2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll

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Right, I'm a racist feminist. That's why I pointed out that Christine Gregoire called the Legislature into special session to reenact I-747, which passed by 9-1 margins in both houses and got 58% when it was on the ballot--nowhere near "better than 70%". It's also why I linked to 4 polls that found Gregoire ahead of Dino Rossi, since not a single poll has shown Rossi ahead.

Do you always hurl personal epithets at those who point out that your posts are riddled with untruths?

If everything breaks right then Cornyn will be gone. Cornyn is the biggest clown in the Senate. Clinton kills that chance (as well as every other down ticket Dem in TX). Nominate Clinton and McCain takes the WH and Texas Dems are crushed.

labrat94720 - While you blather on about Cltinon having a chnace to win Arkansas, the pollls out West show her **loosing* to McCain in critical Democratic states like Oregon and Washington.

And jon.morgan.1999 - I've never written anything to you. I haven't got the slightest idea of who you are. But, I suspect you are one of Clinton's mob of racist feminists and, like Gerlaine, are too dumb to even notice.

Actually, we lost 12 Senate seats in 1980: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_1980

I don't understand why my post pointing out mlbrooks27's numerous factual errors is being held in moderation.

Let me get this straight--the NRSC's goal is a 59D-41R Senate?? That is bloody amazing and telling. It sounds like the 1970s (before the GOP gained 7 Senate seats in 1980, to answer the earlier question). In fact, it has been 28 years since we had 58 Democratic senators, and that was back when a lot of them were conservative Southerners a la Stennis, Heflin, Hollings, Wendell Ford, and Shelby. Yeah, all 59 Dems would have to stick together to beat Republican filibusters, but the fact of there being that many of them would definitely embolden them to do so. They'd only have to pick off one Republican, like Arlen Specter or Olympia Snowe.

Will Gov. Lynch beat Judd Gregg in 2010??

With Bill Richardson as the VP I think that puts Texas in play

Cilizza forgot to mention the fact that Mark Warner, the most popular politician in Virginia, will be on the ballot along with the Democratic presidential nominee. He's running for Senate and will beat whoever the GOP puts up like a rented mule. He's bound to provide coat tails for any Democratic presidential contender.

"60 is a filibuster-proof majority only if every senator is in attendance and there's complete party unity. How often does that happen? Depending on the issue, moderates in both parties might vote with the other side......... The Democrats will gain enough seats to often have a filibuster-proof majority, even if they don't reach 60." - Blarg

Exactly right, Blarg. You've made a point I've been making to people over and over for months now. Not every republican Senator is going to fillibuster every Democratic attempt to pass legislation. Say we end up with 57 seats after November by picking up VA, NM, NH, CO, MN, AK and reatining LA. You can be sure that GOP Senators like Collins, Snowe, Specter, Smith and Lugar will not participate in many GOP filibusters. In fact, I'd wager that crop is likely to take part in few - if any - filibusters. It would kind of blow the lid off of their "moderate" labels is Senators such as Snowe and Collins started taking part in Mitch McConnel filibusters to block progressive legislation like SCHIP, anti-torture legislation, minimum wage increases, healthcare reform, ethics reform, and repealment of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.

multiple polls show that Hillary Clinton can carry Arkansas and its 6 EVs in a general election matchup against McCain.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/03/13/765973.aspx
Clinton 51%
McCain 36%

Obama 27%
McCain 43%

There were SUSA polls and Rasmussen previously that confirmed this.

It is unclear if Huckabee is on the ticket what effect that would bring but it is wrong to say Arkansas is likely to be carried by the Republicans since Hillary Clinton still has a shot at the Democratic nomination.

I agree with thebobbob. Which way a state tends to vote in presidential elections doesn't necessarily reflect on other races. Almost all statewide officials in Montana are Ds, and the state GOP is, unfortunately, going through a pretty rough time. Republicans in Montana had only one shot to seriously challenge Baucus this year, which was to convince Rep. Rehberg (the sole House member for Mont.) to challenge him -- and even then I think Baucus would have had a far better than even chance at winning. Rehberg wisely decided to keep his safe House seat. I think there were literally zero other "top tier" GOP options this cycle. Baucus will coast to reelection, just like he did in '02.

'Nothing spectacular. Probably a compromise on taxes that will lower the corporate top tax rate and raise the exemption on the estate tax, while closing loopholes like the oil industry credit; while both removing the AMT and repealing tax cuts for the wealthy.'

McCain has already vowed that he will NOT repeal tax cuts for the wealthy. Nor will he close loopholes on the oil industry when his is now so beholden to them. McCain, as president, will not have the ability to be independent, he will do what the repubican establishment wants him to do. Whic is more of the same.

As far as judges, Roberts is a knee-jerk rightwinger who has never seen a corporation he couldn't do a favor for. Nor does he care much for the Bill of Rights. Alito and Thomas are utterly vapid and mediocre.Scalia is a theocrat.

Leichtman, I do not think Cornyn would be a major player during a McC Admin.

Why do you think Cornyn would lose to Col. Rick if HRC is on the ballot? Col. Rick will have to run ahead of the D prez nominee to win. That could only [barely conceivably] happen if the social far right stays home, IMO.

They will come out to vote against HRC, don't you think?

Nissi -

I think Prez McC with a D Congress actually would give us a chance at a compromise-but- real energy policy that would include conservation, basic research funding, AND nuke plants. Add cap-and-trade and you have the beginning of a carbon/warming policy too. I see McC appointing honorable conservative judges and I think Robertson would be a model. I do not think the Senate will have much problem with his nominees to the courts. I even think he is comfortable enough with Specter and Leahy that he would "preview" appointments with them, maybe over dinner.

We would not start a "preemptive" war with even a nuclear Iran unless Congress wanted it - McC does not believe in the Prez having unitary war making authority. If Iran attacked someone with a nuke - someone we liked - I suspect Congress would support some sort of military effort, don't you?

One thing is for sure, this has been and will be one of the most exciting elections in recent history. If the economy continues to take hits then the Dems may get the 60 needed.

If a democrat is elected President and if the the Democrats get a senate majority, then
filibusters by the GOP should be answered with a threat of nuclear option, the same threat that the GOP made during the appointment of judges under President Bush.

I just would like to see how the GOP senators will react to their own bad medicine.

CC writes " While many Republicans believe Franken will be a weak general election candidate, even the most loyal GOP strategists acknowledge that they would have preferred a costly and extended Democratic primary fight."

I guess we'll just have to console ourselves by watching the protracted and bloody NATIONAL primary fight instead!!

Bwaaahhaaahaahaaahaaa!!!!

Meanwhile, over in SoDak, the South Dakota Campaign for Healthy Families called yesterday for a petition drive to put the abortion ban on the November ballot, this time a scaled back version with exceptions for rape, incest, or woman's health. That could have a profound effect on the Nov. outcome in the state, if the past is any predictor.

They tried the sexual improprieties stuff on cantwell last cycle. That worked real well, and things usually work better 2nd time around, or maybe not. Unless you're talking about how McCain tries to flirt with her in the Senate chambers. Now that's scandalous...its the most disturbing thing you've ever seen.

I keep hearing from some people who know some people who would know that Oklahoma will be in play. Doesn't make sense to me, but the R is Jim Inhofe, one of the biggest doofuses to ever serve, and the D is a moderate, young, charismatic state senator from OKC named Andrew Rice.

OK is as red as they come, but D's can win statewide in the right circumstances. Witness Gov. Brad Henry and former US Senator David Boren. So put this one on the back burner, but don't forget about it.

"Caribis, you were right and my memory deceived me - someone here in my office says with certainty that in 1980 the Rs swept to a 6 vote majority in the Senate when they had been down 6 or so."

Repubs who won that year included Dan "[INSERT JOKE HERE]" Quayle and John "Helms on Wheels" East.

Chris, you forgot two other developments this week. First, Rep. Steve King has declined to challengs Sen Tom Harkin in Iowa, meaning that the GOP will likely not field a strong challenger in that race. Second, former Rep. Jim Slattery will apparently challenge Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas. While Slattery will still be a heavy underdog, this race still represents an additional serious challenge by the Democrats for a GOP seat, something the GOP really doesn't need at this time.

mark you should know better than to talk about a 55/45 split. Why? John Cornyn. He is an obstructionist hypocrit exactly in the mold of Phil Gramm who will use and abuse the filibuster for whatever purpose he can get away with. If he is re-elected he will be a thorn in either Pres. Clinton's side or Obama's side and will filibuster anything that even faintly smells of universal healthcare. And this from the Sen who pushed the nuclear option and demanded an up or down vote on his right wing judges. Sometimes I felt that Dems should have taken him up on that threat b/c it certainly will bite them in the rear next january. Hillary's turnout of Texas hispanic voters may actually be our best hope of unseating John Cornyn.

I don't think that voting for Bush in 2004 means that much any more. Tester won in Montana, a "red" state that now has two D-Senators. In Oregon, a large turnout of D's for Obama could overwhelm a dispirited Republican party. The Oregon R's can't pay their bills and aren't even fielding candidates in some races. Other Western States, mad about the anti-environmental policies of the Republicans, may make a statement this year.

Caribis, you were right and my memory deceived me - someone here in my office says with certainty that in 1980 the Rs swept to a 6 vote majority in the Senate when they had been down 6 or so.

shrink2 - I live in Oregon (Eugene) and you're crazy if you think Smith will loose. Look, I don't like him and don't intend to vote for him, but Steve Novick is just plain awful. He is wedded to the public employee unions to the extent that former Democratic Congresswoman Elizabeth Furse, Democratic Multnomah County Commissioner Lonnie Roberts have endorsed him. Smith also has the endorsement of Mark former governor Vic Atiyeh and former Senator Hatfield. The big county governments (and plenty of cities) are on a tax rampage in Oregon, rasing taxes and fees, bypassing voters, and have angered both liberals and conservatives. The backlash is so bad that a Republican is in the lead for the Eugene mayoral race! Stick a fork in Democratic chances of taking the Oregon Senate seat, therre is NO CHANCE of that happening. Up in Washington State, however, Gregoire has come out forcefully against a citizen's initative limiting tax increases to 1%. Now that initiative passed by a better than 70% margin and her use of the courts, kissing the collective b*tts of the public employee unions, has gone over so badly that she is BEHIND Rossi in the polls. Likewise, Senator Outsourcer, Maria Cant-Vote-Well, Maria Cantwell, has been targetted for defeat by the whole of the Obama supporters and every high tech employee in the state. She isn't up for reelection for four years but there are reports (and plenty of digging) of sexual improprieties that will make it problematic that she finish this term.

Interesting Mark_in_austin. How do you see this kind of setup (which appears more and more likely) handling spiralling oil prices, global warming, supreme court nominations? What if Iran gets a nuke?

As far as the Democrats, I'd expect from both less withdrawal from Iraq than promised, but slightly more than McCain. Iran, I think Clinton may flip out and try to look tough by bombing them. I think Obama would probably try soft power approaches. I still don't have a good solution as to how we stop them from going nuclear. In the long run it would be best if we could sell the Iranian leaders on joining up with globalization - the people are already mostly there. Domestically, I would expect from both Democrats substantial measures on Bush tax cuts, AMT, minimum wage, energy bill. Probably nothing done about entitlements - maybe Obama would address SS in his second term with any of the minimal measures necessary to fix it. Obama would probably be more aggressive about health care than Clinton who is talking about it being second-term. Probably neither will do much about trade. Maybe a couple of small changes and sabre rattling for labor. I think both would go after border security first on immigration, with some compromises that hint at eventual naturalization for those already here. Obama will go after illegal employers as well.

On the estate tax, which will be addressed in 2009 because that was the year to which Congress previously "kicked the can", see

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/12/AR2008031203589.html?wpisrc=newsletter&wpisrc=newsletter&wpisrc=newsletter
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Caribis, I do not remember that RR had long coattails in '80.

In purple and even red states, local pols think HRC will have negative coat-tails. The chair of the MS Ds says he sees BHO as putting two congressional districts in play.

My district in TX is safely R with HRC at the top. I will be campaigning for the D to win my district. I am an Indie and my R Congressman is almost worthless. So I am a probable McC voter rooting for BHO to be the D nominee so I have a shot at electing a D Congressman from my District. The D running actually reminds me of Charlie Wilson.

"I don't see how [Democrats] get to 60."

Really I do. First off they win VA, NH, LA, OR, NM, CO, and Alaska (Stevens is going to JAIL). Then all they have to win is NC (very possible with a strong Black turnout for Obama), Maine, or Idaho (Larry Craig is not helping the GOP at all). I think the best chance that the Dems have is in NC. Look for the DSCC to throw some cash the way of whomever wins the Primary. A 60 seat majority is by no means out of the question.

"Any body want to guess how the D majorities will work with each of the D candidates as Prez?"

I suspect one of them would display a similar style to the WH-Congress relationship from 2002 - 2006. The other one, I'm not certain.

Let's say, put it this way:

VA, NM, CO and NH go blue this time, the Dems have 55.

So let's look at potential turnover states.

MN- Norm Coleman isn't a particularly skilled politician, he's lost multiple statewide races including to Jesse Ventura, and is an accidental Senator. GOP strategists might think that they can tar Franken. I wouldn't count on it. On a 1 to 10 scale this is at least 8 for the Dems.

ME: Maine is a state the trends blue, Collins has done everything she would have needed to in a neutral environment to keep the seat. Its not a neutral environment, and she facing a skilled challenger. Make this one a 6.

OR: I don't sense a great deal of enthusiasm for dumping Gordon Smith. This is not a great race for Dems now, but that could change depending on who is at the top of the ticket. 4

AK: With Stevens on the ropes, the Dems have a once in the lifetime opportunity. Will they be able to take advantage? Who knows. 5

The potential extra seat would have to come from one of the following: WY-B, MS-B, TX, KY. Of the bunch, KY and MS would be the most likely, but the field would have to be a 2.

What are the stats on 1980? I know Reagan swept in a lot of Republicans who didn't have a chance. While I agree it is a long shot, an Obama oratory-based candidacy combined with a poor economy has a chance of replicating something like that.

Here in Oregon, Gordon Smith is oh-so vulnerable.

But now the two Ds are so busy tearing each other apart, it looks like Smith could beat the wounded survivor of the D primary.

A familiar story.

The Ds willshould only need the 55-45 split in the Senate and the 30 vote margin they are likely to have in the House to have a workmanlike four years with President McC.

Nothing spectacular. Probably a compromise on taxes that will lower the corporate top tax rate and raise the exemption on the estate tax, while closing loopholes like the oil industry credit; while both removing the AMT and repealing tax cuts for the wealthy.

Nothing spectacular.

Probably some immigration reform.
Probably an attempt to deal with ballooning entitlements. Probably an end to policing the Iraqis, but not an end to our presence.
No war with Iran.

This all because McC and a D majority will settle for half loaves.

Any body want to guess how the D majorities will work with each of the D candidates as Prez?

Chris, you're speaking a little early and even that is based on wishful thinking. Let's assume Hillary is the nominee. Assume either the Party hacks okay Florida or Michigan or throw enough Super Delegates her way to win the nomination. My quess, based on conversations with Obama supporters, is you will see a mass walkout of them at the convention and a series of nationwide protests that will be like nothing else witnesses...ever (not even 1968). Expect the disenfrangized black voters to stay home or even vote Democratic. Same with the youth vote, educated voters, just about everyone but illegals, feminists, and the ratbags from various public employee unions. That isn't a winning combination! The black vote isn't coming back. Hillary's comments and tactics and the uglier of her supporters comments are *daily* fare on black talk radio. 90% of blacks are angry at Clinton and the Democratic swine in charge becasue they wont stop her, even appear to be giving her support. Right now, it is even a bt late for an Obama nomination to fix this mess. The soap opera crowd, the bed wetting security moms, and the fire breathing, man hating feminists, wont vote for Obama, and are likely to run off and pout somewhere (good riddance!) and issue dire warnings about coat hangers and back ally abortions (not to worry, ladies, coat hangers aren't made of wire any more. Due to Cltinon's outsourcing they are made of safe soft plastic...in China!). In the end, the wheels have come off the wagon. It is too late.

On the MN race, the clear favorite to face Coleman is Franken. HOWEVER, the rank-and-file DFLers that determine whom will receive the party endorsement - which Franken has pledged to abide - have been known to produce a surprise or two. Former professor/activist Paul Wellstone kindof came out of nowhere, back in the day. In that vein, some are saying it is too soon to count out Prof (and DFL* activist) Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer in the endorsement race.

* Democrat-Farm-Labor party, AKA Minnesotan Democratic party

bsimon, the joker is wild.

To extend the playing card metaphor, what's the deal with that joker in Idaho?

I guess the in=fighting is not so bad after all- looks like the Democrats and Obama are doing just fine!

Obama vs. McCain- The Internet Indicators:

http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/viewarticle.php?articleid=48

60 is a filibuster-proof majority only if every senator is in attendance and there's complete party unity. How often does that happen? Depending on the issue, moderates in both parties might vote with the other side. Especially since one of the "Democrats" is Lieberman, who votes with the Republicans on national security.

Holding 60 Senate seats is better than holding 59, of course. But it's not like 60 is a magic number that gives total control. The Democrats will gain enough seats to often have a filibuster-proof majority, even if they don't reach 60.

One odd case is North Carolina, where the Democrats are really mounting no significant challenge to Elizabeth Dole. She's been a real non-entity in the state over the last six years, and had a truly disastrous two-year run as the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

And yet no significant NC Democrat has filed to challenge her. This is definitely a missed pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

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