I was wondering, if the Democrats have say a 55 to 44 lead after the votes are tabulated this November. What does the DNC do with Joe Liebermann, cast him adrift or let continue to caucus with the Dems?

North Carolina (Hagan (D) v. Dole (R) at least deserves to be number 6 on the list. For one thing, Hagan is at least as competitive as Al Fraken and Merkley/Novick are to Norm Coleman and Gordon Smith respectively.

She didn't have to go through a competitive primary like Merkley/Novick are and she doesn't have the amount of baggage/high negatives Franken brings with him. Along with Alaska, I think NC has the potential to be the real sleeper of this cycle.

NEW HORIZON, SHARD LOVE FOR ADULT HUMAN MALES/FEMALES RELIGIOUSLY APPROVED EPIC PRINCES DRAUPADI STYLE BY W R?

NEW HORIZON, SHARD LOVE FOR ADULT HUMAN MALES/FEMALES RELIGIOUSLY APPROVED EPIC PRINCES DRAUPADI STYLE BY W R?

NEW HORIZON, SHARD LOVE FOR ADULT HUMAN MALES/FEMALES RELIGIOUSLY APPROVED EPIC PRINCES DRAUPADI STYLE BY W R?

NEW HORIZON, SHARD LOVE FOR ADULT HUMAN MALES/FEMALES RELIGIOUSLY APPROVED EPIC PRINCES DRAUPADI STYLE BY W R?

What about Texas?? The Rassmussen poll of 5/1 whowed the race at 47-43. Pretty darn close for this arly in the day.

Republican Bob Schaffer got off to a wonderful start "introducing" himself here in Colorado.

His first commercial had him in front of Mt. McKinley -- instead of Pikes Peak. The Dems had a ball using that to highlight Schaffer's shallow roots in Colorado.

In the same way that Obama cannot deliver the final blow to Clinton, the Democrats never really conquered Congress -- they simply squeaked in within statistical sampling error.

You can cross Louisiana off the Republican lists. Sen. Landrieu has positioned herself as a moderate Dem, leaning slightly right, but she has brought the Federal bacon, fighting for every dollar from Washington. Her no-holds-barred fight has gotten raves from the Louisiana media, including the New Orleans Times-Picayune and she enjoys the support of many Republicans, as well. She's a lock against Kennedy and anyone else the Republicans think can beat her. They better look elsewhere; they're wasting their time and money.

I think you're (still) selling Franken short, CC. Minnesota wants to get rid of Coleman, the GOP "cheerleader" in the Senate. Even if polls show a closer race than you'd think, Franken will end up taking the win, I have no doubt.

Oregon Senate: Novick's Quest

While making a Costco run the other day, a fellow commented about my Novick for US Senate bumper-sticker, saying, "We can't have a little one-armed Hobbit representing Oregon in Washington (DC)!"

Choking back my initial reaction of "*#%#!," I was seized with the image of Steve...... as Frodo Baggins....with Novick having the quest of righting wrongs, defending the powerless, making things better for all.... and that's how I framed my reply to the "image" concerned commenter.

Novick may be short in stature and an unlikely hero, but he has the guts, brains, and desire to make a difference for the good. As U.S. Senator, Steve Novick will serve our state and nation with the persistence, wit, intelligence, and focus that's brought him so far in life. Yes, Novick may just be a real-life Mr. Frodo!

I'll take 4'9" tall hook-handed Novick, with his great heart and brains, over any of his rivals, especially over the tall, handsome, empty-suited current Republican incumbent. As a 26-year Army vet, I know where Novick stands on Veteran's Affairs and giving those returning from Iraq and Afghanistan the care and respect they deserve. Novick knows the challenges of our disabled vets; he's lived some of them himself.

I cheer Novick's quest for making taxes equitable and ending the breaks for the rich, who pay 15% on their stock incomes, while the working class pays much higher on hard-earned wages.

I'm a now teacher, and I agree with the Oregon Education Association, which has endorsed Novick for US Senate, because of his deep understanding of our national needs in shoring up our learning power. Novick won't just tell us what we what to hear, then become a fat-cat Washington politico. He will team with Ron Wyden and make Oregon proud through effective government, not talk.

This fall, Novick will be in a bow-wave of Democratic Party senatorial candidates who will win elections so legislation long delayed by Republican obstructionists can move forward. Health care, investigations of war-profiteering, education funding and reform, veteran's benefits and care, putting teeth into green collar innovations and taking on global warming issues that benefit our economy, ending this bloody, bank-breaking war of choice in Iraq...there is much to do. With Novick's vision and spirit, he is a leader who can move us forward on so many issues that really matter.

Bring on the orcs and ring wraiths, I trust Mr. Novick to do the job!

When the abuse of power and the shallowness of the money grubbing republicans are exposed in the general election. When the complicity of the republicans in congress in the subverting of our american constitution, is revealed to the electorate of the entire united states, the american people will rise up as one and will throw the rascals out of office and our insane president will be impeached for crimes against humanity!
The campaigning by the democrats in this general election should beam the light on all of the subversiveness by republicans in their attempt to overthrow our democracy! If they do not they would deserve to loose the election!

Is there a reason besides tradition that the line is exactly ten? It seems to me that once you get past the top 5, numbers 6 through 13 are about equally competitive. I'd expand the list by adding TX, MS (Musgrove), and KY.

ID and NE don't make the line yet, but don't lose sight of them completely. Either or both could turn out to be competitive.

Oh, Leicht and Lyle... Yeah. Right.
(Leicht is a Republican, Lyle is just losing it)

Leicht, have you ever been to Colorado? Yes, Colorado Springs (El Paso County) is heavily R with a strong social conservative element. The don't "end up breaking at the end R" ...they're R the whole time. Pueblo, however, is even more heavily D...they never break R beginning, middle, or end.

But guess who has the highest statewide registration? Independents, like me (R 2nd, D narrowly 3rd). Ds have won all the statewide races lately (and both houses of the state legislature) by winning over the Independents.

CC, I have New Mexico and Colorado tied at 2nd, not much different than you.

Schaeffer is affable and friendly (and honorable--who else kept a term-limits pledge?), but definitely on the far, far right wing of his party. As a Rep, he was a favorite of the James Dobson crowd (think Huckabee's statement about how he wants to change the Constitution to match the Bible).

Schaeffer received the nomination as a reward to a good soldier, only after Dick Wadhems' pleadings to every electable Colorado Republican proved in vain. None of them (especially former Rep Scott McInnis, a far more moderate R), would run this cycle, because they all saw it as a career-ending loss.

That said, Ds don't have a slam-dunk winner on the scale of VA. They would have had they considered recent results and nominated a centrist like Gov. Ritter or Sen. Salazar. Mark Udall is a skilled politician and campaigner and has that great name (and eyebrows to prove it!) but he is further to the left than most moderate Colorado Ds (but not nearly as far to the left as Schaeffer is to the right).

In a normal cycle this could have been a competitive race. Unfortunately for the Rs, this isn't a normal cycle. As much as Schaeffer will try to renounce his ultra right-wing past, he's stuck with it. Being unable to recognize Colorado's most famous mountain in a wall-size photo didn't help (his initial 'let me introduce myself' commercial showed Alaska's Mt. McKinley while he said "I proposed to my wife on Pikes Peak"). It's the Abramoff connections, however, that will really sink him (leading to the whole Rove/DeLay 'Permanent Republican Majority' thing).

In November, Udall comfortably over Schaeffer, probably by about 5-8 points.

Incidentally jnoel who is convinced that Sen Obama will win 49 states includind W Va, Ted Koppel said in San Antonio yesterday that it is McCain's election to lose so you Obama supporters need to wake up and get off of your high horse and stop presuming that you can just stomp your feet and that 48 per cent of the party will just line up behind your guy because you insist they must.

'Hillary supporters talk a lot about voting for McCain, but I do not buy it'

and yet you throw out more insults We live in Hillaryland?

Our 85 pct caucus memebers met this week and you with your arrogance won t like the results. 9 said they will support Obama, 23 will vote only downballot and the rest were mad as h*** and said they will likely vote for McCain

Read today s editorial By Froma Harrop Obama backers Mistaken in Rush to Pile on HC. Your campaign is totally insane if they think they can even show up in W Va much less win it and that they don t have a serous problem with 48 per cent of D voters.

We have warned your campaign for months to stop being ugly and yelling racists and evil old people. It is very obvious by your arrogance that neither you or anyone in your campaign has discovered that you won t win the general with 51 per cent of the D party and that some phony convention speech will mean anything at all. Keep living in your delusional world we are sick and tired of warning you what that attitude will mean.

Beleive it or not John Cornyn is only running 4% ahead of political unknown Rick Noriega. I think that there may be an upset brewing in Texas.

and you know this why? Perhaps b/c he did so well in W. Va.
bully, insult, and arrogantly presume we will line up for your GUY.
Posted by: Leichtman | May 16, 2008 4:16 PM

I know this because he isn't running against Hillary in WVA or any of the rust belt. You ignored my point, McCain has been given a free pass thus far. Hillary supporters talk a lot about voting for McCain, but I do not buy it. You still seemed totally convinced that the primary tells us something about the general, one more time: you are wrong.
In November, Hillary won't be on the ballot. And you can talk a lot about ideology and principle but voters will do what is best for them. And from the approval ratings I highly doubt that is voting for another Republican.
You speak of bullying and insulting from the Obama campaign and its supporters. And you act high and mighty as if Hillary's campaign and supporters haven't done the same thing to Obama and his supporters. But you live in Hillaryland where she and her supporters do no wrong. I understand some Obama supporters have been nasty, but that is emotion from a competitive campaign. That kind of back and forth happens every competitive campaign. You have taken everything far to personally. Obama is going to be forgiven by Hillary, Bill and their supporters, for anything that might have hit below the belt. Because they want the best for this country and they feel that whomever is nominated by the Democratic party will do the job. It is the entire point of having political parties and going through the primary process.

I have asked for someone with a calculater to add up the votes in the Primarires and not any help, maybe Hillary is CORRECT and The Media is putting out more FALSE information. I think Hillary would be leading, but the supporters of the other candidate does not want this information to be known by the public for it is contradictory to their spin and FALSE information being put forth.

"Certainly as an Obama supporter you love that system and see no problem with it.
Posted by: Leichtman | May 16, 2008 5:51 PM"

That is the most ridculous statement you've posted. I've admitted that I'm comfortable financially and yet I still support the candidate who will raise my taxes to benefit those who have been MOST disenfranchsied by Republican control of our government. I stand nothing to gain individually from an Obama presidency other than security for our country through an end to the Iraq war and a focus on the REAL threats to our way of life... i.e. corporate corruption, war profiteering, price gouging by oil compaies, etc... I won't be recieving any of his tax breaks and my employer provides an excellent health care plan at a very low cost. My father-in-law may benefit which will help us vicariously but I have time and again voted against my own "individual" interests. The caucuses may be unfair to some but so is the Superdelegate system and all we hear from the Clinton camp is how the SDs should give the election to Clinton because Obama can't win the white (racists') vote. Also unfair is signing a pledge to abide by the DNC rules regarding Florida and Michigan and then changing your mind when it suits your argument, an election with only one candidate on the ballot is not democracatic either. Too infer that Obama supporters are happy because other people feel cheated is absurd! Obama didn't create the DNC primary system, Clinton has been through two other presidential campaigns it's her own fault for not running her campaign better (I actually liked her before she started campaining). She could have done well in the caucus states if she had not, in her hubris, decided to ignore them and that the nomination was hers by divine right One last thing... I live in Maryland, a primary state... not a caucus state and Obama won here (and in our reddish neighbor Virginia) by a wide margin! Your primary system is Texas is completely F'd up... but don't blame me or Obama... and I won't blame you for Bush (much)

Christopheur,
Barack and Michelle Obama have NO idea what patriotism is! Listen to their words! And YES the World is watching America. And you think that Americans are going to elect an UnPatriot to be the President of this country! THINK AGAIN!

BD I have read his web site, position papers, books and traveled to Austin to listen to him. That is when I decided not to support him and why I do not feel he is qualified to be President.

Are you suggesting that Howard Dean and the DNC have not promoted aegism? Think again. Its offensive even if it works politically.

You don't like McCain great vote against him, but don't listen to the DNC or your supporters call him old and suggest he has dementia and don't be so naive to believe that if it doesn't come from Obama's mouth that that message is not being delivered by his campaign or the DNC. I will vote for Obama only when he starts practicing the supposed New Politics he dishonestly claims to champion and condemns the old politics by his campaign manager, staff and his supporters.

BD simple: most seniors who live in nursing homes or assisted living facilities have a difficult time leaving their facilities. My 92 year old mom voted absentee in the Tx primary but her vote only counted 1/2 b/c she couldn't leave her nursing home and especially an evening caucus. I presume you understand that there is a large segment of our society that are homebound; old, disabled, lack transportation. If they can't vote absentee they are disenfranchised. Call it what you want b/c it doesn't favor Sen. Obama or his genY voters. That should be the new test of the D party, do what most favors younger voters and screw the rest. How about single moms or the poor that have to work 2 jobs, do we not care if they vote? We have had that discussion here ad nausea but the caucus system is unDemocratic and rewards a smaller turnout by the most vocal supporters. Certainly as an Obama supporter you love that system and see no problem with it.

And this poll says it all. You won't believe these results!

http://www.votenic.com

Leichtman,
How do caucuses disenfranchise senior citizens? Aren't they more likley to be retired and to not have work obligations that conflict with the caucus event?

Obama won't condemn ageism? Has someone asked him to? I've listened to quite a bit from every candidate and Obama has time and again refused to engage in personal attacks... he has criticized McCain for policy decisions but I have never heard him say McCain was too old to be president, or accused him of suffering from dementia nor have I heard him embrace such comments. Can you find me a clip from a Town Hall meeting or interview where he was asked to condemn those statements and refused? Don't let Bill O'Reilly and Rush Limbaugh define Obama... listen to him, read his position papers and then, if you still don't like him vote for McCain... but whatever you do vote your interests... don't vote based on rude bloggers and Faux news/Right Wing pundits!

BD obviously you wrongly presume that it is only the super rich who earn capital gains. Many retired and seniors pay their living expenses off of their capital gains and they are not hedge fund managers or multimillionaires. Many boomers looking to retire are in bond ladders who will be hit hard at 28%, are not multimillionaires as you suggest.

"Why should a hedge fund manager pay a lower percentage on his $25 million than the lowest ranks of our military" Why not 20% that is a 33% increase not a 90% increase is Sen Obama proposes.

Doubling or near doubling of capital gains is not necessary and will harm many who have high medical bills and $4,000/month nursing home costs since you seem to want to relate to seniors. Are you calling those seniors wealthy hedge fund managers?

"good DUDE, you used spellcheck DUDE! what are you 10 DUDE?"

Don't need spellcheck, but it helps to not be an idiot.

But congratulations. You got "dude" correct as you pointed out four times.

Anyways, don't get so worked up. Just you obviously didn't know how to spell the word and now you do.

ML that looks like a maybe 5 seat pickup. You presume that you win in every state where you are behind. Noreiga has less than $1 million; his opponent close to $8 million. Franken has a much better chance simply b/c he already has name id(that costs millions to establish) and b/c of the makeup of Minnesota that always trends D in a Presidential election year while Tx is just the opposite. And that is not great news that Udall is only up by 3% points in Colorado b/c there are large numbers of cultural conservatives in Pueblo and Colorado Springs that usually end up breaking at the end R.

And just a suggestion for next weeks house line: We might glean alot more if you did most endangered incumbents rather than all seats, because analysis for these changes little and we don't get good analysis for truely competitive races. My suggestions would be
1. Lampson D-TX
2. Young R-AK
3. Fossella R-NY
4. Cazayoux D-LA
5. Walberg R-MI
6. Boyda D-KS
7. Reichert R-WA
8. Kuhl R-NY
9. Carney D-PA
10. Hayes R-NC

good DUDE, you used spellcheck DUDE! what are you 10 DUDE?

one more way to communicate that your campaign truly cares about seniors. How about a presentation by Sen Obama to the DNC that says the rules favoring caucuses need to be changed going forward b/c seniors and the disabled are discriminated against when it comes to cacuses and while those are the 2008 rules the D party and the Obama campaign should not tolerate that problem going forward. It certainly helped him disproportionately with his base of supporters but discouraged participation by seniors. So either end caucuses totally or find a way that seniors can enter an absentee preference in any future caucus.

As to the aegist complaints I believe that it is Howard Dean and not a bunch of bloggers promoting that age is an election issue. Many find that to be offensive and especially when comments are made that maybe John McCain has demensia or alzheimers. Again Sen Obama could publicly state he condemns such statements, period, but he won't.

First off, Democrats picking up only 2-4 seats is way off. I'd air on the side of 5-10. Some may say this is too optimistic, but look at the seats in play by (my) order of competitiveness:
1. Virginia: Rasmussen Reports poll Warner+18
2. New Mexico: SUSA poll Udall+24-26
3. New Hampshire: Rasm. Reports Shaheen+8
4. Colorado: Rasmussen Udall+3
5. Alaska: Research 2000 poll Begich+5
6. North Carolina: Rasm. Poll Hagan+1
7. Minnesota: Rasm. Poll Franken -7
8. Oregon: Rasm. Poll Merkely -3
9. Texas: Rasm. Poll Noriega -4
10. Maine: Rasm. Poll Allen -10
Note that it Oregon, Texas, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Maine Democrats have been gaining tremendously in recent weeks, even if they are down by a few points or more, so wait for them to materialize into more competitive races.

"oh and his supporters mocking their opponent by suggesting that he has dimensia or alzheimers "

Dude, its DEMENTIA

BD: 20% in capital gains is enough; why 28%? How about comprehensive healthcare reform that doesn't leave out 15 million and panders to genY and allows AntiSelection practices that will saddle the rest of us with higher premiums so that college kids can decide they want healthcare when they end up in the e.r. And raising taxes b/w $107,000 and $200,00 in payroll taxes is not the brightest idea, opposing mtg lending reforms and scoffing at $70 in gas taxes reduction would be a good start.
And referring to boomers and seniors as whithered and dinsaurs not smart.
Should I go on?

Posted by: Leichtman | May 16, 2008 4:44 PM"

Why not 28%... I pay MUCH more than that on the money I WORK for on my day job... I also earn capital gains from my side business and have no objection to paying a higher rate. Over the past 40 years the most wealhty 1% of the Amercian population has gained a larger share of our economic growth than the bottom 50%. Why should a hedge fund manager pay a lower percentage on his $25 million than the lowest ranks of our military pay on their $20K. Not one of the health care plans presented by any candidate will get through congress in it's present form, and there is no reason to believe that Obama would not work members of Congress to come up with a plan that will work for everyone. His plan is just a starting place. Your sentance about payroll taxes, mtg lending reforms and $70 savings in gas taxes rambles and runs on so it's not quite clear what you're trying to say... who are you saying needs to scoff at $70 gas tax reductions? If you can send me a link to the video of Senator Obama calling seniors and boomers withered dinasaurs I'd be happy to watch it... if you read someone else making that statement on a blog... what does that have to do with Obama?

"oh and his supporters mocking their opponent by suggesting that he has dimensia or alzheimers also not a smart way to relate to seniors who have family members who have to deal with those real ailments which also afflicts 40 and 50 year olds like him.
Posted by: Leichtman | May 16, 2008 4:49 PM"

Sure, base your vote on what a bunch of anonymous blog posters say... good thinking!

any poll taken for or by the daily kos (tx and ak) i wouldnt put any stock into just yet, although i believe stevens will lose and should. i am a conservative saying this too. i always havent thoungt much of dole and would not be suprised if she lost. also i know it's a bad year for the gop but if anyone thinks that johanns is going to have any sort of trouble with kleeb must be a die hard liberal, its not gonna happen. same with inhofe in ok.

oh and his supporters mocking their opponent by suggesting that he has dimensia or alzheimers also not a smart way to relate to seniors who have family members who have to deal with those real ailments which also afflicts 40 and 50 year olds like him.

BD: 20% in capital gains is enough; why 28%? How about comprehensive healthcare reform that doesn't leave out 15 million and panders to genY and allows AntiSelection practices that will saddle the rest of us with higher premiums so that college kids can decide they want healthcare when they end up in the e.r. And raising taxes b/w $107,000 and $200,00 in payroll taxes is not the brightest idea, opposing mtg lending reforms and scoffing at $70 in gas taxes reduction would be a good start.
And referring to boomers and seniors as whithered and dinsaurs not smart.
Should I go on?

"If Obama is the presumptive nominee he needs to start working on his attitude toward those who are older than him. Most of us are still strong enough to mpull an election machine lever.
Posted by: Pat Kittler | May 16, 2008 9:12 AM"

What part of his current "attitude" toward his "elders" do you find objectionable? Is it the part where he says he plans to eliminate taxes on Social Security for those making under $50K or his plan to make health care available for everyone equal in quality to the plan congress enjoys (with NO disallowances for pre-existing conditions). Both of those sound great to me as my wife and I care for her father who has severe diabetes. His health care costs are more than $20K (through his co-pays, primary and supplemental insurance premiums) a year and he pays a higher tax rate on his SS benefits than Peter Angelos (lawyer and owner of the Baltimore Orioles) does on his millions! By the way, you don't automatically deserve respect for being older... you earn respect for your conduct and accomplishments. I know grade school children who deserve more respect than Geroge W. Bush.

Rhandi Rhodes was just put back on the air. Maybe she would like to make more slanderous and disgusting proObama remarks against HC.
And these are the unfiying voices of the Obama campaign.

correction.. military influence in N Carolina and Virgina around their largest population are called Hampton Roads.

JNoel002: I have to disagree. Obama was and is the weakest of the original Dems considered viable from the start. Hillary was considered the strongest by Repubs and that is why The Media and many Repubs went to such great lengths in their efforts to deny her the nomination for their "Fear" of her in the GE was they thought/KNEW THEY COULD NOT BEAT HER IN THE GE.

heck, sounds fun. i'd like one too. how much?

"seniors will still be voting for Obama. Write this down: It doesn't matter how much time Obama spends in WVA, he is going to win WVA. He is going to win the rust belt, why? Because he is a democrat and the primaries are just about over. He isn't running against Hillary in the General, he is running against McCain. Obama is also going to win VA and NC "

and you know this why? Perhaps b/c he did so well in W. Va.

And you do not not know what you are talking when you say I KNOW THAT SENIORS will be voting for Obama. Certainly none of them in my mom's nursing home will, and as to boomers, you truly underestimate the anger they have with YOUR campaign.

You presume that all will be forgiven and that everyone will just sing cumbaya come Nov b/c Sen Obama has been such an absolutely wonderful and unifying candidate. Once again that has been the attitude of every Obama supporter here over the last 2 months. Bully, insult, and arrogantly presume we will line up for your GUY. Why b/c you are entitled to our support. Don't hold your breath and keep posting that those hicks in W Va and southern Ohio will agree with you. And apparently you understand zero about the military influence in N Carolina and N Carolina, as you presume that all it will take are college students singing in harmony.

"lets not give the dems the ability to get 60 seats so that they can raise our taxes.
a good bill is one where both sides agree, not just the dems.
Posted by: dwight | May 16, 2008 7:46 AM"

Do you make more than $250K a year? If you do you SHOULD be paying more taxes... if you don't then you are deluded to think that the Republican't machine gives a sh!t about you. The Repugs will lower your taxes by sending your job to China or Inida and giving that extra money to their Wall Street cronies... you won't have to pay any taxes at all on the money you won't be making!

I am glad to see Liddy Dole on the list. I have thought since she appeared on MTP and made a complete fool of herself she would be a target, although it would be unthinkable in an overwhelming "R" state to go Dem in the Prez race, the Senate is an entirely different matter. Alaska is ripe for a Dem pickup, and Sununu is toast. The Magic 60 is well within reach but with Obama as the Dem nominee, I can see a net loss even in the House where so many Repubs are leaving. Obama is a disaster waiting to happen for Dems.

Leichtman, once again you refuse to think about what the landscape will look like come November. You can talk all you want about GenY antagonizing seniors, seniors will still be voting for Obama. Write this down: It doesn't matter how much time Obama spends in WVA, he is going to win WVA. He is going to win the rust belt, why? Because he is a democrat and the primaries are just about over. He isn't running against Hillary in the General, he is running against McCain. Obama is also going to win VA and NC because despite what you "believe" the demographics in both states have changed. NoVA has out grown the rest of the state and is solidly Democratic. Hampton Roads (Southeastern Va) has a very heavy military population who are not thrilled with McCain--turnout is going to be lower. NC has experienced a similiar demographic shift since 2004. I still don't see McCain being very competitive in the General. Currently, he is out polling the Republican brand, but for how much longer? Now that the Democratic primary has wrapped up, and more attention is paid to McCain, can he still continue to fair better than the party he is representing? Time will tell, but I doubt it. Obama is and always has been a stronger General election candidate than Hillary. Obama wins more independents than McCain, which McCain needs since he can't energize the Republican base; mostly because McCain isn't running against Hillary.

I would slide Minnesota down the list -- and put Rick Noreiga versus Cornyn up the list.

Rasmussen is showing this as a 47-43 race which suggests that it is competitive. Bush's approval numbers in Texas are above the national average, but that still puts him in the 40 percent range. Few Senators are as closely tied to Bush as Cornyn -- so even in Bush's adopted home state, this one could flip in 2008.

I'd also add in reference to the Alaska numbers the polling numbers for the contest weren't commissioned by DailyKos -- those numbers come from Rasmussen which has been fairly accurate this election cycle.

madhatter: You are on target, and I have had these same thoughts since January of this year. I have also talked with hundreds of folks over this period of time and have yet to find one, Yes ONE, that think Obama can win the GE. This "IDIOT-Ology" by the "Far Left Wing" of the Dem party seems to be HELL BENT on losing The White House again in 2008. Myself, and a number of friends who consider ourselves to be in the Moderate mold, as most voters are, cannot and will not Vote for Obama once we learned for sure these BAD things about him that I have had this "Feeling" that there was something BAD Wrong about this guy, since the first time I saw and heard him speak and I still get this "Feeling" every time even now that I have been Proven ACCURATE about this "Feeling".

Excellant reporting I must say. However, aome of these comments I find abit off the mark. Like the media some of these writers have not recognized the genuine revulsion this country feels for Bush and the Republican Party although I do think many Conservatives as well as the GOP itself know what is going to happen in 2008. The Democrats will take the White House no matter who they nominate and it will be a landslide (Heck, I won't be surprised if they take Texas) and they will take upwards of seven seats in the Senate as well as an additional thirty in the House. There is no need to parse the races. This is what is going to happen. All you need do is turn off your TVs and radios and maybe even stop reading the paper and go out on the street and ask ten people at random, or 20, or 30. They want change and in 2008 it is the Dems pure and simple.

The guy who said the Dems would pick up maybe one or two seats, that is an alternative universe where there are still a few people that think Bush did a good job.

jnoel lets see how much time he spends in W. Va, you are delusional if you think he will be competitive in W Va or Fla, and I said Ohio which I spent 2 months working in 2006 will be problematic, primarily b/c of the southern rural belts that Strickland connected with but will not relate to Obama. Lets see you win without Fla where he is 15% points down, Ohio and W Va. Rendell will barely care him over the Pa finish line so you better run a straight in states like Va and N Carolina, traditionally conservative and very military states.

Once again you are putting all your eggs in the genY vote. Good Luck with that, they tend to really antagonize quite a few boomers who are straying from the party.

In Oregon, either Novick or Merkley would be better than the Bush-loving Smith. The Merkley campaign has been week and Novick is certainly a character. It's just not clear if a 'Mad Dwarf with a Hook' can take on cover-boy Smith. Still, with the enormous numbers of newly registered and motivated Democratic voters and the general, and justified, malaise among Republicans, I think the chances are better than they've been in years to give Wyden a Democratic junior Senator.

Oregon:

Gordon Smith is running attack ads that mention Merkley by name, which seems strange that the primary isn't decided yet. It's a flip of the coin if Smith attacking Merkley helps him or not.

Smith ran an TV spot trying to link re-electing him as "change". If it went over with the public twice as well as it did in our house-hold, it was a tremendous flop and we won't be seeing it again in our market (western Oregon).

If he (Smith) doesn't start doing *much* better than that, then he'd better hope that eastern Oregon (the more rural/conservative part of the state) turns out to be loyal Bushies and mindlessly vote their party. Still a long way to go, but there you are.

I've a tendency towards Novick, just because he's a little bit different than Merkley.

Think a lot of folks in N.C. are after 8 years of w finally coming back to the democrat party.Libby Dole has done nothing for the state and has walked lock step with w.Hagan is an excellent candidate and the dems should take every state office as usual.

zouk writes
"most of the bloggers here predicted that Edwards would coast to victory."

I remember those days. There were those idealistic sorts who predicted the easy coasts to the nomination by Edwards or Giuliani, the ridicule of the moderates rooting for Obama and McCain. Ah, the good old days...

Sounds like another Dukakas strategy for disaster jnoel.
Posted by: Leichtman | May 16, 2008 2:18 PM

I do not know where you are coming up with this "magic" formula, but I certaintly didn't say it. Leichtman, Obama is not throwing away states just because Hillary wins them in the Democratic Primary. You are still erroneously comparing primary results to what will happen in the General Election. Not smart. Do you really believe working class voters will vote for John McCain and more failed Bush economic policies? I also do not see how Obama is writing off Florida or Pennslyvania, your are just pulling stuff off the top of your head. You are still thinking that November will appear exactly as today--which is not anywhere near correct.

All I was implying was that Obama's strength in the upcoming election is not in an increased AA turnout/support. Because as you correctly stated they have strongly supported Kerry/Gore in the past two elections. However, I do believe the difference in this election will be seen in the youth turnout, which will be overwhelmingly for Obama. You also say that the youth vote isn't reliable, past results have indicated as much. But it is not intelligent to assume that past results reflect futures returns. As the primaries have shown college age voters are turning out, in waves, for Obama. Kerry/Gore did not connect with young voters the way Obama does. I believe this will be a major part of the difference in this election to the past two. Not only will more young voters vote (I think the percentage nationally will mirror the percentage of elderly voters), they will vote heavily in favor of Obama.

Those of us in VA who lived through the Gilmore years cannot wait for November to see him thrashed into oblivion (hopefully for good) by Mark Warner. Gilmore made a huge mess and Warner cleaned it up. What else needs to be said.

I am guessing 20 points at a minimum for victory spread.

What, you don't think the Senate race in Texas is going to be top 10 news? I got a surprise in store for you then. Rick Noriega is going to beat unpopular Senator (R) John Cornyn this fall. Watch and learn.

Wade

the funny thing is, most of the bloggers here predicted that Edwards would coast to victory.

Posted by: kingofzouk | May 16, 2008 2:10 PM

And exactly where is that comment coming from? I WAS an Edwards supporter and never felt he had a serious chance at the nomination as did most of his local supporters. Was there a point you were trying to make? Coast to victory?

so let me understand this. The D party is throwing overboard seniors, women (the most reliable turnout voters) hispanics and boomer voters, insulting them and claiming they are no longer impt to the D party and should simply leave, b/c the D party has decided that they will rely on genY and college students who have not turned out in 2 consecutive election cycles and are convinced that increasing the AA turnout from 89% to 92% is the magic formula for winning the 2 oldest population states of Fla and Pa, writing off Ohio, Fla and W. Va and understanding that McCain is not only native to the SW but acceptable to the largest new voting group in all of the SW(hispanic voters), Ca and Texas, and that is your winning formula? Sounds like another Dukakas strategy for disaster jnoel.

as for Noreiga I sincerely hope he wins but we have seen this show before with an unknown gubenatorial candidate who spent $70 million dollars against Rick Perry and lost by 15% so I wouldn't get your hopes up in Texas especially with Obama depressing the hispanic turnout here.

the funny thing is, most of the bloggers here predicted that Edwards would coast to victory.

Upset: MISSISSIPPI

Musgrove edges out Wicker, riding an Obama record turnout by African-American voters

Mark it down

MarkinAustion/KOZ: Agree the strike will come before Jan 09, but I still think it will be this summer. Both Bush & Israel are committed to denying Iran nukes(wisely so)and I just don't see Israel holding back much longer while they have somebody in the WH who understands the world as it is, not like he wants is to be (Obama) notice how the dems totally overreacted to his comments in the Knessent. The have a right to be touchy in this area becasue the are wimps when it comes to National Security.

Coleman R-MN has refused to return campaign momney tied to the Myanmar Junta. Plus, the state GOP have tax payment problems of thier own. It appears both candidates will have to deal with the deadbeat taxpayer label.

Let's see Fix, Clinton and McCain have the Red Neck, Dumb, KKK vote to split in the election, Obama has the rest.

All of this other commentary is just so much smoke and ego.

Chris--Excellent work but you need to take Texas more seriously for the Dems. Somewhere between 10,000 to 15,000 Dems will arrive in Austin for the state Dem convention the first week of June. I will be in the crowd. It will be a big boost to anyone that has a change to win. Noreiga is dull but may luck out over Cornyn due to a renewed Dem party in this state. I think you may want to take Kleeb a bit more seriously, too.

This will be the biggest realigning election since 1932 , possibly bigger. A lot of what we in Michigan call Milliken Republicans will make up their mind to flat out leave the Republican Party. Some racist Democrats will leave the Democratic Party, but the Democrats will come out far ahead.

Bhoomes, I would not dismiss your dire scenario at all. One explanation for denying the diplomacy that his own SecDef lauded earlier in the same American working day is the notion that Cheney, and not Gates and not Rice, has GWB's ear.

bhoomes - the strike on Iran will come after election day but before swearing in.

I am sure that we will all be blown away at the number of incumbents who lose on election day. The three recent races the Republicans lost are a sign of things to come. People are fed up. But, the Democrats better beware, it looks like one of those years when no one is safe. It points to a great Democrat year but there is a distinct throw the bums out mood everywhere. Also, the huge increase in registrations of Democrat voters in many states will have profound effects. Remember Bush and Kerry in 2004, several swing states were decided by a few thousand votes, Iowa and New Mexico come to mind. Democrats and Independents are very motivated. Also, in the recent Republican primaries, McCain is still losing 25% of those who turn out to vote. Bob Barr running as a Libertarian will definitely siphon away McCain votes. Georgia, his home state, could prove interesting anyway. Barr would probably do well in other Southern states, and with Obama getting record turnouts in these Southern states with Black voters, who knows what the map will look like. The Mississippi senate race with Sen. Wicker running against a former Democrat governor will be a surprise Democratic pickup. North Carolina is another Democratic pickup. Dole just kinda walked into the state and ran and won, but she isn't overly popular. Remember what a bust her presidential campaign was? If conservative voters stay home, the Texas and Oklahoma senate races get interesting.

bsimon writes
"there could yet be a surprise in the MN race, and not from Ventura."

Yeah, Al Franken could surprise us all and actually pax the taxes he forgot to pay in 17 different states, and the wokers' comp insurance he was supposed to pay for his employees too, while he's in this newly altruistic mood. Funny how that coincided with his run for the Senate.

My opinion of the Land of the Loons isn't so bad if they dump this loser. You know it's bad when even Jesse Ventura calls Franken a "carbetbagger".

Who knows, by November the political landscape will be totally different. Expect a War this summer with Iran, Bush is not in Saudia Arabia about oil production, he's there to inform them of the upcoming surgical attack on Iran by Israel. Politically, Bush can not strike Iran at this time, but the coutry would be with him to come to the defense of Israel.

Obama at the top helps out Dems everywhere. Downballot, increased turnout by Obama's groups, specifically blacks, may help Musgrove (a former governor, by the way) in Mississippi and Hagan in North Carolina (in what would be a competitive race regardless).

Youth voters around the country are energized, and remember this is the first election the generation born between 1983 and 1990 will also be a force in politics. This generation is acutally larger than the Baby Boomer generation and seems to be more civically minded and participatory than its preceding generation. This group leans heavily toward the Democrats, so if Obama does increase their turnout it may result in surprises in Senate races all around the country, not only in North Carolina but potentially in places like Idaho and Texas (why is Texas not on the line yet???).

"That is what is so amazing about Obama's campaign is that he doesn't appear on the surface to be relying on bundlers or big fundrasiers for donations. He has recieved a large quanitity of fairly modest donations. "

I think the Washington Post has shown that a good number of these donations comes from bundlers.

Obama will be an anchor in swing states -- ME,MN,NH and AK Senate races become closer than they should be.

With regards to Minnesota (I actually live there), Franken has not been given the nod just yet. Jack Nelson Pallmeyer is still running for the DFL nomination. Please be a little more thorough in your research, Chris.

Also, Coleman won because our sitting Senator died tragically in a plane crash about one week before the election.

Coleman, much like Pawlenty, is not that popular in Minnesota, despite what you continue to think. Pawlenty couldn't even deliver MN for McCain. You might recall that Mitt Romney won.

Just sayin . . .

"The AA vote is solidly behind Sen Obama b/w 90-93% almost exactly the same that supported Gore and Kerry..."
Posted by: Leichtman | May 16, 2008 12:41 PM

You are exactly right, the difference in this election won't be AA, they have supported the Dem candidate solidly in the past. I think the biggest gain will be in the youth(18-29) vote which I think will rival the percentage of elderly vote and be overwhelmingly for Obama.

I am not sure how much impact Obama will have on downticket races, but the special elections seem to indicate he will not be an anchor and may assist to some extent.

When people hear more about this scandal, this list may grow a bit. http://acropolisreview.com/2008/04/senate-democrats-investigate-taxpayer.html

Leichtman's point is a good one -- and should be expanded on -- Obama will likely lose b/c he turns off as many voters as he recruits. And his coalition is one that notoriously does not show up in November. College students, new voters and African Americans were going to win for Kerry and Gore and neither of them showed up.

I wore a flag pin, before I refused to wear one, before I wore it again.

and you thought Kerry was a waffler.

Can I just eat my waffle?

Jen's point is a good one - there could yet be a surprise in the MN race, and not from Ventura.

Folks here in Minnesota are starting to take a closer look at Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, Franken's rival for the DFL nomination. With Jack as the DFL candidate, the race could be about issues like creating a clean energy economy, fixing our health care system, and embracing effective foreign policy. The debate would be about the issues. Given the contrast between Coleman's abysmal performance on these issues and Nelson-Pallmeyer's passion and promise, I think the race moves up the line.

Patrick you have really drunk the kool aid as a new Obama supporter. The AA vote is solidly behind Sen Obama b/w 90-93% almost exactly the same that supported Gore and Kerry and I can direct you to those numbers if need be. Those numbers are only marginally better of their 16% of voters. Since 2000 and 2004 the Hispanic population has exploded, especially in the SW and in swing states. I was merely responding to an Obama supporter's absolute claim that that the AA voting block will make the difference in Nov, imho only marginally and if that is what you are counting on you will likely be seriously disappointed.

The GOP is going down HARD thanks to the Strategy of Cheney, the Management Skill of Rumsfeld, and the Policy Genius of our President and Confounder in Chief.

The anti-Bush tsunami will sweep Obama into office and a high tide of Congrssional Democrats will follow.

Republicans have now screwed the pooch with the Silent Majority, the Religious Right and the Neocons Foreign Policy Grand Design.

Hostile takeover by hardcore fiscal conservatives is next..... that is the GOP's only remaining true value. Look for them to rebound in 2020.

In Colorado, look for constant, bone-headed gaffes from the Schaffer campaign. He just introduced himself to the Colorado voters, by standing in front of an image of Alaska's Mt. McKinley, not Pike's Peak...ooops. Too bad all of the Colorado voters know what Pike's Peak looks like and take great pride in their mountains. Between his out of touch, extreme conservatism, carelessness and ties to Abramoff et. al, I think that Udall doesn't just have an edge. I expect him to emerge as a heavy favorite.

Look, sweetie, I am a very busy intellectual kind of guy. It takes work to project this false image 24/7. Now go bake me some cookies and iron my shirt.

By the way Chris, maybe McLame can check out Vanity Anonymous prior to November of 2008 but I doubt it. I love name calling and labelling people, it makes me proud to be a tar and feathering American. My advice to the Fix is not to abuse your tools.

Mc Cain will keep putting his foot in his mouth, witness his hypocritical remarks regarding Hamas. His "coattails" will drag the rest of the GOP down even further.

Look for a bloodbath.

Dems with a supermajority in the Senate?

Barack Obama not only has no coatails to get new voters come November, he'll lose voters to McCain.
* Since the D's get about 90% of the black vote anyway in every election, they gain nothing (if McCain nominates a black like say Condi Rice, he'll actually lose a lot of black votes).
The D's and Obama lose:
* Hispanics, who have a voting record of NOT voting for a black candidate over a non-black in all elections local and national.
* A lot of Jewish-Americans who normaly all vote for the D's but won't because most of them believe (correctly) that if Obama becomes president he'll cut and run, leaving Israelies to fend for themselves. They trust McCain to defend Israel, whereas Obama will probably appease and schmooze with Hamas, Iran, Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups from far away with threats but no actions.
* The pro and patriotic Americans who resent Obama's 20 year association and love affair with Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan and his clone and desciple Jerimiah Wright's anti-America rants. This and Obama's Weather Underground terrorist Bill Ayres friendship and Michelle Obama's hate-America put-down will lose a lot of votes for him.
* White non-liberal middle of the road working class Americans who believe (correctly) that Obama is a white-hating racist in sheeps-clothing because of his close ties and 20 year association with the white-hating racists Farrakhan and Wright.
* White non-liberal middle of the road working class Americans pi$$ed off at Obama's elite speech that he gave re. whites "clinging" to guns and god.
* Obama's total lack of any experience which could become dangerous to our country and our fellow citizens if something happens like a nuclear attack on Israel; another 9/11; a dirty bomb going off in one of our major cities, or something along those lines.
* Feminists pi$$ed off at the D's for passing up a woman president.
* Senior citizens who have an affinity with McCain.
There's more, but to heck with it. Obama's toast in the general and good riddance to a racist white and America--hater.

'You are aware that John Kerry won 89% of the African American vote in 2004 and so far Sen Obama is winning 90-92% of that same vote.'

I don't think it's fair to compare the % between the two, the fact that Obama is running will get so many new AA registered that the % of those in 2004 will not be relevant.

Anytime anyone talks about being weak, I know they must be talking about me. who else could it be?

I promise a five day work week for congress. Please be in your office no later than tuesday at 1 pm and you can go home by thursday at noon.

that is the new Dem math. 1 + 1 = 5

I also promise to eliminate earmarks. eliminate means to zero out. the math is as follows:

2 x earmarks = 0

Pelsoi is being blamed for oil speculators?
Let's see W and the neocons promised cheap Iraqi oil if we would just let W and Cheney invade Iraq; neocons opposed higher CAFE standards; neocons insisted that we continue to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at $125/barrel until recently embarassed by that boneheaded decision; W and the neconcons who coddle OPEC; W and the neocons who support vetos and filibusters of a small % of Exxon's $11 billion dollar obscene quarterly profit and returning it to consumers and neocons who have insisted on oil company tax breaks when those very oil companies have said they were not needed for exploration and that is Nancy Pelosi's fault?

We are going to lose the NH race b/c of Obama -- McCain is loved in NH and will carry Sununu who is always underestimated -- despite his ineffectiveness.

Hey rich people, get back to work. we just discovered some more rights and we need someone to pay for them.

Most Americans want a moderate government, and if that means a divided government, so be it. Therefore, with both houses of Congress assuredly going to the Democrats, the election of John McCain would suit the innate desire of most Americans for moderate governance.

We have had enough extremeism from the right, and we certainly don't want to replace that with extremeism from the left. We need to get back to a government with checks and balances, and that it why McCain's election is essential for the health of our political system.

The president could have been speaking of any number of Democrats. Say, Jimmy Carter, who in April, 2008 said: "Through more official consultations with these outlawed leaders [Hamas and Syria], it may yet be possible to revive and expedite the stalemated peace talks between Israel and its neighbors. In the Middle East, as in Nepal, the path to peace lies in negotiation, not in isolation."

Or Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, freelance diplomat, who in December 2007 said: "the road to Damascus is a road to peace."

Or, perhaps he meant Speaker Pelosi in April 2007: "I believe in dialogue. As my colleagues have said over and over again, unless you communicate, you cannot understand each other. You cannot reach agreement."

Or maybe he meant recent Obama endorser and former North Carolina senator John Edwards, who, according to his own press release in February of last year, believes "the U.S. should step up our diplomatic efforts by engaging in direct talks with all the nations in the region, including Iran and Syria."

Or Bill Richardson, who has said, about meeting with Iran and Syria: "They're bad folks ... But you don't have peace talks with your friends."

It could have been about Congressman Henry Waxman, who in April said: "A Democratic administration would go back and try to open that possibility up for discussions [with Iran] of a grand bargain of one sort or another ... Democrats would certainly have seen that as a missed opportunity."

Or Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich: "I can go to Syria. I can go to Iran and work to craft a path towards peace. And I will ... How can you change peopled minds if you don't meet with them?"

Or former Democratic presidential candidates and senators Chris Dodd and John Kerry, who met with Syria's al-Assad and said: "As senior Democrats on the Foreign Relations Committee, we felt it was important to make clear that while we believe in resuming dialogue, our message is no different: Syria can and should play a more constructive role in the region ... We concluded that our conversation was worthwhile, and that ... resuming direct dialogue with Syria should be pursued."

Or the former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, from April 10: "[Diplomats] can deliver some pretty tough messages ... You don't begin with a president of the country, but you do need to talk to your enemy."

You get the idea. The world does not actually revolve around Barackstar. It doesn't even revolve around contemporary Democrats. There are two very different ways of looking at the world, represented by the two parties here in the U.S. President Bush, obviously, believes the other party's approach is wrong. To say so, in his mind, was of historic importance, for obvious reasons. Obvious, at least, to any statesman who can see before and beyond this current election season. Thank you, Senator Obama, for helping make clear where you stand on that front.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MDkwODhkY2Q5NzZhYWYwY2I1NDAzN2VjMzMyZTMwMDE=

It's way bad for R's out there - they are in panic mode:

'But the numbers point to some dramatic action. In recent days, two polls put Sen. Elizabeth Dole's Democratic challenger within striking distance of her in North Carolina. Another poll showed Democrats gaining on Smith, a moderate who appeared to be escaping the heat of the election year. Even Sen. John Cornyn, one of Bush's closest allies and a fellow Texan, may be feeling some heat from state Rep. Rick Noriega, a veteran of the war in Afghanistan.

"We haven't hit bottom yet. I've never seen members so frustrated or demoralized," former House majority leader Tom DeLay (Tex.) said in an interview.

DeLay and former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) have been issuing calls to arms to their former troops. But even they disagree on the steps needed to reverse their fortunes, with Gingrich demanding an emergency meeting of all Republicans to craft a new agenda. Gingrich is offering unusual proposals such as reforming the Census Bureau and the Federal Aviation Administration."

LOL- I mean, I'm sorry--what? Reforming the Census Bureau--now there's an issue to set the electorate on fire and turn out the vote. The problem is, the republican agenda favors the wealthy and hurts the majority of the population. The majority has finally figured that out.

No amount of 'branding' or superficial tinkering will change that.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/14/AR2008051403611.html?hpid=topnews

it was 751 days ago when the soon-to-become House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, running for re-election in California, said: " 'Elect us and we will produce a common-sense plan to help bring down the price of gasoline at the pump.'

"Unfortunately, the price of gasoline at about the time that she took office as speaker of the House was about $2.33 a gallon, I believe. And now, of course, it is about $3.75 a gallon."

Beware Lib campaign promises. you usually get the opposite.

I suspect the DFL muffed the punt when they decided to encourage Franken to challenge Coleman in MN. This year is the perfect year to present a competent, principled candidate to challenge a weak Republican (Coleman), but they picked the guy with name recognition running for his first elected position. All we need is for Ventura to act on his threat to enter the race to complete setting the scene for this tragi-comedy.

Re: Stonecreek's prediction of a 57-seat Dem majority in the Senate, and his query regarding procedural matters (i.e. Republican fillubuster politics): How will Republican strategy be affected by the upcoming 2010 Senate election landscape. Specter, who is over 70 and in poor health, is up for reelection in 2010, and Ed Rendell, who will have completed two terms as Governor, could challenge him, if Specter does not retire. Similarly, Sebelius would be hitting the end of her 2-term limit and could thus challenge one of the KS Republican senators (I know one is up for reelection in 2010, but I just don't know which one). Oh, and Janet Napolitano would similarly be term-limited in 2010 and thus could challenge John McCain's seat, assuming that he is neither elected President nor retiring. (I see the latter as more likely.)

Also today, TWO new Senate polls from NM and Alaska have amazing news for Democrats who lead these high-profile races: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/senate-diary-gop-trouble-extends-to.html

Also today, TWO new Senate polls from NM and Alaska have amazing news for Democrats who lead these high-profile races: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/senate-diary-gop-trouble-exte

All I want is to toast Joe Lie-Berman in 2009. As long as they pick 5 more seats, this voter would be really happy. In fact, I could care or less, who wins between McMan or Obaman.

Threadjack alert:

Surprising that the liberal/Democratic-slanted WaPo hammered Obama and praised McCain this morning

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/15/AR2008051503706.html

I would include expecting the unexpected as well considering Lincoln Chafee (sp) was upset in 2006. That was a real dissapointment to me. Just shows how the tide can take anyone out.

About time NC made it here for discussion. let me tell you Chris, the Tarheel State is not as conservative as you think, you should come down to the triangle, or the great city of Asheville sometime, and see for yourself. The political face of the South is going to change drastically over the next 20 years, and the epicentier of this shift is right in the heart of North Carolina.

Mark my words...NC will be critical this Fall, and will be a true game changer, and if for some bizarre reason it is a close election, don't be surprised to see NC deliver the White House to Mr. Obama. Furthermore, Dole is out...I promise you that.

Even die-hard Republicans are giving up the ghost for this election.

The bottom line is...the Republicans have been so awful, and don't seem to have a clue why, that NO ONE wants to claim they still support them. It's embarrassing.

"The black vote will be instrumental in getting Obama elected said dave."

You are aware that John Kerry won 89% of the African American vote in 2004 and so far Sen Obama is winning 90-92% of that same vote. A repressed Hispanic vote and women's vote will more than offest that extra 1-3% of their 16% but unfortunately no one bothers to mention that or the fact that a large % of that vote is concentrated in states like Miss, Alabama, Georgia and S. Carolina where he will not be competitive, although Obama supporters are convinced that those states are now in play.

Great job Chris. It's a nice break from the usual presidential headache. The fact that 9 of 10 are GOP's is amazing. I feel that the next effect on the Congress will be who the VP choices are. Many seats in both houses will be thrown from those voting down.

Too many people do not even know who their reps are, let alone the issues. The Obama wave could throw out many who would have fared under other conditions.

I think besides the scandal hurting Stevens, both he and Dole could be hurt by the age factor along with McCain. The contrast of the youth vote is going to be as much a factor as the race one will be.

On Maine and Collins,
Rhode Island fired Chafee, and he agreed with the voters' logic and rationality. If you want different policies than the party-in-power, you do not vote for their candidates, regardless of how well liked they are. Frankly, if she switched parties, she'd win with 80+% of the vote, I suspect.

addendum-
You might add AK to the mix but I think LA is areal tossup due to the demographic change of the state caused by Katrina so there is a possibility of a 7 seat gain

I think the Dem will pick up 6 seats -VA, NH,MN,NM,CO,OR! Isn't Smith R - OR a cousin of Udalls D - CO,NM

It's true about Maine. Even some Democrats are reluctant to oust Collins because they think she has done a good job. When pressed on this, they cite her excellent work on behalf of individual constituents.

My counter-argument is that Allen is every bit as effective with constituents as Collins, and his vote is more often in line with their preferences. But they are extremely reluctant to turn out someone they personally like, even if it means turning out Allen who has also served them well.

Early predictions for turnovers:

Virginia (foregone conclusion, and Obama takes it, also.)

New Mexico (done deal)

Colorado (the polls are closer than the election will be.)

New Hampshire (Shaheen will unhitch successfully from Clinton)

Oregon (Demo tide is too strong for Smith to overcome.)

Alaska (too much Repub scandal)

North Carolina (Nobody ever really thought that much of Ms. Dole, and Obama will make a real run at this state, making all of the downballot Dems stronger.)

No Change:

Minnesota (Franken is too much a novelty and will wear thin by the time of the election)

Louisiana (always overrated as an R takeover)

Maine (Despite the Demo trend, Collins is independent enough to ride it out)

If correct, this makes a net of 7 for the Dems. Subtract the Liebster, and you've got 57/43. Forty three Rebubs is just enough to make Senate procedure interesting.

Given the climate and the current numbers, I would be surprised if the Dems don't pick up at least 8 seats. The black vote will be instrumental in getting Obama elected and the turnout will be incredibly advantageous to the other Dem candidates on the ballots. Because well over 90% of blacks will vote for Obama and because they will turnout in huge numbers to vote for this historic occasion, it's hard to see how this won't be the worst election day for the GOP in modern history.

Oh, and while Mark Warner is virtually a shoo-in, his is still TMOPIA (The Most Overrated Politician In America).

Ditto the comment about focusing "down ticket". Not enough info has circulated on Congress, with this "historic" presidential election taking front and center. Interestingly, some very important legislation is to come to a vote this summer. Touted as "environmentally friendly" it is simply a smokescreen on the part of GOP candidates to have something that appears positive to show on their records come November. Votes on continued Farm subsidies, the rolling back of clean air standards in our National Parks to enable new coal mining, and the very weak "global warming" bill are but a few coming to a vote, all stopping short of instituting the kind of changes necessary to protect the future of our nations natural resources, our planets health, as well as our own. Even the candidates with the worst environmental records are coming out in favor of some of these bills. That alone should be a wakeup call that something is wrong with them. Would love to read further articles on the stands of the candidates in these hotly contested races. Will candidates hailing from areas supported by big oil, coal, farm, and MIC companies prove to be stronger environmental allies to Democrats from other states, when their votes might conflict with the interests of their constituents?

Upthread: "And I'm still casting wistful, wishful glances at ID, OK, KS, and NE. In a true wave election, one or more those would become competitive."

Scott Kleeb is an excellent candidate in Nebraska who lost narrowly in his House run in 2006.

And don't count out Idaho, either. Larry LaRocco has been running hard for a year already, while his presumptive GOP foe Jim Risch continues to assume the seat is his by birthright. But the fact Risch is in an eight-way GOP primary indicates that he's not especially popular. Risch refused to debate LaRocco when they ran against one another two years ago for lt gov, and now he's even refusing to debate his GOP foes.

One of these days, Idahoans will see Risch's arrogance for what it is and try a Democrat for a change. As a veteran (Risch has no military service) and a former two-term Congressman who'd take that seniority with him, LaRocco may be the first Idaho Dem since Frank Church to join the Senate. Full disclosure: I worked with LaRocco to help launch his campaign last year.

I would not count out Maine yet, since Allen has hardly started campaigning and has a ton of cash. As for a reason for getting rid of Collins, consider her vote to confirm Alito and Roberts to the Supreme Court. In a strongly pro-choice state like Maine, this is the potential wedge that Allen needs.

The fact that New Hampshire, where incumbent John Sununu is already down by double digits,is only the 4th most likely GOP seat to change hands demonstrates how dire the situation is for Republicans in the Senate right now. As for the race getting closer, anything is possible in politics, but that's the same thing people were saying about Rick Santorum two years ago, and that didn't happen.

Collins, Dole, Smith, Coleman & Stevens are fairly safe in my book. All these incumbents are running for re-election and should win. Maybe not as easily as they should due to the current political climate, but they all should win none the less. Republicans will play offense in New Jersey & La. Landrieu is a tough politician and she will run for re-election hard. It will be a tough race, but from where I'm sitting, I think she is in great shape to win re-election at this point. The Lautenberg vs. Andrews D primary in NJ opens a door for former Rep. Zimmer. That is possibly the R's best pick up opportunity. Not that NJ is very likely to go R, but that is a testament to Landrieu's toughness as an incumbent. I agree with your assessment of Sununu in NH being a great candidate, CC. McCain being on the ballot in NH will help him greatly as well. Plus, Shaheen is not as great a candidate as the democrats build her up to be.

Now the 3 seats that are likely to really change hands, the open seats. Colorodo, New Mexico & Virginia (that one's all but gone for R's). If John Warner & Pete Domenici didn't have health problems and could run for re-election, Democrats would only have 1 great pick-up opportunity. That's not the case, both Domenici & J. Warner are retiring. Dems. got their dream candidate in Va. in Mark Warner, who will easily crush Gilmore...assuming Gilmore wins the R nomination. If Marshall does, the race may actually be more competitive than a M. Warner vs. Gilmore. But Warner is still very, very likely to win. In NM., after the Pearce vs. Wilson primary the winner will make NM competitive. Especially with McCain polling well in NM & Domenici getting behind & campaigning for the eventual nominee hard. But Udall has a family name & fundraising credentials that won't quit & has an automatic head start on this race, making him the front runner. In Colorodo, this one is actually tip for tap. It's a traditional conservative vs. liberal battle. This is the best chance of the 3 open seats for R's to keep, and it won't be easy either.

Math: I think Democrats pick up 2 seats. They are definately likely to pick up the Va. seat. I think they will win in NM, but the race will tighten & we will see.

It's "Tar Heel" -- the only state Bill Clinton targeted (twice) and lost (twice). But maybe Obama will be able to capitalize on favorable demographic trends since 1996 and improved turnout.

THE WORLD (EUROPE, CHINA, RUSSIA, SAUDI ARABIA, SOUTH AMERICA)

THE WORLD IS WATCHING AMERICA'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
THE WORLD IS WATCHING AMERICA'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
THE WORLD IS WATCHING AMERICA'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
THE WORLD IS WATCHING AMERICA'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
THE WORLD IS WATCHING AMERICA'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
THE WORLD IS WATCHING AMERICA'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
THE WORLD IS WATCHING AMERICA'S 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.

AND THE WORLD WILL JUDGE IF AMERICA IS SUITED TO BE ITS MORAL LEADER.
AND THE WORLD WILL JUDGE IF AMERICA IS SUITED TO BE ITS MORAL LEADER.
AND THE WORLD WILL JUDGE IF AMERICA IS SUITED TO BE ITS MORAL LEADER.
AND THE WORLD WILL JUDGE IF AMERICA IS SUITED TO BE ITS MORAL LEADER.
AND THE WORLD WILL JUDGE IF AMERICA IS SUITED TO BE ITS MORAL LEADER.
AND THE WORLD WILL JUDGE IF AMERICA IS SUITED TO BE ITS MORAL LEADER.
AND THE WORLD WILL JUDGE IF AMERICA IS SUITED TO BE ITS MORAL LEADER.

This is a pivotal time in American history.

Will America run a dignified 2008 presidential election?

Or will America allow Hillbillies take over the media and orchestrate the message of hate that will shock the watching World?

A barrel of oil was $24 when Bush took office.

It's time for America to nationalize Oil and the Energy Industries for National Defense.

Rich Oil billionaires and Wall Street (super-capitalism) selling out Our Country for their own selfish profits is unpatriotic and treason.

America belongs to Americans and not to Wall Street sell-out super-capitalists.

Hillary does not appear very patriotic staying in a loss race strictly to gather more money to store in her $109,000,000 favor money chest that she and Billy received from South American cartels.

Is Hillary working for