House Republicans' Secret Weapon: The Ballot Box
As lawmakers prepare to head back to town next month to try to resolve how to finance transportation projects, it is looking increasingly like the special session might repeat of the pattern of the past two years.
That pattern goes something like this: Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), backed by some Democratic lawmakers, pushes a big tax increase. House Republicans, most of whom have little connection to heavily congested Northern Virginia, kill the proposal. Lawmakers leave town knowing full well it's only a matter of time before they return to repeat the entire exercise.
But House Republicans will be taking a big risk.
With a presidential election this year and a gubernatorial race next year, House Republicans can not afford to leave the impression that they are skirting their obligation to make highways safer and less congested.
Although the tax issue cuts both ways in a high-stakes election, it could reinforce a perception by some Northern Virginians that the state GOP is out of touch with their needs.
Having lost five House seats in the past six months and with all 100 seats up for election in 2009, the GOP is going to need a way to get past this latest debate without being tagged as obstructionist on transportation.
For many Republicans, Kaine's calls for higher sales taxes and vehicle registration fees are not an option. If they support Kaine's plan, many GOP legislators open themselves up to a challenger from the right in the spring primary.
But there is a politically safe option for House Republicans, one that could give them cover to oppose Kaine's tax plan.
They could try to push the issue back on the Democrats by advocating that it be put before the voters in a referendum this fall.
A referendum wouldn't go over well with many Democrats, especially one called for November. Because it is a presidential election year, there will be an influx of voters who don't pay close attention to state politics, and many of them will be hesitant to support new taxes.
And the tax issue has a way of bringing likely Republican-leaning voters to the polls, which could all but guarantee a victory in Virginia for Sen. John McCai n (Ariz.), the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.
At a news conference Monday to announce GOP opposition to Kaine's tax proposal, House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (Salem) and Majority Whip M. Kirkland Cox (Colonial Heights) appeared to begin goading the governor into allowing the issue to be put to the citizens.
"Let's put it on the ballot this November when Senator [Barack] Obama is on the ballot," said Cox, who added that he thinks Kaine will find out "a lot of people are really struggling and are going to tell him they don't want their taxes raised."
Griffith and Cox noted that Kaine's proposal to raise the sales tax from 5 cents to 6 cents in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads to pay for transportation improvements closely resembles measures put before the voters in those regions in 2002.
Despite intense support from then-Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) and the state's business community, voters in both regions overwhelmingly opposed the proposal to raise the sales tax by half a percentage point.
Kaine spokesman Gordon Hickey said the administration is not interested in another referendum. The governor backed the 2002 referendum when he was lieutenant governor.
"Why put it to referendum? It just delays things," Hickey said. "The governor's position is the General Assembly needs to step up to the plate and do its job."
Lawmakers in neighboring Maryland have embraced the referendum as a way to get past their years-long debate over slot machines.
This year, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) introduced a proposal to legalize slot machines at select locations as a way of helping to resolve a $2 billion budget deficit.
The Democratic-controlled House was skeptical of O'Malley's approach, threatening to derail slots as it did when Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) was governor.
Instead of forgoing hundreds of millions of dollars in slots revenue, O'Malley and House Democrats agreed to let the voters decide the issue Nov. 4.
"I've always been a supporter of letting the people decide," Griffith said.
There would be big differences between a referendum in Virginia on transportation taxes and Maryland's ballot question on slots.
In Maryland, polls indicate broad support for legalizing slots. And because the state is heavily Democratic, there is little concern among party leaders about the issue having an effect on the election.
In Virginia, it's not even certain that a tax referendum would be approved in Northern Virginia, much less more conservative Hampton Roads or the rest of the state.
A transportation tax referendum could pass Fairfax County this year, where residents easily rejected the 2002 referendum. But it probably would be a close vote in the outer suburbs of Loudoun and Prince William, two counties key to Democrats' prospects of winning statewide.
But calls for a referendum, even if the GOP knows Kaine won't go along, might become a secret weapon for House Republicans looking to limit the fallout from their no-tax stance.
If the GOP offers a referendum as a solution but Kaine and Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax) block it, House Republicans will have cover going into 2009. Democrats will have trouble convincing many voters that Republicans are obstructionists when they are willing to let the ultimate form of democracy decide.
And if, by some small chance, Democrats agree to put the issue on the ballot this year or next, Republicans can rally their base to the polls, as they did in 2006 when they backed a referendum to ban same-sex marriage and civil unions.
Or House Republicans could kill Kaine's bill and decide not to offer any viable alternative.
Under that scenario, there will still be a referendum in 2009. But it will be on the political futures of GOP Dels. Jeffrey M. Frederick (Prince William), Joe T. May (Loudoun), and David B. Albo, Timothy D. Hugo and Thomas Davis Rust, all of Fairfax County.
By Tim Craig |
May 15, 2008; 10:16 AM ET
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Virginia General Assembly 2008
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Posted by: Todd | May 15, 2008 11:14 AM
"...the GOP is going to need a way to get past this latest debate without being tagged as obstructionist on transportation."
Too late. They're already known to be obstructionist on transportation.
Todd -- they already put it to the voters in NoVa and Hampton several years ago. They voted it down.
Posted by: Fairfax, VA | May 15, 2008 11:25 AM
How about a referendum to require that all state tax revenues (income, sales, gas, whatever) raised in a jurisdiction, be it city or county, be spent in that jurisdiction? If Southside Virginia wants bad roads and bad schools and low taxes, so be it.
Posted by: kguy1 | May 15, 2008 11:35 AM
We know state Republicans are obstructionist on transportation. This is the #1 local issue for NoVA voters. It's part of why you're seeing a blue shift in the region.
Posted by: Centreville, VA | May 15, 2008 12:15 PM
I believe that the original referendum that was voted on my NVA and Hampton didn't gurantee that the taxes collected there would stay there. Also, the government could just change their formulas that already take taxes from NVA and Hampton to other jurisdictions. Basically the voters didn't trust the Lawmakers.
Posted by: Tom | May 15, 2008 12:53 PM
Why should anyone who has "little connection to heavily congested Northern Virginia" pay to fix it? This is a problem caused by the NOVA NIMBYs and it's up to them to fix it.
Posted by: get over it | May 15, 2008 1:26 PM
If you use that logic why should N. Virginia pay for anything further south? If we are to be our own state, there wouldn't be much of an objection as we'd keep the money that was generated here locally. However if we continue to pay for stuff further south then they should also understand they need to pay for our roads also. If only to keep the money flowing around the state. States are business models.
Posted by: Elizabeth | May 15, 2008 2:23 PM
Did southern virginia ruin itself to the extend that the north did?
This is a problem caused by the NOVA NIMBYs and it's up to them to fix it.
Posted by: get over it | May 15, 2008 3:41 PM
Fixing the transportation issue is easy, however the pandering politicians of both parties find it politically inexpediant to do so. There is no need to raise taxes.
Solution - round up and deport the estimated 500,000 illegal aliens in the metro area. They have no legal standing to be here in the first place & their removal would return traffic to a tenable situation.
Of course, anyone who would suggest something as outrageous as enforcement of the law...god forbid...must be a biggot, or so it will be spun by the WaPo...
Posted by: Problem Solved | May 15, 2008 3:55 PM
I can't believe ignorants still exist. Do you think just by deporting illegals the problem will be fixed. As you might not know, Virginia doesn't allow illegals to get driver's license. I think the General Assembly needs to do the job their constituents send them to do and pass a bill that will make both parts happy. They need to find a solution to this problem.
Posted by: Ignore the haters | May 15, 2008 4:23 PM
I don't vote for progress, I vote for NIMBYism!
Posted by: NOVA | May 15, 2008 4:26 PM
Forget the slot machine as a total solution. Do the full casino route of slots, POKER and blackjack. It has heleped the economy in Colorado and can do the same out here in Northern VA. By the way, make them non-smoking and they will come. It will not only bring in tax revenue from income, but sales tax income for food and drinks.
Posted by: Steve M. | May 15, 2008 4:37 PM
Lets review again
Warner Billion dollar tax increase
HB 3202 money for transportation
State budget doubled last 10 years
Enough is enough learn to prioritize
The facts are there is plenty of money for transportation. Nobody has the guts to reduce funding anywhere else.
Posted by: Where did all the money go | May 15, 2008 4:42 PM
Kguy...
Get over it...
Hardly ruined, just crowded. Some of the Novans (Novinions?) Exactly how do you make a connection to NIMBY? The Wilson Bridge project, for example, IS in my back yard and is much welcomed. The Mixing Bowl used to be a mess every rush hour. Not so anymore.
BB
Posted by: Fairlington Blade | May 15, 2008 4:56 PM
Fairlington Blade, why are you using examples of things that were done to defend the opposition to things that weren't?
Wilson Bridge? No new capacity because the anti-road freaks want lanes reserved for bikes or something equally useless. All you get are wider shoulders in the Eastern Seaboards most significant bottleneck.
No NIMBYs? Explain to me what the Eisenhower Avenue beltway exit is for.
Posted by: off with their heads | May 15, 2008 5:13 PM
And about the useless Eisenhower exit, you need a reason other than "to exit and reenter to skip past stopped traffic"
Posted by: off with their heads | May 15, 2008 5:14 PM
Northern Virginia doesn't need roads, it needs bikes!
Posted by: bikes rule | May 15, 2008 11:09 PM
"I've always been a supporter of letting the people decide," Griffith said.
Griffith went on to talk about how his whole political career has been about avoiding doing the one thing they wanted him to do - make some decisions.
Posted by: Anonymous | May 16, 2008 12:54 PM
Say no to progress, say no to roads, let virginia die a slow and fumigated death
Posted by: Virginia Democrats | May 19, 2008 7:58 PM
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A referendum is a great idea, and really, the only fair way to decide. Those who fear a referendum are just telling on themselves....