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A Few Questions Before Polls Close
Polls close in Virginia in less than two hours (7 p.m.) and in Maryland and the District of Columbia 60 minutes later.
While Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) are expected to roll to victories in Maryland and the District, Virginia could well be a battleground for both parties. Former governor Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.) is making a serious push against McCain in the Commonwealth and supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) view Virginia as her best chance for a strong showing tonight.
As always in the hours leading up to polls closing, we have more questions than we have answers. The Post's chief political scribe -- and the smartest political reporter we know -- Dan Balz, offered eight key questions that tonight's Potomac Primary might answer. Do yourself a favor and read the whole piece.
Here's a few other questions worth considering as you watch the returns roll in tonight.
* How much do margins matter? Polling suggests McCain and Obama carried double digit leads into today's Virginia vote. If they win by single digits do either Huckabee or Clinton declare victory? Clinton, for her part, would likely do so as the calendar for the rest of February isn't too friendly for her. A closer than expected loss would likely be cast by the Clinton operation as a sign that there is no wave building behind Obama and would buy her the time she needs to run strong in Ohio and Texas. Huckabee's wins over the weekend in Louisiana Kansas put the "McCain as nominee" storyline on hold and a Huckabee win (or narrow loss) in Virginia would hold the coronation off a bit longer.
On the other hand, if Obama wins Virginia by a wide margin, the "what's wrong with Clinton" storyline is sure to dominate the coverage over the next few days. On the Republican side, a convincing McCain sweep tonight would likely signal the end of the Huckaboom as the former Arkansas governor would almost certainly bow to the seemingly inevitable.
* How many more votes are cast in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary in Virginia? Democrats believe recent gains at both the statewide and legislative level are clear indicators that the Commonwealth will be a contested state at the presidential level in 2008. If Democratic turnout vastly exceeds Republican turnout -- as anecdotal reports seem to suggest -- it will be yet more evidence that they are right.
* Who helps (or hurts) themselves in the Veepstakes? Virginia is known as the "mother of presidents" but given the number of vice presidential picks in the Commonwealth a renaming might be in order. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) has the most riding on tonight's results as a very early endorser of Obama's campaign. A convincing win for the Illinois Senator will likely mean a strong performance by Kaine's political organization. Sen. Jim Webb (Va.) is mentioned as a veep pick for either Clinton or Obama -- the main reason he took a VERY low profile in the week between Super Tuesday and tonight's vote. Does Webb decide to endorse if Obama wins convincingly in the Commonwealth tonight? And then there is former governor Mark Warner, the most popular politician in the state and an overwhelming favorite to win the state's open U.S. Senate seat this November. Warner was a one-time presidential candidate in his own right and clearly wants back in to the national picture. But how?
Check this space for semi-regular updates throughout the night. You can also stay up to date on the latest happenings here.
By Chris Cillizza |
February 12, 2008; 5:56 PM ET
| Category:
Eye on 2008
Previous: The 'Other' Potomac Primaries |
Next: Obama Wins Virginia
Get This Widget >>
Posted by: binkynh | February 12, 2008 8:56 PM
Yep, lyle, a whole 7% of those voting in the Virgina Democratic primary are Republicans.
So he's only going to win by 16% among Dems and Independents.
Too bad that the "Republican conspiracy" line of attack is just a pile of crap.
Posted by: cam8 | February 12, 2008 8:25 PM
I offer my apologies. It was not intentional. I deleted the message before posting it and my computer/WPost blog site went crazy on me.
Posted by: rfpiktor | February 12, 2008 07:44 PM
What, the WaPo website software betrayed you? What's next... Kucinich claiming to see a UFO? Pat Buchanan saying he doesn't like Jews? Zell Miller voting with the GOP?
Posted by: JD | February 12, 2008 7:52 PM
I offer my apologies. It was not intentional. I deleted the message before posting it and my computer/WPost blog site went crazy on me.
Posted by: rfpiktor | February 12, 2008 7:44 PM
Rfpiktor, as a fellow Obama supporter I want to ask you to please keep your tone polite. We need to buckle down and focus on making our case to WI, TX, and OH (where a SUSA poll just showed Clinton +17.) We win those and we can end this thing. And we need Clinton supporters to stand with us in tossing the Bush regime and everything it has stood for out of power. We do not disagree with Clinton supporters on much besides who is the best person to do so. Unless you're just a right-wing hack trying to sow discord within the Democratic party, please keep it positive or at least factual.
Posted by: Nissl | February 12, 2008 7:34 PM
Ouch! The sound of the fat lasy singing is drowning out the collective that are the family-size cans of whoop-ass being opened by the Obama faithful. Next time I see Bubba at Hooters, I'll buy him a can!
Posted by: bondjedi | February 12, 2008 7:33 PM
lyle, please look over Eugene Robinson's Op-Ed in today's Washington Post, "The Dr. Evil Dilemma."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/11/AR2008021102269.html
Posted by: malis | February 12, 2008 7:24 PM
lylepink | February 12, 2008 07:08 PM
Go fug yourselves.
Posted by: rfpiktor | February 12, 2008 7:23 PM
lylepink | February 12, 2008 07:08 PM
Go fug yourselves.
Posted by: rfpiktor | February 12, 2008 7:23 PM
lylepink | February 12, 2008 07:08 PM
Go fug yourselves.
Posted by: rfpiktor | February 12, 2008 7:23 PM
OBAMA WINS VIRGINIA according to NBC.
That was the "difficult" state for him.
Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier!
Posted by: rfpiktor | February 12, 2008 7:18 PM
Early reports indicate a lot of Repubs are voting for Obama, my prediction is apparently accurate.
Posted by: lylepink | February 12, 2008 7:08 PM
Fox exit polling showing obama with a 58% to 42% lead over Clinton in WOMEN voters.
http://thepage.time.com/video-fox-preliminary-democratic-potomac-exits/
If that holds up Clinton is in a HUGE amount of trouble going forward.
Posted by: CH1234 | February 12, 2008 6:50 PM
Corridorg, can I just add that I cannot understand why Clinton is not going to be in WI tonight. The two polls to date show Clinton +9, Obama +11 and it's a primary state filled with lower income white voters who are supposedly her base. Hardly a foregone conclusion. Just as in other states, her diminished presence will allow Obama to win close if he would otherwise lose close, or run the score up if he would otherwise win close, impacting the delegate count. It's a salubrious effect of the delegate system that campaigns must contest every state. I understand that Clinton MUST win OH and TX to stay alive, but one would think OH at least might be influenced by the events in WI.
Posted by: Nissl | February 12, 2008 6:47 PM
lol, the Pelosi recession. Try the subprime, government debt, and energy costs recession.
Idiocracy, (noun): 1. Any state in which a majority of the people are stupid enough to listen to right-wing talking points 2. America, 2001-2005.
Posted by: Nissl | February 12, 2008 6:41 PM
I disagree with the notion that a single digit win by Obama over Clinton would be considered an indication of strength on her part. She has had too many losses in a row. Super Tuesday may have been a draw, but considering her level of confidence before last week's contests, it was a victory of perception of Obama.
The "Potomac" Primary comes so quickly after this weekend's primaries, that there is virtually no way to split the analysis. This, combined with the foregone conclusion that Obama will also take Maryland and D.C., plus the fact that Clinton has all but conceded Wisconsin and Hawaii are all negatives. A loss by a narrow margin in one state out of eight will still be interpreted as negative.
She may very well win in Ohio and Texas, but I do not see her winning by large margins. If she chooses to not stand and fight in February, I do not know she cannot possibly rebuild her momentum in the time before the convention.
Posted by: corridorg4 | February 12, 2008 6:39 PM
idiocracy: a form of government and system of beliefs comprised of a movement afoot lead by spectator and drindl to advance moronic ideas and launch them into mainstream thought. they are typically built on a foundation that beleives that surrender leads to victory, taxes lead to productivity, regulations lead to freedom, junk science leads to truth, etc.
the latest polls show that fewer than 15% of the population is suscepible to this form of ignorance. you can ascertain the members by asking if they still approve of the Reid/Pelosi congress even after winning the war and the onset of the Pelosi recession.
Posted by: kingofzouk | February 12, 2008 6:36 PM
Depends on the single digits. Losing VA 54-45 wouldn't look particularly strong to me as an undecided voter in WI, OH, or TX. Losing 50-48, as predicted by the Obama spreadsheet, would look pretty strong.
Much as I hate to admit it, I think Clinton can claim momentum if she keeps it within 5. It'll be a "tie" from 5-8 or so, and then an Obama victory.
Posted by: Nissl | February 12, 2008 6:30 PM
rfpiktor: you must be new to this planet. Welcome!
Posted by: Spectator2 | February 12, 2008 6:20 PM
BAGHDAD - The speaker of Iraq's fragmented parliament threatened Tuesday to disband the legislature, saying it is so riddled with distrust it appears unable to adopt the budget or agree on a law setting a date for provincial elections.
>>> unable to pass a budget?? - sounds just like the Reid/Pelosi government. unable to agree on elections - sounds like howard deans Dem party.
Maybe we could arrange a cultural exchange, we could do no worse than reid/Pelosi
Posted by: kingofzouk | February 12, 2008 6:20 PM
Chris,
A win is a win. Who gives a damn if it was by one vote.
It's a "race" not a spin contest.
Posted by: rfpiktor | February 12, 2008 6:06 PM
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Gee, I guess Hillary's prayer for a single digit win in VA is slightly dashed, huh?
Looks like Barack Obama gained a couple points since even yesterday's VA polling.
I await the re-emergence of the red-faced version of Bill.