What the MSM doesn't want you to know:

http://www.theobamafile.com/

What the MSM doesn't want you to know:

http://www.theobamafile.com/

What the MSM doesn't want you to know:

http://www.theobamafile.com/

The national polls are fun, but really, this isn't a national contest. The electoral college system gives us 50 state elections, not a national election.

The most interesting kind of polling would be to have an interactive map showing states as red/blue or too close to call (withing the margin of error of latest polls) and giving the average percentage lead in each state.

For instance, according to the SFChronicle, Obama leads McCain by 24 points. Wow. That certainly take CA out of play. It is good news for both candidates, since it means that neither should spend any money there (and it is an expensive state to buy time in.) Texas is likely to be for McCain by an equal amount (or is it?).

Maybe that would be too much work (setting up a state up state system), but it would be a lot of fun....

MARK IN AUSTIN: I am not suggesting that the Washington Post be a clearing house for any political gambling! Hardly. Gambling is illegal in the United States, at least poker and sports betting, I think.

That's not my problem. I don't live in the USA and I'm not a bookmaker. I'm merely offering a challenge bet of OBAMA over McCAIN at even money for a minimum of $5000 all liabilities to be posted to Off-US-Shore escrow so both sides know there's no monkey business. And the off-shore escrow takes care of your legal issues.

I am not surprised that I've gotten no takers. I think McCain supporters when asked to wager a decent sum of money quit viewing things through rose-colored glasses and abandon their prejudices and fantasies. It's pretty clear that Obama's a solid favorite in this.

I'll come back to one of my favorite themes here. If I were to lose these bets with any of you, it would not affect my life one iota. I know all about "American Exceptionalism" except that I'm a native Spanish speaker and I don't reside and am not a citizen of the United States. So, hmmm, I've got money, and my government allows me to gamble all I want publicly or privately. There's single-payer health care. No restrictions on abortion. Gay civil marriages are legal. You'd be way too jealous if I told you what our tax rates were. Posession of small amounts of drugs for personal use is not a crime. Liquor is sold around the clock. There are strong gun control laws for people in the cities who want Berettas but no problems whatsoever for licensed hunters. All forms of contraception are available over the counter. To get a wiretap of a landline or cell phone requires a court-order and can only run 10 days at a time. The judge supervises the transcripts and if he or she sees no progress after the first tap is authorized, the wiretap is cancelled.

Want to reconsider whether you live in "the free-est country on Earth"?

Lou Dobbs wants to keep Spanish-speaking people OUT of the US? Wow. That's really funny.

Duncan Renaldo, you're bogus. BO is up eight or so and it would be higher but for the constant bloviating about New Yorker covers and Rev. Jesse (has he ever identified his "church"?). Anyway, I don't think cancelled TV stars have standing to say much of anything, except goodnight. Goodnight. Hey, Cisco. Hey, Pancho.

That's right, JR, keep dreaming. That's why your Pretender to the Nomination has dropped like a stone in the polls, $$$, and credibility. No core, no character, Nobama.

With Obama's necessary move to the middle, shouldn't we have just elected Hillary since she was already there and knows quite a lot more than Obama about the issues on which he speaks so vaguely?

Oops . . . make that 'virtual'

Given the fact that 80% of the people think the country is headed in the wrong direction, Obama should be leading by double digits by now. Instead he is in a virgual tie with McCain. And it's not just Independents who are making the difference. We PUMAs are making the difference! 2 million strong and growing stronger every day. Join us.

blog.pumapac.org

I'd suggest reading "Why Obama Can Lose" at http://savagepolitics.com/?p=899

It's clear that he is a weak candidate who continues to underperform and after shooting himself a few more times is going to have to be carried across the finish line at the Dem Convention by HD & Brazile.

one thing is for certain...the more people get to "know" the Precious

the more they don't like him

glad to see the general public is catching up with some or us

if you watch the state by state polls, as well as the states that bush won in 2000 and 2004 as well as the expected losses the GOP is predicting for the fall you will see that this race is already over.

barack will get a large bump:
1. when he address the world on his trip.
2. after he picks a running mate.
3. after his convention speech.

go to www.electoral-vote.com where they compile all of the polls similar to realclearpolitics.com and they show that barack has a greater than 100 delegate lead over mccain on a daily basis, that is what counts not the poll numbers.

it is best that barack doen't surge to early ala hillary and rudy in 2007.

obama 08

Nader could categorically say now that there is no difference between these two candidates. Obama will throw any principle under the bus for political expediency. If any true blue democrat is out there, you ought to be outraged by what happened last week. Bush was pissing on the 4th amendment and Obama was holding Bush's member--and there was a bunch of Obamabots and surrogates changing "this is what we've been waiting for." Damn shame for all of us democrats.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/07/09/fisa/

It's PUMA time at the old corral, and we PUMAs are one growling counter-offensive in the name of participatory democracy, in the name of an ethical nomination process, in the name of integrity and precedent as to the Convention proceedings. We are and will continue to battle fiercely against anything other than the above. Hillary Clinton, the popular vote primary winner, deserves to have her name placed into nomination, her name placed on the very first ballot, along with all the trimmings. Anything less would be a travesty. But if Fortuna should turn her back in August, however, we expect to be very much on the prowl in large numbers at the ballot boxes on November 4th to carry out our own brand of justice.

The ultimate poll is November 4th.

Until then, all this yadda-yadda-yadda is just wasted breath.

We'll talk on November 5th.
At Obama's victory party.

And the GOP hasn't really begun on Obama yet.

Perhaps they are afraid Hillary might be nominated after all on August 25, since there is quite a grassroots movement for that, as shown by websites such as hillarysupporters.

there's a part of me that wishes Obama wins simply so I don't have to listen to all the excuses if Obama loses.

I can here it now. "It was Hillary's fault; It was Nader's fault;
It was racism; It was angry white males; They're just too stupid to get it. Rich WASPs still decide... but most of all, those dumb rubes in fly-over USA ruined America. We should secede and form a coastal state utopia...."

Biff's post on the "Obama Balls" product is by far the funniest thing I've read in years.

I also dig Dexter's offer to take bets of no less than $5k on McCain's defeat.

With that said the outcome is based on delegates and as of now McCain is way behind in that count. Trying to generate interest by having one poll suggest that Obama is up by 15 points and the same poll now shows he's up only 4 points is simply stupid.

Anybody that understands the technique of taking polls would know you can make them reflect whatever you want them to simply by framing the questions to dictate the results. Besides nothing has happen in the last few weeks that would even suggest poll movement up or down for either candidate.

The combined national averages of all polls have been in the 4 to 6 point range for the better part of 3 months. That would tell me Newsweek is creating news where there is no news.

We'll have a new president soon enough.

If I was head of a newspaper, radio station or network I'd fire all these talking heads until the last week of October. A week of talking heads is more than enough; any more than that is torture on all of us.

Chris,

Nice that you finally got around to quoting someone from the Dem side at the end of your piece. Prior to that throwaway at the end, you had quoted only Republican pollsters and "strategists."

This is what passes for "insightful analysis" these days.

Pathetic.

Dear Chris, there is a concept that you and your fellow liberal pals in our wolfpack press need to start warming up to and that is a McCain win in November isn't an upset.

It's expected. We expect McCain to win on November 4th with over 300+ electoral votes.

Have a nice day.........

Talk about cherry picking polls to fit the Vilage media narrative. I guess you are going to ignore the Quinipiac poll that has Obama up nine. Can you please give us actual insight in stead of you McMedia bias.

Obama spent 2 years in the Senate before declaring his run for the Presidency. His crown achievement was that he voted 94 times to raise taxes.
John McCain was tortured on and off over a five and a half year period as a POW. He proved his character then when he refused to accept early release which was not been offered to his fellow POWs. Obama, in the same situation, would have probably repudiated his grandmother, pastor and his community to gain early release. Obama probably would have volunteered to kill his own men too, such a low soul he is.

I was in France last week and they love Obama there. He's socialist, proposes unilateral, unconditional negotiations with terrorists to weaken America. Besides, take a look at Obama's endorsers- Fidel Castro, Hammas, Farakan, J.Wright, and probably most of the other terrorists. That should tell us something. Keep in mind, Bush has kept the American mainland safe from attacks after 9/11. Obama is fit for a "Chief Speech Officer" role, thats all. Without a telepromptor, he stammers and pauses like a 3nd grader.

Dude shm, a name can be muslim & arabic just as in Obama's case. You're not going to start arguing that he's really Jewish now, are ya? Besides, Hammas would probably pull their endorsement if that were true.

This race is 50 individual races and when you look at the polls coming out of the states I would have to agree with Mr.Yang not just Obama's numbers but down ballot! The Udall cousins are tearing up the place in New Mexico and Colo., Warner in Vigina, Sheheen in New Hampshire.Listen Chris I think you should look at these numbers as a perfect storm brewing for Obama and the D's a category 5 or a magnitude 10 earthquake, with Obama winning with over 300 electoral votes, the D's with 57 seats in the Senate and a big pick up in the house. This is not just a change election IT'S A BIG CHANGE ELECTION!

Just wait till McCain taps Alaska Gov Sarah Palin as his Veep -- then there'll be no way Obama can catch what will be McCain's significantly increasing lead. Palin's pizzazz will completely offset the current Obama media advantage.

The reason McCain is so close is because the press (McCain's "base") doesn't scrutinize his flip-flops and advisers' gaffes the way they do Obama's (and for that matter, Clinton's). Obviously the talking-heads would rather suckle at the teat of McCain's ranch and lap-dog express than do their jobs and seek the truth.
If the public (at least those that watch cable news and read newspapers/blogs) knew half as much about Phil "nation-of-whiners" Gramm as they did Jeremiah Wright, Obama's lead would be bigger. I attribute this race's closeness to McCain's free press and the mindset that "it's ok if you're a Republican."

To think that a Democrat would be leading by 20% in the polls is just plain ignorant. When did that happen the last time? Obama is new to a lot of people and many Hillary-backers haven't come down for Obama yet. Obama will lose some bigots (in the South) and some old people, but will gain a lot of support from pragmatic moderates in the North and West. My guess is a Obama win by 4-8%, with more than 300 EV.

See the funny thing is is that 1/2 the people who are rallying for Obama and can click a button in an online poll, won't get to the polls.

"Monday: National polls are tightening, though not enough to throw the presidential race into toss-up territory. This week's electoral vote count starts off at 306-232 with Barack Obama still comfortably ahead. That said, John McCain appears to be climbing out of a lowpoint we saw last month. From a high of 160, his electoral vote deficit now stands at 74. Since last week, he has gathered Florida and Nevada back into his column. In a year in which almost all indicators foretell a rousing Democratic victory in November, McCain is holding up well. But that will be little solace unless he can close the gap completely and gain an advantage by Election Day. From this prognosticator's vantage point, that still seems a feat a bit to difficult to accomplish."

www.electionprojection.com
-------------------------------------------------

The race may tighten in a few national polls, but the site above (which has accurately predicted the last few elections), and other projection sites show that, for now (as also mentioned in the column), the state polls are shifting pretty strongly in favor of Obama in many battleground states, and he has a pretty significant electoral vote lead. Even some traditionally Republican states are within striking distance. So, some of the national polls may not be picking up Obama's increased state-level support.

By the way, about the Newsweek poll... The first one seems to have oversampled Democrats, so the poll was skewed toward them, giving Obama an artificial 15-point lead. The latest poll seems to have oversampled Republicans by about 5-6 percentage points; it also oversampled some other demographic groups. So, that's why the latest poll looks much better for McCain. In reality, Obama's probably up by about 5 pts. Not a large lead, but still a significant one, considering that the last few elections have been decided by about 7 pts. or less. Until McCain starts making head way in the battleground state polls, he and his supporters should be worried. Obama has relatively easier path to the presidency. He just has to win Kerry's 252 electoral votes from 2004, which it looks like he's going to do (he has opened up significant to substantial leads in the states Kerry won), and then pick off Ohio, which is wary of McCain's free trade policies, or 2 or 3 other states that are leaning his way. On the other hand, McCain has to hold most of Bush's states, about 11 of which are leaning toward Obama, are too close to know who's really ahead there, or McCain has a slight lead them (few fit this category). That's quite troubling news for McCain, especially since he's being challenged by Obama in traditionally Republican states like Indiana, Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and even Montana and North Dakota!

Why is any criticism of Obama denounced as "ignorant" by his supports? Why is it bad to say B Hussein Obama...last time I checked that was his middle name...

I haven't met one person who thinks Obama will win in the past several weeks. They "hope" he will win but it looks reaaly bad for the Democratic nominee. If Obama got Hillary as his VP they would have won.

Most people think it will be McCain.

Obama is too strange. We are sick of Obama.
The Muslim thing is just a turn off.

Have we Americans gone on a trivial pursuit quest?
We all have heard and we all seem to agree with the statement "united we stand, divided we fall" Yet, it appears to me that even though we would publicly say "Amen" to that sentiment, why then do we still relish in trivial pursuits that divide us? Is it possibly because we have become so numb and cynical about any real hope in addressing the real issues that should really matter, or could it be that we just don't care anymore - or does caring require way too much effort? Therefore, we just casually go about our daily lives in a daze welcoming without thinking rationally, questioning or researching whatever the media spoon feeds us. The days of Walter Cronkite professional journalism are long gone. We are now plagued with these 24/7 viral cable news programs that are more so "Entertainment Tonight" than real substantive news. This is probably the most defining moment in our American history since our hard fought Independence from British rule. We have a high moral responsibility and a choice to make America in this presidential 2008 election year in doing the right thing. It is indeed a defining moment in changing the face of our politics in a unified way to change things for the better and accomplish great things for all Americans and for generations to come, if we so choose. Or, we can decide to continue on the same old, same old path, while hoping for a different and better result. The choices we make and the consequences of those choices are up to us. As the legend Bob Marley proudly sung..."open your eyes and look within - are you satisfied with the life you're living?" More than 80 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction - the highest such number since the early 1990s, according to a new survey. The CBS News-New York Times poll released in April, 2008 showed 81 percent of respondents said they believed "things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track." That was up from 69 percent a year ago, and 35 percent in early 2002. If you're so fortunate enough to be a lucky member of the 20 percent whom think otherwise, then no need to continue on reading. However, if you're like most that crave for positive change, it does take some effort; because any change that's worthwhile starts first with you ("The man / woman in the mirror"). These are serious challenging times in our American history. We're in an economic recession, higher than high gas prices, the price of food is increasing at an alarming rate making it much more difficult for Americans to feed their families, a broken health care system that desperately needs to be reformed, mortgage crisis, failing infrastructure, deterioration of the American family, sub-human senseless crimes on humanity, war in Iraq, war in Afghanistan, the possibility of starting a war with Iran, an over-extended military that's been poorly served and neglected for all of their unwavering and selfless service to this country, environment, education, foreign policy, a free trade system that's broke, immigration, and we have become a nation that's more divided than united. Think about it people - here we are in the year 2008 AD and this presidential election has been reduced to a divisive debate about race, ignorant racial baiting and F.E.A.R (False Expectations Appearing Real) mongering, and political self-serving partisan positioning in deciding who will be our next president - more so than discussing, debating, and solving all of the insurmountable and problematic issues that should really get our attention and matter. The entire world is intensely watching our 2008 presidential election - And, it's certainly not because of the oldest presidential candidate - it's clearly because of "Obama-mania". I wonder what the world must be thinking. The rallying and support for an Obama for America presidency will show the entire world that the words of our founding fathers hold true and are self-evident to our United States of America core beliefs, and that those words were not just words in the futile pursuit of achieving the American Dream for all Americans. It saddens me that we're moving backwards in time to a time that was so dark, shameful, and divisive in our history, more so than moving forward towards a brighter and hopeful future for the "United" States of America. Let's hope and pray that I am wrong!

Have we Americans gone on a trivial pursuit quest?
We all have heard and we all seem to agree with the statement "united we stand, divided we fall" Yet, it appears to me that even though we would publicly say "Amen" to that sentiment, why then do we still relish in trivial pursuits that divide us? Is it possibly because we have become so numb and cynical about any real hope in addressing the real issues that should really matter, or could it be that we just don't care anymore - or does caring require way too much effort? Therefore, we just casually go about our daily lives in a daze welcoming without thinking rationally, questioning or researching whatever the media spoon feeds us. The days of Walter Cronkite professional journalism are long gone. We are now plagued with these 24/7 viral cable news programs that are more so "Entertainment Tonight" than real substantive news. This is probably the most defining moment in our American history since our hard fought Independence from British rule. We have a high moral responsibility and a choice to make America in this presidential 2008 election year in doing the right thing. It is indeed a defining moment in changing the face of our politics in a unified way to change things for the better and accomplish great things for all Americans and for generations to come, if we so choose. Or, we can decide to continue on the same old, same old path, while hoping for a different and better result. The choices we make and the consequences of those choices are up to us. As the legend Bob Marley proudly sung..."open your eyes and look within - are you satisfied with the life you're living?" More than 80 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction - the highest such number since the early 1990s, according to a new survey. The CBS News-New York Times poll released in April, 2008 showed 81 percent of respondents said they believed "things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track." That was up from 69 percent a year ago, and 35 percent in early 2002. If you're so fortunate enough to be a lucky member of the 20 percent whom think otherwise, then no need to continue on reading. However, if you're like most that crave for positive change, it does take some effort; because any change that's worthwhile starts first with you ("The man / woman in the mirror"). These are serious challenging times in our American history. We're in an economic recession, higher than high gas prices, the price of food is increasing at an alarming rate making it much more difficult for Americans to feed their families, a broken health care system that desperately needs to be reformed, mortgage crisis, failing infrastructure, deterioration of the American family, sub-human senseless crimes on humanity, war in Iraq, war in Afghanistan, the possibility of starting a war with Iran, an over-extended military that's been poorly served and neglected for all of their unwavering and selfless service to this country, environment, education, foreign policy, a free trade system that's broke, immigration, and we have become a nation that's more divided than united. Think about it people - here we are in the year 2008 AD and this presidential election has been reduced to a divisive debate about race, ignorant racial baiting and F.E.A.R (False Expectations Appearing Real) mongering, and political self-serving partisan positioning in deciding who will be our next president - more so than discussing, debating, and solving all of the insurmountable and problematic issues that should really get our attention and matter. The entire world is intensely watching our 2008 presidential election - And, it's certainly not because of the oldest presidential candidate - it's clearly because of "Obama-mania". I wonder what the world must be thinking. The rallying and support for an Obama for America presidency will show the entire world that the words of our founding fathers hold true and are self-evident to our United States of America core beliefs, and that those words were not just words in the futile pursuit of achieving the American Dream for all Americans. It saddens me that we're moving backwards in time to a time that was so dark, shameful, and divisive in our history, more so than moving forward towards a brighter and hopeful future for the "United" States of America. Let's hope and pray that I am wrong!

Have we Americans gone on a trivial pursuit quest?
We all have heard and we all seem to agree with the statement "united we stand, divided we fall" Yet, it appears to me that even though we would publicly say "Amen" to that sentiment, why then do we still relish in trivial pursuits that divide us? Is it possibly because we have become so numb and cynical about any real hope in addressing the real issues that should really matter, or could it be that we just don't care anymore - or does caring require way too much effort? Therefore, we just casually go about our daily lives in a daze welcoming without thinking rationally, questioning or researching whatever the media spoon feeds us. The days of Walter Cronkite professional journalism are long gone. We are now plagued with these 24/7 viral cable news programs that are more so "Entertainment Tonight" than real substantive news. This is probably the most defining moment in our American history since our hard fought Independence from British rule. We have a high moral responsibility and a choice to make America in this presidential 2008 election year in doing the right thing. It is indeed a defining moment in changing the face of our politics in a unified way to change things for the better and accomplish great things for all Americans and for generations to come, if we so choose. Or, we can decide to continue on the same old, same old path, while hoping for a different and better result. The choices we make and the consequences of those choices are up to us. As the legend Bob Marley proudly sung..."open your eyes and look within - are you satisfied with the life you're living?" More than 80 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction - the highest such number since the early 1990s, according to a new survey. The CBS News-New York Times poll released in April, 2008 showed 81 percent of respondents said they believed "things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track." That was up from 69 percent a year ago, and 35 percent in early 2002. If you're so fortunate enough to be a lucky member of the 20 percent whom think otherwise, then no need to continue on reading. However, if you're like most that crave for positive change, it does take some effort; because any change that's worthwhile starts first with you ("The man / woman in the mirror"). These are serious challenging times in our American history. We're in an economic recession, higher than high gas prices, the price of food is increasing at an alarming rate making it much more difficult for Americans to feed their families, a broken health care system that desperately needs to be reformed, mortgage crisis, failing infrastructure, deterioration of the American family, sub-human senseless crimes on humanity, war in Iraq, war in Afghanistan, the possibility of starting a war with Iran, an over-extended military that's been poorly served and neglected for all of their unwavering and selfless service to this country, environment, education, foreign policy, a free trade system that's broke, immigration, and we have become a nation that's more divided than united. Think about it people - here we are in the year 2008 AD and this presidential election has been reduced to a divisive debate about race, ignorant racial baiting and F.E.A.R (False Expectations Appearing Real) mongering, and political self-serving partisan positioning in deciding who will be our next president - more so than discussing, debating, and solving all of the insurmountable and problematic issues that should really get our attention and matter. The entire world is intensely watching our 2008 presidential election - And, it's certainly not because of the oldest presidential candidate - it's clearly because of "Obama-mania". I wonder what the world must be thinking. The rallying and support for an Obama for America presidency will show the entire world that the words of our founding fathers hold true and are self-evident to our United States of America core beliefs, and that those words were not just words in the futile pursuit of achieving the American Dream for all Americans. It saddens me that we're moving backwards in time to a time that was so dark, shameful, and divisive in our history, more so than moving forward towards a brighter and hopeful future for the "United" States of America. Let's hope and pray that I am wrong!

This race IS close and it should NOT be. It is close because the Democrats (or at least a relatively small number of activist caucus goers in some minor states - and if you don't believe that, just look at Hillary Clinton's domination in the latter half of the primary - which happened to include a lot of the important big swing states) nominated a candidate who is not well equipped to win a general election.

Obama is going to win because of the "Powell endorsement???" You Obamites are in serious denial. I simply can't stop laughing at the drivel.

The liberal Dem being in a DEAD HEAT with the GOP candidate at this point in the campaign is unprecedented. Do you understand it, boys and girls? -- UNPRECEDENTED. At this point Mondale was a winner, Dukakis was a king, Kerry was planning his victory parade.

Obama is not going to lose. He's going to get smoked. He'll take 10 states, tops. And that is a pathetic indictment on him and the Democrat party, because while McCain would make an excellent president, he is an awful candidate. He makes Bob Dole look polished.

The oft-cited poll numbers indicating that most people believe the nation is going in the wrong direction do not necessarily mean that the people want a president from the other party. The Congressional approval rating is in single digits. I think there is a widespread disenchantment with the entire political class and with the generally poor leadership offered by both political parties. If I tell a pollster that I think the country is headed in the wrong direction, this does not indicate that I think anyone has the answers or solutions, nor does it imply anything about my party preference.

Unfortunately for Obama his race will kill his prospects. His victory over HC was with liberal democrats and against a woman.Many whites (incl white hispanics) would not vote for him.Though not openly mentioned many whites see his victory as loss of world white/european decline.

Four months ago I called the election for Hillory, hands down. I could be wrong. She has the savvy to pull it off, Obama doesn't. Not that I support the lying, cheating, thief.

Obama is Jimmy Carter reincarnated. Candidate of change. Change to what? "Very Loud Silence".

As to the Ignorance, Bigotry, and Racism I've seen in the last year, America needs to be ashamed of itself. I retired from the Navy and returned to rural midwest. My peer agegroup... Wherever I go, within 20 minutes of joining a conversation, I B and R catch up. Twenty years serving the country in the real "Blue Man Group" (Navy), fighting bigotry in the ranks, I was not prepared to face the people who's rights I'd been defending. At least they respect my service and shut the hell up when I put their hatreds back in their faces.

Sad state of affairs

It's often pointed out that Democrats can often win the popular vote but not the electoral college. But it may be that Obama can hold on to a small lead in the right states and lose by a huge margin in states that aren't so important. Like McCain might win Kansas by twenty points and Obama might get so unpopular that he only takes California by five points and Ohio by two points. McCain might take Alabama by thirty points and Obama might take Pennsylvania by four, and so on. Maybe Obama might catch McCain in Florida and win that state by one point and McCain might take Wyoming by seventeen points. That might give McCaim a popular vote win, but an electoral loss. It could work either way with the state-by-state polls I'm seeing. As Hillary just learned, Obama might arguably be less popular, but have a better ground game. He might win the general the way he did the primary, where the popular vote was, at a minimum, in doubt. Obama might wind this thing up looking a bit ineffectual, like he did in the primary, but we may end up seeing that he got the states that matter and still wins.

TO Len, who complains about broken voting machines and voters who are disenfranchised because they have to prove they are who they claim to be: You have four months to help your party review the local voting process, arrange for observers and to assist people who are confused about how to get proper ID. So get to work and help. There is plenty of time to make a difference and be sure that old lady down the street or the homeless man have proper ID. Complaining is useless.

Obama won't win in solidly REpublican states. More taxes, more spending are NOT good economic policy. Americans are not such rubes. Democrats say "hope", but what they are is "cynical".

This isn't a "quasi" incumbent race. As much as the Dems like to think it is. This is the 2000 election. . .the culture wars thing. . .even thought Dems think the conservatives are dead in the water. I didn't think the Democrats could come up with a more unsuitable candidate than Billary, but Obama is. . he's a Marxist. . .and that I pray doesn't play yet in this country. After the misery that old demon philosophy has caused, we need to bury it. .

Why should the closeness of the race be surprising? Most polls seem to indicate that there is, at the very least, 15% of the population that would never vote for a black man, regardless. Such is the antipathy of these folks, that any white man would be an alternative, regardless.

To all the women voters, Being that Mccain did what he did to his ex wife, is that what you want your daughters to be looking up to and being told what to do with their bodys.?

Reading the comments made by some of the ignorant,biggoted,individuals that have written against Obama dissapoints me to see this ignorance in America. Whether you are for or against Obama is of little importance compared to such ignorance and bigotry. All I can say is please use your latent insecurity else where. Bob Seattle

Reading the comments made by some of the ignorant,biggoted,individuals that have written against Obama dissapoints me to see this ignorance in America. Whether you are for or against Obama is of little importance compared to such ignorance and bigotry. All I can say is please use your latent insecurity else where. Bob Seattle

This Chris is a real clown, Mcain had three months all by himself. It is Mcain who should be up by 15 points.

Last month everyone was saying Oh!!! the Newsweek poll is way out there with the New York Times poll.

Now this month the Newsweek poll is the best thing since slice bread.

Chris, I watched you tonight, and I was under the impresion that you were much smarter than that, you appear to be a specalist in all things small.

JR "Plus, the polls don't tell the true story: they are underestimating turnout among blacks, latinos, and young voters. Obama in a landslide."

You need to keep in mind that the Republicans will disenfranchise minority and young voters like they did in 2004 with tricks like putting broken voting machines in minority precincts. And they now have a new trick: "voter ID" laws that will disenfranchise even more voters than in 2004.

I have no doubt that if we had a free press and an honest election system, Obama would win in a landslide. But in the real world, we stand at the brink of the establishment of a permanent corporate welfare state run by the GOP and promoted by their clients in the corporate media.

Wake up. Most voters are not going to tell you who they will vote for until after September. Polls showing a candidate in the lead or not at this point are totally meaningless. As a life long democrat, I would say (if polled) at this stage of the game I'd vote Barrack, (honestly I would never pull the lever for him). I'm on the band wagon with the media bashing Bush,however, the truth is though, he has kept me safe. I sincerely doubt that Obama would have the same record. I think a vote for Obama is an open invitation for terrorists to hurt this country far worse than the 9-11 attacks. While I don't care too much about McCain, at least I'll be comforted with the knowledge he will do all to prevent us from being hurt by those holding a grudge against us.

One thing to watch will be how much of a boost Obama gets from the speech he makes at the Democratic convention. That may be the first time that some independent voters see Obama make a somewhat long speech. If his speech is anything like the one he gave in 2004, it may give him a huge boost among such voters.

The big story of this election is how the corporate media are furiously spinning their news to benefit McCain, one of the best friends the telecom industry ever had in the Senate.

But that's a story you won't find anywhere in the media, except in the hundreds of thousands of responses to these message boards that they set up as safety valves to let people vent the enormous outrage their Soviet-style campaign coverage generates.

It's much easier and more economical to let people vent on these boards and then ignore them than to round up dissidents like the Soviets did. Why bother arresting non-entities whose opinions don't matter?

I love it! You guys are HILARIOUS!
It is great to see some light-hearted good humor in this discussion.
Whoever wins the Election, one thing is sure...not a darned thing will change for many, many years. So buckle-up, save your money and buy a load of Treasury Bonds. Rates (and prices) are going UP!

There's nothing at all surprising about the closeness of the race. Obama's opponent isn't the hapless and clueless John McCain; it's the multibillion-dollar corporate media and their high-income pundits whose greatest concern is that a Democratic president may raise their taxes. The corporate media destroyed John Kerry by spreading the Swift Boat lies as if they were legitimate criticism of a war hero. They'll also serve as conduits for the lies of the radical right against Obama and will cover up for McCain's gaffes and blunders. Notice how quickly the corporate media cut off discussion of the claim made by McCain's top economic adviser, Foreclosure Phil Gramm, that America is a "nation of whiners." If Jeremiah Wright had said something that obnoxious and elitists, the punditocracy would have been screeching about it for weeks.

CHRIS! Citing John McCain's lead over Obama among independents as a fallacy. I can't believe you've made this mistake. What do we know? Compared to 2004, the number of people polled that self describe themselves as Democrats has vastly increased, and Republicans decreased. What does this say? Many disaffected Republicans will not suddenly become Democrats, they will become - you guessed it - INDEPENDENTS. People who generally agree with Republicans but are fed up with Bush are likely to be these disaffected Republicans who are increasingly calling themselves Independents!

Every time I read these posts, I am struck by the incredible bitterness of so many you folks on the right (mostly guys, it seems). And then there's the total lack of sophistication . Calling Obama "B. Hussein Obama is just pathetic. Go ahead and call me elitist. Thank you. I'd rather be an elitist a rube.

Obama is not about "change" he is about restlessness.

Newsweek polls aren't worth the paper they are printed on. In fact, I would be highly suspicious of most polls. (Look at how far off or inconsistant the primary polls were for NH(D), SC(D), and MI(R).)

The state-to-state polls are even stranger. According to electoral-vote.com, Barack Obama is leading by one point in both Indiana and Ohio. In 2004, Bush won Indiana with 60% of the vote, but barely won Ohio.

Obama is leading in Montana, which went easily for Bush both times, but the "ultimate swing state" of Florida is trending strongly for McCain.

Other polling oddities so far this year have shown close Obama by only 4 in New York and McCain by only 4 in Texas. Polls have showed the candidates tied the least expected "swing states" of North Dakota and Massachusetts.

And then there is the absurd: One poll has Obama winning Arizona. An AOL poll has McCain winning all 50 states (and DC).

Right now the score is

McCain 0
Obama 0

and it will stay that way until November.

This elitist post by jeanrenoir says it all about the Obamaists:
(refer to Posted by: jeanrenoir | July 14, 2008 9:14 PM )

Reality Check: A half-breed with a Muslim dad, that says it all about who and what B. Hussein Obama is.

Look at any of your friends with parents from 2 different cultures: mental confusion, restlesness, no internal compass, always in mental pain.

That is Obama; not sure if he's black or white, flip-flopping between the 2 polarities. A half-and-half with no wholeness.

He ain't presidential material. Maybe he'd make a good professor in some lefty college, where he could preach his latest religious gibberish "revelations."

But he can never come to rest, can never make a stand, always "searching" for which polarity is correct.

Sorry, he doesn't have gravity.

NO WAY would I vote for Obama-

This country may go socialist some day- but without help from me!!! (It's all documented, his friends, political affiliations, religious affiliations for the past 20 years-Marxist socialism)

Once upon a time, people could deny anything-but the Internet makes all that information possible these days.

Read up on James H Cone's philosophy and you'll understand what Obama listened to under Jeremiah Wright for 20 years- if that doesn't open your eyes- nothing will!

McCain 08

Dexter - there is no gambling at the WaPo.

Get with the program people. Obama is for change and change is the future and the future is not the past man. We need the future because without is we would be stuck in the past and the past ain't so good, because Hitler is in the past man. We need a socialist/communist like Obama to run things for a while so we can all taste the joy of free health care and free money checks. I want a future with free everything and much less work, so I'm voting for the future and that means Obama!

The election is not decided by the popular vote being tracked by the polls described in this story. Keep your eye on the electoral vote. Accurate tracking at http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Why does Chris always look like he has marbles in his mouth? Is there a new product out called Obama "Balls" or something.

Posted by: | July 14, 2008 9:06 PM

The marbles thing is funny. I think Chris looks like that to. Marbles LOL...

Gina Walters

please learn what a "muslim" name is. To say an arabic name is a muslim name is pure ignorance.

Thats like someone claiming an Irish name is a Catholic name, and therefore the person must be Catholic.

If anyone thinks the race is close, give me Obama, and you may have McCain. We'll bet at evens for any amount you like and we'll post our liabilities to escrow so there's no funny business.

And no like $1 bets. We do it for $5000 and up.

Or we can do it in Euros, Swissy, Yen, Loonies, Ozzies, Kiwis, Rands, Argentinian Pesos, whatever. Must have notional value of 5000 USD.

It's simple -- Obama is a fraud selling nothing. "Hope" and "Change" soubnd good out of the box but as the campaign wears on, not even the tingly-thighed in the leftist media can cover-up everything Obama says and does.

His relationship with terrorists, hate-mongers like Wright, his being indebted to the mob in the form of his house via Tony Rezko, his insults of white people (his grandmother is a "typical white woman") and his attacks on working people who "cling" to their beliefs rather than hating America, his thinking there are 57 states, his not knowing what the Joint Chiefs do, his angry and bitter and racist wife, his promising Jerusalem to the Jews one day, the Arabs the next, his 180 degree turn on NAFTA and public financing...

At this point the only reason Obama is still in the race is because he's tall and he talks pretty and he sends tingles up towards Democrats' groins.

let me see Obamas coalition is made up of Blacks, Uppity left leaning whites, hard core socialists, whites that are on some sort of guilt trip about race, and young people, and they dont even turn out. not a winning coalition. If obama gets 45 percent of the vote in november he can declare victory.

The pathetic thing about the American electorate is how many of the geezers within it are still such Archie Bunkers--so racist, so paranoid, so filled with, yes, the bitterness which every conservative from George Wallace to McCain's campaign has counted on to manipulate these morons into voting against their economic interests, much less America's, which even after the total debacle in Iraq, these people are unequipped even to guess. So they always falls back on things like their myopic perception of "character" and whether the candidate is someone they want to drink beer with. The electorate used to be much less stupid. Even gas heading for $5 can't wake these dolts up, or help them connect the dots staring them in the face. THAT's why McCain's not only so close, but the favorite of Democratic realists in this race. Americans are simply too racist and stupid to put Obama over the top.

McCain beating Obama is no major upset unless your an out of touch elitist.

Why does Chris always look like he has marbles in his mouth? Is there a new product out called Obama "Balls" or something.

Jim: It's a common fallacy that increasing domestic oil production would decrease the price of gas. The way the market is set up, any oil produced domestically would enter the *world* oil market. The world market is so huge, this increase would be easily absorbed and would not have a significant effect on total supply.

Your belief that Democrats have somehow caused high gas prices by opposing domestic drilling is just a line politicians feed you to promise you the impossible.

Oil prices have risen primarily because of massively increased demand from China and India, and possibly because of speculation and other factors. Inform yourself, don't let politicians feed you misinformation.

The race is not close. Obama is leading 296-221 in the electoral college, with Virginia, Nevada and North Dakota tossups.

Obama's necessary move to the center has caused most of the polling results. Chomskyites are livid, but have little choice. Independents remember McCain from 2000 and wonder about the sincerity of Obama on his new-found centrist message. As the campaigns progress Obama will stay on message, consistently persuading independents that his change of heart is real. As time passes and voters forget the primaries Obama will slowly but surely open a lead over McCain. Look for an Obama win in November with a margin of 4-5% of the vote over McCain.

Nickyle should have Chris's job. As seems to be the case more times than you would think. Commentors here sometimes have better points than Chris without much effort.

Jim,.... Nancy and Barack caused you to pay 4.15 for gas? Do you have any idea what the cost of a barrel of oil needs to be at the wholesale level before it becomes profitable to drill on U.S. shores and sell that oil to refineries?

What president and former president would benefit from being able to sell their oil wholesale?

See don't just make a statement,..... try and understand who benefits from having you believe he's looking out for you.

You honestly thought Bush did that for you?? You're the same guy that thinks we're actually looking for Bin Laden.

Follow the money, it's the easiest way to find the truth.

Sorry, but John McCain, who conveniently will turn 72 on the September 2, the second day of the Republican National Convnention, will never be elected.

This country wants to turn the page and move forward.

At least 69 year old Ronald Reagan made an effort to look younger: dying his hair black, wearing make-up, doing publicity stunts involving outdoor activities.

McCain has done the opposite. He looks 81 instead of 71.

Gina you don't think religion matters but you think he should change his name because what?

In a free country it shouldn't matter what your names is (I think a wrestler said that once) you should be judge by the content of your character.

You don't know Obama or McCain any better than I do and I'm from Chicago.

Unless something sends me the other way Obama has my vote, not because McCain isn't a nice guy I just don't think he has a clue as to where he wants to take the country and if he does I haven't heard it.

Nadar and Barr have no shot at getting elected and I would prefer my vote go to someone who has a idea of where to take the country which I agree with and can articulate those ideas.

Every time you pay $4.15 a gallon to fill up your car, remember 2 names, Nancy Pelosi & Barack Obama.

Pelosi is stopping us from getting our own oil and leaving us at the mercy of Arab sheiks, and Obama will be a rubber stamp for her when she is president.

If McCain would take the gloves off and treat Obama the way Obama has attacked him through his surrogates, McCain will thrash him.

Response to my response

If you think voting for McCain who was poking Cindy before he divorced his first wife and got married to Cindy a month after his divorce was final (oh yea he's honest) is your candidate then more power to you.

I am in south Florida and old people are more aware of it then the young people. They are not offended, they don't want some old codger running anything. Most older people today are very progressive. They use computers, send emails and look at someone like Mccain and don't like what they see. They know more then anyone what old is. 72 is very old. There are few jobs in the country you could get hired to do at that age. Maybe a greeter in Wal Mart but certainly not one of the most demanding jobs in the world, POTUS. Old people are the first to say, "I'm not voting for that old fart".

++++++++
For those of you harping on John McCain's age, beware. Each time you do, you can believe that older voters take offense and will vote for John over an empty suit. With O it is hype. With John he wants what is best for America.

Be prepared for John 85%,O 10% and others 5% come November 4, 2008.

Posted by: Richard | July 14, 2008 6:42 PM

Oh and can everyone stop insulting the Candidate they oppose and actually start talking about the Content of Chris's post...?

My point is that during the campaign I have never heard him say that his father was muslim and that there's nothing wrong with being muslim. He vehmently denies his muslim roots as though its wrong to be a member of that religion. Also, you may not have a choice regarding your name, but lots of people change their names- we live in a free country. Besides, how many devout Muslims have you come accross wtih all 3 Christian names? Again, just to be clear, I don't think religion matters at all. Its the cover-up and the obfuscation thats disturbing.

redleaf2k writes "I can't for the life of me understand why someone who supported Hillary would say I'm going to vote for McCain. Hillary and Barack are in lock-step on issues and solutions but you would vote for a McCain for what reason? ....."

People vote for whoever they think is the best candidate (in whatever category theythink is important). For me it is honesty and integrity. I am a Democrat and I think Obama is seriously lacking in both. So I amy vote for McCain or fall back to Nader, who sis as honest as there can be.

Hmmmm

This is surprisingly one sided for chris... he only seems to be looking at national polls which are useful for giving an indication of national trends in opinion but in any close race are mostly irrelevant.

It is true that his campaign can not be pleased that his average national lead, as calculated by such sites as Pollster and RealClearPolitics, has dropped from about 5 points to between 3 and 4. Yet it is also true that his campaign will be far more interested (and delighted) by STATE polling showing him locking down all the 04 Kerry states and pulling ahead in several 04 Bush states such as Colorado (9 EV), New Mexico (5),Iowa(7) and Ohio(20), running even or a touch ahead in Virginia(13)and being Competitive in Misourri(11)and Nevada(5). He also seems to be competative in such highly unlikely place as Montana(3) North Dakota(3) Alaska(3) and North Carolina(15). Polling for Florida(27)seems to be all over the place but certainly seems to be far from locked down for McCain. The odd poll also shows Obama competative in Indiana(11) and South Dakota(3) and Georgia (15).

When one considers that Obama only needs 18 more electoral votes that John Kerry managed in 04, I can see no reason for all that optimism expressed by these Republican pollsters Chris has been talking to.

(all polling mentioned in this post can be found at one or all of Pollster.com, FiveThirtyEight.com or RealClearPolitics.com)

Obamas fund raising is effortless. 30 million in June without even trying. We give every month. His money is not going anywhere.
---------
Apparently, there is some question about Obama's ability to raise as much money as they anticipated. Sure they will raise enough but fall short of their goals (which I thought were overstated.)

Also one political analyst pointed out that Obama must continue his fund raising efforts after the convention because he opted out of public funding, whereas McCain will be free to campaign full time. I did not see that coming. I wonder if the Obama campaign factored that potentially large amount of time and effort into their strategy.

Posted by: Nickyle | July 14, 2008 5:19 PM

You honestly ask why all three of Barack's name are Muslim? Ah, that's what his parents named him,..... I suppose you had some choice at 1 day old on what went on your birth certificate?

Obama is a liar, a racist, unaccomplished and an empty suit.

A sampling of comments

1. Barack is 100% fraud. Constantly trying to play JFK, Ronald Reagan and MLK. ...

2. Any woman who thinks Barrack Obama is on her side is in denial. Get over your pinko education and get real. His agenda is 1. Black 2. Male 3. Money ...

3. Obama is a liar(even though Hillary's Bosnia trip is right up in your eyes)

All code for the same thing ... Obama is black ... black ... black.

Black or not he's still the best man in the election ... let it sink in ... I bet that hurts.

(bytheway I'm not)

Gina, great point. Also, I would like to know why the Obama campaign's been discriminating against muslims at his campaign events. They seat white people (mostly women) in the background area that appears on tv so that people see that Obama is not a black candidate (which he his based on his 90% plus support from the black community). That is discrimination- if you're dressed in muslim attire, you cannot sit in that area; check this out-
http://www.mlive.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/06/barack_obama_campaign_apologiz.html

For those of you harping on John McCain's age, beware. Each time you do, you can believe that older voters take offense and will vote for John over an empty suit. With O it is hype. With John he wants what is best for America.

Be prepared for John 85%,O 10% and others 5% come November 4, 2008.

What alot of you people dont realize is that controversy sells daily papers, magazines and up the ratings on these talk and media shows. So anything remotely negative is going to get people's interest and get you guys blogging on these sites(another way to up ratings). When it boils down to it no one knows who is going to win because we still have very racist and bigoted people in the USA who would rather believe anything the media puts and the media is only pimping all of us for ratings. The America public has always and always will be very fickle when it comes to politics. This election has me baffled though because I just dont get it how someone would want another four or eight years of the bush policies and how any real democrat can vote for mccain over barrack except for the fact that "oh by the way did you know he is black"

Here is question rgarding Sen. Obama that may turn out to be qute important in the Genera Election. Of all the candidates only Obama was born after Dec 31, 1959. As such, he is subject to Selective Service registration when he turned 18. IF HE DID NOT, it is a crime punishable by $250K and/or 5 Years in prison. Furthermore and more important, if he did not, he will not be eligible for any Executive Branch position. Considering his turbulent mind and hisory of his youth, he may not have reistered with the SS. If he did not and that information is made public now, then someone ele can be nominated. If he did not and that info cam out after the nomination, then John McCain will become the President.

What alot of you people dont realize is that controversy sells daily papers, magazines and up the ratings on these talk and media shows. So anything remotely negative is going to get people's interest and get you guys blogging on these sites(another way to up ratings). When it boils down to it no one knows who is going to win because we still have very racist and bigoted people in the USA who would rather believe anything the media puts and the media is only pimping all of us for ratings. The America public has always and always will be very fickle when it comes to politics. This election has me baffled though because I just dont get it how someone would want another four or eight years of the bush policies and how any real democrat can vote for mccain over barrack except for the fact that "oh by the way did you know he is black"

I don't think religion matters but if Obama is going to deny his muslim roots, can he please explain why all 3 of his names (first, middle, last) are muslim names? Also, his father was muslim. Why deny your roots? Thats the shameful part- the part about obfuscating your background.

OK, so we have a poll. I remember the night before for Ross Perot, polls say - 7-9%, he gets - 17%, hummmmm - a little bit off the mark. Here's the real deal - count in the 4-5 MILLION new voters, those that registered just to vote democratic, and you have a 62% to 37% base McCain needs to work up from. Give a 5% margin of error for my thinking - still at 57% to 42%. You media guys crack me up - anything to try to keep the viewers watching so you can pull in those ad $$$$'s! It's already over.

Barack is 100% fraud. Constantly trying to play JFK, Ronald Reagan and MLK. Which is pathetic considering he has zero accomplishments. Not only but now he has zero credibility. McCain, get your s--t together, we cannot afford a third term of bush, and if anyone seen Obama without a teleprompter you would see this stammering fool doesn't have a clue.

Answer to FLOWNOVER: The earlier Newsweek poll is a statistical aberration because, other than 3 polls taken within the Obama family, it's the only poll of many that have shown that kind of lead for Obama. We don't refer to polls as being likely "statistical aberrations" when they fall in the same range as the majority of other polls. Let me guess. You're a Democrat, right?

Cilliza is a Clinton supporter. Always has been and always will be.

In any event, in the end, most American will not vote for John McCorpse.

Obama is a liar. That alone is reason enough for me to vote for McCain. I voted for Hillary in the primaries; I knew where she stood on issues. With Obama, I have no clue because he keeps changing his postion on multiple key issues purely for political gain. Plus he blatantly lies (he's even contradicted himself on his pastor scandal by exposing his own lies about never having been present when Wright was making racist speeches). With McCain, I know where he stands and its close enough to the center that I can vote for him. Plus I want to see Hillary run in 4 years time!!

Any woman who thinks Barrack Obama is on her side is in denial. Get over your pinko education and get real. His agenda is 1. Black 2. Male 3. Money
If your a Latino of either gender, this is a typical approach to you and you don't recognize it, "Hey Bro, we both be colored and the whitey he be against us" Total and unalterable crap and yet the usual uneducated amongst us love to be pandered to, so get ready for the truth over the next 4 months.

JamesCH has it backward in his post. Rasmussen is the only poll consistently using "likely voters" and McCain polls best there.

"The fact Obama is not ahead by 20 [to] 25 points is because his policies are too far left for the American people," said Republican direct mail consultant Dan Hazelwood."

That's not it ... there's the same quality of silence in the air now as there was just before the voting opened in Ohio. The same tightlipped look on peoples faces who weren't going to vote for Obama no matter what ... but didn't want to say why.

You could here it in what they were willing to believe ... muslim non christian jeremiah wright lapel pin. But it was all code for he's black ... black ... black ...

If the MSM covered Senator McCain with the same critical eye it covers Senator Obama, it wouldn't be close! Had Senator Obama and his campaign had the same mistakes and mis-steps that Senator McCain's had ALL IN ONE WEEK, the media would have killed his campaign.

Do the people who write these articles not have any grasp of polling techniques? The wild-assed polls that have shown Obama 12 or 15 points ahead have always been of "registered voters" or, even worse, "adults". That's the primary reason that the Newsweek polls differed so much over such a short time. The first poll was of "adults" and the second was "registered voters". Newsweek made such fools of themselves the first time (comments often refered back to their last poll showing Mondale beating Reagan in 1984) that they had to change from "adults" to "registered voters". The farther away from "likely voters" that you get, the Democrat ALWAYS polls better than the Republican. The reason? The Democratic message always appeals more to those who aren't serious about the election.

I voted for Obama in the primaries. Now that I have spent some time researching his votes and his affiliations in the Dirty political machine in Chicago I will be voting Nader again. And I have not even mentioned FISA and faith based expansion......wow.

DNC motto.......We can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, guaranteed .

Post#2

I can't for the life of me understand why someone who supported Hillary would say I'm going to vote for McCain. Hillary and Barack are in lock-step on issues and solutions but you would vote for a McCain for what reason?

That tells me you didn't really care what Hillary said you were going to vote for her because she's a woman. The guy that beat her feels exactly the same way she does on almost every issue! Have you compared their voting records? If they where any more identical they would be twins.

You wanna protest Hillary not getting the nomination by electing a guy that doesn't reflect the ideas of the country or the democratic party? That doesn't even make logical sense. It's like saying I couldn't get in heaven so to punish God I'm going to hell,..... what??

Barack's not perfect,... but he certainly isn't Bush. I'm actually a fan of McCain but I also think the best Presidents don't spend 20+ years in Washington get elected to the top job without having a lot of markers called the minute they take that oath of office.

Bush the 2nd was a outsider sort of but I guess we swung and missed with him,.... twice!

I can't tell anyone how to vote but I can tell you I think you're and idiot for suggesting you would vote for a "R" in this election year over a "D". They've had 8 years to prove they can govern and look what it's got you,...

Wasn't it Reagan that said "are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?" Use that logic and then pick your candidate. Picking by sex, race, hair color, movie preferences or any other superficial "selectors" is just stupid.

There is enough stupid people in the world, try not to add yourself to that already long list.

"She was winning all the big primaries; some by 40pt."

Which big primary did she win by 40%?

It is not terribly instructive to look at the national polls -- not when reputable recent state polls have Obama up 10 points in Iowa, 17 in Minnesota, 8 in Michigan, 5 in Missouri, 5 in Colorado, 8 in Washington, 10 in Wisconsin, and 11 in New Hampshire; and statistically tied in Virginia -- Virginia, for crying out loud!

You people in the MSM seem determined to keep McCain in this election if it kills you -- even in the face of strong evidence that he's got a steep uphill climb to even be competitive.

Like a balanced budget is on McCain's radar, Semtex? He hasn't the foggiest how he'd even begin to pay for any of his proposals.

obama has promised 96 billion in new spending and said a balanced budget is not on his radar,democracy is dead when 3 out of 5 are gettimg a goverment check,were up to 2 out of 5 now.

The Iraq war is winding down and the next president can assist Iraq into the Japan of the middle east or abandon it into the Vietnam of the middle east. Sadly, McCain does not clearly aim for the first and Obama obviously aims for the later. The media has bashed Iraq as Bush's mistake so long that America seems to lose her will to succeed. Iraq is at the cross-road that it will be the type of ally the US wills it to be.

These polls aren't surprising. Hillary Clinton was beating McCain in the polls whereas Obama was trailing him. She was winning all the big primaries; some by 40pt. margins and yet the Democrats chose to SELECT Obama instead of the qualified, experienced Hillary!! As a devoted, loyal supporter of Hillary Clinton, I am routing for McCain!! I would NOT vote for Obama if someone had a gun to my head and a knife to my heart!! He is a LIAR & A FRAUD!!

The Dems DESERVE TO LOSE!!!

So sad to see your Alzheimer's stuck with you beyond the grave, Ronnie.

If John McCain's campaign showed half the skill and professionalism of Obama's he would be 10 points ahead. Obama has accomplished nothing in his life that even remotely qualifies him to be President. It is hard to imagine a less worthy candidate.

I've just rose from the dead to tell the Democrats on this blog to quit crying like a bunch of babies. Leave the poor reporter alone because he is just reporting on the obvious. As for the accuracy of all the polls, please it is only July. I didn't whip Jimmy Carter until November and that man was a real wimp.

Makes Barack Hussein look like he's superman. Let's wait and see what happens when there are commercails against Hussein asking why he stayed in a church that preached anti-semitic remarks, anti-white remarks, and anti-American remarks. I guess we can contrast Hussein's 20 year stay at the racist church with McCain's 5 year stay at the Hanoi Hilton.

I think it is already too late for Obama. He is now been defined by the McCain campaign and he doesn't even know it. Yes, you left wing, kooky Democrats have nominated the one person who couldn't get elected dog catcher in America.

Let's take a poll, which POTUS Candidate would be more likely to burn the American Flag:

Which POTUS Candidate would let a known terrorist have a fundraiser for him:

Which POTUS candidate would attend this fundraiser:

Which POTUS Candidate listened for 20 years to the raving, manical rants of racist preacher:

Which POTUS candidate amy or may not be a MUSLIM:

Which POTUS candidate pretends to be a Christian, but condemns Christians for clinging to their Bible:

Which POTUS Candidate believed it was okay for a city to ban handguns:

Which POTUS candidate changed his mind about a city banning handguns-(all in one day)

Which POTUS candidate promised to rely on Public Funding for his campaign, but changed his mind and blamed it on the other guy:

Which POTUS candidate wanted to retreat from Iraq during the primary, but changed his mind after he won:

Which POTUS candidate refused to wear his flag pin, but now never leaves home without one:

Now ask yourself, why are the polls a dead heat?

Apparently, there is some question about Obama's ability to raise as much money as they anticipated. Sure they will raise enough but fall short of their goals (which I thought were overstated.)

Also one political analyst pointed out that Obama must continue his fund raising efforts after the convention because he opted out of public funding, whereas McCain will be free to campaign full time. I did not see that coming. I wonder if the Obama campaign factored that potentially large amount of time and effort into their strategy.

"Posted by: AK | July 14, 2008 1:52 PM As for the debates, don't confuse the ability to speak in a Preacher-Man voice from a TelePrompTer with the ability to perform well in debates. As good as Obama is with prepared remarks, he's lackluster, irritable, and defensive off-the-cuff."

McCain has NEVER been much of a debater, and what mental agility he ever had has mostly deserted him. A couple of senior moments on national TV during a debate and the Republican Party's collective groan will drown out any hope of John eventually recovering. He was always best in small meetings where he had some protection from really off the wall questions, and an ability to duck, not answer, or ignore the really inconvenient ones.

Just try to imagine what the result will be when a moderator asks the candidates to explain how al Maliki's call for a timetable for withdrawal effects their Iraq policy. If he gets the question first he will look so bad Barack will be given a freebie response, and if he has to follow Barack he will be just a mumbling, stuttering shadow of George himself, to whom he will be instantly compared.

John is coasting, conserving his energy, and losing ground. Barack is out staking out turf in really red states, and having some success. John may exhaust himself just trying to get back red ground he will lose before Denver.

Let us all pray that the campaign pace he will have to maintain in September and October doesn't kill him.

I think Obama has given back a point or two since the post-primary bump, which in retrospect is to be expected. The initial glow has worn off and your average non-rabid swing voter is busy with BBQs. So a couple points of soft support have drifted away as low-info voters know McCain, probably don't realize quite how much he's shifted since he ran in 2000, and are going to wait until labor day to start thinking hard about the differences between the candidates.

I would hope that Obama is stockpiling ammo for the fall. I would assume we will hear a lot more about McCain's major position shifts on things like the Bush tax cuts in the fall, and about his lack of a coherent, fiscally responsible budget.

Voter drives, cellphone-only voters, etc? Heard that before in the primary and 2004. Let's see it actually happen once before we start talking about anything.

Wow... I cannot believe how many times I have read here and in other comment venues about how the media has it out for Obama, or that somehow the MSM and pollsters are in collusion to make it look like a close race. "Earth to Obama supporters"... time for a reality check:

According to U.S. News & World Report, polls reveal that 1/3 of the voters are not fully committed to either candidate aka SWING VOTERS. And among these swing voters, 1/3 lean Obama, 1/3 lean McCain, and 1/3 are undecided. That accounts for differing demographics of political ideology in the polls (swing voters can change their positions several times) as well as methodology (some are weighted whereas other polls are truly random.)

I find it ironic that Obama supporters are focusing on state polls that give Obama the lead... but negate to reveal those where McCain is closing the gap, such as New Jersey. Yeh, sure that may be a "pie in the sky" view, but not in the context of a similar comparison for Obama in Georgia. (Note: It appears that Barr... now a Libertarian... is taking votes from both Obama and McCain. Which makes sense if one actually looks at the Libertarian platform.)

National polls do count to gauge the public viewpoints and are especially useful when compared to past Presidential election national polls. Although electoral votes do decide who wins, there is a reasonable correlation with the popular vote. Saying that there is no correlation is being disingenuous.

Today's Rasmussen polls have Obama up 10% in Iowa (a state Bush won) and they are giving him an 80% chance of winning that state. Given Obama's support of ethanol and McCain's talk of "excessive agricultural and ethanol subsidies" I'd say Obama has a 90% chance of winning in Iowa.

They also have a poll out today showing Obama with an 8% lead in Michigan.

Kerry, who was a stiff won 252 EVs. Add in Iowa, that's 259. Add Colorado, where the DNC is being held, that's 268. New Mexico, and Bill Richardson's latino support, and that's game, set, match for the dems.

Plus: there still Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, No. Carolina, Nevada, Montana, N. Dakota, maybe even Georgia and Texas.

This isn't going to be close at all.

Those polls give people like you something to talk about. I was called recently by a pollster and it was a joke. Every question was designed to get a predetermined answer. It was a joke and I hung up after a few minutes. Just from the sense in the street it is easy to see Obama will win going away. But then the commentators would have nothing to talk about then.