Clinton Still In The Race, But Faces Major Hurdles
Ever since Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) swept 11 straight contests between Feb. 5 and March 4, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (N.Y.) path to the Democratic presidential nomination has been a narrow one.
Obama's winning streak not only gave him momentum (and money) but also something close to an insurmountable lead among pledged delegates and the popular vote. While Clinton's wins in Ohio and Pennsylvania put off talk of just how perilous her path had become, the results from last night's votes have put the difficult task before Clinton in sharp relief.
Clinton's campaign made no secret that they believed she was on the upswing in advance of the votes in North Carolina and Indiana; they had hoped for a high single-digit win in Indiana and a close single-digit loss in North Carolina. Neither materialized, and the heavy weight of expectations overturned are being visited on the Clinton campaign today.
For now, her campaign is insisting she will continue on in the race. Senior adviser Howard Wolfson answered "no" when asked whether there were any discussions under way about her dropping out of the race.
Clinton told reporters in Shepherdstown, W.Va. today that "I'm staying in this race until there's a nominee."
But, that belief is not universally held throughout the campaign. "I believe there is no path to victory," said one Clinton strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly about the future of the campaign. "I also believe she wants to see a Democrat win in November and she will do the right thing."
Nor are there many among unaffiliated Democratic consultants who believe she is ready to bail out. "She is the Japanese soldier in the Pacific island that hasn't been told the war is over," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone. "Occasionally she picks off a few islanders and considers it a victory. Well, yesterday she found out the war was over."
It's clear that neither Obama nor his surrogates will try to push Clinton out of the race anytime soon. "It would be inappropriate and awkward and wrong for any of us to tell Senator Clinton when it is time for the race to be over," said Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.), one of Obama's most vocal supporters. This is her decision and it is only her decision."
As expected, the Obama campaign began rolling out superdelegate endorsements this afternoon. The first three announced: North Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, North Carolina Democratic National Committee member Jeanette Council and California DNC member Inola Henry.
So, what are the factors that would force Clinton to reconsider her decision to remain in the contest? In conversations with a number of party operatives this morning, three developments came up time and time again: money, superdelegates and senior statesmen/party officials.
Let's break these factors down one by one.
*Money: The biggest problem for Clinton going forward is how to continue to fund her campaign -- a vast operation that costs huge sums to finance on a daily basis. Clinton's second personal loan of the campaign -- bringing the Clinton's total investment in her race to more than $11 million -- speaks to the dire state of the campaign's finances. And, unlike when she made her first loan in advance of the Super Tuesday votes on Feb. 5, it is hard to imagine that this personal investment will spur donors across the country to dip into their own pockets. Donors, from the whales who give massive sums to candidates and causes to small dollar donors who cough up $25, want to be with a winner. Clinton could make the case after Feb. 5, when she notched wins in major states including California and New Jersey, that she was that winner; it's a much tougher sell now. As one unaffiliated Democratic consultant put it: "The price for her continuing is literally becoming too steep."
All of that is not to say that Clinton cannot continue in the race even if her fundraising slows to a near stop. She has comfortable leads in West Virginia, which votes next Tuesday, and Kentucky, which is set to vote on May 20, and neither state costs all that much to run a television campaign. Clinton could well claim victories in each of those states regardless of where she stands financially.
In a fundraising email entitled "Here's Why" and sent to supporters this morning, Clinton reiterated her pledge to remain in the race. "Today, in every way that I know how, I am expressing my personal determination to keep forging forward in this campaign," she wrote.
*Superdelegates: As has been repeated ad nauseam over the last 24 hours, there are now more undecided superdelegates than there are pledged delegates left in the remaining six contests. Given that reality, Obama's campaign is sure to put pressure on superdelegates leaning his way to come out and make their choice clear in the coming week. Gov. Janet Napolitano (Ariz.) put that sentiment bluntly on a conference call featuring Obama surrogates this morning. "It is now time for the superdelegates to begin bringing this process to a close and announcing their preference," she said.
Clinton did get a bit of good news on the superdelegate front Wednesday as Rep. Heath Shuler, whose 11th district Clinton won by double digits yesterday, threw his support behind her.
An avalanche of superdelegates to Obama would have both practical and symbolic importance. On the practical level, it would severely complicate Clinton's attempts to sustain the possibility, however slim, that she could overtake Obama in the final delegate count. Symbolically, it would provide a stern rebuke to Clinton's argument to superdelegates that she represents the party's best chance of defeating Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the fall and reclaiming the White House for the party.
As dangerous for Clinton as a stampede of undecided superdelegates to Obama is a series of defections among superdelegates currently committed to her. Clinton has done a masterful job of keeping wavering superdelegates in line despite the setbacks of the last few months. But as spring blooms and the her arguments about winning the popular vote or overtaking Obama in the delegate race become more and more far-fetched, the difficulty of keeping a united front increases exponentially. Already today, Clinton has watched as former South Dakota Sen. George McGovern, a supporter of the New York senator but not a superdelegate, has said it is time for Clinton to leave the race. If more of Clinton's supporters make similar calls, it will be hard for Clinton to keep on keeping on.
*Senior Statesmen/Party Officials: Looking for the most important date left on the nominating calendar? It's May 31, when the Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Committee meets in an attempt to (finally) decide the fate of delegates in Florida and Michigan. Clinton has long pledged to remain in the race until that quandary is resolved. But, in the likely event that the ultimate conclusion of that meeting is some sort of splitting of the two states' delegates (the most likely option), it will make it all that much more difficult for Clinton to make a case that a path exists for her to win the nomination. It well could be the final domino in a game that has gone on far longer than almost anyone expected.
The other part of the puzzle is how do the senior statesmen (and women) of the party, many of whom remain on the sidelines, handle the events of last night. If former Vice President Al Gore, former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) and others of that ilk decide that now is the time to step forward and try to bring the contest to a close, it could have a real impact on Clinton's decision-making process. (On the other hand, Clinton couldn't ever have expected to be endorsed by Gore, so perhaps it would be less of a momentous development than many people think.)
Make no mistake: Clinton can remain in this contest as long as she likes, and she resumed campaigning in West Virginia today. But, her path to the nomination has grown so perilous after last night's disappointing performance that if she collides with any (or all) of the hurdles we cited above, she may well have to finally pull out of the contest.
For the moment, the race continues on. But, for how long? And to what end?
By Chris Cillizza |
May 7, 2008; 3:20 PM ET
| Category:
Eye on 2008
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Posted by: Maddogg | May 13, 2008 8:04 AM
Now Hillary says she represents" hardworking white Americans". That sounds like a line out of a 1964 George Wallace speech.I just heard she turned down the proposal for seating Michigan that the Michigan Democratic Party had proposed for seating 69 Clinton/59 Obama.
Posted by: Majorteddy | May 8, 2008 10:33 PM
Why do people get accused 'racists' when they are speaking the truth? why is it that it is ok for 91% of the Blacks to vote for an AA and these Blacks are not called racists? If it is ok for the blacks, then it should also be ok for 91% of non-black to vote for the non-black candidate. Let's play by the same rule and Obama and his supporters should stop the double talk.
Obama's win in NC proves beyond any doubt that he is a racially-based candidate. He can't win the general election with just the blacks and the young. It would be another 'Tsongas' election! Clinton's win in Indiana, by a slim margin, also raises the big question why Obama lost a state that he is supposed to win!
Clinton also started out about 23 points behind in North Carolina, and 8 or 10 points behind in Indiana. She narrowed the gap in NC, and won in Indiana. Can you imagine what would be the headlines if the situation was reversed? probably "Obama trounced Clinton with a huge 2% margin". And she did it with Obama continuing to outspend her by 3 or 4:1.
The media continues to be anti-Clinton. Her win should be presented in the proper context of the quality of each of these candidates' electability!
Posted by: vote4thebest | May 8, 2008 9:13 PM
Words of Wisdom is svreader
The Washington Post should close this comment board. I've not seen ignorance like this since I made the mistake of watching "Fox & Friends."
Barack Obama will not only be the next President, he will also save YOUR ass from ending up living in a third world country that owes it's existence to China, Russia, and Venezuala.
The only thoughtful post here is the one copied by Micahel Moore.
Bu-bye, ship of fools.
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 9:05 PM
Top Edwards Adviser Endorses Obama, Ariel Alexovich, NT Times, 8 May 2008, 10:19 am, at http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/top-edwards-adviser-endorses-obama/
John Edwards's endorsement still eludes the Democratic candidates, but today one of his top advisers threw his support behind Barack Obama.
David Bonior, a former congressman and the national campaign manager for Mr. Edwards's failed bid, said Mr. Obama's "commanding lead" and "positive campaign" led him to his decision.
"Tuesday was a critical moment in this race," Mr. Bonior said in a statement. "Because Barack Obama continues to run a positive campaign that focuses on the issues that matter to ordinary Americans, he has won a commanding lead in this race, and I believe he can and will defeat John McCain in November. Now is the time to unite behind Barack Obama so we can end business-as-usual in Washington and fulfill our moral obligation to America's hardworking families."
Mr. Bonior also invoked his old boss in his official endorsement.
John Edwards ran a campaign focused on fulfilling a promise to America's working families that they could once again trust their leaders to put them first. As I look at the presidential race as it stands today, I see one candidate who has proven he can bring the kind of change to Washington that will mean more jobs, better pay for American workers, and health care for every single American. That candidate is Barack Obama.
This is a critical election in our nation's history. For too long, Wall Street lobbyists and special interests have blocked real change for hardworking Americans. Senator Obama is the candidate who can take on the Wall Street lobbyists and make sure Washington works for working families again. Senator Obama has been fighting for working families ever since he moved to Chicago more than twenty years ago to help turn around communities that were struggling after the local steel plants closed.
The Obama campaign will hold a conference call with Mr. Bonior later Thursday morning.
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 8, 2008 12:41 PM
Clearly, Clinton is no longer running for the "good of the country" but rather just to fulfill her blind personal ambition.
Also it seems she is now throwing a 3-year-olds temper tantrum while holding the Democratic party hostage, appearing to be stamping her feet and holding her breath till she turns blue.
IE; if she can't have the #1 spot, she'll DEMAND the #2 spot, so that she'll be have another shot at the Oval Office later.
Posted by: demforobama | May 8, 2008 12:23 PM
Quote: "Why? Well, she has said that she will do everything she can to support Obama in the general election, and allowing her the opportunity to bow out gracefully would give her supporters a reason to still be behind the Democratic nominee in November."
I'm sorry, she also said that she had to duck and run to her car in Bosnia when the pilot of the plane and the commander on the ground said she did not, that she helped with the Irish Peace Process when all those there said she did not. She said she was against NAFTA all along, when records show she was attending pro-NAFTA meetings in congress.
Can you believe what she says. No, she is a compulsive liar. Why would you believe that she would support Obama when she has done and is doing everything to help McCain be elected?
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 11:55 AM
It is very clear that Ms. Clinton is race baiting. By calling him unelectable she should just call him a n#####. What else is her excuse for embarrassing the party. She acts like she was the President as is running for re-election. Give it up! You lie to much,as I cannot trust a family who claim they made 50 million from speeches. That is called bribe money. America has spoken!
Posted by: crooks | May 8, 2008 11:53 AM
I'm an Obama supporter who surprisingly thinks that at this point, Hillary should just hang in there through the last primary. I do think the Supers need to start coming forth in substantive numbers (whether they be for Hillary or Obama) to give us the sense that we are moving towards an end game (though it would be a shame for the 2025 number to be reached before the last primaries as it would be nice for everyone to have felt that they were a part of the process in this unique cycle).
re Michigan and Florida: there needs to be some kind of a significant penalty or it will eventually make it impossible for the DNC to keep the primaries from being moved up and spread out even more than they already are. However, I can sympathize with an ultimate compromise, but, whatever they decide the vote proportions to be, they should only count by 1/2 like the Republicans (and I personally think the State Super delegates should be seated, but have no votes.)
Posted by: Shannon S | May 8, 2008 11:49 AM
The super delegates, in my opinion, will nominate neither Clinton or Obama for the good of the democratic party. The democrats have seen to that with their outing of what they consider to be wrong with their own candidates. You would think they were ranting against their opponent, John McCain. NO, instead they are placing both of their candidates in jeopardy.
All of this is moot if the super delegates do what is best for the party after the first ballot in the convention.
Now answer this. If all of this rhetoric is null and void, what has all of the past months taught us? The democrats are not voting for a candidate in the first place, they are voting for delegates. If super delegates can decide to do whatever they want at the convention, what has all this been about?? The republicans have none of this and have had a candidate for nearly two months, ready, waiting, and laughing all the way to the white house.
Why does the democratic party hate a winner take all primary with a passion? Is there a good reason? Why is it so complicated to vote democratic?
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 11:46 AM
Most Americans know that Washington is broken and government no longer serves the people because it is controlled by special interest groups who can buy policymakers.
The November, those who want a change will vote for Barack Obama. When 1.5 million Americans fund a campaign, it is the strongest evidence that Barack Obama can win the November. This base is made up of Democrats, Independents and Republicans of all ages, races and both genders.
So we can say goodbye to polarization and finally get the country moving again.
Hillary ran the race that most expected her to run. The tactics represent how elections were won in the past. Senator Obama used a different strategy, one that will be the model for future contests.
Now any talented candidate who does not have a deep base of donors, can get to the White House. This is what the founding fathers of America had in mind and our republic has become more democratic, thanks to Senator Obama's great performance against entrenched Washington thinking.
The winner is America.
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 11:37 AM
What a COMPLETE WASTE of money, Chris!
Posted by: KYJurisDoctor | May 8, 2008 10:18 AM
I had hoped that Hillary would be able to come back and justify taking the nomination by winning the popular vote. That seems very unlikely now, even with MI and FL. However, these calls for her to get out are short-sighted. Obama cannot win in November without getting the votes of those who were for Hillary. He certainly will get most of those voters, but he may need nearly all of them to win. McCain is the only republican that could win in November because he does have cross-over appeal. If Obama and his surrogates do not show respect to Hillary or her supporters, then they cannot expect to earn their votes.
Posted by: Edward | May 8, 2008 9:28 AM
This should be a very good year for Democrats but it appears that the DNC is screwing it up again by pushing hard for the wrong candidate.
Do you want REAL CHANGE? Then hear this... The McCain and Clinton ticket is probably the BEST and THE REAL DEAL to COME!!!
With this combination, McCain will have a better shot of winning PA, OH, FL, NJ, MA and even CA. The women's votes, the blue collar votes, independents, older people, and yes young Hillary supporters as well. With Hillary in the team, it will put our candidate in at a very meaningful lead position moving forward.
This will be a LANDSLIDE and UNSTOPPABLE COMBINATION!!!
Yes we're democrats but are seriously thinking of voting for McCain if Hillary doesn't win the nomination. If Hillary is with him so much the better. This will be a very strong ticket. As the exit polls show there is at least 40-47% of us, middle of the road democrats, who feel this way right now. Even if only 15%-20% of that is more than enough to win this election.
Unlike Obama, McCain and Hillary have very strong records of TRUE BIPARTISANSHIPS in the Senate, NOT ONLY IN WORDS BUT IN DEEDS!!!
What a very SOLID COMBINATION this will be.
SEN McCain show your maverick self and make REAL HISTORY...
Posted by: The Wiser Choice | May 8, 2008 8:59 AM
This should be a very good year for Democrats but it appears that the DNC is screwing it up again by pushing hard for the wrong candidate.
Do you want REAL CHANGE? Then hear this... The McCain and Clinton ticket is probably the BEST and THE REAL DEAL to COME!!!
With this combination, McCain will have a better shot of winning PA, OH, FL, NJ, MA and even CA. The women's votes, the blue collar votes, independents, older people, and yes young Hillary supporters as well. With Hillary in the team, it will put our candidate in at a very meaningful lead position moving forward.
This will be a LANDSLIDE and UNSTOPPABLE COMBINATION!!!
Yes we're democrats but are seriously thinking of voting for McCain if Hillary doesn't win the nomination. If Hillary is with him so much the better. This will be a very strong ticket. As the exit polls show there is at least 40-47% of us, middle of the road democrats, who feel this way right now. Even if only 15%-20% of that is more than enough to win this election.
Unlike Obama, McCain and Hillary have very strong records of TRUE BIPARTISANSHIPS in the Senate, NOT ONLY IN WORDS BUT IN DEEDS!!!
What a very SOLID COMBINATION this will be.
SEN McCain show your maverick self and make REAL HISTORY...
Posted by: The Wiser Choice | May 8, 2008 8:58 AM
With all due respect to this columnist, and considering that I am a staunch Obama supporter, it is my opinion that Hillary should be allowed to continue to the very end.
Why? Well, she has said that she will do everything she can to support Obama in the general election, and allowing her the opportunity to bow out gracefully would give her supporters a reason to still be behind the Democratic nominee in November.
As much as I despise some of her tactics and downright ugly attacks on Obama, they really are serving a purpose. That being they serve to make Obama a much stronger candidate against Mr McBush in November.
So, keep on keepin on, Hillary!!!
Posted by: CW-in-Wichita | May 8, 2008 8:19 AM
The problem with Clinton is that she feels that she is entitled to the White House. The Clinton's having ruled the Democratic party for so long. The Republicans have done so badly under Bush that she feels that it is a shoo-in for any democratic challenger and she has to be the one, even if most Americans do not trust her!
She needs to be in the White House to extend the Clinton dynasty. Obama has a longer history of serving the common folks. Most American's are smarter than Clinton give them credit for.
Posted by: Frank | May 8, 2008 8:04 AM
So far the great film maker Michael Moore does not have any good luck on presidential elections. In year 2000, he supported Ralph Nader, resulting in a narrow win by w. Bush over Gore. In 2004, Moore supported John Kerry, a war hero but also an elitist, who was beaten by Bush in both electoral and popular votes.
Posted by: austin c | May 8, 2008 7:57 AM
What a pity, the lack of foresight Democratic primary voters have. When Obama gets pulverized in November (like all far-left Democratic party nominees do), then America and the world will have to put up with McBush. Disaster. Oh well, Hillary 2012 - start printing your t-shirts now!
Posted by: MB | May 8, 2008 5:40 AM
Many months further and still the Florida and Michigan stories.
Next weekend take your little league team to the ball park where their fixture has been cancelled. Let them play for the afternoon, alone. Then suggest to the administrating powers of the league that despite the cancellation of the game you want the points because your team played on the playground. When they do not support your argument then suggest it is the fault of the other team not turning up despite the annullment of the game.
Whatever the future planned competitions in your little league games are, I would suggest that you organise the new FIXED RULES before the actual game instead of trying to change them in the middle of a game.
Sometimes I wonder about the adults? on this board. Seems to me you should all go back to kindergarten schools to learn the 3 Rs in life.
Posted by: noparticularaxetogrind | May 8, 2008 3:57 AM
I smell a rat. "Hillary Simply The Best" and "Obama and Caucuses" were written by the same person.
What is going on here. Sir, have you know shame?
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 3:39 AM
Hillary Simply the Best wrote:
Obama is not QUALIFIED to be President.
...if she doesn't get a fair shake and that includes the votes she got from Michigan and Florida.
The media and Howard Dean act as if Obama, by virtue of being black, has a higher claim than Hillary
Do this today and pass it on please. Time is running out.
Then I wrote:
Dude you really need to get a grip on reality. You don't decide if Obama is qualified, WE DO! The votes she got in Michigan and Florida are the most unfair votes she has gotten all year. Obama DOES have a higher claim because he is black. Didn't you get the memo? We all agreed to this last fall. Where were you? And as far as retribution goes I think we should TP his house and egg his car. Are you in?
And here is another shocker for you: Time has already run out.
I thought you had to be intelligent to be able to find these web sites?
Posted by: Can Just Anybody Vote? | May 8, 2008 3:34 AM
Clearly the Superdelegates do not want to go with Obama unless at the very end there is no other way to go.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom |
Any you know this because.....they told you???
Posted by: Patrick | May 8, 2008 3:17 AM
Clearly the Superdelegates do not want to go with Obama unless at the very end there is no other way to go.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom |
Any you know this because.....they told you???
Posted by: Patrick | May 8, 2008 3:17 AM
Hillary is DONE!!! But as usual, she won't bow out gracefully. Her only tactic left is to injure Obama as much as possible. A befitting conduct from a L-O-S-E-R!
History has a funny way of setting things straight. The once mighty Clinton "machine" is finally going down. All the shenanigans and lies are finally out for the world to see. Her credibility is totally shot and she finally knows how much people dislike her. For all of the negative publicity Obama received the past two weeks, it was not enough to change people's view for her. They still dislike her.
I just hope that New Yorkers will wise up and realize how pathetic Hillary is and not re-elect her in the next elections for senator of the state.
Posted by: carlos | May 8, 2008 3:11 AM
Hillary is DONE!!! But as usual, she won't bow out gracefully. Her only tactic left is to injure Obama as much as possible. A befitting conduct from a L-O-S-E-R!
History has a funny way of setting things straight. The once mighty Clinton "machine" is finally going down. All the shenanigans and lies are finally out for the world to see. Her credibility is totally shot and she finally knows how much people dislike her. For all of the negative publicity Obama received the past two weeks, it was not enough to change people's view for her. They still dislike her.
I just hope that New Yorkers will wise up and realize how pathetic Hillary is and not re-elect her in the next elections for senator of the state.
Posted by: carlos | May 8, 2008 3:11 AM
Hillary is DONE!!! But as usual, she won't bow out gracefully. Her only tactic left is to injure Obama as much as possible. A befitting conduct from a L-O-S-E-R!
History has a funny way of setting things straight. The once mighty Clinton "machine" is finally going down. All the shenanigans and lies are finally out for the world to see. Her credibility is totally shot and she finally knows how much people dislike her. For all of the negative publicity Obama received the past two weeks, it was not enough to change people's view for her. They still dislike her.
I just hope that New Yorkers will wise up and realize how pathetic Hillary is and not re-elect her in the next elections for senator of the state.
Posted by: carlos | May 8, 2008 3:11 AM
Yes, Obama did win eleven "contests" but the vast majority of them were CAUCUSES.
Guess what? There are NO MORE CAUCUSES left. And there are no CAUCUSES in the general that he can manipulate.
What will he do then?
Contribute to HillaryClinton.Com
THERE IS STILL SOMETHING WE CAN DO TODAY:
Right now, it is Obama and his supporters who are blocking any Michigan revote or Florida seating for that matter.
WE VOTERS need to write Howard Dean and our state superdelegates and convince them that we WILL NOT STAND for the contest to be stacked in favor of Obama because "his supporters might get upset". Hillary's supporters WILL GET UPSET as well if she doesn't get a fair shake and that includes the votes she got from Michigan and Florida. (The media and Howard Dean act as if Obama, by virtue of being black, has a higher claim than Hillary. Listen and you will hear this outrageous bias everywhere.)
If Obama gets his way, it will be all of us who lose since he will have NO chance in November without the support of Michigander and Floridian voters as well as angry voters such as me. We must promise retribution if Howard Dean and the credentials committee refuse to play fair.
Write congress.org and Howard Dean at [www.democrats.org].
Do this today and pass it on please. Time is running out and the Rules Committee is meeting at the end of May.
Posted by: Obama and Caucuses | May 8, 2008 2:38 AM
Obama is not QUALIFIED to be President.
Right now, it is Obama and his supporters who are blocking any Michigan revote or Florida seating for that matter.
WE VOTERS need to write Howard Dean and our state superdelegates and convince them that we WILL NOT STAND for the contest to be stacked in favor of Obama because "his supporters might get upset". Hillary's supporters WILL GET UPSET as well if she doesn't get a fair shake and that includes the votes she got from Michigan and Florida. (The media and Howard Dean act as if Obama, by virtue of being black, has a higher claim than Hillary. Listen and you will hear this outrageous bias everywhere.)
If Obama gets his way, it will be all of us who lose since he will have NO chance in November without the support of Michigander and Floridian voters as well as angry voters such as me. We must promise retribution if Howard Dean and the credentials committee refuse to play fair.
Write congress.org and Howard Dean at [www.democrats.org].
Do this today and pass it on please. Time is running out and the Rules Committee is meeting at the end of May.
Posted by: Hillary Simply the Best | May 8, 2008 2:34 AM
This supplements Loup-bouc | May 8, 2008 1:36 AM
Also, count former Clinton supporter George McGovern among those who switched to Obama (and entreated Hillary to drop from the race). Total: 5 in one day for Obama, and two defected from Clinton's camp, while Clinton gaines just one.
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 8, 2008 1:46 AM
"Words of Wisdom"
Not my major point, but really: I admire the sincere modesty of your nom de plume. It speaks volumes.
On to your argument about blue states/red states.
A Democratic Primary is not the same thing as the General Election. Solidly Blue states will vote for the Democratic candidate even if he lost in the state's primary. This is all the more true when he lost by quite narrow margins. Do you think NY, MA, and CA are going for McCain this year? Really? This is a simple concept, you shouldn't waste much time worrying over it.
Part of the reason the Democratic Primary is so fierce this year is that the candidates know that whoever wins it will win the general election. Seldom is a party handed the gift of a general election in the midst of both a serious economic downturn and an unpopular war. The Democrats could run Micky Mouse this year and win. That's why the campaign is so fiercely contested. The nominee is almost guaranteed the presidency.
Be aware too that things change. States that were not once Blue are ripe to become so. Colorado. Virginia. Obama is intensely aware of this and planned his campaign around it. Hillary staked her entire campaign on the idea that all she needed was early wins in Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, California, and a few other reliably blue states, and she was done. That's a narrow base. Huge miscalculation. Now she's forced to fight like crazy for Indiana. Not what she had in mind.
Remember, too, that she has almost always won states by very narrow margins. That's why she's in the pickle she's in. Even when she wins, it's just barely and doesn't result in a net surge in delegates. Obama is very popular even where she squeaks out a win.
Obama's support is quite deep and wide. Look at his donor base. Look at hers. It's wide and deep enough to crush an establishment candidate widely hailed as uncontested just a few months ago.
I would reverse your assertion about superdelegates and argue instead that if they wanted to go with Hillary, they would have done so long ago. The fact that so many have remained uncommitted for so long says much more about her than about Obama.
Posted by: drossless | May 8, 2008 1:44 AM
I am re-posting the following message, because earlier I neglected to "sign" it.
Concerning the blathering of Words of Wisdom and 37th&OStreet and my (and others') observation that Obama is gaining several superdelegates every day and that some are switching from Clinton to Obama but none from Obama to Clinton:
From Associated Press, 7 May 2008 -- at http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g90V8XQZSWr4K1yzT-vNrffP9wNQD90H03RG0
Obama picks up superdelegate support
10 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Barack Obama has won the endorsement of four new superdelegates helping push him toward the Democratic presidential nomination, including a backer of rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.
The support comes the day after Obama's victory in North Carolina and closer than expected finish behind Clinton in Indiana.
Among the supporters is Virginia's Jennifer McClellan, who used to support Clinton.
The Obama campaign announced three other supporters -- North Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, North Carolina Democratic National Committee member Jeanette Council, and California DNC member Inola Henry.
Clinton picked up another delegate in Rep. Heath Shuler, who said he would support whoever won his district in North Carolina.
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 8, 2008 1:36 AM
Concerning the blathering of Words of Wisdom and 37th&OStreet and my (and others') observation that Obama is gaining several superdelegates every day and that some are switching from Clinton to Obama but none from Obama to Clinton:
From Associated Press, 7 May 2008 -- at http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g90V8XQZSWr4K1yzT-vNrffP9wNQD90H03RG0
Obama picks up superdelegate support
10 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Barack Obama has won the endorsement of four new superdelegates helping push him toward the Democratic presidential nomination, including a backer of rival Hillary Rodham Clinton.
The support comes the day after Obama's victory in North Carolina and closer than expected finish behind Clinton in Indiana.
Among the supporters is Virginia's Jennifer McClellan, who used to support Clinton.
The Obama campaign announced three other supporters -- North Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, North Carolina Democratic National Committee member Jeanette Council, and California DNC member Inola Henry.
Clinton picked up another delegate in Rep. Heath Shuler, who said he would support whoever won his district in North Carolina.
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 1:34 AM
The reason neither candidate could close the deal is because for the first time I can remember we have two appealing candidates who both draw (a record?) amount of voters to the polls. Neither candidate is that much stronger than the other on the issues, they are both very good. As it happens, Obama has drawn just enough more to win with his well run campaign.
Its that simple.
Let's go beat McCain for the good of our party, country and the world in general, if we blow it then we are no better than the ones we criticize because we have the ability to win this election with Hillary or Obama.
Posted by: JR | May 8, 2008 1:27 AM
jaded
I came to the same conclusion.
After looking at the list, Washington State, Minnesota and Wisconsin were all won by Obama, however all of them have been viewed as more swing states than blue states.
Maryland is probably the largest blue state outside of Illinois which Obama has won.
What does that tell you??
If Obama does win the nomination, the support he has will be very unique in history, what he is bringing to the table is not what one would consider broad or wide.
Clearly the Superdelegates do not want to go with Obama unless at the very end there is no other way to go.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 8, 2008 1:02 AM
Words of Wisdom wrote
Obama has had three months to gain a final confirmation that he is the nominee - from the larger states that have gone since February, from a showing in a wider demographic profile - or from the Superdelegates endorsements which would put him over the top - specifically he needs 100 additional superdelegates.
====================================
Think about it, in the primary process which has developed, the leading candidate needs a confirmation or some re-assurance to put him over the top.
Words of Wisdom outlines three ways that Obama could have done that.
1) Win one of the big blue states not Illinois
2) Widen the demographic in the primaries - this is something Axelrod was talking about after Wisconsin - if Obama had kept up a wide, broad demographic we would not be here right now
3) Line up the Superdelegates - since mid-February everyone had penciled in a minimum amount of delegates Obama would win in the remaining primaries.
There was little reason to go through the motions and spend millions on commercials.
From that minimum delegate projection, one could easily project how many superdelegates Obama needed after mid-February.
Everybody did it. Everybody had a number. At this point, after some more returns are in, Obama is 100 superdelegates short.
If these 100 superdelegates were lined up in March, the race would have been over and there would have been no need to go through the motions in Pennsylvania.
The REALITY is that Obama didnt get those 100 Superdelegates, he doesnt have them now and he really does not know when he is going to get them.
AT any time, 100 additional superdelegates is the end of this race - it could have been in late February, March, April or now
At any time, that ends the race.
Obama is a stalled car about a mile from the finish lne.
Obama either gets there or he doesn't.
It is time for someone else to step in and try to assemble the necessary majority. Obama had his chance. He didnt do it.
I think there would be a sense of relief in the Democratic Party if this did happen.
Biden jump back in, Dodd jump in. Someone start calling the Superdelegates.
After all the millions spend and all, to really believe that we are at the equivalent of the third ballot at an Open Convention is not too far off.
Release the delegates. Pick a nominee and get going.
Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 8, 2008 12:56 AM
WoW,
"They said, Obama win a blg blue state in which you do not live."
And you said Obama never did it right?
Maryland is a Blue state. Really. I live there. He won Maryland. But I'd think that winning a red state would be even better, considering that we need those.
And by the way, since you talk about keeping words, why don't you answer why HRC didn't keep hers when she agreed that MI and FL wouldn't count.
And since we're talking about judgment and guilt by association, have you noticed that the Obama campaign never ONCE brought up Monica or the Lincoln Bedroom? But then again, by your logic, HRC could get a car accident, hit and run because she couldn't be bothered with sticking around and you'd be there saying that it's the other driver's fault for getting hit.
Posted by: jaded | May 8, 2008 12:51 AM
wait a second...
is someone actually quoting michael moore?
fail.
Posted by: Trisha | May 8, 2008 12:38 AM
For all you HILLARY/MCCAIN hags...
By all means, if you think that by throwing temper tantrums because Hillary has lost - face it, LOST and you say you will all go and support MCCAIN, then you are obviously not really Hillary supporters, but just women who have an agenda, and care little or nothing for the state of our country.
You would go for a war-mongering right winger that will put in right-wing justices. As a woman, I find it disgusting that you are willing to hold the party hostage to threaten a coup - I say good riddance to bad rubbish. By all means, GO, and please don't come back. I am a white, mid-50's, well educated woman, who would never put my whims above that of my country. It just goes to show, some people have NO CLASS and NO LOYALTY to anyone but themselves.
Get out of the party once Hillary is gone, PLEASE, BUT before you do, don't forget to mail her the $5.00 so she can pay herself back that 11.4 million she's out.
Posted by: granma | May 8, 2008 12:35 AM
Yeah Hill!
Posted by: Patriot | May 8, 2008 12:33 AM
My Vote's for Obama (if I could vote) ...by Michael Moore
Friends,
I don't get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn't get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted.
So, if you live in Pennsylvania, can you do me a favor? Will you please cast my vote -- and yours -- on Tuesday for Senator Barack Obama?
I haven't spoken publicly 'til now as to who I would vote for, primarily for two reasons: 1) Who cares?; and 2) I (and most people I know) don't give a rat's ass whose name is on the ballot in November, as long as there's a picture of JFK and FDR riding a donkey at the top of the ballot, and the word "Democratic" next to the candidate's name.
Seriously, I know so many people who don't care if the name under the Big "D" is Dancer, Prancer, Clinton or Blitzen. It can be Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, Barry Obama or the Dalai Lama.
Well, that sounded good last year, but over the past two months, the actions and words of Hillary Clinton have gone from being merely disappointing to downright disgusting. I guess the debate last week was the final straw. I've watched Senator Clinton and her husband play this game of appealing to the worst side of white people, but last Wednesday, when she hurled the name "Farrakhan" out of nowhere, well that's when the silly season came to an early end for me. She said the "F" word to scare white people, pure and simple. Of course, Obama has no connection to Farrakhan. But, according to Senator Clinton, Obama's pastor does -- AND the "church bulletin" once included a Los Angeles Times op-ed from some guy with Hamas! No, not the church bulletin!
This sleazy attempt to smear Obama was brilliantly explained the following night by Stephen Colbert. He pointed out that if Obama is supported by Ted Kennedy, who is Catholic, and the Catholic Church is led by a Pope who was in the Hitler Youth, that can mean only one thing: OBAMA LOVES HITLER!
Yes, Senator Clinton, that's how you sounded. Like you were nuts. Like you were a bigot stoking the fires of stupidity. How sad that I would ever have to write those words about you. You have devoted your life to good causes and good deeds. And now to throw it all away for an office you can't win unless you smear the black man so much that the superdelegates cry "Uncle (Tom)" and give it all to you.
But that can't happen. You cast your die when you voted to start this bloody war. When you did that you were like Moses who lost it for a moment and, because of that, was prohibited from entering the Promised Land.
How sad for a country that wanted to see the first woman elected to the White House. That day will come -- but it won't be you. We'll have to wait for the current Democratic governor of Kansas to run in 2016 (you read it here first!).
There are those who say Obama isn't ready, or he's voted wrong on this or that. But that's looking at the trees and not the forest. What we are witnessing is not just a candidate but a profound, massive public movement for change. My endorsement is more for Obama The Movement than it is for Obama the candidate.
That is not to take anything away from this exceptional man. But what's going on is bigger than him at this point, and that's a good thing for the country. Because, when he wins in November, that Obama Movement is going to have to stay alert and active. Corporate America is not going to give up their hold on our government just because we say so. President Obama is going to need a nation of millions to stand behind him.
I know some of you will say, 'Mike, what have the Democrats done to deserve our vote?' That's a damn good question. In November of '06, the country loudly sent a message that we wanted the war to end. Yet the Democrats have done nothing. So why should we be so eager to line up happily behind them?
I'll tell you why. Because I can't stand one more friggin' minute of this administration and the permanent, irreversible damage it has done to our people and to this world. I'm almost at the point where I don't care if the Democrats don't have a backbone or a kneebone or a thought in their dizzy little heads. Just as long as their name ain't "Bush" and the word "Republican" is not beside theirs on the ballot, then that's good enough for me.
I, like the majority of Americans, have been pummeled senseless for 8 long years. That's why I will join millions of citizens and stagger into the voting booth come November, like a boxer in the 12th round, all bloodied and bruised with one eye swollen shut, looking for the only thing that matters -- that big "D" on the ballot.
Don't get me wrong. I lost my rose-colored glasses a long time ago.
It's foolish to see the Democrats as anything but a nicer version of a party that exists to do the bidding of the corporate elite in this country. Any endorsement of a Democrat must be done with this acknowledgement and a hope that one day we will have a party that'll represent the people first, and laws that allow that party an equal voice.
Finally, I want to say a word about the basic decency I have seen in Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton continues to throw the Rev. Wright up in his face as part of her mission to keep stoking the fears of White America. Every time she does this I shout at the TV, "Say it, Obama! Say that when she and her husband were having marital difficulties regarding Monica Lewinsky, who did she and Bill bring to the White House for 'spiritual counseling?' THE REVEREND JEREMIAH WRIGHT!"
But no, Obama won't throw that at her. It wouldn't be right. It wouldn't be decent. She's been through enough hurt. And so he remains silent and takes the mud she throws in his face.
That's why the crowds who come to see him are so large. That's why he'll take us down a more decent path. That's why I would vote for him if Michigan were allowed to have an election.
But the question I keep hearing is... 'can he win? Can he win in November?' In the distance we hear the siren of the death train called the Straight Talk Express. We know it's possible to hear the words "President McCain" on January 20th. We know there are still many Americans who will never vote for a black man. Hillary knows it, too. She's counting on it.
Pennsylvania, the state that gave birth to this great country, has a chance to set things right. It has not had a moment to shine like this since 1787 when our Constitution was written there. In that Constitution, they wrote that a black man or woman was only "three fifths" human. On Tuesday, the good people of Pennsylvania have a chance for redemption.
Yours,
Michael Moore
Posted by: | May 8, 2008 12:11 AM
Democrats I have spoken to today are convinced that Obama is a flawed candidate.
The weakness is there.
The problem is essentially the front-loading of the primaries - there are not enough primaries after mid February to allow the party to go in a different direction.
The proportional system also turned out to be difficult and unworkable in such a race.
If one thinks about it, a proportional system lends itself toward a Convention fight.
All the party needs is three or more viable candidates dividing up the delegates and a Convention fight is almost assured.
The Superdelegate system is also a mess because 20% of the delegates are not available to the candidates unless they want them to be available. Control of the whole process is subjected to not only the preferences of the Superdelegates, but their fears as well.
Obama has had three months to gain a final confirmation that he is the nominee - from the larger states that have gone since February, from a showing in a wider demographic profile - or from the Superdelegates endorsements which would put him over the top - specifically he needs 100 additional superdelegates.
Obama has failed on each of the above.
They said, Obama win a blg blue state in which you do not live.
Obama didnt do it. Name the largest blue state Obama won - you really have to think about it if you have to exclude Illinois.
McGovern was a sign today - Oh it was. Reminding us of what the democrats do not want.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 11:56 PM
For many long time Democratic members, one of the major source of frustration is the current Dem. primary election system, which is so mediocre and ill-designed, the rules of which is so complicated that even a rocket scientist will have problem to comprehend, The result of these awkward situation of invalidating the Florida and Michigan election appears to the power struggle between the national and local bureacrats of the Dem. party. The leading candidate, i.e. sen. Obama has not won any key battleground state as well as any major large state except his home state Illinois. The fact is that, if the simple electoral vote system (used in the general election) was adopted, the primary election in the Dem. party would be long over, with sen. Clinton as the nominee.
Posted by: austin de | May 7, 2008 11:56 PM
If another candidate wanted to run, that person should start calling superdelegates and line up enough support to block anyone else from getting a majority.
At that point, perhaps at about 100 superdelegates, all the delegates would feel free to wander if they wanted.
Such a candidate could campaign in the remaining states too, perhaps too late to get on the ballot however as a write-in or simply to get out there.
Biden or Dodd could jump in.
To be honest, I thought they all, including Edwards were going to stay in the race until at least the end of February and see how the delegates broke out.
There was always the possibility that what happened on SuperTuesday would not carry the entire race.
There was always the scenario that the SuperTuesday states would go in a direction which was not sustainable - and the potential problem that there were not enough states after SuperTuesday to sustain a new direction.
I believe we have experienced that scenario.
Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 7, 2008 11:38 PM
By "throw Open the Convention" I meant make the delegates available and free to be courted by other candidates.
Technically, the Convention is Open.
Even the pledged delegates are free to switch sides at anytime. The story is this: in 1980 Ted Kennedy wanted a vote at the Convention to allow Jimmy Carter's delegates to be free to vote for Kennedy.
Ted Kennedy lost that vote, so he could not prevail on the vote for Presidential nominee.
These were back in the days.
In the days when they took votes at Conventions.
Ted Kennedy, after that Convention, when to the DNC and got a rules change - all pledged delegates would be forever able to vote for whoever they wanted at the Convention.
So, in truth they are not pledged delegates. Or they are pledged, however they do not have to follow the pledge.
OK, got that straight.
It is an Open Convention. Already.
Maybe someone should release all the delegates and invite other candidates to go it.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 11:30 PM
I owe apologies to Mr. or Ms. "Words of Wisdom" and also to the anonymous one who posted at May 7, 2008 10:38 PM -- and (let me not forget) to the Dalai Lama, Mamie Eisenhower, King Cong, Hoodini, Spider Man, Snow White, and the Geico Gecko. Why?
I ought not thrust you into painful guessing so long as I have, lest the torture spoil digestion of your dinners. The truth is that Hillary and Billy-boy seek to delay the election for several years, and they plan to embroil people in election-foiling litigation (even if by becoming defendants and material witnesses in election fraud suits like the one fulminating in California). Why? They knew that Hillary could not win the prize (or close the deal), but they want to create a setting that will let Chelsea become old enough to run for the presidency before anyone else can take the office. (In the meantime, Billy-boy will take the other New York Senate seat to prove God chose the Clintons (not the children of Abraham).
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 7, 2008 11:23 PM
What a disaster for the Democratic Party. You would think we had learned our lesson from 2004 when we nominated the most liberal member of the Senate. When will Barack don the helmet and ride a tank? Just keep him away from the bowling alleys, will ya, Mr. Axelrod?
Posted by: Hyde Park Moderate | May 7, 2008 11:04 PM
""And consider that if Hillary does not quit soon, her campaign will owe her a debt near-large as the U.S. owes China. Have pity for her grandchildren.""
LOL, but she will re-coup it one way or another. She can always send Bill out to make more speeches backing trade with Colombia. That seems to pay well.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 11:00 PM
To the anonymous one who posted at May 7, 2008 10:38 PM :
Ah, but can McCain solve this riddle with the correct Bible reference? Which stretches farther (not further)? Rubber or skin? I think he can't. I think he can't. I think he can't. And I am the little train that could.
Truly, the November winner will not be anyone you imagine to be the winner you imagine to be, O anonymous one. And consider that if Hillary does not quit soon, her campaign will owe her a debt near-large as the U.S. owes China. Have pity for her grandchildren.
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 7, 2008 10:51 PM
""But I will tell you the outcome of the November election (and you can make book on what I tell, for I am Nostradamus's frontal and occipital lobes), if only you can solve this riddle: If a chicken and a half can lay an egg and a half in a day and a half, how long must a tree-frog kick to knock the warts off a cuke-pickle? [The riddle submits to logical solution.] Oh, and my name is not Rumpelstiltskin, either.""
The winner of the November election is John McCain. He knows all about the chicken and the egg and the tree-frog. The Obama/Clinton supporters told him.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:38 PM
Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 10:09 PM :
My name is not Loop, or Loup-de-doop. You're making me cry. My dog is liking my tears. You are a very naughty bad bad bully, and a badder badder boy (even if you are a girl). And I continue to await your throwing sticks and stones.
You cannot hold the proposition that I have made clear what I feel concerning the French. You have no premise (despite in my earliest post I wrote to CntrvilleCitoyen: "Vous ĂȘtes...comme moi, une francophile?"). You seem to fancy that you are not only a soothsayer but also a clairvoyant.
But I will tell you the outcome of the November election (and you can make book on what I tell, for I am Nostradamus's frontal and occipital lobes), if only you can solve this riddle: If a chicken and a half can lay an egg and a half in a day and a half, how long must a tree-frog kick to knock the warts off a cuke-pickle? [The riddle submits to logical solution.] Oh, and my name is not Rumpelstiltskin, either.
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 7, 2008 10:33 PM
They don't have to "throw open the convention". After the first ballot, the super delegates can go any way they want.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:32 PM
delegate should read nominee.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:30 PM
Well, Words of Wisdom, you are finally getting it. Neither Clinton nor Obama will be the delegate from the convention.
That's for the good of the democratic party.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:29 PM
The more I post here the more I become convinced that the Superdelegates do not want to go with Obama.
Sorry to Planet O.
If they wanted Obama, they would have made him the nominee in March and all this nonsense would not be happening.
The Superdelegates are risking damage to the party - there must be a reason.
There could be a movement to throw Open the Convention - let the other candidates have the summer to organize.
100 Superdelegates could probably declare that they want an Open Convention and refuse to endorse and will open up the possibility that someone else jumps in.
This is the endgame people. We have been in the endgame since at least March 4 -
Maybe both Obama and Hillary should release all their delegates.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 10:25 PM
"The truth is Obama called Indiana a tiebreaker."
So? Who cares? Does that mean Obama should step down or something? As if that means anything. Didn't Clinton say that Michigan and Florida don't count?
These aren't Republican primaries. States aren't won or lost. For all this talk about vote rigging or something, you think that there was vote rigging over ONE delegate??
Idiot
Posted by: DDAWD | May 7, 2008 10:24 PM
And McCain will have a woman for VP. Unbeatable.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:24 PM
Three cheers for the next president of the US, Senator John McCain.
The Obama/Clinton supporters have seen to that.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:20 PM
OK How about if we make West Virginia the tiebreaker ?????
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 10:17 PM
""What was so great about what Obama did last night was it the 37% of white voters in North Carolina or was it losing the tiebreaker Indiana ??""
This statement is correct.
The Obama people are a little delusional.
Posted by: Jimmy Boy | May 7, 2008 10:14 PM
Also, I was referred to as a "Hillary hag." This is somewhat problematic to me, since, you know, racism and sexism was apparently dead with the dinosaurs. That's okay, though. No one wins on the internet, but I'd like for you to call me a McCain Hag, instead.
Kthnx.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:10 PM
Loop
Our feelings about the French are clear.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 10:09 PM
Is the poster at 9:51 in reality Dick Cheney ???
Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 7, 2008 10:07 PM
Additionally, I think one thing we can all agree on, Obama OR Hillary, is that Washington Post > CNN.
Seriously.
Posted by: Trisha | May 7, 2008 10:07 PM
BSIMON,
Yep. I loved that man, but sadly was 17, a Junior in high school, campaigning for him, trying to get the vote out even though I couldn't do the same. And then when Johnny boy became the nominee, I lost faith in politics 'til I was 20 and for the first time, I was able to vote and helped give Ohio a Democratic governor and senator.
I was an activist; now I know better.
Posted by: Trisha | May 7, 2008 10:05 PM
""maybe it would be smart to throw open the Convention and go for what is best for the party.
Both Hillary and Obama out - ""
That is what will happen if the super delegates are smart. Obama nor Hillary as the nominee. The democrats have now proven that neither is electable.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:02 PM
"Obama said Indiana was the tiebreaker between Pennslvania, North Carolina."
You too, nope, he said it COULD be the tiebreaker. Read the statement made on the campaign bus. He said Could be, not Will be.
Obama won the most delegates in the two states. Facts is facts.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 10:00 PM
I have been reading through these comments and Words of Wisdom is correct.
The Obama people are confused or something.
Obama needs 100 additional superdelegates - in fact the superdelegates could say no one has a majority and we are going to have an Open Convention.
The question is who is the best candidate for the ticket in November.
Because the superdelegates all come from different places, their down tickets all look different.
One thing is clear: the caution flag is out on Obama. The superdelegates really are not sure they want Obama on the top of the ticket.
In fact, they are willing to risk a destructive spring for the party in order to be sure to have a strong top of the ticket in November.
Clearly Obama is fading as the right candidate for November - the results in North Carolina were horrible for Obama.
This is the equivalent of the third ballot at an Open Convention - maybe it would be smart to throw open the Convention and go for what is best for the party.
Both Hillary and Obama out -
Posted by: Dan Virtue | May 7, 2008 9:59 PM
""What was so great about what Obama did last night was it the 37% of white voters in North Carolina or was it losing the tiebreaker Indiana ??""
No, it was the delegates that he picked up over Clinton. Read slowly and move your lips if necessary, he won the most delegates and that is what the primaries are about.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:56 PM
Obama said Indiana was the tiebreaker between Pennslvania, North Carolina. Hillary won the tie breaker. Now the pundits and all Obama supporters want Hillary to quit.
What is wrong with Hillary going all the way. Remember Kennedy against Carter. Kennedy went all the way with no chance.
Obama could be another McGovern/Kerry/Adli.
Posted by: J Carney | May 7, 2008 9:52 PM
""New England liberals and eager young activists back him up.""
You've been reading too many media reports. I can assure you that I am white, male, college educated, retired from the oil industry, from the southwest and in my 70's.
Obama is the candidate that I back, and you are mightily in the wrong if you believe what you just posted.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:51 PM
Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 9:13 PM
You wrote: "The French are a little confused we all know that."
My name is French. I am not my name. I am not French. I am not a Tasmanian devil. I am. But while my name is Louc-bouc, my true name is not Wolf-goat. Rather, it MEANS "Il qui a le coeur du lion," and it is not Richard. I await your throws of sticks and stones. Can't you find any?
For the rest of your above-cited post, the answer is twofold: (1) You cannot find a premise to support your soothsayer's assertions. (2) You need to learn the meaning of relevance.
Now to 37th&OStreet | May 7, 2008 9:22 PM :
Your retort is irrelevant speculation (like "the superdelegates took a look at Obama in March...and...said...they did not want to endorse Obama") mixed with assertions belied by actual facts (like the fact that Obama is gaining superdelegates at a rate about 3 times the rate of Clinton's superdelegate gains and Clinton superdelegates are switchiing to Obama but Obama superdelegates are not switching to Clinton).
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 7, 2008 9:50 PM
It is amazing, this is about the third time the Obama people have been jumping up and down saying "we won, we won" - the media reports that and it just isn't true.
It is bizarro land. Planet O.
What was so great about what Obama did last night was it the 37% of white voters in North Carolina or was it losing the tiebreaker Indiana ?????
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 9:48 PM
""The superdelegates know what many are afraid to admit. This country is not ready to elect a bi-racial, phenotypically black man for president, no matter how many New England liberals and eager young activists back him up.""
That's now what the average of the polls say. Obama over McCain as of today that went up .3 percentage points again.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:47 PM
No, he said Indiana COULD be a tiebreaker. Read the outtakes. You stop being a baby, and admit defeat. You and the people like you are the exact reason that John McCain will be the new president. And you know it.
If the super delegates are super smart, neither Clinton or Obama will be the nominee after the first ballot in the convention. The democrats are now a split party down the middle and the republicans and democrats were already split down the middle. That leaves McCain as a shoo-in. and the democrats brought it on themselves, again.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:46 PM
Ccornsilk is correct Come on people, think about it. Obama is 100 superdelegates short and he can't do anything, he is stalled like a junk car on the side of the road.
Corn you forgot to add Metrosexual.
Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 7, 2008 9:43 PM
The superdelegates know what many are afraid to admit. This country is not ready to elect a bi-racial, phenotypically black man for president, no matter how many New England liberals and eager young activists back him up. Hillary could beat McCain. Obama would go down with Kerry, McGovern, McCarthy, Humphrey and Stevenson. Isn't is curious that like endorses like? This emperor has no clothes. Who will be the first to notice?
Posted by: ccornsilk | May 7, 2008 9:40 PM
Words of Wisdom is 100% correct in most things he says.
I can not remember a frontrunner who has gone through the spring without being able to close the deal.
All the Obama people do is talk about Hillary's delegates, and they never say that Obama doesn't have enough for a majority.
Posted by: James | May 7, 2008 9:39 PM
To the poster at 9:24 who refuses to make up a name because you are probably the Obama campaign staff:
What did you do, have your research department dig up something that you could parse?
The truth is Obama called Indiana a tiebreaker.
So you can stop twisting the truth like translator, or maybe you are translator or translator is at another PC at headquarters with you.
Stop being a baby.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 9:37 PM
From today's news:
Hillary Super-Delegate Defects To Obama
By Eric Kleefeld - May 7, 2008, 3:43PM
Barack Obama is picking up yet more super-delegate support -- and Hillary Clinton might be starting to bleed hers.
Virginia DNC member Jennifer McClellan has now switched from supporting Hillary over to Obama, further diminishing her slim advantage in the super-del count.
And Obama picked up 3 more besides the switch.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:34 PM
Words of Wisdom, you can't win for losing. Give it a break, or get educated. the more that you post, the more stupid you look.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:26 PM
Chris: BILLARY Clinton is D-O-N-E, but it's going to take someone to step up and push her OFF the political cliff!
OsiSpeaks.com
Posted by: KYJurisDoctor | May 7, 2008 9:25 PM
Sorry Words of Wisdom, it didn't happen on TV or anywhere else:
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. -- On the second day of his Indiana bus tour, Obama said the state could be a potential "tiebreaker" in the lengthy nomination process.
"I think Indiana is very important," Obama said. "We've got three contests coming up in pretty big states -- Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana. They all have significant numbers of delegates, and they are states where Sen. Clinton and I are actively campaigning."
"You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania," he added, "and I'm right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker. So we want to work very hard in Indiana. While Sen. Clinton has some advantages here, I benefit coming from an adjoining state."
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:24 PM
Response to Loop
Obama has had enough time to close the deal on this nomination. Obama has known since February about how he would poll in the remaining contests and about how many superdelegates he would therefore need.
Come on, you are all acting like children.
The truth is the superdelegates took a look at Obama in March when this race should have been closed out and they said that they did not want to endorse Obama at that time.
We are sitting here with Obama stalled, like a junk car, 100 delegates short of a majority.
At the Convention, that would call for another ballot, other candidates could jump in and start to gather delegates.
That is how the process works.
Perhaps that is what should happen right now - we have the equivalent of an Open Convention on the third ballot.
Obama is weakening as a candidate, the superdelegates really don't want him on the ticket in November, OR he would have the nomination already.
Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 7, 2008 9:22 PM
""How about Obama doing the right thing, and offering Clinton the VP spot right now? Or is his ego and lust for power more important than healing the party? I suppose that's ok since he has the correct genitals to behave that way and be admired for it.""
Now why would he do that oh under educated, old, white, female. He would have to be looking over his shoulder and expecting it to be his last day at any time. They've done worse.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:21 PM
To the poster at 9:03
Are you Bill Clinton
Obama said on television Indiana is the tiebreaker.
Dont quibble
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 9:16 PM
Response to Loop-de-do
All your points are incorrect.
The French are a little confused we all know that.
The simple truth is that the remaining uncommitted Superdelegates really do not want to go with Obama, OR they would have already.
Obama has been the frontrunner since mid-February - this race should have been decided in March.
The time for the superdelegates to have decided was March - they are holding back.
All your reasoning and crazy math means nothing if you can not get the additional 100 superdelegates that Obama should have gotten in March.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 9:13 PM
""Let's face it Maybe she could have done a few percentage points better - what is that 3 delegates???
You guys are acting like this over 3 delegates ???"
That puts her 3 more delegates behind.
You can bet if it were 3 more for Hillary, you would be shouting from the rooftops.
Get real, give it up.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:12 PM
""If you do not believe me, call an uncommitted superdelegate and find out why they are not the person who you think is the nominee already.""
Oh good grief, 3 more super delegates for Obama today, and one as yet unconfirmed switch from Clinton to Obama. We don't need to call anyone, they are announcing daily.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:05 PM
From LA Times, at
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/dianne-feinstei.html
Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California was an early and stout supporter of Hillary Clinton's presidential bid (see this campaign release from July).
Might Feinstein's comments today be a harbinger of the feedback Clinton now can expect from many backers for whom politics is a full-time occupation?
The Times' Janet Hook trolled Capitol Hill for assessments from various Democratic lawmakers on the state of their party's presidential race and reports that Feinstein signaled that, at the least, Clinton needs to provide a renewed rationale for remaining a candidate.
"I have great fondness and great respect for Sen. Clinton, and I'm very loyal to her," Feinstein said. "That said, I'd like to talk with her and get her view on the rest of the race and what the strategy is" for proceeding.
The question, Feinstein continued, is whether Clinton "can get the delegates that she needs."
She added, perhaps most ominously for Clinton: "I think the race is reaching the point now where there are negative dividends from it, in terms of strife within the party."
Feinstein said she placed a call to Clinton the other day, and expects to talk to her soon about the campaign.
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 7, 2008 9:05 PM
Words of Wisdom. Obama did not say that Indiana would be the tiebreaker. He said it Could be the tiebreaker. Look it up.
And nothing broke the tie. Indeed he came out with more delegates in the two primaries than Clinton. Look it up, and give it up.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 9:03 PM
To Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 8:25 PM :
You wrote: "The article you reference does not account for the May 31 DNC Rules Committee Meeting on Florida and Michigan."
Your wish makes your eyes deceive you. The article accounts thoroughly for the meeting. It supposes that the Florida and Michigan votes count just as Hillary wants, and it shows that the count would leave Obama in the lead.
Your wrote: "Also, it does not account for Hillary having the inside track for the remaining Add-On Superdelegates."
What inside track? Nearly every day, superdelegates pledge for Obama, and in numbers greater than of those pledging for Hillary. And superdelegates have switched from Hillary to Obama, but none has switched from Obama to Hillary. Also, the article accounts for superdelegates, thoroughly.
You wrote: "And it [the article] does not account for the fact that Obama has failed to get the 100 additional Superdelegates that he has needed."
The article does account for the matter -- thoroughly. E.g.: "Including superdelegates, Mr. Obama leads 1,836 to 1,678, according to a New York Times count. To win the nomination, he needs about 35 percent of the delegates that remain. (So far, he has about 52 percent of the delegates). [New paragraph] The Clinton camp has been arguing that the full number of delegates needed to claim the nomination is 2,209, which includes Florida and Michigan, as opposed to 2,025. If those delegates are seated, Mr. Obama would need about 43 percent of the delegates that remain"
YOU do not account for the fact that superdelegates are declaring for Obama more and faster than they are declaring for Hillary. And you do not account for Hillary's needing more than 100 superdelegates. But the article DOES account for that matter: "To win this count, Mrs. Clinton would need to pick up more than 80 percent of the unallocated pledged delegates. One measure of how difficult this would be: in her best state so far - Arkansas - she won 77 percent of the pledged delegates."
Oh, and my name is Loup-bouc (and it's French, you know), NOT Loup-de-do (which is of language that is alien tongue). Throw sticks and stones, please, 'cause names do ever hurt me. You nasty bad bad bully, you.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 8:47 PM
Response to Loop-de-do
The article you reference does not account for the May 31 DNC Rules Committee Meeting on Florida and Michigan
Also, it does not account for Hillary having the inside track for the remaining Add-On Superdelegates.
And it does not account for the fact that Obama has failed to get the 100 additional Superdelegates that he has needed.
Everyone expected the Democratic nominee to be able to tie this thing together in March.
Not much has changed since then.
Obama has failed to close the deal - he lost what he called the tiebreaker.
The race is much much closer than everyone is pretending here.
If you do not believe me, call an uncommitted superdelegate and find out why they are not the person who you think is the nominee already.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 8:25 PM
Chris and the media:
With all seriousness, what results did you expect from yesterday ???
North Carolina has a massive black population.
How much of the white vote did you really think was realistic for Hillary???
Indiana is not just close to Chicago, it is right next to Chicago - it is in Chicago's media market.
What result did you really think Hillary could get in Indiana, when the whole northwest corner of the state is part of Chicagoland?
The media is a little out there.
Let's face it Maybe she could have done a few percentage points better - what is that 3 delegates???
You guys are acting like this over 3 delegates ???
I have ceased to take the media seriously when reality is so far away from what has been reported.
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 8:18 PM
To Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 8:05 PM :
You delude yourself, but few others.
To confront the math truth, read "By the Numbers,"
Amanda Cox, New York Times, 7 May 2008, 4:04 pm: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/by-the-numbers/
Posted by: Loup-bouc | May 7, 2008 8:16 PM
Hillery will stage an assination if she don't get her way she must be stopped before our man is killed to give her the nomination.
Posted by: Obama is God | May 7, 2008 8:16 PM
Is Clinton now resorting to credit card fraud to get money?
One of my tenants told me today her credit card had been hit by Clinton again even though she just made one donation about a month ago.
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 8:15 PM
The Clinton Campaign more and more resembles the final weeks of Hitler's dictatorship... sending impossible-to-sustain orders to phantom divisions, wild schemes to pit the Russians against the Americans, fixed grins on the faces of the generals who know the hopeless reality, while the true believers carry on in their kookooland fantasy world, inner-circle "advisors" who parrot the Leader's ridiculously optimistic evaluations of the situation, while all the time the circle tightens around them, reality hammering at the gates as the "world-historic figure" denies the harsh but inescapable reality of certain doom. No matter how the possibilities are re-shuffled, it is OVER!!! "Bite the Bullet", Hillary, and spare us any further drama. Your Clinton Restoration will not happen, so put your Coronation gown in mothballs. Forever.
Posted by: jack bauer in' 08 | May 7, 2008 8:12 PM
Sen. Clinton felt she had a personal mission and destiny to become America's first woman president. That was a noble, worthy and historic goal, and she must feel deeply disappointed not to reach it. Clinton must search her own inner self and find the courage to accept Obama's near certain nomination and work for the higher good of her party and the country.
Now is the time for all Obama supporters to embrace Clinton's supporters, not gloat over his probable victory and not rub their noses into the dirt! Now is the time for Sen. Clinton to make peace with her self, stop the denial and new math, accept the primary results, and move on to support the party's campaign against John McCain!
Posted by: Jim | May 7, 2008 8:10 PM
HILLARY'S PATH TO VICTORY
Not sure how all this adds up - the delegate situation is about the same as it was last weekend.
The democratic race is essentially a tie - we have analyzed the popular vote totals and the various anomalies in the delegate distribution formulas which explain over half of the difference in the delegate totals between the candidates - WHAT IS THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE ? Hillary right now is exactly where she thought she would be -
Here is Hillary's Path to Victory There are more than enough delegates for Hillary to win a majority:
1) Win West Viriginia on May 13
2) Win Kentucky on May 20
3) Lock up the vote at the DNC Rules Committee on May 31 on Florida and Michigan giving Hillary PLUS 70 delegates cutting Obama's lead in half.
4) Win the majority of the 50 Add-On Superdelegates which have yet to be chosen.
5) Win Puerto Rico.
Pretty Clear ahead - all of these things are likely to happen.
At that point, the Superdelegates have to wonder how they can go with Obama who has failed to close the deal, failed to poll well among key demographics and failed to show how he can win in November.
It's not like baseball where a team can clinch the pennant by losing that day and "backing in" - Obama needs to have a winning streak going in. Where is it ????
Obama said Indiana would be the tiebreaker - what about keeping Obama to his word ???
Posted by: Words of Wisdom | May 7, 2008 8:05 PM
Response to translator
Did you read the Comment on Comments this week?
YOU were told to stop the personal attacks
If you have an opinion, state it.
YOU should stop attempting to twist people's words around, you are starting to sound like Obama himself.
Posted by: 37th&OStreet | May 7, 2008 8:03 PM
have something better to do than
hang around and intimidate civilians...
daygo
Posted by: don't you | May 7, 2008 7:57 PM
knows better than you,
with your face glued to his crotch...
once is all you get schieesskopf
come closer, I'll show you glory.
heh heh heh...
Posted by: who | May 7, 2008 7:56 PM
"...a gay, alcoholic, coke snorting, lackwit, ..."
Who?
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 7:50 PM
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 7:49 PM
Posted by: | May 7, 2008 7:47 PM
little bit of honesty
would be you showing your intent to not elect the best candidate
but to persuade that
the best candidate isn't as important as
"the smear,"
repuddlickings are all about
straight "appeal to emotion," that's why AMERICANS
can be sold something like homophobia, by a gay, alcoholic, coke snorting, lackwit, with no reallife experience doing anything except
administering BJ's as party favors in frat houses all accross the country...
but you knew that you have given as well as recieved aincha.
.
Posted by: a | May 7, 2008 7:46 PM
Words of Wisdom wrote:
"Obama was earlier projected to win Indiana - funny how over a few weeks - the bar shifts to state that Hillary has to win with 55% of the vote in a state that includes Chicago suburbs. Who is writing this stuff?"
Who? Easy - the people who have been calling for Hillary to do the right, subservient, female thing and quit. They keep saying "she must win this state or she's done;" then she wins the state in question, and they still say she's done.
She should not quit. The only way a woman is ever going to be the POTUS is by ignoring the people who would drag her down before the finish line. They've been trying for months now, and apparently are every bit as unenlightened as they appear to be, because they just don't get it. Obama may win the battle, but sadly there's a good chance the Democrats will then lose the war. Never underestimate how much Republicans and mid-staters will allow themselves to be fleeced as long as they are made to feel morally superior by the people doing the fleecing. Unlike this stupid primary set up, the GE is winner take all.
It may be childish to some, but as a middle aged woman who has given the Democrats the benefit of the doubt my entire life, mainly as the lesser of two evils, I'll be an independent from this year forward. The misogyny on display in the media and the halls of power within the party is sickening. Enough. Many of us will move on without you, count on it.
How about Obama doing the right thing, and offering Clinton the VP spot right now? Or is his ego and lust for power more important than healing the party? I suppose that's ok since he has the correct genitals to behave that way and be admired for it.
Posted by: Cat | May 7, 2008 7:45 PM
One thing that REALLY amuses me is that the Clinton supporters are saying "Count ALL the votes in ALL the states."
But if you remember back, Clinton had a 27 state strategy - have the nomination sewn up by the time the ballots were counted after the polls closed on Super Tuesday.
So her original intent was to exclude the voters of:
Democrats Abroad (oooops, no EC votes, so doesn't count)
Louisiana
Nebraska
Virgin Islands (oooops, no EC votes, so doesn't count)
Washington state
Maine
District of Columbia
Maryland
Virginia
Hawaii
Wisconsin
Ohio
Rhode Island
Texas
Vermont
Wyoming
Mississippi
Pennsylvania
Guam (oooops, no EC votes, so doesn't count)
Indiana
North Carolina
West Virginia
Kentucky
Oregon
Puerto Rico (oooops, no EC votes, so doesn't count)
Montana
South Dakota
So why a "50 state" strategy now, but prior to Super Tuesday it was a "27 state" strategy?
A little bit of honesty on that point would be appreciated.
Posted by: Critter | May 7, 2008 7:42 PM
I could give a big rats BEE HIND!!!
HOWSOME_EVUH, a lot of rethuglicans are being scammed by bushCO and CRONYs into thinking that it's just a dem thing, or a liberal thang...
listen up
little dawg stools, I used to work in Washington D.C. for the Defense Department and as a beltway bandit contractor, been over to Fort Meade too. Have some friends in the CIA...think tank worker too...you couldn't dream of where ah been....you war profiteers ?
"your kind," are criminals,
bushCO and CRONYies are treasonous pieces of scum....
if that's true then,
WHY, isn't AMERICA fighting back against it's own EVILE dictatorship ???
MOST AMERICANS, are too busy too, trying to "get by," just getting by...
look at the empty factories
look at customer service overseas
look at computer jobs, overseas
look at medical jobs going overseas
look at foreigners controlling former
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Does Hillary really want to win by receiving the white racist vote?