http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/ en Copyright 2008 Thu, 27 Mar 2008 07:57:41 -0400 http://www.movabletype.org/?v=3.36 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Ever since Barack Obama delivered his widely publicized speech on race last week, we've been waiting for some reliable poll results to gauge the impact his words had on defusing the hubbub created by Rev. Jeremiah Wright. New numbers are available in the form of the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll -- one of the best polls, to our mind, out there these days. The data suggests that Obama has passed his first major crisis -- not, perhaps, with flying colors, but passed it nonetheless. Asked whether Obama has "sufficiently addressed the [Wright] issue", 32 percent of the NBC/WSJ sample said he had while 26 percent said the he needs to do more to explain the situation. Roughly three in ten of those tested said they had either not seen the speech or had no opinion of it (who are these people?!). Not surprisingly, a look inside those numbers reveals http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/03/obamas_speech.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/03/obamas_speech.html Parsing the Polls Thu, 27 Mar 2008 07:57:41 -0400 If the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination is all about Iowa, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) has reason to smile this morning. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll -- released last night -- puts Obama at 30 percent in Iowa followed by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) at 26 percent and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) at 22 percent. While pollsters will -- rightly -- warn that Obama's "lead" is within the survey's margin of error, meaning that it is not statistically significant, the symbolic import of the Illinois Senator topping Clinton in Iowa is HUGE. The strongest argument in Clinton's favor is the aura of inevitability that surrounds her; if that is taken away she becomes far more vulnerable. The top line numbers of the poll are undoubtedly good news for Obama. But what do the internals tell us about the race? The Fix asked Post polling director Jon Cohen for http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/11/parsing_the_polls_inside_the_p.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/11/parsing_the_polls_inside_the_p.html Parsing the Polls Tue, 20 Nov 2007 09:40:00 -0400 The Iowa caucuses will again lead off the presidential selection process and -- especially on the Democratic side -- the candidates are treating it as the whole shebang, knowing that a win or a loss there could serve to kick-start or destroy their campaigns. At the moment Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) holds a narrow lead on the Democratic side while former Gov. Mitt Romney -- fueled by millions in ad spending in the state -- has a consistent double-digit lead over his next contender. Romney went up with ads months ago in Iowa and has worked the state harder than any other Republican candidate. The money spent as well as the grassroots campaigning have paid off as Romney has without question the strongest organization in the state. That organization was on display in August when Romney won the Iowa Straw Poll -- a key early test of support in http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/11/parsing_the_polls_why_it_is_so_1.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/11/parsing_the_polls_why_it_is_so_1.html Parsing the Polls Fri, 09 Nov 2007 18:53:00 -0400 Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y) was under attack throughout Tuesday night's Democratic debate in Philadelphia, valiantly fighting off some of the hits landed by her opponents, but also getting knocked off her balance by a few. It's easy to get lost in the weeds of the various attacks and counterattacks, but the broader picture is almost always the more important one. That broad picture: Six men regularly ganging up on the lone woman on the stage. As stated here before, Clinton's male competitors must be careful not to look as though they are bullying her during these forums. For what it's worth, the Clinton campaign did everything they could today to make that case, even posting a video on YouTube called "The Politics of Pile On." Women -- especially Clinton's contemporaries -- may have some doubts about the Democratic frontrunner, but they also don't want to see her attacked by http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/11/parsing_the_polls_gender_polit.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/11/parsing_the_polls_gender_polit.html Parsing the Polls Thu, 01 Nov 2007 05:00:04 -0400 It doesn't take a polling expert to understand that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's showing in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll is a major moment in the campaign. Clinton, as the Post's Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen write in today's newspaper, has opened up a whopping 53 percent to 20 percent lead over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in the Democratic presidential primary fight with former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) even farther behind with 13 percent. Compare that to the Post's early September survey in which Clinton took 41 percent to 27 percent for Obama and 14 percent for Edwards. On their face, Clinton's numbers are impressive -- over 50 percent in an eight-way contest is a remarkable achievement at any level but much more so in a presidential contest. But, look deeper into the numbers -- as we can thanks to Cohen and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta -- and the http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/10/parsing_the_polls_inside_the_c.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/10/parsing_the_polls_inside_the_c.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 03 Oct 2007 07:00:00 -0400 In handicapping her chances for the nomination, there is perhaps no stronger argument in Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-N.Y.) favor than the fact that most Democrats believe she represents their best chance of getting the White House back in 2008. With their party out of power in the Oval Office for the past seven years, the priority for many Democrats appears to be winning -- no matter what that entails or who they have to nominate to make it happen. The newest NBC/WSJ poll provides some intriguing numbers that suggest that the power of Clinton's electability has grown in recent months and may well provide a key to understanding her continued lead in national surveys. Let's Parse the Polls! We start with the horse race numbers in the NBC/WSJ poll. Clinton led with 44 percent followed by Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) at 23 percent, and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) at http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/09/parsing_the_polls_clinton_and.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/09/parsing_the_polls_clinton_and.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 19 Sep 2007 08:00:00 -0400 With less than 24 hours to go until Fred Thompson's formal entry into the 2008 presidential race, The Fix thought it made sense to scan the available polling data to figure out whether Thompson waited too long to get into the campaign for the GOP nomination. Fred Thompson speaks at the Midwest Republican Leadership Conference in Indianapolis on Aug. 25. (AP Photo) Roll Call columnist Stu Rothenberg already has an opinion: Thompson blew his best chance by not getting into the race in the spring or summer. "In delaying his entry into the Republican race, Thompson has looked indecisive and weak," writes Rothenberg in in his Monday column (subscription only). "He has lost potential supporters and contributors to other campaigns. And he has limited the strategic options of his campaign. But maybe more than anything else, he gave an opening first to Romney and more recently to Huckabee that neither http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/09/parsing_the_polls_is_thompson.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/09/parsing_the_polls_is_thompson.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 05 Sep 2007 05:00:22 -0400 National polling at this stage of the presidential election tends to reveal more about voters' general impressions of the candidates rather than give any real indication as to who might actually win the party nominations. But, as the saying goes, you never get a second chance to make a first impression. First impressions in politics, as in life, tend to have an exaggerated amount of influence on how voters wind up viewing candidates. So we were quite interested by a new Gallup poll that asked a national sample of voters how much confidence they had in the seven leading candidates for president on issues like the economy, the war in Iraq, terrorism and health care. Let's parse the polls! We start with the national sample of 1,011 adults that Gallup released on Tuesday. On three of the four questions, it was the best known candidates -- Hillary Rodham Clinton and http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/08/parsing_the_polls_doing_the_ri_1.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/08/parsing_the_polls_doing_the_ri_1.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 01 Aug 2007 08:33:09 -0400 With the war in Iraq shaping up to THE issue in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, we were intrigued by a question in the new Washington Post/ABC News poll that asked people what should be done about the current number of American troops in Iraq. The vast majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents -- not surprisingly -- supported either an immediate withdrawal (29 percent) or some sort of non-specific "slower" decrease (46 percent) in troop levels. Eight percent thought the American troop presence in Iraq should be increased and 16 percent thought it should stay the same. What's most interesting from our perspective is what those folks who support immediate withdrawal look like demographically. Thanks to the Post's polling director Jon Cohen and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta we got a look inside the numbers. Let's Parse the Polls! A look at the profile of the 29 percent who http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/07/parsing_the_polls_inside_immed.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/07/parsing_the_polls_inside_immed.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 25 Jul 2007 09:49:48 -0400 During The Fix's much-needed vacation last week, the Post polling staff launched a fascinating project looking at self-identified independents and their impact on American politics. The project includes a major survey conducted jointly by the Washington Post, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University, graphical presentations of the data, and an analysis by Post senior political writer Dan Balz and Post polling director Jon Cohen. While perusing the survey data we gained some insight into the gains made by the Democratic Party in 2006. More independents now lean Democrat. But are those gaines sustainable through 2008? Let's Parse the Polls! From 10,000 feet, it is clear that Democrats have made inroads with independents. The Republican brand remains tarnished nationally. Forty-one percent of independents hold a favorable view of the national GOP and 55 view it unfavorably. National Democrats fair slightly better. Fifty-five percent of independents felt favorably about the national party, http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/07/parsing_the_polls_understandin_1.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/07/parsing_the_polls_understandin_1.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 11 Jul 2007 07:00:00 -0400 Anyone who has picked up a newspaper or watched television in the last week is well aware of the speculation surrounding a possible presidential run by New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg. After announcing his departure from the Republican Party last week, Bloomberg is now the country's most famous independent politician. He also happens to be the lone billionaire considering a run for president in 2008. As a political observer, we've tried to balance the excitement generated by Bloomberg's bolting from the GOP with the cold, hard facts about the difficulty of a third party bid for president. For all the hoopla surrounding Ross Perot in 1992, he wound up with 19 percent of the vote nationwide. When we're in a pinch, we usually turn to the polls, seeking answers in the raw data. What do the numbers tell us about Bloomberg's chances? Let's Parse the Polls! A new CNN/Opinion http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/06/parsing_the_polls_bloombergs_i.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/06/parsing_the_polls_bloombergs_i.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 27 Jun 2007 06:00:00 -0400 Watch cable television for an hour and you're likely to hear some pundit utter the following phrase: "National polls don't matter." The pundit will usually go on to note that the presidential nominating process is a state-by-state affair, not a national contest. For as long as we can remember the pundits have been right. National polls have served as interesting conversation catalysts, with little empirical value beyond proving who has the highest name identification. Surveys done in traditional early nominating states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, on the other hand, have been considered true indicators of candidate strength. But does that conventional wisdom make sense in the Fast Track Campaign? We reached out to some of the best and brightest pollsters in both parties to get their opinions. Let's Parse the Polls! First, the landscape. The two most recent national polls in the 2008 race were conducted by http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/06/parsing_the_polls_do_national.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/06/parsing_the_polls_do_national.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 20 Jun 2007 06:00:29 -0400 A series of national polls conducted in the last few weeks show that former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) is a force to be reckoned with in the coming fight for the 2008 Republican nomination. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is making conservatives' hearts swoon. (AP) A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey put Thompson second in the primary horserace behind only former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. In a Fox News/Opinion Dynamic survey in the field June 5-6, Thompson took 13 percent, good for third behind Giuliani (22 percent) and Arizona Sen. John McCain (15 percent). The Post's own poll, conducted in partnership with ABC News, had Giuliani at 34 percent compared with 20 percent for McCain and 13 percent for Thompson. That got us to thinking: What exactly does a Thompson supporter look like? Let's Parse the Polls! We'll start with the L.A. Times/Bloomberg survey, since that data is http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/06/parsing_the_polls_whos_a_fred.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/06/parsing_the_polls_whos_a_fred.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 13 Jun 2007 05:00:22 -0400 All eyes were on Iowa yesterday where Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) became the latest Democratic presidential candidate to unveil a proposal to reform the healthcare system. The campaigns are already battling over the relative merits of the competitions' proposals -- a spokesman for former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) released a statement Tuesday afternoon deriding "any plan that does not cover all Americans" as "simply inadequate." While Iraq continues to dominate the issue landscape, concerns about the rising costs and limited availability of health care are also front of the mind for many voters. Although a majority of voters believe the health care system is broken and want to fix it, there are real questions about how much change is needed and what that change should look like. So if health care will be front and center in the fight for the Democratic nomination and, in all likelihood, for the presidency http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/05/parsing_the_polls_healthcare.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/05/parsing_the_polls_healthcare.html Parsing the Polls Wed, 30 May 2007 10:06:18 -0400 Sifting through the transcript of last week's Republican presidential debate, we came across this exchange between former Govs. Mitt Romney (Mass.) and Mike Huckabee (Ark.) about the role of religion in the public square. Romney: "We have a separation of church and state. It's served us well in this country. This is a nation, after all, that wants a leader that's a person of faith, but we don't choose our leader based on which church they go to." Huckabee: "I said, in general -- and I would say this tonight to any of us -- when a person says, 'My faith doesn't affect my decision- making,' I would say that the person is saying their faith is not significant to impact their decision process. I tell people up front, 'My faith does affect my decision process.' It explains me. No apology for that." (For the full debate transcript click here.) http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/05/parsing_the_polls_religion_in.html http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/05/parsing_the_polls_religion_in.html Parsing the Polls Thu, 10 May 2007 06:00:33 -0400