Connolly Far Ahead, His Poll Shows
Gerald E. Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors and candidate for the congressional seat of retiring Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), released poll results today giving him a 23-point lead over Democratic rival Leslie L. Byrne.
Connolly's survey of 400 likely voters in the June 10 Democratic primary for the 11th Congressional District was conducted by Lake Research Partners and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
If the election were held today, 45 percent said they would choose Connolly, 22 percent chose Byrne and 1 percent selected Douglas J. Denneny. The survey did not include the fourth Democratic contender, Lori P. Alexander, who had not entered the race at the time of the survey.
The poll, conducted in early January, contrasted sharply with Byrne's survey, done around the same time and giving Byrne a 39 percent-29 percent lead over Connolly. Byrne's poll also gave Denneny 8 percent and gave Byrne a slight edge in name recognition, 94 percent to 92 percent, over Connolly.
Connolly said Byrne's poll is questionable for a couple of reasons: It's unlikely, he said, for Denneny to capture 8 percent of the vote this early in the campaign given his newcomer status to Fairfax County politics. Secondly, Connolly questioned the Byrne poll's name recognition numbers given that he just spent $1 million promoting himself last fall in his reelection campaign for chairman. Connolly said he thought even his name recognition number in Byrne's poll was too high.
Connolly's poll, in contrast, gives him 79 percent name recognition and Byrne 63 percent.
Joe Fox, Byrne's campaign manager, said Byrne "absolutely" stands by her numbers, and he said Connolly's dramatic numbers "defy credulity." Fox also questioned why Connolly waited so long to release his poll, which is out-dated by now.
"A poll is a snapshot in time," Fox said. "Even if those numbers are to be believed, they are two months old."
By Amy Gardner |
March 10, 2008; 10:48 AM ET
| Category:
Amy Gardner
,
Election 2008/Congress
,
Gerald E. Connolly
,
Leslie L. Byrne
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Posted by: Not Gerald E. Connolly | March 10, 2008 1:24 PM
Ask Mr. Connolly why his pollster didn't use random calls among likely democratic primary voters or geographic balance? This poll was "fixed". Doug Denneny gets more than 1% for just NOT being Byrne or Connolly.
Posted by: Factchecker | March 10, 2008 2:39 PM
Lake Research Partners vs. Joe Fox?
Fox says he'll stand by the numbers that the unknown Denenny has 8%? That doesn't pass the smell test, Joe.
Byrne has been running since October '07.
Byrne 22%
Connolly 45%
Byrne is maxed out with her self-earned negatives. Only thing for Byrne to do is go negative against Connolly. Problem for Byrne is it didn't work when she ran against Mark Warner and called him a "racist rat" Primary voters remember Byrne, so she isn't going to pick up the undecideds
Webb is a good guy, called Connolly "outstanding candidate." Don't see Webb wanting to be part of a negative campaign against any democrat, no matter how much Byrne claims he "owes" her. Loyalty to Byrne won't include character assasination.
Posted by: Connolly will win this thing | March 10, 2008 5:39 PM
These early, candidate sponsored polls are nonsense. If both Leslie and Gerry are up so much- why do they need to spend $5-10K to tell them something they already know?
Of course- the key here is the undecided's. Even if we take Leslie and Gerry at their word- I do not see either getting above or beyond the own numbers- in fact I would argue that they will probably split the strong D base which leaves a newcomer like Denneny plenty or space to capture the middle and bring in new voters.
Posted by: Max | March 10, 2008 6:14 PM
Joe Fox says Celinda Lake's poll numbers showing Connolly way ahead "defy credulity?"
Lake and her firm Lake Research Partners are highly respected by the DCCC, labor, and other national pollsters. Who the heck is Joe Fox, other than another Byrne spin doctor?
Both the Connolly and Byrne polls show their respective candidates ahead. Who do you trust more: Lake Research Partners or the no-name polling company used by Byrne?
One thing is certain - both polls show a large group of undecideds who will make the difference in the June primary.
As for Denneny, he is an afterthought. It is doubtful he will raise the money to boost his name recognition or get his message out to the voters of the 11th District.
Posted by: Neutral Observer | March 10, 2008 6:48 PM
Amy, did you actually see the polls for Byrne and Connolly, or are you just going by what they have told you?
Posted by: PHS | March 10, 2008 9:03 PM
The Connolly campaign widely released the polling methodology with an email cover letter by Celinda Lake's people.
Connolly is way up according to one of the most professional and respected pollsters.
Haven't seen anything like that from Byrne's group, just a wishy washy out of context memo.
Two things: If Byrne's numbers are real, she should release the same methodology and validation as Connolly did, or admit that they were bogus push polls.
How does she admit her numbers were bogus? By going negative right away against Connolly. If you are behind, you go negative right away. If you are ahead, you take the high road.
Byrne was way behind Mark Warner and went negative right away on him. Byrne is old style career politician. That is how they operated.
Posted by: Old Campaign Watcher | March 10, 2008 10:59 PM
I'm going to write in Tom Davis!
Posted by: Jim Webb | March 11, 2008 5:27 PM
Connolly Has Big Head, His Photo Shows
Posted by: | March 13, 2008 2:45 PM
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Davis should learn from Webb and run as a Democrat.