs affluent, educated, and black voters. There are some in these states, but Texas and Ohio are more blue collar and Hillary's message resonates more with them.

For the Republicans, McCain clearly has the nomination, but he desperately needs to consolidate the conservative base behind his candidacy.

It's becoming apparent that Senator Clinton is not the politician or executive that she claims to be. She's not bad; but she's not really superior at anything except talking about policy. Paul Begala hinted at the problem tonight on CNN when he suggested she really needed to change her message to economic populism. When another analyst suggested that would look bad because she's had 35 years and still hasn't fount the right message, Begala essentially agreed.
****
That might be okay if Senator Obama was weak in any area but even on policy, where he is arguably less experienced, he clearly understands it well enough to hold his own (and they're not even talking Constitutional issues where he'd probably shine).

It means Obama is going to be our next president, probably in a landslide.

HRC was in El Paso tonight, another example of her exploiting the Guiliani strategy of skipping places she knows she'll lose in favor of more favorable "last stands". Obama was in Madison Wisconsin, preparing to continue his sweep in what is actually the next places to vote. I think Obama is creating a wave of momentum that will alter the fundamental numbers in the Ohio and Texas races.

Para Tejas, como se dice "64 ounce can of whoop-ass"?

We need to look ahead further than the TX primary that Obama is going to take, and realize that the last person Hillary throws overboard will be Slick Willy, something any self-respecting person would do to a blatantly philandering spouse. But then, who would she exploit? Will the real pimp in this campaign please stand up?

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