The Wiz are where they should be: 6-9. No amount of scoring can compensate for the 4-year strike that Etan and Brendan have couarageously waged against rebounds, blocks and consistency.

They should let Ernie Grunfeld pick the jersey colors. His eye for talent is the best in the organization.

IC, please have this blog moved to where people can find it...

Like you said, it depends on the health of our big three. I watched a lot of those games last year and they could have won many of them, it was very frustrating to watch because it seemed like they ALWAYS let teams back in it when they seemingly had them won. This year will be different, deep bench and Caron is starting.

48 Wins and 4th in the East.

Kidd and D-Wade/Shaq always seems to give them a lot of problems, and any team with a decent big man. Good thing this is the East. I still think they are pretty close to Cleveland, you might not like him but Lebron is a beast.

If Haywood decides to show up consistently on the defensive side and people stay healthy this could change for the better.

The Wizards will be second in the Southeast, because they still can't beat the Heat. I am worried a little about Orlando, because we are still kind of weak up front, and Dwight Howard is a rebounding monster. U lose games in the league if you can't rebound. Haywood, Ruffin and Thomas have to do a better job of boxing out. I do feel we are deeper than last year, so that's good. In the East, I feel we will be 4th or 5th in the playoff seeding.

John Hollinger, "ESPN Insider" on espn.com, has the following to say about the Wizards' chances this year:

"Even in the dilapidated East, I think it's more likely than not that this team misses the playoffs entirely, with an extended absence from one of the five core players being a key reason."

He makes a point, I guess. He also says this in the same team preview:

"Haywood is a vastly underrated defensive center"

Does anyone know if Mr. Hollinger won the date contest with Brenda? And what a date that must have been!

My point is that the people who make these predictions for every team are at best uninformed, and at worst obviously stupid. These are the same people telling you Kwame is poised for a breakout.

I'm still kinda annoyed that Blatche hasn't gotten the quality PT in real games. He coulda gotten 5-10 mins in the middle of games in the latter part of last season. Giving him the last few mins of a game that's already decided won't tell us anything about him, because even if he gives it his all, there are 9 other guys on the court that know the game's outcome is decided. Let Blatche do his thing when it matters in the game. He's certainly got the frame and athletic ability to be a sick SF or PF, depending on where he fits in this lineup. I understand letting go of Party John Ramos; he didn't seem build, seemed to be as fragile as a 7'5'' guy can get.

what's your take guys?

1) K-Man, good to see you on the Wiz blog. I like your work on the Skins blog.

2) I've been saying this all along: The Wiz are no better than last year and will be fighting for that 6-8 spot.

3) The Pacers are going to be nasty. They will grab the #2 or #3 seed. Mark it down.

4) IC, I agree with my boy Ledell Eckles (even though his game has inspired thousands to take up other sports). You have got get this thing where people can always find it! The knowledge is too tight for the 6 of us!

5) I was so hyped about Hayes when he was at UGA and he has lied to me. He promised me so much and has let me down. Every time I read the: "if Jarvis Hayes can stay healthy" line I want to stab my thighs. Do not count on him.

6) It is nice that we got Stevenson on the cheap but there is a reason that dude was available. I'm old school, so myabe I'm outdated, but I always believed that shooting guards should be able to SHOOT. That dude couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat. (Note: He still will never be as bad offensively as 'ared 'effries. I call him that because he has no 'J')

7) 7 seed, and we have to go play either Miami or Indiana and get our clocks cleaned. Early in the season, when we are still giving up 105 a night you'll see the following quotes:

"We just have to get back to playing good defense"

"We have the players to do it, we're just not getting it done right now."

8) I would trade my co-worker who I am friendly with to the Russians for a serviceable big.

Out.

i love the wiz and i would like nothing better for them but to at least beat miami once!they still have brenda and ellen,i mean brendan and etan in the soft middle,so until this is addressed,4-6.i wish they could have gotten big ben back.

We need a lot more discussion of these alternative unis... and the unis in genreal for that matter. They are the blandest unis in the league, and I can't believe they haven't changed them one bit since the 90s. The alternates are just over the top.

What irks me is that Abe said they were changing the team name (and the unis) because the name Bullets evoked violence. Well then how do they justify playing in the Bullets throwbacks?

The other motive for changing the name (which they'll never admit) was to spruce up merchandise sales. Well if that was the reason, then why haven't they changed to better looking, better selling unis over the past decade? Ironically, with the throwback fad, the old Bullets unis far out sell the current Wiz unis.

So basically we're left with a worse nickname and the unis still don't sell.

Gilbert's quote in the paper today about needing to go back to red, white and blue was right on the money. Glad to know the players hate the unis too.

Hello, Abe, are you listening?

PS - The road unis need to say "Washington" instead of "Wizards."

Why should anyone believe this team will finish higher than 6th in the East with their current lineup? Unless Blatche is ready to log some serious PT, the players the Wiz currently have at PF and C don't play offense, defense, or rebound. When Ruffin is in there, its basically like playing 4 on 5 (although he's a shoo-in for NBA Cranium of the Year).

You can't win against good teams without stopping their offense.

more player comments on new unis here...

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2006/10/thoughts_on_gold_unis.html

GWiz is right on. These new unis are trifflin'. This is the nations capital for f sake. Why they gotta dress em up looking like a Liberace fan club? Bring back the red, white, and blue unis with Washington across the chest. My vote would be for three: the red, white, blue, the money orange from last year, and an all black uni. Rotate those three, and for christ sake, get rid of the god awful blue or torquoise mess.

Good old Steinberg, always advertising on the cheap.

I think the new uni's are horrible. Everyone knows that gold only goes with burgundy.

I voted for the Sea Dogs!

Good old Steinberg, always advertising on the cheap.

I think the new uni's are horrible. Everyone knows the gold only goes with burgundy.

I voted for the Sea Dogs!

I still don't know why we didn't go after Big Ben - can you imagine how well he woul dhave worked with this team.....But Gilbert is the absolute sole of the Wizards.....a funnky duck, but an absolute original with a work ethic that you have to respect. Nice to have a player I can take my son to see and not be ashamed he's on the team.

All of the ESPN.com commentators have us missing the playoffs due to injuries including Chad "the regurgitator" Ford(thanks P Vescey) But I look at this team and see that when C Butler starts this is a 50 win caliber team especially with the deeper bench.

There's an interesting contradiction I noticed. When DeShawn Stevenson was signed, everyone trumpeted his defensive prowess. But I notice that in the SI NBA Preview issue, an opposing scout claims that Stevenson "isn't that good a defender". What gives?

Ivan,
As to the Wiz's 10-18 record in close games last season versus their 20-13 mark two seasons back, I'm convinced that it is due to losing Larry Hughes and Eddie's decision not to play a center in crunch time. When Gil and Larry were both on the floor at the end of a game, defenses were kept guessing as either of them could take it to the rack and convert. Last season when we were down a bucket at the end, it felt like the same play every time - Gilbert from the top of the key. Everyone knew it was coming, and it's a credit to Gil that he could pull off as many wins as he did. Unless we start designing a significant number of plays for Caron in clutch time, I see us winding up in the same spot.
Also, while I recognize that Brendan and Etan may not be offensive powerhouses, they are both serviceable defenders. Eddie has to be willing to keep somebody taller than 6-9 on the floor if we're going to be able to defend the rim in the fourth quarter.

Indiana finishing in the top six? Please. Have our thier team will be in jail by the end of the year. My understanding of the Jackson incident is that he was protecting himself but it is not a good sign when he and his two teammates are carrying guns to tha club.

Note to Jackson:

You are a millionaire! Don't go to shady clubs where people might be willing to run you over with thier car and GET A BODYGUARD!

Not make the playoffs? Ridiculous, posted by morons trying to sell something besides intelligence. This team could sleep walk to the playoffs. What I want to know is what are they going to do when they get there. That is when defense counts. And enough about Haywood being week in the middle. Defense is a team thing. He has been asked to clean up the mess left by "the Matador" defense played by Arenas and Antwain. You want defense, then give some noise to those two about trying to play it consistently. Haywood is inconsistent. They are never there are defesne since Hughes left. Talk is cheap, let's see what those two do.

Digging all of the feedback. On finding the blog: you can always access it under the Wizards tab on the left side of the front page on the web site. Look for Wizards Insider. I know, it's kind of confusing so I'll try to get it put in a more obvious place.

The proof is in the pudding, as Bill Cosby used to say.

Bernard, are you sure you want Hall to make the squad? Lang and Mason are locks and Taylor played well last year?

If not B. Wallace, Tyson Chandler would have been a nice pick-up. Even if Chandler was from the evil bulls squad that is now our rival. I can't wait for Arenas to torch Hinrich on some World Championship payback ALL season.

The team's record in close games is really telling, in my opinion. The Wizards had a won-loss margin of a 46 win team last year, while they had a won-loss margin of a 40 win team in 2005. As much as poor coaching and predictability at the end of games play a role, I don't think a team goes from being one of the best in close games to one of the worst without some dumb luck involved. For example, if we talk about Game 3 against Cleveland, the Wizards did everything they possibly could on LeBron's bucket, but he still got it into the hoop. If we're talking Game 6, there's no way Arenas misses those two free throws in any other spot. Stuff that like can't always be explained rationally.

A team's record in close games can change dramatically from season-to-season and in the middle of the year. The Milwaukee Bucks are a great example. They started the year 13-0 in close games, allowing them to race off to a 17-11 start. In the second half of the season, however, the pendilum swung in the complete opposite direction. The Bucks finished the year 7-13 in close games, and went 23-29 after the 17-11 start despite a better point differential.

My point is that, even if no plays are run for Butler, and the Wizards remain relatively predictable at the end of games, their record will improve simply because luck tends to even out. When you consider that this was a 46-win team based on point differential, the Wizards were actually better last season than in 2005 despite winning fewer games.

I expect the Wizards to be better this year with Stevenson and Songalia in the fold and with Butler emerging as a real threat offensively. As such, I see Washington having 50 expected wins, with a slight margin for error in either direction. Put me down for a 50-32 season.

-Bullets Fever
bulletsfever.blogspot.com

Something I'm wondering with that close games W/L margin is whether it really means something, or whether it is like 1-run games in MLB--in the long run it is just a matter of dumb luck. A team that is "clutch" one year can be mediocre or worse the following year in close games, even without personnel changes. I sure hope so, anyway.

I've talked myself into the Wiz having a shot at the 3-seed (or even better if LBJ or DWade get hurt or worn out following their busy summer).

Ivan - thanks for stopping by the site. ;)

This is approximately the same team as last year. The only player who might have some upside is Jarvis Hayes if he can manage to stay healthy. The Wiz are still stuck with two stiffs at the center position and until that changes I don't see a whole lot of improvement beyond the .500 level.

I second JC's comments above about Jordan's propensity to go small at the end of games as a reason for the team's poor record in close games. Don't know if anyone caught it, but NBATV ran Game 6 of last season's Wiz-Cavs series the other night. Wiz were up by about 7 with a little over 2 minutes left, and of course Jordan was going small with Arenas, Daniels, Jeffries, Butler and Jamison (no center and no real PF in that bunch). The Cavs were driving to the hole like it was a layup drill. Now, when you are up in the final minutes, you do need to factor in free throw shooting, which is one reason having Songalia around will be great. But Songalia is a PF at best, and no one driving to the hole is worried about Songalia launching his shot into the second row.
Ivan: Here's a question for you. Jeffries was the only one in the group mentioned above that could block shots. With him gone, how will Jordan go small this year? He has already said that he thinks Ruffin and Songalia can play minutes at center (ugh), so is that what he has in mind for ends of games?

Digging all of the feedback. On finding the blog: you can always access it under the Wizards tab on the left side of the front page on the web site.

The where on the what on the who? I flunked web development in high school...

"Check it out at http://www.zerotwohero.com. Right now it's filled with adidas stuff, but once the season gets started I'm going to have my Gilbert line. I have a pair of my signature shoes, and I can't believe I got my own shoe. That's amazing! They're the Gil Zeros. I had a thousand names for them. I think the new name is Agent Zero. Oh that's hot. Whoever made that "Agent Zero" up gets a percentage."

Heheh. Who made that up?

Gil's got a blog on NBA.com, and it's pretty entertaining (what did you expect?):

http://www.nba.com/blog/gilbert_arenas.html

I'm sitting here reading some of your post, wondering if some of you are truly Wizard fans. First of all if the team has gone to the playoffs two years in a row, done nothing major to break team chemistry and are not experienceing any injuries to date from any chore players, how can some of you justify saying this team won't make the playoffs or will be seated lower than 4th in the upcoming season. See here is where the problem lies. The sixth player on the court, the fan. This team finally has something to be proud of and some of you so-called fans only want to make cracks about Brendan and Etan. You would be amazed how much more POWERFUL your players can become with SUPPORT from the sixth player. Stop complaining about what you have because I promise you alot of organizations around the league wish they had the talent this team has. Go out and make that arena MCI center a place that the opposition hates to play in because of wild and crazy Wizard fans that are on there feet from the start of the game to the end. Learn how to be REAL FANS support your team when they are up by 15 pts as well as down by 15pts. If you people truly understand the power a Fan real fans can make this team will their way easily to win 55 games. Because they already win 40 or more without your support until the last few minutes of a game.

WILL THE REAL WIZARD FAN'S STAND UP AND BE HEARD!!!!!!!!!!

Wiz fans are too neurotic to think positively. That's why they write the stuff you see here. I close my eyes & think they are almost like New Yorkers!

Anyhow: I think they are keeping Lang & Mason of the 4 mentioned in Sat's article.

Good post derrick. Too much negativity going on in the blog. Stevenson looks like an animal out there and Songalia will help alot. Having jarvis back is a bonus. Dude is gonna put up 10-13 pts off the bench and play D as well. Blatche is gonna contribute more than he did last year. If Phoenix can win 60 games last year and play NO DEFENSE!!! Im pretty sure we can win 49-52 games and play half the D they did we'll be alright.

Dear Bulllet fans, Have no fear when I take over the team im changing the name back to the Bullets, re-establish the red/white/blue uniforms, and occasionally break out the Orange uni's so Gilbert can wear his Orange shoes to match.
Sincerely, Teddy Leonsis

The 10-18 stat in close games has less to do with the Wizards defense and more to do by the way the refs call games against the Wizards.

I can already think of at least 5 games which were strongly decided by calls against the Wizards.

This team doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from the refs.

Another comment:

People say this is the same old team from last year.

If that's true, then that's great news because this was a 50 win team last year (winning percentage with Caron Butler a starter projected over 82 games).

Its amazing that some Wizards fans can be as ignorant as the so called media experts.

Your "same old team" was a darn good team last year. Do you think the refs will let Lebron get away with travelling again? Do you think Arenas may get a little more respect in end of game situation?

Look out people, forget all the hype your hearing about all the other teams, you've got a real solid team in DC that's going to make some noise.