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Primary Predictions Redux: The Mountain State Primary

In the run-up to the West Virginia Democratic primary, the Fix asked Fixistas to predict the outcome of the race and the next day's storyline.

Pollsters called Sen. Hillary Clinton's win, but few members of The Fix community accurately nailed the exact margin between Clinton and her rival, Sen. Barack Obama.

At the end of the night, Clinton easily defeated Obama by more than 40 points -- emerging with 67 percent of the vote to Obama's 26 percent.

Our winner, as selected by post.com politics producer Sarah Lovenheim, is t. long who missed Obama's mark by a mere point, guessing Obama would secure 28 percent of the vote, rather than 27 percent. He/she missed Clinton's 67 percent result by .5 points, predicting Clinton would finish with 67.5 percent.

As for the storyline, many Fixistas were right on target but one prediction stood out for keeping it concise: "Clinton claims 'game-changer' victory, says that no Democrat can win in the fall without West Virginia. Obama congratulates her, and "Dream Ticket" speculation abounds." ---JakeDM.

Winners: Send your preferred t-shirt size and mailing address to me at chris DOT cillizza AT washingtonpost DOT com. Losers: There's always tomorrow -- literally. Keep an eye out for the Oregon and Kentucky primary prediction contest in this space tomorrow morning.

By Sarah Lovenheim |  May 19, 2008; 5:09 PM ET  | Category:  Eye on 2008
Previous: Managing the Obama-Clinton Merger | Next: Kentucky and Oregon Primary Predictions


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Comments

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What's the value of The Fix if Chris only passes on uncritically the assertions and memes of the Clinton campaign? Their tilting at Florida and Michigan windmills only delays the effective date of unifying the Democratic Party and sustains the contentiousness that Clinton has used to create the impression that she still has a chance to be nominated -- which would be true only at the cost of fracturing the party beyond repair.

Posted by: Tribunus Plebis | May 22, 2008 1:31 PM

Listen to The Crazy John McCain Song or download for FREE at http://www.johnmccainusa.com

Posted by: Crazy John McCain Song | May 20, 2008 10:47 PM

Ok... fun

Oregon:
Obama 54
Clinton 46

Kentucky:
Clinton 62
Obama 38

Headline: Clinton scores big victory in Kentucky. Margins closer than expected in Oregon. Nothing changes. Obama edges closer to 2025.

Posted by: Diane | May 20, 2008 1:32 PM

KY:
Clinton: 65
Obama: 35

OR:
Obama: 57
Clinton: 43

"Clinton tones down the rhetoric, signals it's over, but will stay in it until June 3rd. Both candidates switch focus to defeating McCain."

Posted by: TNSlim | May 20, 2008 11:33 AM

Kentucky

CLINTON 52 OBAMA 38 EDWARDS 10

Oregon

OBAMA 56 CLINTON 42 EDWARDS 2

Posted by: Sparky | May 20, 2008 11:02 AM

Come on, Chris - let us non-guessers buy that T-shirt!

Posted by: ambolt | May 20, 2008 4:57 AM

KY - Clinton 56 - Obama 42
OR - Clinton 46 - Obama 54
Storyline - Clinton claims victory in KY, says she will keep fighting. Attacks Bush/ McCain, no attacks on Obama, no mention of the white, working class vote, vows to support the eventual nominee
Obama claims victory in Oregon, gracious towards Hillary, focuses on the general election rhetoric.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 20, 2008 12:21 AM

Posted by: | May 19, 2008 11:33 PM

OR:
BHO 58
HRC 41

KY:
HRC 64
BHO 32
JE 2

Storyline: Barak claims OR victory, urges Dems to unite, Hillary claims KY, says not so fast. The race goes on, but the finish line is in sight.

Posted by: s | May 19, 2008 9:17 PM

I share your pain t-shirt no receiver. Heck, after picking the right margin I didn't even get listed as a winner...

scrivener - are you really so drunk at 7:30pm that you believe this crap?

Word of advice: tune in for Obama's speech tomorrow night from Iowa. Just watch.

Posted by: Boutan | May 19, 2008 8:38 PM

Do not expect T-Shirt from CC. I won three primaries. Yet to receive even one T-shirt from him even after several emails.

Posted by: | May 19, 2008 7:53 PM

Has ANYONE considered the fact that all of the delegates/super-delegates are going to Barack Obama because they know he is young and inexperienced and they can CONTROL him? I really like him (although I voted for Hillary).......but, he's just a figure-head for all of these politicians in Washington. The reason they are moving from Hillary is that they know they CAN NOT control her. She is her own person and knows how the game is played. You can't "play" her. I'm afraid that Obama can't beat McCain, but Hillary can. Hillary should be President and Obama her VP so he could gain the experience and "know how" in dealing with Washington politics......I know he said he was going to change everything, but; I'm sorry folks. Who are we kidding.........Those are just words. He won't be able to change Washington. They are just going to eat him up and spit him out by doing all that they want. And, he won't have a choice but to "give in"....I think someday he will be a FINE President.......Not just now.

Posted by: Stuart | May 19, 2008 7:53 PM

HILLARY TO SURPRISE WITH OREGON SQUEAKER

Obama will win, but by a razor-thin margin


His huge crowd this weekend notwithstanding, Obama's about to receive a big Hillary surprise as she loses by only a hair's breadth in tomorrow's Oregon primary.

Voters want another choice. Not necessarily Hillary -- but tomorrow, that's all they've got on the ballot.

So look for Hillary to capture 48 percent of the vote to Obama's 52 percent.

In Kentucky, Hillary once again will trounce Obama with a humongous 75 percent of the vote, to Obama's 23 percent, with the remaining 2 percent going to write-ins.

Obama's agitated over-reaction to Bush's "appeasement" remarks and to criticism directed at his wife once again demonstrates his thin skin and his inability to respond to political attacks with a show of strength rather than pique.

Voters are beginning to detect an empty suit here. Obama's dismissive attitude toward voters in West Virginia and Kentucky underscores his effete, elitist tendencies. Yes, the ugly spectre of racial politics has been injected into the primary contests. Had Obama shown some ability to counterpunch, he could have at once narrowed Hillary's margins of victory and also demonstrated that he's got the courage to campaign for votes among all blocs of voters, "red necks" included.

By ceding those two states to Hillary, Obama only perpetuates the racial narrative that he oddly has been unable to overcome since the early "post-racial" days of Iowa.

Obama has tried to pretend the primaries have been decided. He's straining to play the role of the anointed one. But the truth of the matter cannot be hidden by a thin patina of premature self-congratulation.

Obama is wearing the Emporer's new clothes, and voters are starting to see through the artiface. Tomorrow, Hillary's narrow loss once again will tug at his sacred robe, revealing a candidate ill-equipped for the coming fall battle.

And once again, the supers will nervously huddle and ask, "What do we do now?"

And once again, some will whisper the name that has become code for a "third way": Al Gore. That "unity" fundraiser could be his launching point for a presidential run when and if Obama's campaign implodes due to mounting skepticism that he can draw traditional Democratic voting blocs. A re-emergence of "association-gate" also may help doom his candidacy, leading to a Gore draft.

Posted by: scrivener | May 19, 2008 7:29 PM

How about the Fix hats ?


How do I get a Fix bandana ?


Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 19, 2008 7:14 PM

I sure hope Clinton doesn't drop out because I want my T-shirt! More contests = more predictions = more chances to win!

Posted by: theseventen | May 19, 2008 7:02 PM

To be a good sport, congratulations t.long & JakeDM.

Posted by: bsimon | May 19, 2008 5:58 PM

Once again, the dream dies.

Posted by: bsimon | May 19, 2008 5:57 PM

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