Sabato Puts Senate race in Democratic Corner
Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia professor known for his Election Day observations, today released his most recent take on the U.S. Senate races this November which includes the popular prediction that Virginia's open seat likely will go Democratic.
Sabato expects Democrats to pick up between three and seven seats to add to their razor-thin 51-49 margin in what is shaping up to be a tough political environment for Republicans across the nation. But that's still less than they need to reach 60, the number needed to shut down filibusters.
In Virginia, Sabato predicts a "likely Democratic pickup" with former Democratic governor Mark R. Warner defeating former Republican governor James S. Gilmore III. He noted that the state has "undeniably" become more Democratic in recent years with wins for govenor in 2001 and 2005, U.S. Senate in 2006 and the state Senate in 2007.
"The man who started the movement to the Democrats, former Governor Mark Warner, is very likely headed to the Senate in 2008,'' he writes in his Crystal Ball. "He may or may not be handicapped by the Democratic presidential nominee, but he has such wide appeal among independents that he should be able to make up any lost ground, and it is far from impossible that Barack Obama (unlike Hillary Clinton) could carry Virginia."
If Warner succeeds retiring Sen. John Warner (R), Democrats in Virginia will control the governor's mansion and both U.S. Senate seats for the first time since January 1970.
"Virginia's years as a Republican stronghold are well over," Sabato writes.
By Anita Kumar |
June 19, 2008; 8:48 AM ET
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Election 2008/U.S. Senate
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James Gilmore III
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Posted by: NoVA | June 19, 2008 10:47 AM
NoVA, well, obviously Republican failures feed into Democratic success. But Gilmore can share the blame fairly broadly with other members of his party. Let's not forget Mr. Allen's egregious Macacca episode. Or the delegates' irrational phobia against any sort of broad-based revenue stream, in favor of dubious schemes targeting unpopular minorities (speeders, urban residents) that ultimately prove unconstitutional and/or hugely unpopular.
The Republican's biggest problem is perfectly reflected in their choice of Gilmore to run against Warner this year in a closed convention rather than an open primary. The party is utterly in thrall to rural, extremely culturally conservative elements that dominate the party machinery. Moderates are being driven out of the party (Davis). The Republicans are ceding the center, willfully and intentionally, in a state that is becoming ever more urban and diverse. This is not a recipe for success.
Posted by: drossless | June 19, 2008 11:13 AM
By the way, it takes more than 60 of one party to "shut down" the filibuster. You're assuming 100% party loyalty and that never happens.
Posted by: Anonymous | June 23, 2008 7:21 PM
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Mr. Sabato is not exactly going out on a limb with that observation, is he.
Well, at least in his dotage, he's becoming a little more objective and less of a subtle shill for one side.
I suggest that Governor Gilmore was more of a factor in starting the movement to the Democrats in Virginia. Mark Warner was simply the Right Man, in the Right Place, at the Right Time. He won by 97,000 votes out of 1.9 million cast. Not exactly huge.
Without the Gilmore debacle to set the tone of that election, would Warner have beaten Mark Early?
There's a reasonable chance that 97,000 GOP voters fed-up with Gilmore fighting with everybody using common sense, including his own level-headed GOP Delegates and Senators, felt that the madness had to stop and voted Democratic.