It's an interesting one. Ten wins on the trot could only be significant for Obama. He is able to establish a narrative that he is winning across the nation, not just in the big delegate-heavy states.

Clinton has made a mistake not campaigning in a number of states very heavily - it gives the impression that she is scared of engaging and losing. It risks causing her media profile to decline.

More importantly the longer she goes without a win the more Obama looks like the eventual nominee and strongly outdoes her in fundraising terms. It will be an uphill struggle for Hillary for a while.

It seems to me that BO and HRC are nearly identical on the issues. What's different is the 47% of America that has already decided HRC is up to no good, and the fact that BO inspires people. Honestly after the last 7 brutal years of poorly conjugated verbs and fear mongering I think what this country (and the world) really needs is an American President who can express hope and the desire to work together. Work with democrats, work with republicans, work with independents, and mostly work with the rest of the world. Today, our problems are their problems and their problems are our problems. The only answer that makes any sense is to stop talking about "us" and "them", whoever the us and them is. BO is the only one that I hear talking about that, not HRC and certainly not McCain or Huckasquirrel.

As a researcher this primary is very interesting for me to understand US political behaviour along with other primaries.

I was struck by the divide in Virginia's vote along geographical lines.
Clinton wins in the counties west of Bedford, Obama to the east.

The Obama victories in Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax are significant in their spread. These are counties where several of the D.C. staffers and other personnel from the Capital live. It suggests more than anything else the degree to which Mrs. Clinton is weaker among those who know most about her. I would make a hypothesis here that Mr. Obama has gained due to a strong anti-Clinton vote among insiders in the Democratic organisation.

The further West one goes in Virginia, Obama begins to lose votes. My hypothesis here is that race begins to matter, as Washington is more distant, and so are the candidates. Therefore the "Southern" political reality of race is displayed in the Western parts of Virgina, even among democrats.

With the heavy weight primary states Texas, Ohio and Pennslyvania coming on line soon, it will be interesting to anticipate to what extent these three states are not "Southern" in the racial implications. Is race less salient in these non-Southern states? We shall see when the results come in if it is myth or reality the South is more racially motivated than the North. Further adding to the data will be Texas. Certainly, Texas will be approached in terms of "getting" the Latino American votes with no subtlety at all. However, Pennsylvania will be harder to approach in that manner as the Democrats in this clearly Northern state will likely be unfavourable to overt attempts to court them on racial or gender lines. Yet, I suspect Pennslyvania might just look more like rural New York after election day, unless Obama makes a huge play for it.

Ohio's democrats will be a bit different with those South of I-70 likely to vote identity politics more than those North of it, if the old theory of the South is any good.

One last thing. How to spell DESPERATION:

Deny that Obama's wins mean anything important.
Escape from reality with a Florida victory speech.
Seize the day by losing 10 straight.
Pay it forward -- $5 million from your own account.
Eat your heart out while staff goes without pay.
Replace overpaid top campaign staff.
Attempt to seat delegates you agreed to give up.
Tear up frequently about how "this is personal."
Irritate superdelegates with hubby's daily calls.
Ostracize reporter to discredit pesky bad news.
Negotiate new debate schedule out of fear.

Yes, Obama's winning streak has fundamentally changed the race. With Obama wins expected in Wisconsin and Hawaii next week, Clinton loses every vestige of "inevitability." Moreover, Obama's win in the Potomac primaries among women, Latinos and lower-income voters bodes well for how he will fare in upcoming contests. Even if Clinton wins in Texas and Ohio, the margins will not be nearly as large as Obama's recent blowouts of Clinton, and thus, her delegate gains will not be decisive. What will be decisive are the contests after Texas: Indiana, North Carolina, Mississipi, West Virginia, Oregon and others -- even American Samoa and Virgin Islands have delegates. Most of these battles tend to favor Obama, and his margins there will be as huge as they have been. And if Obama can score Texas or Ohio, so much the better. Then the fat lady will sing "Yes We Can" in three-part harmony all by herself.

you need to go to the candidate's web sites and read his policy statements , because that's where the meat and potatoes are.

"I know where HRC stands and I know where McCain stands. I'm not sold."

Obama's speeches are meant to inspire, to communicate his vision for America and the world. The details are on his website (dozens and dozens of .pdf pages await), in his town hall Q&A sessions, and in his interviews (60 minutes, charlie rose from 2006 are excellent). You can find all of this stuff with a small amount of googling. Please don't mistake a lack of speaking ability for a lack of substance. Your country demands your careful attention right now, because we are at a critical moment.

Did anyone listen to BO's speech tonight? More fluff. All fluff. Where is the substance? Can someone please talk about the middle class? Yes, we want change but, tell us exactly how we attain it? HRC talks policy and BO talks poetry. This is what scares me. What are his ideas exactly? I'm sure if you asked all these primary voters tonight why they voted for BO they wouldn't say "Because he has some good ideas" because noone knows what his ideas are? I know where HRC stands and I know where McCain stands. I'm not sold.

Dems might as well hitch their wagon to McCain or whoever the Republican nominee is because it will be a totally different ride once the Republicans put their foot on the accelerator, turn the corner and start running Obama down...

In addition to the string of (big) Obama victories, don't forget the parallel narrative of universal concern over a protracted primary battle. I wouldn't be surprised if Clinton supporters in TX, OH, et al. (not to mention superdelegates) decide it would be better to just hitch their wagon to Obama than risk further damage to Dems' chances in November. This is going to be an interesting few weeks.

He is also leading in the polls in Hawaii and Wisconsin, which will vote on Feb. 19.

Chris, where are these polls from Hawaii you're talking about? I haven't seen a single one. And BTW, have you seen any from Texas?

Super Tuesday afforded huge gains for Hillary. I think you can say that the endorsements that came right before Super Tuesday, Oprah, Kennedy, Shriver, etc. didn't necessarily have an impact until these last sets of races...

Add that to funding, staff and strategy problems, running against a relative unknown, Clinton ...didn't expect this to be a competitive race and counted mainly on the bigger states she won...

It may be too late to recoup, we'll have to see what intangibles may change, like endorsements, the debates.. how strong she can run in the remaining states..

But one thing is for sure, the media and the pundits have been relentless in their attacks....you would think this was the Presidential race, not the primaries; Hillary has been maligned and trashed by by virtue of association, it's amazing she's still in tact...

When the dust settles tonight and the delegates are counted, Obama will have Big Mo. The coverage over the next few weeks will be the closing argument for voters in Texas and Ohio. The fat lady sings in March. Sorry Pennsylvania, you're too late.

All hillarys wins occured early on. California was carried by early votes.

Obama has been surging since Iowa{ NH Now seen as an outlier)

Looks like Mar4 will be the end of the line

Obama is beating Hillary in all demographics now. Older and working class whites voted for Obama in VA and MD. I don't see how this trend won't carry over to Ohio and Texas...

-Larry

Let's talk about Penn, Ohio, and Texas we know the narrative up to there. But what's the story in those three states?

Love your blog.

As an Obama supporter, I certainly hope this string of victories should matter. Hopefully people in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas will take note that Senator Obama has had broad appeal both on a micro and macro level. He's won in different kinds of states and has won different kind of people's votes. Obama's appeal seems to be slightly reaching into traditionally Hillary segments (lower socio-economic status voters, unions, women) but Hillary is not doing the same into Obama territory (more educated, higher income voters, African Americans). In other words, from the numbers, it seems that there are more Hillary people switching to Obama than the other way around.

All that said...

Numerically speaking, if Clinton wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas (by a good margin), the race is once again tied and probably tilts toward Hillary given the mess that are the super delegates. I hope Obama can keep the momentum, can keep the positive media coverage, and can keep our collective faith that the full Billary Clinton imperial Presidency will never fully come to fruition.

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