With Virginia shaping up as a battleground in the presidential contest between Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.),a few counties and cities will be key in deciding whether the state goes blue this year for the first time since 1964.

Just as the national map can be sliced into blue, red and purple states, so, too, can Virginia's 134 counties and cities.

In Northern Virginia, political analysts say, Obama will probably win in Alexandria and Arlington and Fairfax counties, given recent voting patterns. Democrats also usually rack up big wins in Richmond, Norfolk and Charlottesville. McCain will probably have a strong advantage in rural counties in western and southern Virginia.

What follows is a list of 10 Virginia locations that could be up for grabs.

Shortly after Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) called a special session to try to tackle transportation funding issues, the governor gave a blunt assessment of what he hoped to accomplish by advocating a tax increase even though he didn't have the support of the Republican-controlled House of Delegates.

"It will be very productive to either try to find a solution or make it plain to people who are standing in the way," Kaine said in an interview with The Washington Post in May. "We are going to make something happen or let the public see who is obstructing, and frankly, that is one of the reasons why Democrats have won elections in Virginia."

But 10 days into the special session on transportation -- legislators have been on vacation for six of those days -- it remains uncertain whether any solution will be found or whether the governor will score any of those political points.

So what's going to happen next week during the special session on transportation? Probably not much, but who knows? So we are not even going to try to make a prediction. We'll leave that to others. Here is a sampling of predictions -- as a well as a few partisan shots -- from current and former state legislators and lobbyists.

Democratic Senate candidate Mark R. Warner and the presumptive GOP nominee for president, Sen. John McCain, have at least one thing in common.

Both start as the early favorite to win in Virginia this year -- Warner more so than McCain -- but they also have to determine how to interact with the other man from their party whose names also appear on the ballot statewide.

It's a potentially delicate dance that could determine whether one party or the other has a chance at sweeping both contests in Virginia.

Here are the answers to the election questions asked in last week's Virginia Notebook.

On Friday and Saturday, Republicans gathered at a Richmond convention center to select their nominee to fill the seat of retiring Sen. John W. Warner (R). They also elected a party chairman and delegates to the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

Thousands of party activists will converge on the Greater Richmond Convention Center this weekend for the state Republican convention.

Republicans will select their nominee for the race to fill the seat of retiring Sen. John W. Warner (R). They will also elect a party chairman and delegates to the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis.

The convention will offer insight into the future direction of the party and clues into upcoming state and federal elections. Here are 15 questions the convention might help to answer. You can check back next week to find out the answers

Virginia Sen. James Webb, ending a nationwide publicity tour, is fueling speculation that he will be on Sen. Barack Obama's shortlist for vice presidential candidates.

But don't start making Obama-Webb signs just yet.

As lawmakers prepare to head back to town next month to try to resolve how to finance transportation projects, it is looking increasingly like the special session might repeat of the pattern of the past two years.

That pattern goes something like this: Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), backed by some Democratic lawmakers, pushes a big tax increase. House Republicans, most of whom have little connection to heavily congested Northern Virginia, kill the proposal. Lawmakers leave town knowing full well it's only a matter of time before they return to repeat the entire exercise.

At the start of the year, Virginia and national Democrats had high hopes that the state's 13 electoral votes could be up for grabs in the Nov. 4 presidential election.

But as the fight between Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) grinds on, it's starting to feel as though the Democratic prospects in Virginia might be slipping away.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), the presumptive GOP nominee, should be an early favorite to win the state, and he probably grows a bit stronger every week there is not a Democratic nominee.

The hottest contest at the Virginia Republican Party convention next month might not be the one between Del. Robert G. Marshall and former governor James S. Gilmore for the nomination for Senate.

It could be the battle for state party chairman, which has taken a nasty turn and exposed a generational divide within the party.

As the political establishment reels over a bad case of deja vu, lawmakers are struggling to figure out what to do in the recurring battle over how to raise more money for transportation.

The state Supreme Court's Feb. 29 decision to toss out the regional taxing authorities in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, a cornerstone of last year's transportation deal, could soon lead to political chaos.

But as Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and House and Senate leaders consider whether they can come up with a solution, a big question remains unresolved:

Has the window for addressing transportation closed?

Senate Democrats apparently have selective memory.

On Saturday, the Democratic caucus sent out a statement heralding its role in repealing the unpopular abusive driving fees. The statement noted that House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) and then Senate Majority Leader Walter A. Stosch (R-Henrico) stood together in July to defend the fees.

"Meanwhile, Democratic Senators were mounting efforts to repeal the legislation," the statement said.

But the statement failed to mention that Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) - who bolstered public opposition to the driving fee law by excluding out-of-state drivers - also stood with Howell and Stosch at that press conference. In fact, Kaine's role at the event was far more influential than the one played by Stosch.

Kaine, who has since changed his position, declared at the time the fees "affect poor drivers, not poor people."

Sen. Barack Obama didn't just beat Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Virginia Democratic primary Feb..12. He defeated her so handily that Virginia politicians running for Congress or statewide office might want to study the results for clues about their political futures.

Obama's 28-point margin of victory was one of the largest percentage-point wins in recent history by a candidate in a supposedly competitive statewide primary or general election.

The positioning for lieutenant governor and attorney general is just beginning in advance of the 2009 statewide election.

Here are some of the people mentioned by pundits as possible candidates for attorney general. Look for a similar discussion of possible candidates for lieutenant governor in the coming weeks.

After they won control of the state Senate last month, Virginia Democrats were confident about their potential for future success, even in Republican-leaning areas.

But it took only a month for reality to set in. In many parts of Virginia, voters continue to have strong affection for Republicans.

To figure out James S. Gilmore III's campaign strategy in next year's U.S. Senate race, one only has to listen to him for a few minutes.

In an interview with reporters at the Virginia Republican Party retreat last weekend, Gilmore stressed that former governor Mark R. Warner, the likely Democratic nominee for Senate, won't be on the ballot by himself.

"My strategy is defeating a Clinton-Warner ticket," said Gilmore, who is assuming that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York will be the Democratic nominee for president. "It will be Hillary Clinton together with Mark Warner, and at that point, people's opinion about the ticket will change."

The annual Virginia Republican Party Advance is the ultimate venue for schmoozing, jockeying for attention and laying the groundwork for future bids for office. So here's my take on the winners and losers of this weekend's event, which drew about 650 party activists and leaders to the Hyatt Regency at Crystal City.

Advance Winners -

Attorney General Bob McDonnell - The attorney general hosted a party for GOP activists on Friday and Saturday nights. Both were well attended, and there were plenty of people throughout the weekend wearing "Bob McDonnell" stickers. There also was a strong sentiment from GOP activists that McDonnell should run for governor in 2009, even if former governor and senator George Allen enters the race.

George Allen - While Allen wasn't nearly as visible as McDonnell was, the former governor and senator gave what many considered to be a strong, inspiring speech in support of Fred Thompson's presidential bid.

For those who can't get enough of Virginia elections, time to look ahead to the governor's race in 2009.

Yes, there is a U.S. Senate and presidential election next November. But with former governor Mark R. Warner (D) an early favorite to win the Senate race, the election for governor will be the contest that will really decide whether Virginia is turning blue or if party gains this decade were caused largely of President Bush's unpopularity.

RICHMOND- Here are the answers to the election questions asked in the Oct. 25 Virginia Notebook after Democrats won the four seats needed to reclaim control of the state Senate and also make inroads in the House of Delegates.

Q Can a Republican still win inside the Beltway?

A Maybe. With Democrat Margaret G. Vanderhye's victory over Republican David M. Hunt for the seat of retiring Del. Vincent F. Callahan Jr. (R-Fairfax), there will be no elected Republican state official next year representing an inside-the-Beltway district. Hunt lost by just 540 votes, however. In Alexandria, Del. David L. Englin (D) beat Republican challenger Mark S. Allen by nearly 2 to 1. Even so, I wouldn't write off a Republican candidate's chance to someday prevail in Arlington, Alexandria or Fairfax.

With the Nov..6 election less than two weeks away, here are some questions raised by the races throughout the state. Answers will appear in the next Virginia Notebook, which will be published Nov..15.

Q. Can a Republican still win inside the Beltway? Retiring Del. Vincent F. Callahan Jr. (R-Fairfax) is the last Republican elected official representing a district that is mainly inside the Capital Beltway. Republican Dave Hunt and Democrat Margaret G. Vanderhye are vying to replace Callahan. If Vanderhye wins, it will complete the Democrats' 30-year effort to purge Alexandria, Arlington County and inner Fairfax County of Republican officeholders

Virginia Republicans had a scare during the fall of 2004 when some polls showed Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry surprisingly close to President Bush in the campaign for the state's 13 electoral votes.

GOP leaders and activists rallied to Bush's side, ramping up the party's get-out-the-vote campaign and redoubling efforts to paint the Massachusetts senator as a Northeastern liberal who was out of step with the state's conservative reputation. On Election Day, it wasn't even close. Virginia went for Bush over Kerry by 9 percent.

Some Virginia Republicans, however, have been regretting that day ever since.